Bernie is gaining with key demographics BUT ...

According to
theguardian

A string of polls over the past two weeks show that the once-independent Vermont senator is tied or in the lead in the two early primary states, Iowa and New Hampshire, and all of a sudden, in striking distance of Hillary Clinton nationally.

(My bolding)
...

Digging deeper into the numbers shows even more good news for Sanders: nationally, he is beating Clinton by 2-1 with voters younger than 45, and by 20 points with female voters younger than 35. In New Hampshire there is not one demographic group in which Clinton is beating Sanders. He's also made recent gains among African Americans and Hispanics - both demographics long considered Clinton strongholds.

These are key demographics and he's winning them over by sticking to the issues that matter to them, things that actually have a big impact on their lives and our lives, and ignoring the bullshit distractions of ISIS and Syria, and 9/11, 9/11, 9/11. These are voters and he's going great guns there ... BUT

He's not doing so good with the Superdelegates. These are mostly establishment Dems, the old guard, and they're not too crazy about Bernie. Right now, HRC has a 45-1 advantage over Bernie with these people. npr.org BUT, check out the details:

November 2015 Survey

Clinton: 359
Sanders: 8
O'Malley: 2
Uncommitted: 210
Not surveyed: 133

So, who the hell are they and what can we do?
The 712 superdelegates per wikipedia are

[20] Distinguished Party Leaders (current and former Presidents, Vice-Presidents, Congressional leaders, and DNC Chairs)
[20] Democratic governors (including territorial governors and the Mayor of the District of Columbia)
[47] Democratic members of the United States Senate (including Washington, DC Shadow Senators)
[193] Democratic members of the United States House of Representatives (including non-voting Delegates)
[436] Elected members of the Democratic National Committee (including the Chairs and Vice-Chairs of each state's Democratic Party)[2]

This is the anti-democratic, machine politics holdover of the Democratic Party candidate selection apparat. They are all completely isolated from the voters and vote as they damn well please, regardless of the popular vote. That, at any rate, is the plan and the purpose behind this elitist arrangement. To a degree, they are right.

The first group, Bill, Al, Debbie and all that crowd can't be touched. They no longer answer to anybody and no longer give a shit what you think, if, in fact, they ever did. The sole exception is Debbie, and we can write her off for sure.

The next 3 groups, however, can be pressured with threats not to fund their re-election campaigns and even threatening things like supporting efforts to primary them or withholding your vote from them. Those not up for re-election soon need to be told that you will remember, that it will be on your fridge and dresser top. Those hoping for higher office are subject to similar threats. Find out where your governor, Senators and Rep stand (if Dems) and give them an earful. Maybe even organize a letter or e-mail campaign to make sure that they know:
1) Bernie is the people's choice
2) They are in deep shit as to future elections if they vote the wrong way
3) You will be watching and you will follow up.

Obviously, if your Senator is a complete tool, like DiFi, you know that she won't listen or give a shit, but make at least one call or send at lest one letter anyway. Ditto Blue Dogs. No matter how much certain people on DK decry calling them conservatives, that's what they are, big time, and good luck with that, but make some sort of effort anyway.

The last group contains some people you can get to also, like your state party chair. Find out how to apply leverage to these people and do so.

WE don't really need this vestige of oligarchy, but it is there. What we therefore must do, is to try to bend all those except the "Distinguished Party Leaders" to the popular will.

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cybrestrike's picture

When HRC was claiming she had a huge lead with them in 2008, they eventually lined up behind Obama when it was clear that the race was going his way. Besides, if they supplanted the will of the primary voters if Sanders won by declaring HRC the nominee--it would literally be the floor fight to end all floor fights...and the Democratic Establishment wouldn't want that. It would lead to a schism in the party that could possibly never be repaired.

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gulfgal98's picture

and not me below.

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Do I hear the sound of guillotines being constructed?

“Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable." ~ President John F. Kennedy

enhydra lutris's picture

them a bit can't hurt.

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That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --

There would be no one voting for any Democrat on election day. The revolt would be palpable. I don't blame you for not trusting the party. I sure as hell don't. Maybe Bernie could run on the WFP. If they pulled that crap, my guess is all bets would be off.

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"Religion is what keeps the poor from murdering the rich."--Napoleon

Unabashed Liberal's picture

Presidential Debates, haven't most of the 'rules' as we've known them, been thrown out?

Seems to me that they (possibly) have.

What I'm wondering is if the Dem Party candidates actually had to sign a formal agreement 'not to run as a 3rd Party candidate.' I've read on two blogs that they did, but does anyone know for sure? (I couldn't verify it.)

I'd say that "No Labels" is coming close to succeeding at pulling off a political coup, of a sorts.

Bernie has publicly declared that he will not run as a third party candidate. But, to my knowledge, FSC has not done so. (Not sure about O'Malley.)

Anyhoo, now it makes sense 'why' Bloomberg just commissioned a poll regarding his making a Third Party run this election cycle.

If I get a chance, I'll try to post the video of billionaire Peter Ackerman, also a major financier of "Americans Elect" (and a former Michael Milken protege) making his pitch for allowing a third party candidate in the Presidential Debates, just a couple weeks ago, on C-Span.

