Bernie's Nevada Bump
FiveThirtyEight is now showing a significant bump in Bernie's chances to secure the nomination at the convention.
For the first time (at least to my recollection), the aggregate polling at that site shows Sanders at an average of 1,824 delegates at the end of the primary/caucus contests. Bernie had maxed out around 1,750 in the past, and was usually below that. Second-place finishers like Bloomberg or Biden were up in the 900-1,000 delegate range a few days ago, but are now in the 700-800 delegate range.
Oddly enough, the site shows Biden just barely winning South Carolina now, although he and Bernie have been swapping the lead back-and-forth for the past couple of weeks. They'll both likely come away from SC with equal delegates because it is so close.
Sanders is expected to crush in California now come SuperTuesday, which is just over a week away. His expected pledged delegate count is nearing 210, whereas a couple months ago it was in the 170 area. He should end up with 139 more delegates than expected second-place finisher Biden.
Texas should go heavily Sanders now on SuperTuesday. Bernie has a 40 delegate lead over Biden.
Bloomberg is still in second place in North Carolina and Virginia, although Bernie has an expected 15 delegate and 10 delegate lead over him in those races, respectively.
Warren is expected to finish second in Massachusetts, where Sanders should have an 11 delegate lead over her.
Klobuchar is expected to win Minnesota by 1 delegate over Sanders.
Sanders is expected to win Colorado by 26 delegates over Warren and Biden, who are essentially tied for second place. Both of them are likely to get delegates there.
Tennessee is tougher. Sanders is expected to win, but with only a 5 delegate lead over Biden.
Biden will likely win Alabama, with a 6 delegate lead over Sanders, who is almost tied with Bloomberg in that state.
Sanders is ahead of Bloomberg by 5 delegates in Oklahoma, which is actually pretty good because there aren't a ton of delegates there.
Arkansas is another close one, with Sanders expected to beat Bloomberg by 2 delegates.
Utah is a Sanders stronghold, and he is expected to win by 14 delegates there over Warren and Bloomberg.
Bernie also is expected to take Maine by 7 delegates over both Bloomberg and Warren.
He will also probably take all the delegates in Vermont--16 in total. Buttigieg is Bernie's main competition there, and Buttigieg may pick up a delegate if Bernie has an off day.
In American Samoa, Bernie and Biden are pretty much neck-and-neck, with Bernie expected to win by a single delegate.
Sanders will destroy everyone in Michigan, with a 39 delegate lead over second place Biden.
That's what is expected through SuperTuesday. Bernie may lose 4 states, and perhaps the American Samoa territory, but he is expected to win 12 states including all the big ones. In the states he might lose, he will essentially tie in 3 of them, as well as in American Samoa--so in those contests it is not such a big deal. He might end up winning some of those as well.
Also, note what has happened over the past week--since the debate and since Nevada. Biden is replacing Bloomberg as a likely second-place finisher, with the net effect of depressing all of Bernie's competition's delegates as Bloomberg loses steam. Buttigieg has not made inroads.
Remember, 1,990 delegates are needed to win the first-round voting at the convention. At an average now of 1,824, with second-place Biden at only 817, it's gonna be very difficult for the DNC to justify not nominating Sanders as the Democratic nominee for president in 2020. Also, for those still despairing, remember that as Sanders wins more and more states and it becomes obvious that he is the front runner, the more likely that votes for other candidates will be depressed and their constituency will not turn out or will choose to support the front runner.
In other words--excepting some disaster--Bernie can only go up from here.