2016 Global Temps Send Shockwaves Through Climate Scientists

Hi Folks, I've been away. (You've all been real busy here! w00t!) Only to return with shocking news on global temperature records in 2016. You may well ask, "WTF, G! We're not even three months into 2016 and winter just ended last week (although tell that to the Great Lakes region, eh)?"
Well, dear friends, it is pretty bad. How bad? See more below.

It's about as bad as things were for my grandfather and his mates in the 1st South African Division right before the fall of Tobruk in WW2. The story goes that the eve of the final battle some of the lads prayed to their Christian God for deliverance. "Lord," said one, "As you can see we're in big trouble. We need your help. And Lord, the trouble is really big. Sending your son isn't going to be enough; we need you to come down Yourself!"

Remember that 2014 was the hottest year on record? Then 2015 broke that record, by a mile. Now 2016 is promising to be even worse.
This is where we are at:

2016-blowing-records-away.jpg
Image source: Climate Central
It is from my favourite climate journalist, Robert Scribbler at his site http://robertscribbler.com/2016/03/21/world-meteorological-organization-...

Here's what Scribbler said a few days ago:

Temperature averages for 2016 are so far about 1.22 C above the 1951 to 1980 baseline or about 1.44 C above 1880s averages. Though temperatures should fall somewhat as El Nino cools off in the Pacific, it’s likely that 2016 comes in well hotter than the previous three record warm years. Current guidance indicates a likely range of 1 to 1.13 C above the 1950 to 1981 baseline or 1.22 to 1.35 C above 1880s averages. This is uncomfortably close to 1.5 C warming levels the Paris Climate Conference has stated a desire to avoid by the end of this Century.

But I’m pretty sure if you told these same scientists a year ago that February of 2016 would see temperatures in the range of 1.43 to 1.57 degrees Celsius above averages seen during the 1880s, as we see now in the three major global climate monitors (here, here and here), they’d have responded with not just a little incredulity.

Pause for a moment and let this sink in a bit. Remember Paris 2015? Not the bombing, but the climate conference that was supposed to be the news from Paris. The world's leaders all sort of promised they would sort of try to keep the planet from sailing past a 1.5C global temperature rise above 1880s levels...by the end of 2100. Look at the graph again, specifically the 2016 red trend line.

What does it say to you? It says to me that the bureaucrats who are still drafting and circulating directives on their government's responses to the Paris Climate Agreement should look outside their office windows more often. While they're typing and editing and conferencing and lunching with lobbyists and generally blowing smoke up their voters' asses, the global temperatures are hitting their silly 2100 targets. That's 84 years before their target date. The Kochs of our world really have done a number on us, eh? Yes, and we've let them do that to us. Let's you and I have a look outside the window for them today. Remember that March still has a week to go.

anderson-creek-wildfire-enormous-footprint.png
Image source http://www.koco.com/weather/massive-fire-burns-over-200000-acres/38670426

The fire season hasn't even begun yet and 300 acres are burning in Kansas. As if perfectly clear to all of us here on c99, Bernie is the only presidential candidate who understands the depth of our problems. And even if Bernie becomes president, I think it is too late for most living species, including humans. (Earth is fine and will be fine, as it has always been throughout geological time.) Why do I say that?

Remember that the conservative mass of climate scientists have said that 1.5C is our limit and that beyond 2C above 1880s temperatures lie only dragons? Now here we are in spring 2016 - 84 years before the bureaucrats deadline - where monthly global temperatures hover around 1.5C and the trend line is pointing steeply upwards. Our problem is that climate change is not a linear phenomenon. Climate change is exponential, because the secondary feedbacks that kick in along the upward tend line accelerates the process in manifold ways that produce new feedbacks that reinforce the physical phenomena. Physics has no mercy. Here at 1.5C above 1880s, we are hurtling into runaway climate change at breakneck speed.

I understand that everyone is busy working for Bernie's election, as we should be. "How could I even think about climate change in all this?" Physics, however, doesn't care. Consider our political time lines. The election is in November 2016 and the inauguration is in January 2017. Then our President Bernie would get to work on climate change and everything else. However long that takes, despite his and our best efforts. Then match that with the graph of the 2016 temperature trends. By election day 2016, the planet will be blowing though 1.5C and by inauguration day 2017 will be leaving 1.5 in the dust racing towards 2C. Exponential change, remember?