Apparently, it worked.

I finally located my EB comment warning about this last April, and plan to repost it this coming week. These people are relentless--they are determined not to allow a populist candidate from the right, or the left, take the Presidency.

From all that I'm able to gather, this year's major push (behind the scenes, especially) for a corporatist neoliberal Third Party candidate is John Kasich. According to Jon Huntsman's daughter, Abby, Kasich's staff is basically her Dad's old staff from 2012. And, of course, Huntsman is a national co-chair of "No Labels"--along with Joe Lieberman.

Kasich's a MAJOR fiscal austerian, who has worked closely with WJC to 'balance the federal budget.' He likes to boast about receiving a quarter of the vote from the Black Community in Ohio.

It's probably not for me to say [since we're too involved in personal matters for a while, to get in the weeds on electoral politics this cycle], but, since this 'ruling' from the PDC has been made, I'd consider trying to persuade Bernie to re-think his position on running as an Independent--just in case.

Hey, Everyone have a nice afternoon!

Bye

Postcript: I may have spoken too soon--it's going to get pretty nasty (cold) here in the so-called Deep South! Everyone stay warm!

Mollie
elinkarlsson@WordPress


"It is better to practice a little, than talk a lot."--Musō Soseki
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Everyone thinks they have the best dog, and none of them are wrong.

mimi's picture

If Bernie wins, he needs to pull her into his cabinet, I think.
People's State of the Union - The Precarious State of Our Union - A Bipartisan Disaster We Can Fix

This is a time for the politics of courage, to assert the power of our vision, our values, and our numbers. It’s time to vote for our deeply held beliefs, not against what we fear. That politics of fear has delivered everything we were afraid of. All the reasons we were told to vote for the lesser evil - to avert the offshoring of our jobs, the meltdown of the climate, the expanding wars, the attack on immigrants, the assault on our civil liberties - we’ve gotten them all by the droves.

It’s time to forget the lesser evil and fight for the greater good. Because our democracy, our lives, and the future of our planet depend on it.

Together we can build a world that puts people, planet and peace over profit. The power to create this world is not in our hopes. It's not in our dreams. It’s in our hands!

-Dr. Jill Stein, January 12, 2016

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gulfgal98's picture

People of color are not Hillary's real firewall. For her and the Clinton machine, it is the super delegates. If Bernie wins the voter delegates and loses because of super delegates, there will be a real revolution and it will not be pretty. And Clinton will lose the general for sure. The Clintons are just evil people who need to be banished from the public scene forever.

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Do I hear the sound of guillotines being constructed?

“Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable." ~ President John F. Kennedy

cybrestrike's picture

...but I think you're right. POC aren't HRC's firewall. When I talking to my brother and mum about supporting Sanders over the holidays, and when talking to people in my neighborhood (I live in Parramore--east end of downtown Orlando and basically "Tha Hood") it's basically two things I hear:

1. "I'm supporting Clinton because the 1990's were awesome and Bill Clinton was a great president" (despite NAFTA, financial deregulation, welfare reform, three strikes, etc...but that's what I hear). I get this from a lot of people who vote D straight ticket and don't look back. The impeachment thing really sticks...people don't realize how powerful that was of an attractant to the Clintons.

2. "Bernie can't win! He just can't." I get this argument from a lot of the old school mainstream FDR/Kennedy/LBJ-style Democrats. My mum falls into this category. She's 65. She, like many others in this category, likes his policies but don't believe the general populace is ready (smart enough, left-leaning enough, etc) to elect a guy like Sanders.

Since Sanders has been on the mainstream media (thank goodness the corporate media blockade was lifted), POC know who he is. Bernie is out there. But knowing what he's all about is the real challenge. If he can win in Iowa and New Hampshire (it has to be both), he can demonstrate to POC that he's legit, and they'll line up behind him once South Carolina comes along. If he makes a good showing in SC, then all bets are off. But he has to win Iowa and NH. Kind of like Obama in 2008 (nobody in my community thought he was viable till he won Iowa).

If Sanders can pull the first two states off, then those arguments that I hear will evaporate. Just like they did in 2008 with Obama.

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enhydra lutris's picture

prophecy is always a killer for us. We need to go door to door teaching logic in the off season.

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That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --

gulfgal98's picture

with using anecdotal examples in commenting on this subject. It sounds like your mother is in what I call that vast group of soft support for Clinton. Those people are very persuadable and I think you are right that if Bernie wins both Iowa and NH, many will come over. We have to remember that by virtue of us being here, we are far more engaged in the process and our knowledge of the candidates than the average citizen. The more they know Bernie, the more people like what he has to say. The biggest hurdle to overcome is the false meme that Bernie is supposedly unelectable which is totally bogus based upon polling. I keep coming back to Clinton's unfavorables nationally which are over 50%.

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Do I hear the sound of guillotines being constructed?

“Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable." ~ President John F. Kennedy

enhydra lutris's picture

to go there. I do think that it can't hurt to lean on them, including pointing out what you just said.

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That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --