the fact that Hillary's numbers never go up. I can't wait to dance on her political grave. Imagine what they'll be after he drubs her in the next several states.
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"Religion is what keeps the poor from murdering the rich."--Napoleon
Playing the saps on both sides with the same Trump card.
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The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?
Invitation to air one's feelings about Trump. Well, that just opened a door for me to let myself in through:
Trump is a disgusting, moronic and dangerous RW fascist.
But Hillary is a disgraceful, arrogant and dangerous Neoliberal corporatist.
Both would be a complete disaster, and bespeak how rotten, corrupt and a farce our politics have come. Never before have we seen two candidates with such alarmingly high negatives. How has it ever come to this fraud?
If Bernie Sanders is not the nominee, I believe we'll see the lowest turnout in the history of presidential elections. And with that Trump just may win. I've volunteered, canvassed and phonebanked for a Democratic Congress in 2006 and for Obama in 2008.
The superdelegates have a grave responsibility. Confidence and belief in government is at an all-time low. This year has been a mass insurrection against a rigged system. Sanders has masterfully made Money In Politics the central point of his campaign, upon which everything from student, consumer and homeowner debt, insurance companies running our healthcare, the prison industrial complex and banks and corporate donors outright owning our politicians are tethered. And he's run the most electrifying, historic campaign, with rally after rally of tens of thousands of people starving for an honest broker who has the fortitude, intelligence and honesty to call out the fraudulence of this broken political system. Everyone understands Money In Politics is the cause of chronic dysfunction and a revolving door in DC. People are more than fed up. They're livid. They've seen how the banks' greed and dominance over our gov't have upturned our lives. Which explains how desperate that they'd vote for a fraud like Trump. On the other side many of us believe the Democratic primary has been rigged against the best candidate we've had in generations. How much more corruption can be foisted upon an already aggrieved electorate until they hit back?
I consider myself pretty politically active. But this year I'm very seriously considering not voting. If it's those two horrible candidates I'll definitely be voting Green Party.
#NeverHillary #NeverTrump
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"If I should ever die, God forbid, let this be my epitaph:
THE ONLY PROOF HE NEEDED
FOR THE EXISTENCE OF GOD
WAS MUSIC"
I am considering unsubscribing from them and letting them know why. After endorsing Sanders, they have done very little to help. Unlike other large organizations that just made an executive decision to back HRC, MoveOn polled its subscribers. Yet, they actually called for him to quit over a month ago. Funny way to support your candidate, I think. Same thing happened with that senator who endorsed him.
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We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit.--Aristotle
If there is no struggle there is no progress.--Frederick Douglass
Did they only do the one head-to-head contest between Hillary and Drumpf?
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I believe in an America where the separation of church and state is absolute ..., where no church or church school is granted any public funds or political preference. — President John F. Kennedy, Houston, TX, 12 September 1960
If you follow the link in that MoveOn email, it takes you to the Fox News poll that shows that Bernie is still 8 points stronger against Trump than $$Hillary.
It was an exceptionally strong polling for Trump, but nevertheless, Bernie still beats him, and does 8 points better in the matchup than $$Hillary.
I suspect MoveOn is grabbing for some of the 'oh no not Trump flood of cash that's coming from the same folks that thought $$Hillary was the stronger Democratic candidate.
Ah-derp.
I have heard that, too. But I can't remember where. And I can't seem to find an example...in all the dross about "how dare they not vote for her." But I would like to find a quote. For future poo flinging. Anyone have a good example?
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"I’m a human being, first and foremost, and as such I’m for whoever and whatever benefits humanity as a whole.” —Malcolm X
It is stunning to see how far she has fallen. In your title the words "dead heat" is close to accurate...more like dead campaigns. The Atlantic should start preparing their next version of their 2008 article, The Front-Runner's Fall. Bring it home for us Bernie!
That's going to cause some heartburn at Clinton HQ.
