Peak Oil

Open Thread - 02-16-24 - Get Back

The Olduvai Theory of Industrial Civilization

The Olduvai Theory was proposed originally in 1989 by Richard C. Duncan and was originally called The pulse-transient theory of industrial civilization. In 1996 Duncan published a paper The Olduvai theory: falling towards a post-industrial stone-age era and the theory was subsequently renamed The Olduvai Theory. Olduvai Gorge is considered the cradle of mankind because of the oldest human skeletal remains being discovered there, although that is controversial.

The Olduvai Theory is based primarily on peak oil theory and postulates that mankind progressed outward and upwards from its birthplace in the Olduvai Gorge and reached the apex of civilization brought on by cheap energy, and with the advent of collapse brought on by peak oil, will be on the march back to the metaphorical Gorge and the hunter-gatherer way of life.

The Olduvai Theory of Industrial Civilization
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1. Pre-Industrial Phase [c. 3,000,000 BC to 1765]

  • A = Tool making begins (c. 3,000,000 BC)
  • B = Fire use begins (c. 1,000,000 BC)
  • C = Neolithic Agricultural Revolution (c. 8,000 BC)
  • D = Watt's steam engine, 1765

Interval D-E is a transition period.

2. Industrial Phase [1930 to 2025, estimated]

  • E = Industrial Civilization is defined to begin in 1930 when the leading-edge value of energy-use per person reached 37% of its peak value.
  • F = Peak of Industrial Civilization, c. 1978: confirmed by historic data published by BP, IEA, USCB, UN, etc.
  • G = World average energy-use per person continues to fall, 1996
  • H = Industrial Civilization is defined to end when energy-use per person shrinks to 37% of its peak value, forecast to occur by 2025. Life-expectancy (X) is estimated to be less than 100 years.

Interval H-I is a transition period.

3. Post-Industrial Phase [c. 2100 and beyond]

  • J, K, and L = Recurring future attempts at industrialization fail.

Source & Image Attribution

Open Thread - 07-15-22 - The Rooster

I lived through what seemed like the idyllic mid to late 50s. Marched my way through the tumultuous 60s. Cruised through the raucous 70s and its political changes. Worked hard to make it through the the 80s. Watched the overton window lurch to the right in the 90s. Saw the result of that lurch to the right in the 2000s. Witnessed the financial robbery of the 2010s. I'm still here, alive and kicking, in the 2020s, so far.

Never, through all of those years, did I have an inkling of what it would be like in the here and now. Even if I had a possible clue I would have considered it a fevered dream. This is some crazy shit we're living through folks.

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Open Thread - 06-03-22 - The Great Reset

The Great Reset. Let's talk about it.

I'm sure by now we all have a pretty good idea of what the Great Reset is all about, Klaus Schwab and the WEF are not shy about their plans. So, let's not focus on the various tenets of the design, but let us take a look at the reasoning behind what seems to be a rush to implement the Great Reset now rather than the previously projected 2030 timeline.

One world government has always been the stated goal of the Reseters, but, IMHO, it's greed and power that are the true impetus. But why does there now seem to be a frenzied rush to get it done?

Here are a few of the reasons I've come up with than may explain the rush to Reset:

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