We could have a c99 pool with bets on the month when the planet blows past 2C above 1880s temperatures. Would it be December 2017, April 2018, October 2018, or even February 2019? What are the odds we blow past 2C before the next presidential election? "Argh, stop it, G!, this is insane, we have decades, we'll be dead first, we have until 2100..." Physics, however, doesn't care.

While you discuss politics and work for Bernie, spare some thought for your personal and community sustainability. How resilient are you?How self-sufficient? Where are your support systems? I mean your life support systems - food, water, fire protection, flood protection, security, health, etc. Exactly how helpless have you allowed the elites to make you? Could you survive should the electric can opener die?

Tic, tic. Tic, tic. Political time lines. Tic, tic. Tic, tic. Exponential climate change. Tic, tic. Tic, tic. Personal sustainability. Tic, tic. Tic, tic.

Welcome back, G! You turkey Smile

Peace be with us, if we work for it with peaceful hearts,
gerrit

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MarilynW's picture

for over 3 million years (Lucy) and have managed to severely threaten the planet in 100 years. Quite a performance!

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To thine own self be true.

Steven D's picture

doesn't equate to making wise decisions, unfortunately.

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"You can't just leave those who created the problem in charge of the solution."---Tyree Scott

Gerrit's picture

(naturally occurring changes) to reach the critical mass to change the face of the planet and wipe out the dinosaurs. Humans managed to reach the same point - all by themselves - in 140 years. Astoundingly efficient species suicide. A global record, no doubt.

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MarilynW's picture

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To thine own self be true.

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The earth is a multibillion-year-old sphere.
The Nazis killed millions of Jews.
On 9/11/01 a Boeing 757 (AA77) flew into the Pentagon.
AGCC is happening.
If you cannot accept these facts, I cannot fake an interest in any of your opinions.

Gerrit's picture

do not adapt to climate change: From Nature Bats Last:

Furthermore, microbes in soil — organisms that exert enormous influence over our planet’s carbon cycle — may not be as adaptable to climate change as most scientists have presumed, according to a paper published 2 March 2016 in PLOS One: “This study capitalized on a long-term reciprocal soil transplant experiment to examine the response of dryland soils to climate change. The two transplant sites were separated by 500 m of elevation on the same mountain slope in eastern Washington state, USA, and had similar plant species and soil types. We resampled the original 1994 soil transplants and controls, measuring CO2 production, temperature response, enzyme activity, and bacterial community structure after 17 years.” The bottom line, according to a write-up at Phys.org: “The scientists found less adaptability than they expected, even after 17 years. While the microbial make-up of the samples did not change much at all, the microbes in both sets of transplanted soils retained many of the traits they had in their “native” climate, including to a large degree their original rate of respiration.” In other words, even the smallest of organisms are not able to keep up with changes in climate. Rather, biological activity in soils is relatively constant in the face of large rapid changes in climate. **

http://guymcpherson.com/climate-chaos/see-how-far-weve-come/

Vertebrates don't adapt fast enough and neither do the itty-bitty little bugs.

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Gerrit's picture

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Alison Wunderland's picture

[flagged for excessive apostrophes]

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No, really.

I missed you.

Really.

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'Well, I've wrestled with reality for thirty five years, Doctor, and I’m happy to state I finally won out over it." Elwood P. Dowd "

Gerrit's picture

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Lookout's picture

A new study reveals rapid change http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/23/science/global-warming-sea-level-carbo...

Rapid melting of the arctic triggers methane release and accelerates warming. Are we past the tipping point already? I guarantee we are unless we alter our behavior and leave it in the ground! How likely is that?

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“Until justice rolls down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream.”

Gerrit's picture

near the ocean, get out while your property will still sell.

Real soon, he says, more than 13M Americans (plus their dependents and the commerce they sustain, will be ocean rise climate refugees. If you're a young reader, practice your diving. within your lifetime, you'll be able to scuba dive Miami.

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Phoebe Loosinhouse's picture

their actuaries are all about limiting liability. But ironically they will never be able to limit their liability enough to begin to answer what is going on with climate change. But yes, the first area they they targeted were coastal communities and made getting plain old vanilla homeowner policies quite difficult. They also raised their deductibles enough to preclude lots of people from actually getting any benefit from the insurance should it become necessary. (Remind you of anything?)

BUT even when they do this, they still have huge liabilities because ANY AREA IN THE COUNTRY can have weird climate related events like when super-saturated air sat over South Carolina and gave them Biblical rains INLAND. How are the insurance companies gonna actuarialize themselves out of that? Some people can cover their deductibles. How about the wildfires that are the fruit of drought?

