So, on T-3 HuffPo Pollster averaged polls has Clinton 53-43; a 10-point lead. Heh, heh, heh. Some digging into the numbers below.

Here's Steppenwolf with my NY election prediction.

Please volunteer for Bernie's NY campaign if you can. You can phonebank and facebank and offer logistical help from out of state. The reddit Bernie volunteering clearing house is at https://www.reddit.com/r/SandersForPresident/new/

NY Race
There's an interesting thing happening in the NY polls. All week, the "catch-up" horns of the trend lines have formed, unformed, and now it's half-formed. Bernie's trend line is now pointing steeply upwards. Notice the Clinton trend line is only wavering, not curling downward. What's up?

Well, some pollsters have their thumbs on the scale is what. NBC/WSJ/Marist has been the most regular pollster in NY and they are not to be trusted much. Their latest poll to 13/04 has Clinton 57-40. Ridiculous. I've pointed out their failings in this series. To recap: NBC/WSJ by themselves have a 538 A- rating. But Marist has a B- rating, a 1.5 GOP lean, and a simple average error of 5.0! They use a live phone method and it sucks :=)

The other recent poll was CBS/YouGov up till 13/04, which has Clinton 53-43. It is an internet poll with a much bigger pool. But heavens, CBS is a B rated pollster and YouGov is rated C+

The key is that the polls ended on 13/04, before the NY debate and all the latest developments in the campaign. A Clinton lead of 53-43 is very suspect. My second point is based on the performance of polls in the Dem cycle so far. The polls have under-counted the Bernie vote more often than not. To me, a 10-point lead at T-3 is really a 4-5 point lead, if that. Plus, the last 48 hours of the races so far have generally seen Bernie close fast and furious. If these poll performances hold for NY, election night could repeat Iowa's thrill ride. I am highly optimistic about NY.

BTW: I wrote this on 1 April:
"The Bernie campaign turned the corner last night and the magic carpet ride is on. "All right, G! What are we smoking today?" :=) I've watched a whole lotta Bernie speeches. Last night's speech was in a whole different league. Remember the pleas for Bernie to "draw the contrasts" sharper? Heh, heh, heh, if you watched last night's speech, you woulda done the same chair dancing I did. He waited until NYC. Why? Bernie is smarter than us."
http://caucus99percent.com/content/bernies-magic-carpet-ride-victory-beg...

National Race
The national trend lines are looking pretty, but have been stuck this past week. Bernie started to check into the passing lane, but a series of sniffy polls are keeping him from passing.

So there's reason for optimism in the national race from the averaged polls trend lines.

I look forward to your thoughts, data, and opinions.

Peace be with us, if we toughen our minds and work hard for Bernie's campaign,
gerrit

PS: From the Department of The Dogs Bark But The Caravan Marches On
Let's remember this nonsense from Bloomberg. We're gonna keep old Helmut here and laugh at him on 19 April.
http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-04-06/clinton-can-t-get-...

Helmut Norpoth, a political science professor at New York's Stony Brook University, said while Sanders has been “on a roll” lately, Sanders would need to buck historical trends and peel off a significant chunk of those superdelegates to have a shot at turning the contest around. He said New York is one of his last chances to make that case.
“If she lost, that would be a shock and that might really put some pressure on super-delegates,” Norpoth said of the New York primary. Given Clinton's deep political connections in New York, however, and a significant minority voting population more likely to favor Clinton, Norpoth said, Sanders is likely to find that “New York's going to be very difficult.”

Tsk, tsk, tsk, "very difficult"...bit of a faux clutch of faux pearls there, eh, Helmut?