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"The smart way to keep people passive and obedient is to strictly limit the spectrum of acceptable opinion, but allow very lively debate within that spectrum." --Noam Chomsky
I usually post this as a tweet with the message: It is a bad sign when monarchs crown themselves.
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We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit.--Aristotle
If there is no struggle there is no progress.--Frederick Douglass
industrial magnets and have them walk through the voting booths about midday?
(In case anyone here is not familiar with it, magnets can destroy information on hard drives.)
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We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit.--Aristotle
If there is no struggle there is no progress.--Frederick Douglass
A lot of Dems feel they should vote for a woman, so they don't tell pollsters they won't vote for this particular one.
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The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?
I've told this story many times but, hey, I was there and it's fun to talk of past campaigns!
Here's the true story...
I worked for the small company that processed the tracking poll, conducted by Opinion Research. The main guy at Opinion was Hugh Schwartz. He was Bradley's pollster and started out with 3 polls a week, beginning in early August. Bradley was way, way ahead of George Deukmejian, the Republican. No contest! But at the beginning of October the lead started shrinking. Smaller and smaller. By the end of October the lead was single digits. At that point Field Research, the biggest independent pollster in San Francisco, stopped polling, believing Bradley's lead was safe.
But I got to see the dailies. By this time, as October ended we were processing daily polls. By the Friday before the election Bradley's lead was 3 points. Then over the weekend, in Hugh's own polls, Deukmejian took the lead. The last poll was Sunday night, which we tabulated Monday. Bradley had moved back to 1 point ahead.
Tuesday came and the exit poll results were fed to us. Naturally things were fluid because people vote at different hours. In any case, the results of the exit poll showed Deukmejian narrowly winning. Hugh didn't believe it. Now that's a critical mistake, I think, for any pollster to overthink what's going on. He decided that, in his opinion, there were going to be a whole lot more votes coming in from South Central LA, votes that hadn't shown up in the exit polling.
So he told us to adjust the numbers. There is a technique in polling called "weighting". That's usually used to make sure your quota groups are represented as the demographics say they should be. It's NOT supposed to be used to increase some number based on a hunch. But that's what he did. He made us give certain voters extra oomph! And when that was added in, lo and behold, Bradley was the winner of the poll! Not only that, but Jerry Brown, running for US Senator, was also a winner! Neither was true.
Then Hugh went on TV to explain how Bradley and Brown won. I was aghast as I watched because I knew what he'd done. I knew that his real numbers showed Deukmejian the winner.
As the actual votes came in....well, we know what happened. What was Hugh to do? Say he'd cooked the numbers? That'd be professional suicide. And if he was just wrong that wouldn't be good for his career, either.
So he invented "The Bradley Effect". He totally made up the idea that people had lied to him because they were racist. It DID NOT happen that way.
I've talked with professionals about this in the years since. Some say that even if there was no Bradley Effect that there have been similar things, like when Doug Wilder lost in Virginia. Maybe there was a Wilder Effect, I can't say because I wasn't there. But everytime I read about Bradley I feel compelled to tell....the true story!
The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?
Can you explain then why Bradley lost a double digit lead in the last month or two?
Maybe the "Bradley Effect" is not in people lying to pollsters. but people "honestly" thinking they would do the right thing, but giving in to their racism when the time came?
There was also the Helms/Grant race in NC.
I'm not married to the Bradley Effect. There clearly was no effect with Obama.
I had a friend who was involved with Republican politics, a little after Deukmejian/Bradley, and he claimed that the CA Rs believed that race gave them a 15 point advantage. This was at the time, and hubristic as can be, (it did not work that well for Pete Wilson) but to my untrained eye I see… saw something.
With his big lead, did he play it safe? Come across as wishy-washy? So long ago....and I'm a numbers person. I remember the numbers much better than the campaign itself.
If the lead hadn't dropped slowly I'd be more inclined to think the original numbers showed the "Effect" but since it was so gradual I just think the more voters got to know Bradley, the less enthused they became.
