There's Trouble on the Horizon
"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children wake up homeless on the continent their Fathers conquered."
-Thomas Jefferson
As a former hippie I am pretty cynical when it comes to "The Man," and as the son of a goldbug I was taught to see the underlying machinations that created the basis for my mistrust.
Nearly everybody you ask will say that the world flounders around haphazardly on a 100 year timeline, with seemingly random events changing the course of history. I say there are people who do plan and scheme and push the 100 year cycles. We've gone from Robber Barons, to 1950's naivete, to our current state of systemic corruption. As if they pulled one scam and then waited for all the victims to die off before trying it again.
Some say there's no such thing as a conspiracy theory. But what is a conspiracy? It's two or more people secretly planning to do something illegal. Most illegal acts that are committed by 2 or more people are conspiracies by definition.
Whether it's an "invisible hand," a Bilderberg retreat, or just Sunday dinner at the Rothschilds estate, I'm sure there's been more than one discussion on how to capitalize on, or even push these long term trends. And I think there's been a concerted effort to create corruption for the past 70 years.
What were the factors that led to the inflation which caused Nixon to abondon the gold standard? Were they man made? Of course, everything is.
Not many people know that the Federal Reserve Bank is privately owned by the aforementioned Rothschilds family.
I could cite a litany of egregious criminal behavior committed by our largest multinational and investment banks. Money laundering, market manipulation, heck even a ship carrying 20 tons of cocaine. Clearly they believe they have grown too big and powerful for reproach. They scoff at the law while they give a patronizing smile and continue doing their illegal stuff.
We bailed out one banking collapse not long ago, and now here comes another one.
It used to be easy money. It was called the 3-6-3 rule: You borrow money at 3%, loan it out at 6%, and you're on the golf course by 3:00 p.m. But now that party is over. Interest rates for Treasury Repurchase agreements (Repo Market Interest Rates) popped 4x last week. This is the canary in the coalmine as it indicates high levels of mistrust among the banking elite.
An inverted yield curve and negative interest rates paint a landscape where the Repo situation blends in unnoticed. And that's here in the states, observers note that the EU is ahead of us in this respect. Whispers are that Deutsche Bank is teetering on the brink of collapse.
This could all have been avoided. The causes of the 2008 collapse are well known, and not only have they been repeated but they have been compounded. It really is beyond the pale and it's just begging for another round of trust busting.
Blurring the line between criminal behavior and professional negligence, the banksters have used the latter as an excuse for the former. It's almost an art form that they have created the crises which cause them to act illegally.
They will not cease their criminal enterprise until every last penny has been extracted from American households. If you got caught underwater on your home value in 2009 that was just a taste of things to come.
And what's to come? I don't mean to be alarmist. I try to keep a cool headed perspective on these things. For years we predicted a mortgage derivatives crisis and uncoiling of silver and gold shorts, then it finally happened in the last decade. The same voices that warned of the last collapse are predicting something even worse on the horizon.
The unstoppable eventuality which will change life for every American is when oil producers transition to a non-dollar denominated oil trade. The dollar will not be the world's reserve currency in 50 years. The writing is on the wall. The only question is how the corrupt and unethical will capitalize on this event.
The dollar will lose its value. Their game is to prevent you from preserving your capital. They will rob you of every safe haven.
Which is not to say you are corrupt and unethical if you profit off of the upcoming financial upheaval. No, I refer above to the people who have been placing the dominos.
I have game theoried out the pending financial collapse based on ways the powerful and corrupt could fleece a nation. This is how I think it will play out. Of course the usual disclaimer applies: This is not financial advice. I hope it provides a cheap financial education and prevents a more costly one.
Let's recap the pressure points:
1) Negative Interest Rates will force people away from fiat investments.
Soon, banks will charge you to store your money there. When that happens people will seek an alternative economic system and store of value.
2) Repo Interest Rates increase indicate a higher lending risk.
3) American manufacturing has been in decline since June.
4) American unemployment is up, but household income is flat. More jobs, but it is low paying, unskilled work at the Dollar Tree and the 7Eleven. Now both mom and dad are working. Remember today's economy took 70 years to build.
5) Low interest rates have artificially inflated the Real Estate market.
Home flipping is at a peak, and so is lending for home flipping. All signs that the last drops of equity are being squeezed out of the system. These are the glory days.
By the way, I'm not even going to go into houosehold debt. You get the picture. And it's also possible that political rivalries in the U.S. are willing to burn the house down in order to change the status quo.
Remember in any market there is just as much to be made on the way down as on the way up. The banksters sold us a bill of goods on the way up, and they will charge us for it on the way down.