I am really curious to see what is going to happen to the property casualty industry in the coming years.

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" “Human kindness has never weakened the stamina or softened the fiber of a free people. A nation does not have to be cruel to be tough.” FDR "

Gerrit's picture

industry is the financial climate canary in the effing coal mine, eh. You're right. Their actuaries know it too. They understand that for them from now on out insurance is just a shell game. They're hoping to shuffle the nut around fast as they can as they can, but there is only one, fairly soon, outcome. And when the insurance sector goes down, it will take the rest of the financial sector down with it, if it hadn't taken everything down itself before then. Work hard on your personal sustainability, eh. Best wishes,

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Phoebe Loosinhouse's picture

I'm enjoying writing and commenting at this site.

An issue that coastal homeowners will have to grapple with is how the cost of national flood insurance impacts the sale-ability of their properties. As long as it was affordable ( around 400 a year) it was no issue, but as it escalates, buyers will be precluded from buying certain properties because flood insurance IS A REQUIREMENT for most mortgages in a flood or surge zone. What this means in the real world is this - coastal properties will become more and more saleable only to cash buyers who can ignore flood insurance requirements and go all cash and self-insure.

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" “Human kindness has never weakened the stamina or softened the fiber of a free people. A nation does not have to be cruel to be tough.” FDR "

Gerrit's picture

you can. Move away from coastal communities. Two years ago, I almost bought a oceanfront retirement property in Nova Scotia (Hi Trump refugees Smile and then backed out because of climate science. Seeing the changing weather effects there even in just two years, I am so glad I did. It's gonna get biblical there soon.

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lotlizard's picture

1. Because of disasters linked to global heating. But also:

2. Because of low or zero interest rate policies of U.S. and allies’ central banks.

Effect of #2: insurance companies (and pension funds) can no longer find anything safe to invest in that would yield the return needed to cover anticipated future payouts.

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gulfgal98's picture

Is that Noccalula Falls in your avatar? I remember saying you lived in Alabama.

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Do I hear the sound of guillotines being constructed?

“Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable." ~ President John F. Kennedy

Lookout's picture

It's DeSoto Falls. Here's a picture of Noccalula Falls. It's also on Lookout Mt. but farther south and on a different water source.

Lookout 040.jpg

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“Until justice rolls down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream.”

gulfgal98's picture

and thought it looked very much like it. It is neat to know that there is another falls that is equally or perhaps more beautiful. Thank you for responding. I am sorry to be late getting back as I have been traveling.

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Do I hear the sound of guillotines being constructed?

“Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable." ~ President John F. Kennedy

WoodsDweller's picture

Beware the moving of goal posts. The 2 C number is from pre-industrial society - 1750. Unfortunately, the earliest reliable records are from the 1880s, estimated to be about 0.2 C above the 1750. All the climate reporting agencies report temperatures as deltas from a baseline (I assume there is some good reason for that), so make sure you double check which baseline they are using, there are at least three. "Journalists" frequently don't bother, they either report the least or most sensational figures depending on the slant they are going for. So the 1.5 C target from the Paris conference would be 1.3 C above the 1880s or ... possibly this year.
HAHAHAHAHAHA!
Ahem.
Actually the 2 C target was never a scientific number, it was pulled out of ... the air ... by an economist back in the 90s and adopted by everyone as a target. The whole point of the 1.5 C target is that 2 C increasingly looks like it will be a disaster. It will. Doesn't matter, we are already blowing past it.
Remember that there were no simulations in the last IPCC report that kept us below 2 C by 2100 (BTW, it keeps getting warmer after that) without active carbon sequestration. RCP 2.5 had active carbon sequestration being the single largest human activity, fully deployed worldwide by 2025. Too bad nobody is working on it, or has a budget for it.
The IEA (not a climate prediction agency, but a carbon production and storage prediction agency) predicts we hit 6 C by 2050.
None of that includes estimates of the contributions of methane.

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"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." -- Albert Bartlett
"A species that is hurtling toward extinction has no business promoting slow incremental change." -- Caitlin Johnstone

Cassiodorus's picture

We don't.

"Scientific thinking" about climate change mitigation is muddled by the conservative, capitalist, and commodity-fetishist way in which "doing something" is generally characterized -- in "science," in the mass media, and by the elites.