On the other side, I sure don't recall any particular reason to vote for Deukmejian, other than he was the Republican candidate.
and it affects how people vote. The Bradley effect was supposed to be that people would tell pollsters that they were planning to vote for a black person because that was the acceptable thing to do and then they would vote for the white candidate running against him or her. The Bradley effect lives in lore even though it has been discredited. On the Media did a nice piece on this a while back and it was fascinating to read the comment upstream. So racism is real, but people apparently have no qualms in in telling pollsters that they will vote for a white person running against a black person.
It will be their fault for nominating a horrible person who is also a horrible candidate, but yes, let them blame me and other disgusted former Dems. There's a small chance some Democrats will get the idea and nominate someone half decent next time.
No, it's not a matter of purity. After all, I was willing to compromise with Sanders. But even an honest good-government centrist who wasn't a warmonger, torturer, or tribune of Wall Street would have been acceptable to me this time.
I never needed them to nominate Lenin. I need an honest dealer who doesn't aspire to be a mass murderer. If that's to much to ask from the Democrats (and it is, and it will remain so until the Clintonites collapse), then fuck them sideways.
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“If there is no justice for the people, may there be no peace for the government.”
They really had no explanation for Clinton's past history -- how is it, for instance, that with a forty point lead over Bernie Sanders and the mass media on her side, Clinton somehow drifted into a virtual tie with Sanders. It must be her fabulous campaigning skills.
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“When there's no fight over programme, the election becomes a casting exercise. Trump's win is the unstoppable consequence of this situation.” - Jean-Luc Melanchon
best lawyers together and write new laws completely outside of the legislative bodies of the government. If you could have an alternative convention, why couldn't there be an alternative legislative body of united alternative movements, like an off-the-grid legislative body? They sit together and start writing laws that make sense, reflect the goals and values the movement has, and then start promoting their competing laws against the corporate written laws in Congress?
The shit is in the laws. As you can't get them changed within the political process of the government, you have to write them outside of it, self-sustainably, off-grid, independent from any corporate funding. To write laws you need minds, not money, and the will to write them as best as you can.
And there is a review of Bob's recent book which I saw in galley proofs but doesn't look like it is out yet.
They post on the Columbus Free Press which has been around since the 1970's and continues to hang on with no paid staff. They also have a publishing house and are active in community radio and Bob is the head of the Green Party for OH and a long term activist.
I have mentioned this before and will let you know if their promised major legal suite against the election process which they said would be announced before the CA primary, I will let people here know about it. Then again, it might not happen. But in the 15 years that Bob has been in the game of election integrity, there has never been the energy behind it that there has this year.
HRC won both West Virginia and Kentucky by HUGE leads over Obama in 2008. This year, she lost West Virginia and tied in Kentucky even with the shenanigans. That says a lot.
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We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit.--Aristotle
If there is no struggle there is no progress.--Frederick Douglass
There is no election. I truly don't think I should pay my taxes this year since my registration fraud case. It probably won't be decided now until "late Fall". aka I'm probably fucked till after November.
year. But then I also think that on Labor Day everyone should take a sick day. See how companies do without workers.
Sorry to hear about the ongoing problems with your registration.
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We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit.--Aristotle
If there is no struggle there is no progress.--Frederick Douglass
Holidays are the best example of why I am almost glad that I refuse to leave the house. I went to one of those Early Bird things at Wal-mart one time. I am still regretting it.
What is even worse for retail is that those holiday periods keep starting earlier each year and then now have to be followed up with additional days of sales. Kind of hard for Mother's Day, but I am sure they will think of a way to have it expand to a week after the fact...Happy Belated Mother's Day! Maybe they can have a Happy Early Mother's Day card that people can send a year early in case they forget their mother again the following year.