We've already completed step one which was to pump real estate, and stagnate household income to force people into higher debt.
I'm trying hard not to say a run on BTC is imminent, but I will say I think it will precede the other events which I see as an eventuality. I've come to envision these events
First, I think negative interest rates will cause a run on Bitcoin and gold. Then, as the rally begins to peak the stock market will heat up, and the stock market will be peaking just as Bitcoin suffers some harsh pullbacks. Desperate money will flow into the Stock Market and then they will both fall precipitously. Leveraged futures will short the gold market despite growing physical demand and crush everyone who has overextended their long position.
During this time a flight to cash is likely despite the negative rates, but then repeated banking failure will put the economy through the wringer and place the financial burden on the FDIC - "Privatize the profits, socialize the costs." This banking failure, along with a mortgage meltdown, will test the solvency of the United States Treasury.
There will be a brief period when Bitcoin once again becomes ridiculed as its price gets dragged through the gutter, but eventually, cryptocurrency will emerge as the standard for the remainder of the 21st Century and beyond.
Comments
I don't have a crystal ball...
but I see this upcoming intersection of the accelerating collapse of capitalism and fiat money, the ecosystem (environmental destruction and species extinction), and the climate. It is not a pretty scenario.
I can imagine an alternative vision of decentralized largely self sustaining communities living in harmony and peace with one another and the planet. Sadly I think that vision requires a more evolved species than humans.
As to your economic advice. I've been putting spare money into gold....but money won't buy you love. Treasure every day. Thanks for the predictions.
“Until justice rolls down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream.”
You might want to rethink gold
https://www.outerplaces.com/science/item/17778-700-quintillion-dollar-as...
Gold is basically worthless now that we have found a very large asteroid loaded with it.
So much for the gold standard.
Good List!
One more...
Once the coming recession hits, Fortune 500 companies that have borrowed hand over fist to inflate their stock prices through buybacks will be staring at bankruptcy as loan repayments outpace revenues.
The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?
All of this is way over my head.
Though I certainly grasp the main theme.
Honest question: should we be withdrawing our dollars from the bank -- even if it's a credit union -- and stuffing the cash into the mattress?
I don't have much savings to begin with, and would like to avoid being robbed of it by those who don't need it, and who certainly haven't lifted a finger to earn it.
(Of course, I know this is how runs on banks are born ... and I know that if the dollar is devalued it probably doesn't matter either way. I just can't suss out what the best strategy is for those of us who stand to get screwed, again).
I'm no expert, but from what I have read
Credit unions are safe from the upcoming bank bail in for now. But when enough people keep their cash at home the PTB will go to a cashless system and force you to put in the banks. Unless you deal with bitcoin. I think. But the bank bail in was written by congress during Obama's tenure. This means that they can take your money you have in a bank and repay their loans with it before they have to use their own money. Do a search for bank bail ins and you get some answers.
Of course you have to be careful with how much of your money you take out at one time. The IRS has plenty of agents to monitor every person who isn't rich which we just found out. Funny how rich assholes can park millions and billions overseas without them blinking an eye. The Sacklers have been transferring billions out so the lawsuits against them can't take it for their role in the opioid epidemic. Will the bankruptcy judge allow it to stand?
Hey...remember when companies got to bring back the money they were holding offshore with a tax holiday? Guess who okay 'd that? Obummer of course and that's why he's getting paid $400,000 a speech. Payment for what he did whilst he was president. Good gig huh?
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated communist, but people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists.
~Hannah Arendt
Well ...
He was the Bestest. President. Evah.
Or some shit.
There's no point in taking money out
...of the bank if you are going to continue to hold it as paper currency. The US is in no danger of running out of paper. But keeping a stash of cash at home is a good idea.
One all purpose emergency strategy people use is buying a bag of junk silver that they hold at home. Junk silver is US silver coins minted before 1964. They are circulated and have no value as collector coins. Junk silver is sold in bags based on the face value of the coins, so there are $50 bags on up to $1,000 bags. Of course, a bag costs more than it's face value. Price is based on the weight of the silver. But in case of an emergency, the coins are super easy to spend or barter with. When silver is $20 an ounce, a dime is worth about $1.44 and a silver quarter is worth about $3.60. You can use silver coins to buy US Dollars at any coin store. If there were an long term emergency, the silver spot price would shoot up, and bag would be worth much more.
You can buy bags of Junk Silver where you live. Buy and sell prices are based on spot prices and may change daily. Learn more HERE and HERE.