Generally speaking, the question people are asking about climate change is: "what can I do to mitigate climate change while keeping everything the same?" The proper question is: "what form of society would properly mitigate climate change?" Until we ask that question, we'll never mitigate climate change.

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"The war on Gaza, backed by the West, is a demonstration that the West is willing to cross all lines. That it will discard any nuance of humanity. That it is willing to commit genocide" -- Moon of Alabama

Gerrit's picture

question. Simply because the evolutionary rate of species adaptability runs so far behind the accelerating rate of climate change. We've run out of time. I beat the drum nowadays for folks to focus on personal and immediate communal sustainability instead. I try to do that in my personal circumstances, but it's a race against time (and money and middle-aged energy Smile Best wishes to you,

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Cassiodorus's picture

None of our time, however, will do us any good if we can't be bothered to ask the right question about climate change mitigation. Maybe the fact that we can't be bothered in that way is what gives us the feeling of having run out of time.

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"The war on Gaza, backed by the West, is a demonstration that the West is willing to cross all lines. That it will discard any nuance of humanity. That it is willing to commit genocide" -- Moon of Alabama

giving up the internal combustion engine, central heating and cooling of living spaces, animal husbandry, air travel, etc. Pretty much what we know as modern civilization.

Eventually the population problem will resolve itself without our intervention. Willingly giving up our comforts and profligate consumption of non renewable resources? That's going to be a tough sell.

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Capitalism is the extraordinary belief that the nastiest of men for the nastiest of motives will somehow work for the benefit of all."
- John Maynard Keynes

Gerrit's picture

folks willingly give up comforts and consumption for "the sake of the planet." That decision will be made for them in due course, not by governments or society, but by the physics of runaway climate change happening right now. There are no technological or societal fixes for climate change left; the only actions left to individuals relate to personal sustainability and security, and the vast, vast majority of people will choose not to do anything. Which is their right. It is, after all a free country. Nice to meet you. Best wishes,

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Cassiodorus's picture

if the question continues to be phrased in terms of "how do we mitigate climate change while leaving everything else the same?" I'm sure we all want climate change mitigation to work in our fantasy worlds while in reality we want to continue using fossil fuels because no fantasy world of "hey what if society were different?" has opened up.

The solution, then, is to open up the discussion of climate change mitigation to new, utopian concepts of fantasy. What if we had a world-society which could mitigate climate change, and how would it be structured? Get people to engage their fantasy concepts of how they could actually do work in the world if they could have what they wanted. Engage the utopian concept of a union of free producers.

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"The war on Gaza, backed by the West, is a demonstration that the West is willing to cross all lines. That it will discard any nuance of humanity. That it is willing to commit genocide" -- Moon of Alabama

Gerrit's picture

point. It is our collective failure of imagination that could have brought the drivers of anthropogenic climate change under control in the 80s, just as Americans and Canadians did to reduce acid rain during the 70s. The majority of people who are (even) aware of climate change still assume that there are scientific, technical, even societal actions that could mitigate climate change, or even get the genie back into the bottle. I would encourage such folks to do as you propose and dream big in utopian terms and work towards that end.

Then there are others like me, in ever-growing numbers, who accept the scientific work of particularly the Arctic and Antarctic climate scientists, whose reports of their instruments' measurements show that runaway climate change is here today. For folks like myself, the priority of changing culture and society to make solutions like geoengineering possible has faded completely.

My priority is the sustainability, first of my family, then of my local community. I am interested and focused on things like self-reliance, resilience, food, water, and personal security, local economics - the whole Transition Network thing, and local cooperation. Remember the saying so prominent among we greens, "Think Global, Act Local." I've dropped the first half, but I'm all for folks who have the heart to Think Global, but I just don't have the time anymore.

On that pathetic note, I do hope we all have the most fantastic of possible days Today :=) Best wishes,

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Cassiodorus's picture

Well OK, failure of imagination. What would success of imagination look like?

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"The war on Gaza, backed by the West, is a demonstration that the West is willing to cross all lines. That it will discard any nuance of humanity. That it is willing to commit genocide" -- Moon of Alabama

RantingRooster's picture

That is what has me deeply concerned. Since we are blowing past our targets with ease, I'm concerned by the potential negative feedback loop by a huge release of methane in the very near future (10-20 years) that will send us down a path that we won't recover from, most of us anyway.

The methane from fracking isn't helping either.