Ten years? You have a lot more patience than I do. = )
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We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit.--Aristotle
If there is no struggle there is no progress.--Frederick Douglass
I so hate crowds. I had never been to one and wanted to see what got people all excited. I get a lot of stupid ideas like that. = )
How about a Happy Belated Mother's Day Protest March? The chants may be a bit long though with the list of wars we are currently in along with those we are trying to start. (I use "we" very, very loosely here. It is actually only a grammatical invention in this case.)
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We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit.--Aristotle
If there is no struggle there is no progress.--Frederick Douglass
Black Friday has killed Thanksgiving. My daughter had to leave Thanksgiving day in order to work at 6pm for black friday where she worked. The buses to the mall don't run on holidays so all those people who commute there get stuck or brought/picked up.
It's so hard to even shop local and try to find stuff made in America that are actually made in America.
But one of my big pet peeves are people on cell phones while checking out. People who throw their tissues unto the belt or into the bag I'm bagging. Americans, in general, shit on people in retail.
customer service/retail/food service... et al. Working with the public really is draining - physically and emotionally. A person can be kind and nice, but people as a whole are panicky, mean, hostile and quick to anger.
Also I had helped make a fairly new store become a huge success. You know what happens when you make your overlords happy and rich. They start screwing over the people who made them filthy rich. They start by cutting hours, make little 'rules', they start watching you. They start keeping secrets whereas before they were transparent. They build new buildings to house all the corporate peeps and then they have secret parties and only the upper management go.
is what Trump will do to her reputation. He will drag her through the mud so often and so deep that she will be viewed in disgrace for the rest of her life. And he won't have to lie or make stuff up. She has enough skeletons in her closet to keep him busy for quite a while.
I really believe that the Republicans have a video of one of her big bank talks, maybe more than one. I suspect they can prove laundering foreign money through the Clinton foundation and into her campaign. And they probably can prove that she approved of arms sales only after countries made generous contributions to the Clinton Foundation.
And I haven't even mentioned Bill and the 26 flights on the Lolita Express or the rumors of a rape. He's a goner, too.
the little things you can do are more valuable than the giant things you can't! - @thanatokephaloides. On Twitter @wink1radio. (-2.1) All about building progressive media.
"It appears they took the easy route of sending back a form letter rather than truly investigating an issue that is of compelling public interest," Blackburn wrote in a statement. "The allegations swirling around the Foundation are very serious and should be thoroughly vetted. This is an issue of fairness and accountability that needs to be addressed.
"The lack of transparency by the Clinton Foundation raises issues of deception and false claims," she added.
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We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit.--Aristotle
If there is no struggle there is no progress.--Frederick Douglass
and it may be that his instincts or advisers can make it appear that way, he will be an absolute gentleman, and just stick to criticism of her various conflicts of interest and foreign policy fuck-ups. if they manage to cast him as a bully, she will start gaining sympathy.
No need to take the low road. If he takes the high road he likely beats her.
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the little things you can do are more valuable than the giant things you can't! - @thanatokephaloides. On Twitter @wink1radio. (-2.1) All about building progressive media.
during the Clinton regime, and her vote for War and more and more war as SOS, they have it coming, and deserve so much more than Trump will be able to level at them.
candidate in U.S. history. Her resume length to likability ratio is second to none. She could definitely lose and has run the type of primary campaign that is destined to make any general election extremely perilous.
I love close games. This is going to be exciting for the country. I hope it's a dead heat and we have the first shared presidency in U.S. history, Trump and Clinton, co-presidents. That would be awesome. Imagine when they gave their state of the union address, it could be like the X-factor.
[–]navirose [score hidden] 40 minutes ago
The question I would ask is 'does Bernie want to be the President; or the nominee for the DNC? I can't believe that when Bernie made his commitment to support the eventual nominee for the DNC, (if he didn't win) that he could anticipate the level of corruption in the DNC which his run for the nomination would expose. He is a man of great integrity. He has since said repeatedly he would do what ever he can to assure that Trump does not become POTUS and thus this creates an ethical dilemma for him. If the general election poll trends continue to show Trump lead over HRC increasing, while only Bernie has a substantial advantage over Trump; how does he not stage an independent bid if he doesn't win the nomination ?