Thanks for the info
This is good to know about for when the poo starts flying. My mom gave me a bunch of silver dollars but I don't know if they are worth anything? Guess it depends on the year they were made?
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated communist, but people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists.
~Hannah Arendt
they're worth their weight in silver.
most likely she gave you 1922 liberty dollars, you could get $15 - $20 apiece for them.
The earth is a multibillion-year-old sphere.
The Nazis killed millions of Jews.
On 9/11/01 a Boeing 757 (AA77) flew into the Pentagon.
AGCC is happening.
If you cannot accept these facts, I cannot fake an interest in any of your opinions.
4 of them are from 1972
But two of them are from 1882. Yep 1882. They look foreign to me. I can't tell about the others cuz they are in plastic cases I can't open.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated communist, but people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists.
~Hannah Arendt
"foreign" how? are they indeed "dollars"?
The 1882s are most likely US Morgans, if it's got a lady's head on it and "E Pluribus Unum". They're most likely worth 20 to 40 bucks, depending on condition. The 1972s should be a Eisenhower dollars, and are probably only worth a dollar, maybe 2, though I guess there's a small probability that they're worth about $5 (it's complicated).
The ones in the plastic containers are most likely 1922 Liberty dollars (also called "Peace" dollars). I'm surprised you can't open the holders, that's a bit weird.
The earth is a multibillion-year-old sphere.
The Nazis killed millions of Jews.
On 9/11/01 a Boeing 757 (AA77) flew into the Pentagon.
AGCC is happening.
If you cannot accept these facts, I cannot fake an interest in any of your opinions.
You are right on both counts
It's a lady's head on two of them and the others have Eisenhower's on it. I didn't work too hard on opening the plastic ones cuz of my fingernails, but I used a knife and got it opened.
Thanks for the info.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated communist, but people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists.
~Hannah Arendt
Whoops.
Wish I'd have seen this thread before this:
Um .... too late now of course, but I don't think you should have opened them. Those coins were probably numismatic collectables. If so, them being in those plastic containers was very important. Was is the operative word. It's quite possible you just cost yourself a large chunk of change by taking them out of those cases. Sorry.
Before my divorce, I put a good chunk of money into numismatic gold coins. All of them were in clear plastic cases and had been rated/evaluated by various companies that set standards for that kind of thing. I lost them all when I got divorced. Quite a few of them were worth thousands each, but worth much less if they were out of the containers.
Whoops indeed
If I still have the plastic containers will that help or is there a seal that shouldn't be broken?
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated communist, but people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists.
~Hannah Arendt
Best left intact
Well, it might help if you know which coin came from which container.
Can you tell me about any information that may have been printed inside each container? If you're lucky, there was nothing there at all. In that case, the coins had not been graded by a professional grading service. If there was, you stand to lose.
Don't handle the coins
and don't attempt to wipe them off or clean them. Just pop them back in the case and put a rubber band around it. Didn't the case have writing on it? They may not have been graded. Do they look brand new or worn a bit? You should be fine. Only rare Morgan's are worth more than $30 or so. I have some of those, too. Not from the 1800s though.
are we talking about one coin per container,
or something more like a roll? how many coins are we talking about?
since you couldn't actually SEE the coins inside the plastic, I was assuming you were talking about a roll made of ordinary translucent high-density polyethylene (think: tupperware) -- which almost certainly wouldn't include anything particularly collectible. if each coin was in its own plastic case ... well, i've never seen those in anything except crystal clear cases, since there's no virtue in having it set apart if you can't know what's in it. shades of shrodinger.
as Plutes observes below, with the somewhat peculiar pejorative "junk silver", ordinary silver coins are valuable for the exact and only reason they ever were valuable -- they contain a certified quantity of a precious metal. i'm not into the whole survivalist thing, but they're exactly what you want in "an emergency", because they are reasonably certain to hold value and to be accepted in ordinary exchange. "collectible" anything is of little predictable value in the context of a short-term or long-term implosion of the day-to-day system of exchange.
The earth is a multibillion-year-old sphere.
The Nazis killed millions of Jews.
On 9/11/01 a Boeing 757 (AA77) flew into the Pentagon.
AGCC is happening.
If you cannot accept these facts, I cannot fake an interest in any of your opinions.
The ones in the plastic cases
...may be uncirculated. You can look up their value online.
I looked HERE for the 1882 coin, which is a Morgan Dollar. The melt value is about $13. HERE are some being sold on Amazon.
The place where it was minted can affect the price. And the condition of the coin. Good place to check is HERE.
I know how to look them up, but not much more than that.