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stevej's picture

and a very minor nitpick - I think that its a positive feedback loop (positive not in the good sense but in the runaway sense)
I could be wrong though.

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“To learn who rules over you, simply find out who you are not allowed to criticize.” -Voltaire

Gerrit's picture

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stevej's picture

It's been a long time since I sat through that lecture Smile
Excellent post btw

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“To learn who rules over you, simply find out who you are not allowed to criticize.” -Voltaire

RantingRooster's picture

loop thingy. What ever kind of loop it is, it surly isn't good for us, that's for sure!

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Gerrit's picture

vortex" what? Oh, I see, three feet of snow to clear. Thanks for that, Physics.

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Gerrit's picture

community have been going bonkers over their instrument readings for about 10 years now and they're overwhelmed by the methane data's exponential (that word again) increase in methane releases from an increasing number of sources. One of the foremost experts is Dr Natalie Shakhova: http://arctic-news.blogspot.ca

Shakhova.jpg

Deep, deep, doo-doo.

Thanks and best wishes,

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http://arctic-news.blogspot.ca
It's a really good read. Natalie Shakhova has been studying methane release from the East Arctic sea floor. The plumes are now huge.
If you add the effective change due to CH4, you get an equivalent CO2 level of just under 500ppm today. Methane is like an accellerant. One good size pulse can send global temperatures rising many degrees C. 50Gt is ten times the total atmospheric CH4 today. Methane is 100 times more powerful than CO2 in its instantaneous greenhouse warming effect. The only good news is that it has a short half-life of 7 years, as it is converted to CO2. Estimates of methane equivalency to CO2 involve giving it a time span, but as it's released it is 100+ times as potent.

We really are in a Global Emergency. Even the IPCC is far too optimistic in our ability to so something about it. I talked to a climate scientist who headed one of the IPCC panels and he disclosed the political nature of their findings. Basically the policy is to not totally panic people in order to generate some progress. I don't know if that is the best policy. I suspect that we should be getting close to the time when we do need to totally panic folks.

As an engineer I look at graphs like CO2 levels, temperature anomalies and I have to come to the conclusion that both the first and second derivatives are positive. That is the damage is increasing and it's accelerating. When do the slopes of these curves go negative? I don't see this happening ever, until we get massive human die-back, that is we eliminate much of the source of the pollutants. We have political and economic problems that would have to be solved before embarking on a serious program to limit CO2/CH4. We need the entire military budget and more to be spent on solving this problem. Do you think that the small minds in the Defense Department could ever grasp this fact? Oddly enough the Pentagon has recognized global climate change as our biggest risk to security. But that won't stop the State Department/MIC and folks like Hillary Clinton from trying to achieve the elusive goal of total military dominance over the planet.

I'm encouraged that the data is getting more accurate, but the complexity of the model is a hindrance to forming an appropriate response. We all know that this is a global emergency, but bad people, like the Kochs who have a financial stake in this, can question the data. But that's getting awfully like questioning the science of evolution. Getting everyone on the same page would be good, but that still leaves us with the task of solving an insurmountable problem. We have to back-out of the civilization that we have built and do it fast. I don't see it happening.

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Capitalism has always been the rule of the people by the oligarchs. You only have two choices, eliminate them or restrict their power.

Gerrit's picture

you have a moment.

I agree about Arctic News and thanks for the link. I should remember to post it more often. Sam Carana is a rare scientist with the gift of visual illustrations that communicate complex issues to plebs like me. If a c99 member wants a single, accurate source of climate information, please subscribe to the Arctic News RSS. It is the cutting edge of climate research. The world should listen to Dr Shakhova; one of our leading experts on the overwhelming danger of methane.

I so agree about the political compromise that is the UN's IPCC. It's political nature means that it's information is tailored to the most conservative audiences. Through following the climate scientists' discussions at their Real Climate site, I finally came to understand the basic uselessness of the IPCC, and gave up reading at Real Climate.

I focus on family and local community sustainability and encourage all c99 members to do the same. I recommend you reverse in your personal circumstances the 90s green slogan of "Think Global, Act Local." First, act local, then, if you have time and energy, think global.

Thanks, Wizard, it's great to meet you, and best wishes,

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Miep's picture

for blogging this.

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Stay on track. Stay in lane. Don't throw rocks.

