While the stock market gets the headlines, people in the know are watching the bond market.

The bond market — not a plunging stock market — is the talk of Wall Street Wednesday with prices tumbling and yields spiking, unusual action during times when fears of a recession are growing and fixed income is usually relied on as a safe haven from turmoil elsewhere.

The 10-year Treasury note yield jumped 11 basis points to 4.37% and at one point overnight climbed above 4.51%. The yield has rebounded beyond where it was the day before President Donald Trump’s tariff plan was unveiled last Wednesday and is currently at the highest since February. As recently as last week, the 10-year yield, which helps decide rates on mortgages, credit card debt and auto loans, was below 3.9%.

It's a no-brainer - when the stock market crashes investors flee to a safe-haven asset, and nothing is safer than a Treasury bond.

As global equity markets nosedive amid Donald Trump’s tariff wars, a surprising shift is taking place in one of the world’s most trusted safe-haven assets: US Treasuries.

Traditionally seen as a reliable refuge in times of financial turmoil, Treasuries are now exhibiting atypical behaviour. They are rising, not falling.

In periods of geopolitical and economic uncertainty, investors usually flee risky assets like stocks for the safety of bonds, driving yields lower. This time, the opposite is happening.

If both stocks and bonds are going down at the same time then we are in real trouble. The question is why this is happening.

Behind the scenes, U.S. Treasury yields have been rising sharply — not during the trading day, but overnight, when foreign markets are active. These overnight spikes are more than just market noise. They may be the clearest signal yet that China is quietly — but deliberately — selling U.S. Treasuries. And the implications could be significant for the U.S. economy and financial markets.
China has long been one of the largest holders of U.S. government debt, peaking at over $1.3 trillion a decade ago. Today, those holdings have fallen to just $759 billion, the lowest level since 2009. While that trend has been in place for years, recent events suggest an acceleration in sales — and the timing may not be coincidental.
Just this week, the U.S. imposed a 125% tariff on Chinese goods, intensifying already fraught trade tensions. Hours later, the yield on the 10-year Treasury jumped from 4.1% to 4.5% — and it didn’t happen during U.S. trading hours. It happened in the dark, between 8 p.m. and 3 a.m. ET, when Beijing was open for business.

If I was China i would do the exact same thing. Here's the thing - people have been selling Treasuries since Trump got elected. I don't see any nation coming in to scoop up what China is selling.