Gracious Pluto
Would they be good to use in an emergency like you talked about? I can't remember what mom said when she gave them to me, but they might have been my grandpa's that she inherited.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated communist, but people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists.
~Hannah Arendt
In an emergency situation
...you'll only get the melt value for the silver weight. No one will be coin-collecting and grading. May as well hang on to them or sell them on ebay. I saw a couple of 1882's on Etsy selling for a lot. They need to be in coin holders.
That's the point of junk silver. They're worth only the silver content and you can buy them and sell them readily, close to the daily silver price.
Excellent info - thanks.
Much appreciated. Junk silver sounds like a great idea.
Just this summer I started stashing some cash at home. Am making an effort to put $20 into it every time I get paid. It's not much, yet, but it's something. Just need to put it somewhere not obvious.
I find it unbelievable, and sad really, that we're being forced to think this way.
"The Rothschilds" do not own "The Federal Reserve Bank"
There isn't even such a thing as "The Federal Reserve Bank". There are 12 regional Fed banks, and their stock is held by the thousands of member banks of the federal reserve system.
The earth is a multibillion-year-old sphere.
The Nazis killed millions of Jews.
On 9/11/01 a Boeing 757 (AA77) flew into the Pentagon.
AGCC is happening.
If you cannot accept these facts, I cannot fake an interest in any of your opinions.
That's the theory, what's the practice?
As long as there's one person appointed by the government to run the system, it's a public-private hybrid of the sort that inevitably gets corrupted. That one person can say "Frog" and the rest of us have to jump. Not good.
There is no justice. There can be no peace.
UR is right, but the banks that count are the NY Primary Dealers
There are currently 24 Primary Dealers (PDs), big global banks and securities broker-dealers ("market makers") that do business directly with the Federal Reserve in primary and Repo (relending) Markets for trading Treasury Bills, Notes and Bonds. The PDs resell federal debt to smaller banks and institutions, making them "market makers" for T-bills and bonds.
The Fed's Regional banks are, as the name suggests, just regional representative offices of the Fed around the country. The New York Fed is by far the most important because that's where most U.S. Financial markets are centered, and it is the NY Fed that operates the "Overnight Window" (and from 2008-2010 the "Special Facility" (QE)) through which the Fed lent short-term credit to the PDs using crap Real Estate repurchase agreements and corporate bonds as collateral. QE was really a giant money laundering operation for junk bonds, but in order to run it, the Fed had to borrow several trillions a decade ago from foreign banks to refloat its own Balance Sheet to remain solvent. The biggest Fed lender was China, and they're not rolling over their 10-year Treasuries that are now maturing. This is roiling the Repo Markets, as the biggest global buyer isn't reinvesting in new U.S. Debt issues.
There are many obvious advantages to being a Primary Dealer, including the ability to borrow money from the Fed at negative real interest rates and to profit off of Treasury resales. But, the downside is that these same banks have to hold onto huge stocks of Treasuries, which are becoming increasingly risky, particularly shorter-term Treasury issues (the "inversion" is thus an indicator of perceived short-term risk of a big economic downturn):
These same PDs also dominate global currency exchange markets, through which they also make (and sometimes lose) money on bets on relative valuations of the Dollar versus other currencies. If Treasuries lose value, so will the Dollar, creating a downward cascade that will take equities with them. Recall, the 2008 Wall Street Meltdown, similarly started as a "Run on Repo."
What's notable about the makeup of the Primary Dealers in recent times is that they are increasingly global, not U.S.-based, banks. A lockup of the Repo Market in Federal Debt, which dwarfs the stock market in value, could bring down the entire western economy. The major players can be seen below:
Current primary dealers with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York
As of May 6, 2019, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York the list includes:[11]
Amherst Pierpont Securities LLC
Bank of Nova Scotia, New York Agency
BMO Capital Markets Corp.
BNP Paribas Securities Corp.
Barclays Capital Inc.
Cantor Fitzgerald & Co.
Citigroup Global Markets Inc.
Credit Suisse AG, New York Branch
Daiwa Capital Markets America Inc.
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC
HSBC Securities (USA) Inc.
Jefferies LLC
J.P. Morgan Securities LLC
Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith Incorporated
Mizuho Securities USA LLC
Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC
NatWest Markets Securities Inc.
Nomura Securities International, Inc.
RBC Capital Markets, LLC
Societe Generale, New York Branch
TD Securities (USA) LLC
UBS Securities LLC.
Wells Fargo Securities LLC.
now THAT was illuminating.
thanks.
The earth is a multibillion-year-old sphere.
The Nazis killed millions of Jews.