Gerrit's picture

than the IPSCC lets on. And yes, methane is the real killer. Are you familiar with Guy McPherson and his massive, massive climate essay at his blog Nature Bats Last? I've been reading that thing since soon after he began it. He still updates it with every week's new studies, although I don't know why he even bothers anymore. For folks who don't know McPherson, a retired prof of natural sciences and environment who makes a good climate messenger/journo/speaker, here's the link to just the summary:
http://guymcpherson.com/climate-chaos/climate-change-summary-and-update/

In part 2 on the secondary feedbacks, I remember freaking out years ago when his count went past 10 and he's at 64 now. And that's just the ones Guy has counted. Our species is toast. As Guy says, only love remains.

Thanks, WD, for telling it the way it really is.

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WoodsDweller's picture

I've been following Guy's writings for a while. I don't post over there much, too much navel gazing in the forums and Guy rarely participates. Though I actually got something added to the big essay! Either that or Guy got it from elsewhere and added it a week after I posted. Whatever.
Scribbler is outstanding for what's happening today and puts things together better than anyone I've seen. His coverage of this winter's weather in the Arctic was outstanding. Unfortunately he, like many people (Hansen included) just can't bring themselves to accept the logical conclusion.
One thing to keep in mind, most of the carbon we've added to the atmosphere has been sequestered for a very long time - 100s of millions of years. If all of the loosely sequestered carbon (forests, topsoil, peat, permafrost, clathrates, CO2 dissolved in the ocean that is released as it warms) is released, and I don't see what it will stop it, it will be in addition to all the stuff we've added, and thus worse than any event since those coal beds were laid down.

If you haven't seen this (fiction, several things wrong with it, still fun though)

[video:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M1cMnM-UJ5U]

"Are you going to get in trouble for saying this?" ... "Who cares?"

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"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." -- Albert Bartlett
"A species that is hurtling toward extinction has no business promoting slow incremental change." -- Caitlin Johnstone

Gerrit's picture

boffin (do folks still say that? Smile Yes, I don't bother with the comments at NBL either. And I'm not into the grief counselling stuff there. I just go there every week and read the week's updates at the monster essay (hooray for mac command-F!) And yes, Scribbler still resists calling a spade a f*cking shovel. Like you say though, he's brilliant at presenting the latest science in a readable manner for us plebs. Sam Carana is my hero: my goodness, a scientist who communicates so visually. Powerful, powerful.

And yes, the combination of massive industrial carbon releases AND the loosely sequestered carbon releases now re-relesing into the atmosphere AND the methane bombs developing is overwhelming.

I'm on Safari right now and too techno-stupid to fix its setting to see the video, but I'll get on Firefox and watch it. Thanks!

I am so happy to meet you here. I would appreciate it if you would kindly correct me if I overstate things. I get, ahem, a touch hyperbolic, and wouldn't want to mislead on anything I've read. And I look forward to sharing the misery with you here. Best wishes,

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WoodsDweller's picture

just click through the video link and watch it on YouTube. There are lots of versions of that clip, it's quite popular. Look for "climate change newsroom".
Don't worry about overstating things. You can't. Can you overstate the horrible beauty of a 50 km asteroid on a collision course entering the atmosphere?
The thing that convinced me about all this is the fact that every study, every report has either implicitly or explicitly stated "we had no idea it could happen this fast". The only counter-example I can think of is people predicting an ice-free arctic by last year. Off by a little, but not much. Everything happens in 2100. A year later a study comes out saying "maybe 2060". Then "it looks like 2030". Then "hey, look at that thing in the mirror.".
Hansen just published some stuff about wet bulb emergencies by 2100. Scribbler was covering that last year. Around 3000 dead in India, a couple of hundred in Japan, and just a couple of degrees short of a big disaster in the Persian Gulf.
Rapid climate change is controversial in the paleoclimatology community. The conventional wisdom is that climate change happens over millennia, so we have plenty of time. There is an increasing body of evidence that tipping points aren't the exception, they are the rule. Not one degree per century (which is the average across a large rapid event), but one degree per decade. That's why you get mass extinctions. Nothing can adapt to that.

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"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." -- Albert Bartlett
"A species that is hurtling toward extinction has no business promoting slow incremental change." -- Caitlin Johnstone

Gerrit's picture

for years, but came to understand what you say: they won't see what their very data tells. I'm just a pleb, but I got frustrated by their conservative takes. Eventually I figured that it wasn't just that I don't get it, but that they were so close to their data (and the necessary politicking) that it became the old forest for the trees thing. And so I began to read wider and my eyes got wider! I hope.