I think that is an interesting point. He is dead set against Trump and probably sees him as a fascist [and might be right].
Sanders IS doing everything possible to make sure Trump does not win by campaigning very, very hard. In trying to get the nomination so the Democrats will have a winning candidate, he IS doing everything in his power. Now if HRC wants to cheat her way into the Democrats losing, that is on the Party's head, not Sanders' because they sanctioned, condoned and contributed to it.
Besides, even Sanders cannot turn a sow's ear into a silk purse.
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We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit.--Aristotle
If there is no struggle there is no progress.--Frederick Douglass
what he tells his supporters, they would support Hillary if she campaigned his platform. And not just put into the 'Platform' at the convention, but as the basis for the campaign, so that she was convincing, and so that it would be more difficult to wiggle out of her positions and justify embracing TPP, regime change, and further neoliberal rent leeching from the US public by her keepers on Wall St.
Her response: you get nothing, on your knees serfs!
For once honesty. She could never have been convincing claiming to rein in the looters.
the little things you can do are more valuable than the giant things you can't! - @thanatokephaloides. On Twitter @wink1radio. (-2.1) All about building progressive media.
In case you didn't notice, people *want* an outsider.
Also, people are so disgusted w/both the frontrunners they'd likely flock to any third choice in the general--which is something else to worry about, esp if the Dems try to shoehorn Biden in.
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"More for Gore or the son of a drug lord--None of the above, fuck it, cut the cord."
--Zack de la Rocha
"I tell you I'll have nothing to do with the place...The roof of that hall is made of bones."
-- Fiver
I have to wonder whether the pollsters are even trying to pretend any more. I read a comment about the Rasmussen poll that said 80% of the pollees were over 45 years old, but I haven't been able to confirm that. If it's true, shouldn't those people be tarred and feathered?
The last CNN poll that had $$Hillary beating Trump big (13 points) was taken 5 weeks ago iirc, and the participants below age 45 were so few that they weren't represented in the data charts.
Anyone saying that $$Hillary has the electoral college all-locked-up is either a liar or a fool. Or is expecting Rovian levels of cheating.
Trump will have the racists and the disaffected. I think the plan is that he scare the relatively sane Repubs over to Clinton, marginalizing those of us who support Sanders. I'd hate to see things work out this way, because if they do, the country sinks deeper into oligarchy.
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"The object of persecution is persecution. The object of torture is torture. The object of power is power. Now do you begin to understand me?" ~Orwell, "1984"
on many Repubs to cross over rather than vote for The Donald; and for Berners, BernieBros and Berniecrats to stay home and whine, stomp their feet about how unfair it all was. And, sadly, that could play out. But it's the Only way she wins. I hate to say it, but possibly the Only way to beat Her Highness is to vote for The Donald.
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the little things you can do are more valuable than the giant things you can't! - @thanatokephaloides. On Twitter @wink1radio. (-2.1) All about building progressive media.
Comments
Someone here wrote a great essay on
the fact that Hillary's numbers never go up. I can't wait to dance on her political grave. Imagine what they'll be after he drubs her in the next several states.
"Religion is what keeps the poor from murdering the rich."--Napoleon
;-)
I expect those number will keep on dropping. Hillary is nothing if not predictable.
"When the powerless are shut out of the media, we will make the media irrelevant" ~Anonymous~
One of her campaign surrogates
said her numbers always go down, never up. I can't remember who, but it was early on, like, April or May.
"We'll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American public believes is false." ---- William Casey, CIA Director, 1981
Lawrence O'donnell said it on MSNBC.
Haven't heard it from her surrogates, but as L.O. said, her staffers are aware of it, and have to be frightened by these latest polls.
