Hi Folks, I've been away. (You've all been real busy here! w00t!) Only to return with shocking news on global temperature records in 2016. You may well ask, "WTF, G! We're not even three months into 2016 and winter just ended last week (although tell that to the Great Lakes region, eh)?"
Well, dear friends, it is pretty bad. How bad? See more below.

It's about as bad as things were for my grandfather and his mates in the 1st South African Division right before the fall of Tobruk in WW2. The story goes that the eve of the final battle some of the lads prayed to their Christian God for deliverance. "Lord," said one, "As you can see we're in big trouble. We need your help. And Lord, the trouble is really big. Sending your son isn't going to be enough; we need you to come down Yourself!"

Remember that 2014 was the hottest year on record? Then 2015 broke that record, by a mile. Now 2016 is promising to be even worse.
This is where we are at:

Image source: Climate Central
It is from my favourite climate journalist, Robert Scribbler at his site http://robertscribbler.com/2016/03/21/world-meteorological-organization-...

Here's what Scribbler said a few days ago:

Temperature averages for 2016 are so far about 1.22 C above the 1951 to 1980 baseline or about 1.44 C above 1880s averages. Though temperatures should fall somewhat as El Nino cools off in the Pacific, it’s likely that 2016 comes in well hotter than the previous three record warm years. Current guidance indicates a likely range of 1 to 1.13 C above the 1950 to 1981 baseline or 1.22 to 1.35 C above 1880s averages. This is uncomfortably close to 1.5 C warming levels the Paris Climate Conference has stated a desire to avoid by the end of this Century.

But I’m pretty sure if you told these same scientists a year ago that February of 2016 would see temperatures in the range of 1.43 to 1.57 degrees Celsius above averages seen during the 1880s, as we see now in the three major global climate monitors (here, here and here), they’d have responded with not just a little incredulity.

Pause for a moment and let this sink in a bit. Remember Paris 2015? Not the bombing, but the climate conference that was supposed to be the news from Paris. The world's leaders all sort of promised they would sort of try to keep the planet from sailing past a 1.5C global temperature rise above 1880s levels...by the end of 2100. Look at the graph again, specifically the 2016 red trend line.

What does it say to you? It says to me that the bureaucrats who are still drafting and circulating directives on their government's responses to the Paris Climate Agreement should look outside their office windows more often. While they're typing and editing and conferencing and lunching with lobbyists and generally blowing smoke up their voters' asses, the global temperatures are hitting their silly 2100 targets. That's 84 years before their target date. The Kochs of our world really have done a number on us, eh? Yes, and we've let them do that to us. Let's you and I have a look outside the window for them today. Remember that March still has a week to go.

Image source http://www.koco.com/weather/massive-fire-burns-over-200000-acres/38670426

The fire season hasn't even begun yet and 300 acres are burning in Kansas. As if perfectly clear to all of us here on c99, Bernie is the only presidential candidate who understands the depth of our problems. And even if Bernie becomes president, I think it is too late for most living species, including humans. (Earth is fine and will be fine, as it has always been throughout geological time.) Why do I say that?

Remember that the conservative mass of climate scientists have said that 1.5C is our limit and that beyond 2C above 1880s temperatures lie only dragons? Now here we are in spring 2016 - 84 years before the bureaucrats deadline - where monthly global temperatures hover around 1.5C and the trend line is pointing steeply upwards. Our problem is that climate change is not a linear phenomenon. Climate change is exponential, because the secondary feedbacks that kick in along the upward tend line accelerates the process in manifold ways that produce new feedbacks that reinforce the physical phenomena. Physics has no mercy. Here at 1.5C above 1880s, we are hurtling into runaway climate change at breakneck speed.

I understand that everyone is busy working for Bernie's election, as we should be. "How could I even think about climate change in all this?" Physics, however, doesn't care. Consider our political time lines. The election is in November 2016 and the inauguration is in January 2017. Then our President Bernie would get to work on climate change and everything else. However long that takes, despite his and our best efforts. Then match that with the graph of the 2016 temperature trends. By election day 2016, the planet will be blowing though 1.5C and by inauguration day 2017 will be leaving 1.5 in the dust racing towards 2C. Exponential change, remember?

We could have a c99 pool with bets on the month when the planet blows past 2C above 1880s temperatures. Would it be December 2017, April 2018, October 2018, or even February 2019? What are the odds we blow past 2C before the next presidential election? "Argh, stop it, G!, this is insane, we have decades, we'll be dead first, we have until 2100..." Physics, however, doesn't care.

While you discuss politics and work for Bernie, spare some thought for your personal and community sustainability. How resilient are you?How self-sufficient? Where are your support systems? I mean your life support systems - food, water, fire protection, flood protection, security, health, etc. Exactly how helpless have you allowed the elites to make you? Could you survive should the electric can opener die?

Tic, tic. Tic, tic. Political time lines. Tic, tic. Tic, tic. Exponential climate change. Tic, tic. Tic, tic. Personal sustainability. Tic, tic. Tic, tic.

Welcome back, G! You turkey

Peace be with us, if we work for it with peaceful hearts,
gerrit