The rate of evolutionary adaption is exactly our biggest problem. Rapid climate change, both that forecasted and that which we see week to week and month to month right now, is just occurring too fast for any evolutionary adaptability to cope. (My radio is playing The Doors' "The End" as I type, g-d help me Smile Not even the soil bacteria can evolve fast enough, never mind vertebrates or human cognition.

Oh goodness, Hanson's wet bulb stuff made me goggle-eyed. And 2100 is hopelessly optimistic. In the M-E, the only living things by 2100 might be sand fleas. Those little buggers are like cockroaches!

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Gerrit's picture

I come from a Christian culture, so I am only waiting for the last sign from nature. Soon as I see the dolphins rise en masse from the oceans, saying, "So long and thanks, for all the fish," I'll know it's all over. :=) Cheers, mate

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kharma's picture

we are destroying the host.

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There is nothing which I dread so much as a division of the republic into two great parties.. This...is to be dreaded as the greatest political evil under our Constitution.--John Adams

Gerrit's picture

Gaia is getting rid of an invasive parasite species that's destroying her body, eh. If you'll forgive a little black metaphysical humour Smile Best wishes,

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Bisbonian's picture

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"I’m a human being, first and foremost, and as such I’m for whoever and whatever benefits humanity as a whole.” —Malcolm X

magiamma's picture

Welcome back Gerrit. I actually missed your posts. We are on the curve of that exponential function if not on our way up. Can you say whooeee! Hold on to your socks. 'They' have been missing the upticks regularly for many years. All well and good to take care of ourselves, but, Holy Rising Seas 'G' man, what about the hordes who have no clue. I don't know whether to laugh or cry.

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Gerrit's picture

there you've placed your finger on the sore spot. What about the hordes? Two thoughts, both tragic:

One, there is no hope for the hordes. None. Most folks are so helpless - literally, physically, functionally - that there is no hope.
Two, work real hard on personal and immediate communal sustainability, self-reliance, resilience, and, crucially, security including form the hordes to come.

It's all I got. It's not enough. But it is all I got. I hope you have more. Best wishes,

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We will likely destroy each other faster than temperature or food and water shortages, thanks to our massive stockpile of readily available weapons. I have no desire to extend my life at the cost of another's, neither do I believe that this fatally flawed life form that we call human is uniquely worthy of rescue.

The larger forces at work in this world are not ours to direct, but our choices of how we choose to live will continue to be our responsibility.

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Capitalism is the extraordinary belief that the nastiest of men for the nastiest of motives will somehow work for the benefit of all."
- John Maynard Keynes

Gerrit's picture

shoes.

My priority is my family: my retirement project is to help my children build our family Climate Ark. I'm a 20-year vet and not at all suited for sitting back and letting the enemy overrun my position, so to speak. Everyone is different and each to their own. We have always been a very counter-cultural family, despite my military life. My kids are highly self-sufficient and resilient and we're all working on the same goal: family sustainability and physical security for as long as we're still breathing.

Thanks for your comments; it's good to share our ideas and plans. Best wishes,

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Szaephod's picture

After the clackity-clackity-clackity-clackity going up the roller-coaster ramp. I hear it now...

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The spirit of party serves to enfeeble the Public Administration,
agitates with Jealousies and false alarms, and opens the door to corruption,
which finds access to the government itself through the channels of party passions.
George Washington

Gerrit's picture

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Pricknick's picture

Southeastern Michigan has had very little snowfall and very mild temps so far. While it saves me money on propane, the lakes in this region are down as are the ponds and swamps. Trees started putting out leaves two weeks ago and a cold snap will devastate our apple and cherries.
It's a scary year so far.

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Regardless of the path in life I chose, I realize it's always forward, never straight.

Gerrit's picture

getting a fast clipper-like ice-snow-rain mix that will crush all our garden's little too-early bulbs and early plants poking up. The plants can't handle the weirding of the weather patterns they've adapted to ages ago.

But like you, our natural gas bill is the lowest ever. I'm grateful, but I know the environment is paying the price. Best wishes to you and your garden.

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mileser's picture

And it's not funny.

People seem to think change is a gradual thing. It is, until it isn't. Very often you will have gradual changes, but then you hit a critical point and everything breaks. We're at that point.

I believe we may very well be past the point of saving civilization. We're already at the point of calamitous climate change. Can we save the human species or even prevent an almost total collapse of biodiversity on the planet? I don't know. We may very well create a planet with only the most primitive of microspecies that will have to be the building blocks for whatever life comes next.