"When the powerless are shut out of the media, we will make the media irrelevant" ~Anonymous~
Lisa, it wasn't Lawrence, it was his guest
I just can't remember who it was.
www.Angie4Congress.com
#StrongerTogether for a better future for OUR posterity
...
"When the powerless are shut out of the media, we will make the media irrelevant" ~Anonymous~
I got a very irritating email from MoveOn
About how "Hillary and Bernie's" leads over Donald had vanished in his recent surge.
What a load of shit, MoveOn. Simply factually untrue.
*One* candidate's lead has evaporated. The other still has a lead.
"More for Gore or the son of a drug lord--None of the above, fuck it, cut the cord."
--Zack de la Rocha
"I tell you I'll have nothing to do with the place...The roof of that hall is made of bones."
-- Fiver
Professional sharps.
Playing the saps on both sides with the same Trump card.
The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?
Got something similar from MoveOn, think it might have been an
Invitation to air one's feelings about Trump. Well, that just opened a door for me to let myself in through:
"If I should ever die, God forbid, let this be my epitaph:
THE ONLY PROOF HE NEEDED
FOR THE EXISTENCE OF GOD
WAS MUSIC"
- Kurt Vonnegut
Excellent! MoveOn has been a huge disappointment.
I am considering unsubscribing from them and letting them know why. After endorsing Sanders, they have done very little to help. Unlike other large organizations that just made an executive decision to back HRC, MoveOn polled its subscribers. Yet, they actually called for him to quit over a month ago. Funny way to support your candidate, I think. Same thing happened with that senator who endorsed him.
We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit.--Aristotle
If there is no struggle there is no progress.--Frederick Douglass
Where is the same head-to-head for Sanders vs Trump?
Did they only do the one head-to-head contest between Hillary and Drumpf?
I believe in an America where the separation of church and state is absolute ..., where no church or church school is granted any public funds or political preference. — President John F. Kennedy, Houston, TX, 12 September 1960
I got it too
If you follow the link in that MoveOn email, it takes you to the Fox News poll that shows that Bernie is still 8 points stronger against Trump than $$Hillary.
It was an exceptionally strong polling for Trump, but nevertheless, Bernie still beats him, and does 8 points better in the matchup than $$Hillary.
I suspect MoveOn is grabbing for some of the 'oh no not Trump flood of cash that's coming from the same folks that thought $$Hillary was the stronger Democratic candidate.
Ah-derp.
"Or so I've been told."
I have heard that, too. But I can't remember where. And I can't seem to find an example...in all the dross about "how dare they not vote for her." But I would like to find a quote. For future poo flinging. Anyone have a good example?
"I’m a human being, first and foremost, and as such I’m for whoever and whatever benefits humanity as a whole.” —Malcolm X
Well, Boxer pretty much showed Sanders voters out the door
http://vetsforbernie.org/2016/05/boxer-tells-sanders-supporters-boo-your...
Graph tells the whole story
It is stunning to see how far she has fallen. In your title the words "dead heat" is close to accurate...more like dead campaigns. The Atlantic should start preparing their next version of their 2008 article, The Front-Runner's Fall. Bring it home for us Bernie!
She thinks she doesn't need voters because
she has Boards of Election and hackers.
"More for Gore or the son of a drug lord--None of the above, fuck it, cut the cord."
--Zack de la Rocha
"I tell you I'll have nothing to do with the place...The roof of that hall is made of bones."
-- Fiver
Wait, coronations have voters now?
That's going to cause some heartburn at Clinton HQ.
"The smart way to keep people passive and obedient is to strictly limit the spectrum of acceptable opinion, but allow very lively debate within that spectrum." --Noam Chomsky
Many dictators have allowed voting to appease the populace.
I usually post this as a tweet with the message: It is a bad sign when monarchs crown themselves.
We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit.--Aristotle
If there is no struggle there is no progress.--Frederick Douglass
Can we get people to fill there pockets with extra strong
industrial magnets and have them walk through the voting booths about midday?
