Bernie predicted to win all but 2 of the remaining states---

Submitted by TheJerry on Fri, 04/08/2016 - 6:32pm

PPB (Political People Blog) has a new article out detailing the work of Julian Blair, a statistician and economist from the University of New South Wales in Australia who has been closely monitoring the race here.

Statistical Analyst : Bernie Sanders Will All of The Remaining States Except Two

The key argument Blair makes to PPB is:

While a few states that could be tough for Sanders in the upcoming primaries remain, most notably Maryland and Delaware, factors such as the collapse of Clinton’s “firewall” outside of the South and his gradual exposure to the public gives Sanders a superb chance of winning every state ahead.

His most competitive state will be New York, where the balance of power between New York City, where demographics favor Clinton, and upstate New York, which seems to favor Sanders, will determine which way the scales tip in the state’s primary.

While Sanders is very likely to win California, the large number of delegates at stake and the resulting risk in Sanders’ California strategy means that his chances for the nomination is still far from assured, but also far from negligible. I predict that Sanders currently has a nearly 40% chance of winning the nomination, given current trajectories and demographics for upcoming states.

The article then goes on to give a state by state analysis and prediction of winning each state.

I have to say, personally, I'm a little surprised by some of the numbers, but then I am simply going on my gut reaction.

In particular, Blair finds CT much more favorable to Bernie than I would have thought; given it's large number of 1 Percenters. However, I do note that there are a huge number of people there that don't live in the gorgeous multi-million dollar homes that come to mind.

He also fines IN to be far more favorable than I'd have thought.

However, completely reasonably, Maryland and Delaware are the two worst states for Bernie.

Check out the article and know hope! It's a much more favorable analysis than Nate Silver, whose pro-HRC bias is severely damaging his track record. (See many other post on his HRC "House effect")

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Submitted by SnappleBC on Fri, 04/08/2016 - 6:54pm
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The Democrats Are Heading For An Open Convention

That’s worth repeating: Hillary Clinton will not clinch the nomination through primaries and caucuses.

Observers, this writer included, began to understand what the Sanders campaign had long understood, which is (a) the model for this primary race is (as we’re calling it here for the sake of simplicity) “Collapse of the Favorite,” and (b) with no clinched nomination prior to the Democratic National Convention, a contested convention in which both of two candidates make their case directly to super-delegates is inevitable.

So here’s the picture I’d like to paint for you: it’s June 7th, and the California primary has just finished. The results are in. Bernie wins. This is just another win in a long string of them: Sanders, after winning nine straight Election Days heading into New York, beat Hillary Clinton in her home state — where the second-largest haul of Democratic delegates is — 51 percent to 49 percent.

The Clinton camp responded, predictably, with just one word: “math.”

But then Sanders went on to win Pennsylvania 52 to 48, New Jersey 51 to 49, and California 54 to 46. And in between those wins he nailed down victories in Connecticut, Rhode Island, Indiana, Kentucky, West Virginia, New Mexico, Montana, North Dakota, and South Dakota. Clinton walked away with victories in Maryland, the Virgin Islands, and Guam.

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Submitted by Raggedy Ann on Fri, 04/08/2016 - 8:10pm
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I've believed we have an excellent shot at the nomination, due to the process they followed. Bernie said that the majority of states, after the south voted, would favor him, which has borne fruit. It's not just something to be hopeful for, this looks more likely, every day.

Just want to add, if you get a chance to watch or listen to the interview on Morning Joe (there's a link in the evening blues in one of the first comments), I highly recommend it and encourage you. If many Americans watched it, we will gain supporters because he's such a class act; he tells it like it is; he doesn't pull any punches; and he talks to the panel like he talks to anyone in a coffee shop, in his office, in the chamber, anywhere. It's who he is - the real deal.

edited to correct typo

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Submitted by Twain Disciple on Fri, 04/08/2016 - 7:58pm

I was so very grateful to Scarborough (there's a first!!) for explaining Bernie's stances on various gun issues for him. He gave a better answer than Bernie did! He also seconded the danger of the "too big to fail" banks.

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Submitted by gjohnsit on Fri, 04/08/2016 - 8:33pm

but Delaware and Maryland, then he'll win it all.

But that's a big IF. He has to win NY

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Submitted by Nearlynecessary on Fri, 04/08/2016 - 10:04pm
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I read an excellent diary by Steven D about how Shillary " bought" the super delegates. It is reminiscent of mafia style tactics. She made them an offer they couldn't refuse. Is there some way to shine the spotlight on this? It seems like the kind of scandal, that, if it gained traction, could really sink her campaign. And boost Bernie. Before New York votes, preferably

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Submitted by Nearlynecessary on Fri, 04/08/2016 - 10:20pm
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In 2008 I knocked on doors, phone banked, and volunteered a whole lot of my time to try to get Obama elected in the (then) red state of Colorado, in the reddest area, Colorado Springs. He did not win our county, but I like to think that my efforts helped him win the primary, and eventually the state. I know I'm brand new here, but if anyone wants to check, I was known as GWboosebag at TOP for a while. Never diaried, but left a few choice comments, and worked my ass off to get Obama into the Oval Office.

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Submitted by WindDancer13 on Fri, 04/08/2016 - 10:24pm
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This article highlights a study done on OK voters. Hint: It wasn't the millennial or the independent vote.

Analysis Dispels Some Beliefs about Voting in Oklahoma Primary

This could have implications for the remaining states that reflect the predictions in your essay.

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Submitted by betterdemsonly on Sat, 04/09/2016 - 12:03am

Bernie definitely attracts different demographics than traditional democrats. He attracts the young person part of the OFA coalition, and does even better with the young than Obama did. Where he really differs is that he attracts the red state working class whites, particulary in plains states like Kansas and Oklahoma, and in Appalachia. West Virginia is going for Bernie in a big way, and looking back on it, his Southern strategy should have emphasized, Tennessee and Kentucky, not South Carolina of all places.

The ancestors of these voters were left wing populists, who voted for FDR, but they have been trending far right for 2 decades now. Everyone, says we need these people, yet we scold them for voting against their interests. Yet, no democrat has emphasized economic issues to them, till Bernie came along. Furthermore, one could argue that wealthy Blue staters are voting against their interests too, except Obama/Clinton type dems have abandoned the traditional democratic agenda. To me this spells the basis for a realignment, if not in the democrats than in the form of a new second party. I think the republicans are dying.

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Submitted by UnBlinkingEye on Fri, 04/08/2016 - 10:31pm

Can only help. Hope Bernie has a meeting with the Pope! They seem to have some things in common.

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Submitted by WindDancer13 on Sat, 04/09/2016 - 1:20am
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Looks like Sanders is doing well.

Hillary Clinton still leads the Vermont senator in the state, 47 percent to 41 percent with 12 percent undecided, but the former secretary of state has seen only a modest, 1-point uptick since the last survey was conducted in January. Sanders, meanwhile, has jumped 6 percentage points.

From: Poll: Sanders surges in California which also has some very, very interesting information about favorability ratings, but the article is too short for two quotes.

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We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit.--Aristotle
If there is no struggle there is no progress.--Frederick Douglass