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-9.75, -8.21

Gerrit's picture

when during the vast majority of a person's daily life they only experience linear change. Sadly, climate change is exponential change beyond our evolutionary adaptability. I agree with you; this is an extinction level event (the 6th of geological time) that will last a geological epoch before life reboots, if at all, on the planet. And no amount of magical thinking will affect the laws of physics. And a happy good morning to us, eh! G, you turkey :=) It is excellent motivation though for going out into the fullest, most glorious glorious of all days - Today. Cheers, mate

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I'm in south-central Texas, and over the past decade our weather has been a continual problem for our harvest. Of course that has always been true for people who try and coax things to eat out of the ground. However, every year it seems to be a different problem and one that is hard to deal with. Last year we had way too much rain at exactly the wrong time and so our tomatoes all split as did our pomegranates. So, zero harvest of pomegranates and few tomatoes. Usually we get bags of pomegranates. This year we had no freeze so we will have zero plums because they did not set. A few years ago we had such severe drought conditions and such high heat that our plants could not grow......can't grow with 100 plus degree temps. It's always something and often something unexpected, severe, and dramatic. I guess that is the definition of climate change.

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Alison Wunderland's picture

Too hot to set, or too wet flower. Or stuff rots in the ground before sprouting.

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Gerrit's picture

recent gardens are a perfect example of the "weirding" of the weather that no species of flora or fauna can adapt to. Living things require a steady, reliable progression of predictable seasonal changes to replicate and evolve. Climate change, and now runaway climate change, wrecks havoc with adaptability. A recent study showed that even the soil microbes cannot adapt fast enough, which means increasing soil sterility, a frightening horror-movie-like phenomenon.

I'm learning more about underground greenhouses. In northern climates, folks have made progress with year-round greenhouses, which require an underground component. The greenhouse is dug down to below the frost line, where the earth is a steady 55F year-round. The same feature that geothermal climate control uses, along with radiant floor heating, solar features, and all the old 70s passive climate control techniques. I have bought the plans, just need to save a bit more money. Let me know if you'd like me to post some photos.

Soon, all food production will have to be done within climate-control structures. Best wishes,

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I have family that have semi-retired in NW Ontario. They do a bit of gardening but live on granite with a very thin veneer of soil and would have no chance of digging more than a few inches down. I can see how climate controlled greenhouses will be a necessity all over this planet. I can envision digging below ground even in hot places......passive climate control may be a necessity to escape the 100 degree temps here. I find those ideas very interesting.

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Gerrit's picture

and links and then we could share ideas. I'll get right to it: this is real exciting for me to have folks to talk to about these things. Cheers, mate. Look for something called "Earthships and Underground Greenhouses" or whatnot.

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WoodsDweller's picture

are the only thing I've seen that I think will do any good. Use hydroponics to minimize water usage. If you look at California and Sao Paulo (the current rains and flooding are El Nino related and there won't be any further relief for 6-8 years) they cut off agricultural water to keep the water flowing to the cities. What else can they do? The key to buying time to address climate change is to minimize the resource footprint of agriculture and to minimize the impact of chaotic weather. Vertical farming requires a huge electricity input that probably is prohibitive, greenhouses would only require supplementary lighting to regulate the growing/flowering season, and temperature is regulated passively. You could probably recapture some of the transpired moisture and recycle it.
We need to convert agriculture ASAP. I don't expect conventional agriculture to work within a decade. This isn't radical technology, but it requires a vast investment of capital. It's going to take all the money there is, and it has to start now.

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"A species that is hurtling toward extinction has no business promoting slow incremental change." -- Caitlin Johnstone

Gerrit's picture

discuss actual plans.

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Lookout's picture

If fact we could really address some of these issues. There's a nice series, Green World Rising, four 10 min videos, that offers some solutions to slow down and halt the warming. https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7k2r1E7TkvAK9eMTZB3sFw

They are narrated by Hartmann and Dicaprio and a worth a listen especially if your thinking, "We're doomed". We probably are (indeed past the tipping point), but it's important to know there are ways to minimize warming. First and most important -leave it in the ground! There's nice photography if nothing else.

Think global, act local!

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“Until justice rolls down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream.”

lotlizard's picture

They must be deposed, or at least their power broken.

The Kochs are pikers compared to them.

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Gerrit's picture

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