(In case anyone here is not familiar with it, magnets can destroy information on hard drives.)
We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit.--Aristotle
If there is no struggle there is no progress.--Frederick Douglass
Remember the "Bradley Effect"
People are still ashamed to admit they are racist and sexist. Hillary is still the "approved" candidate - give Trump another 5 or even 10 points.
On to Biden since 1973
Good call on the Bradley Effect.
Although I think it works in reverse here.
A lot of Dems feel they should vote for a woman, so they don't tell pollsters they won't vote for this particular one.
The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?
One more time, there was NO Bradley effect
I've told this story many times but, hey, I was there and it's fun to talk of past campaigns!
Here's the true story...
I worked for the small company that processed the tracking poll, conducted by Opinion Research. The main guy at Opinion was Hugh Schwartz. He was Bradley's pollster and started out with 3 polls a week, beginning in early August. Bradley was way, way ahead of George Deukmejian, the Republican. No contest! But at the beginning of October the lead started shrinking. Smaller and smaller. By the end of October the lead was single digits. At that point Field Research, the biggest independent pollster in San Francisco, stopped polling, believing Bradley's lead was safe.
But I got to see the dailies. By this time, as October ended we were processing daily polls. By the Friday before the election Bradley's lead was 3 points. Then over the weekend, in Hugh's own polls, Deukmejian took the lead. The last poll was Sunday night, which we tabulated Monday. Bradley had moved back to 1 point ahead.
Tuesday came and the exit poll results were fed to us. Naturally things were fluid because people vote at different hours. In any case, the results of the exit poll showed Deukmejian narrowly winning. Hugh didn't believe it. Now that's a critical mistake, I think, for any pollster to overthink what's going on. He decided that, in his opinion, there were going to be a whole lot more votes coming in from South Central LA, votes that hadn't shown up in the exit polling.
So he told us to adjust the numbers. There is a technique in polling called "weighting". That's usually used to make sure your quota groups are represented as the demographics say they should be. It's NOT supposed to be used to increase some number based on a hunch. But that's what he did. He made us give certain voters extra oomph! And when that was added in, lo and behold, Bradley was the winner of the poll! Not only that, but Jerry Brown, running for US Senator, was also a winner! Neither was true.
Then Hugh went on TV to explain how Bradley and Brown won. I was aghast as I watched because I knew what he'd done. I knew that his real numbers showed Deukmejian the winner.
As the actual votes came in....well, we know what happened. What was Hugh to do? Say he'd cooked the numbers? That'd be professional suicide. And if he was just wrong that wouldn't be good for his career, either.
So he invented "The Bradley Effect". He totally made up the idea that people had lied to him because they were racist. It DID NOT happen that way.
I've talked with professionals about this in the years since. Some say that even if there was no Bradley Effect that there have been similar things, like when Doug Wilder lost in Virginia. Maybe there was a Wilder Effect, I can't say because I wasn't there. But everytime I read about Bradley I feel compelled to tell....the true story!
Now THAT's...
a great war story!
The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?
WOW
Just fucking wow.
"We'll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American public believes is false." ---- William Casey, CIA Director, 1981
Of course that was back in the day when the votes were
actually counted on paper. Nowadays the polls are fixed to the outcomes wink wink nudge nudge
That is...
one of the most informative posts I've read on any site all day. Fantastic story!
Yes! Truth...told by an eyewitness.
Doesn't get any better.
(edited, to correct my spelling. I guess it does get better.)
"I’m a human being, first and foremost, and as such I’m for whoever and whatever benefits humanity as a whole.” —Malcolm X
Thanks. I forwarded your comment to Bob Fritakis
He is one of the election integrity gurus here in Columbus OH
Here is a recent post of his
http://freepress.org/article/professor-fitrakis-flunks-nations-joshua-ho...
Arguing for the use of exit polls
Honest question
Can you explain then why Bradley lost a double digit lead in the last month or two?