On 9/11/01 a Boeing 757 (AA77) flew into the Pentagon.
AGCC is happening.
If you cannot accept these facts, I cannot fake an interest in any of your opinions.
Bingo
VERY good, leveymg! Thank-you.
I took a poor-man's-course in economics starting in late 2006, when (not to blow my own horn) I started seeing Trouble in River City. I was lucky enough to find people who really knew what was happening. I learned everything I could about banking, markets, Wall Street, all the various schemes to pick our pockets, Depression era laws meant to keep us safe, etc, etc, etc.
I'm still glad I spent the time with it. At first, it was dry as popcorn flatulence, but soon became fascinating as I watched the Captains of Industry loot the nation.
Hi bondibox: Here's the Guru Site
...for news, information, records and documents that pertain to the roots of the economic evolution of the US. And, who brought us to where we are.
Want to Know
.
Just posting the link because it occurred to me your might find it useful. The banking section is illuminating. It's not exactly on topic to your essay; it looks to the past while you look to the future. I found your speculations pretty logical, as I understand them. Of course, there are black swans to contend with.
I got caught up here:
If you thought the Dollar would no longer be used for global trade (a reserve currency) not 50 years in the future but in less than five years, would you do anything differently?
::
I agree with you that blockchain technology will pay a big role in the future of global standards. The US Dollar will probably be the last national currency ever used for global trade. State economies are now too corruptible for their currency to be used as a Reserve. Psychopaths inevitably come to power (moreso in Democracies, I think) and become hegemons, weaponizing their (reserve) currency to control the world. That leads to sanctions and the theft of natural resources through global murder and mayhem — as the world now recognizes. It makes more sense to base a global currency on transparency and mathematics (cryptos), as you say.
It is the US refusal to regulate its greedy financial criminals that inflated the enormous looming bubble. Well-regulated economies do not allow such imbalances to grow and do not allow a wealth gap to open in their societies. That is the direct result of political corruption (allowing private money to influence political processes). As long as Americans are the only people to suffer from the coming recession, the rest of the world could ignore it. But these days, recessions don't have neat borders. So, if the US recession triggers economic catastrophes in other countries — I think the world could slam the door on the Dollar, once and for all. God knows this has been their fondest dream. If they are going to be injured anyway, they have nothing to lose by switching to cryptos. This will drive the exchange rate up, but that won't have much affect on the trading economy or the cost of goods between nations. Those are fast transactions and they are hedged. Crypto rates are not affected by national economies. But within the crypto economy, demand does move the price so it would be nice to be holding some.
I wonder, though, if they are a proper investment?
Anyway, interesting essay. Thanks.
@Pluto's Republic If you can't have a court
If you can't have a court uphold whatever promise is implied with cryptos, then how can they be a good investment in the long run? Ultimately they will fail if that is the case.
Any currency requires some kind of force to make the implied promises work, and the force is usually judicial. But of course it can be military or economic.
The important point still stands, "Federal Reserve is privately
owned". As you point out "their stock is held by the thousands of member banks".
There isn't any doubt in my mind that the chosen name "Federal Reserve" was intended to obfuscate the fact that our money supply is inexplicably controlled by privately owned institutions/networks who no doubt put their own interests above those of the nation.
speaking of "conspiracy theory"
I think those of us who are smart enough to know with most news stories that "there is more than meets the eye" should start to label people who are not like us as "naivety theorists".
Interesting Chart of the DJIA
When one looks at the Dow Jones Industrial Average for the last 100 years, it is obvious that these figures are unsustainable and unrealistic. IMO the numbers have lost their meaning, because the rise in the Dow is too steep over too short a period of time. During the Great Recession, the Dow dropped to 6507 on March 9, 2009. Now it is 26,573 on Oct.4 2019. Gaining 20,000 points in 10 1/2 years is nonsense. I'm waiting for Jim Cramer on CNBC to soon start screaming "Dow 30,000!" This is truly Mad Money.
https://tradingninvestment.com/100-years-dow-jones-industrial-average-dj...
Bubble of bubbles
I distinctly remember when the Dow passed 1000. That was in 1972. At the time, I thought it was absolutely crazy to be that high. Heh. It took 76 years to get there.
From 1972, it took just 46 years to hit 25,000. Keep in mind, it took 25 years for the Dow to get back to 1929 levels, a year after I was born – 1954. Not that the Dow of 1929 was the same as the Dow of 1954; it wasn't. Still...
People are now are looking for the next bubble, the next black swan, to try and get ahead of it. I tend to think it's right in front of their faces, in plain sight.