Maybe the "Bradley Effect" is not in people lying to pollsters. but people "honestly" thinking they would do the right thing, but giving in to their racism when the time came?
There was also the Helms/Grant race in NC.
I'm not married to the Bradley Effect. There clearly was no effect with Obama.
I had a friend who was involved with Republican politics, a little after Deukmejian/Bradley, and he claimed that the CA Rs believed that race gave them a 15 point advantage. This was at the time, and hubristic as can be, (it did not work that well for Pete Wilson) but to my untrained eye I see… saw something.
On to Biden since 1973
Bradley faded probably because he was uninspiring
but that's just my opinion. I voted for him!
With his big lead, did he play it safe? Come across as wishy-washy? So long ago....and I'm a numbers person. I remember the numbers much better than the campaign itself.
If the lead hadn't dropped slowly I'd be more inclined to think the original numbers showed the "Effect" but since it was so gradual I just think the more voters got to know Bradley, the less enthused they became.
On the other side, I sure don't recall any particular reason to vote for Deukmejian, other than he was the Republican candidate.
Racism is certainly real
and it affects how people vote. The Bradley effect was supposed to be that people would tell pollsters that they were planning to vote for a black person because that was the acceptable thing to do and then they would vote for the white candidate running against him or her. The Bradley effect lives in lore even though it has been discredited. On the Media did a nice piece on this a while back and it was fascinating to read the comment upstream. So racism is real, but people apparently have no qualms in in telling pollsters that they will vote for a white person running against a black person.
I hope they blame me if they lose.
It will be their fault for nominating a horrible person who is also a horrible candidate, but yes, let them blame me and other disgusted former Dems. There's a small chance some Democrats will get the idea and nominate someone half decent next time.
No, it's not a matter of purity. After all, I was willing to compromise with Sanders. But even an honest good-government centrist who wasn't a warmonger, torturer, or tribune of Wall Street would have been acceptable to me this time.
I never needed them to nominate Lenin. I need an honest dealer who doesn't aspire to be a mass murderer. If that's to much to ask from the Democrats (and it is, and it will remain so until the Clintonites collapse), then fuck them sideways.
“If there is no justice for the people, may there be no peace for the government.”
It's always the fault of leftists
Republicans almost never blame their base on the right.
Dems always blame their base on the left.
Not a Lot of Profit From the Left... nt
“Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat.” ~ Sun Tzu
Dems ALWAYS blame their voters
Because the Party/candidate never fails-they are only ever failed by their voters.
I argued this today on Facebook
The response from the Clinton people was that Clinton's lead in the Electoral College is safe and secure. They cited this map:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_el...
They really had no explanation for Clinton's past history -- how is it, for instance, that with a forty point lead over Bernie Sanders and the mass media on her side, Clinton somehow drifted into a virtual tie with Sanders. It must be her fabulous campaigning skills.
“When there's no fight over programme, the election becomes a casting exercise. Trump's win is the unstoppable consequence of this situation.” - Jean-Luc Melanchon
that's why a nationwide movement has to get its
best lawyers together and write new laws completely outside of the legislative bodies of the government. If you could have an alternative convention, why couldn't there be an alternative legislative body of united alternative movements, like an off-the-grid legislative body? They sit together and start writing laws that make sense, reflect the goals and values the movement has, and then start promoting their competing laws against the corporate written laws in Congress?
The shit is in the laws. As you can't get them changed within the political process of the government, you have to write them outside of it, self-sustainably, off-grid, independent from any corporate funding. To write laws you need minds, not money, and the will to write them as best as you can.
https://www.euronews.com/live
These attorneys and others working on this
They have been trying to get Karl Rove in jail for over a decade.
Bob Fritakis was on a panel with others in NYC last weekend at the Left Forum
He posted this recently
http://freepress.org/article/professor-fitrakis-flunks-nations-joshua-ho...
And there is a review of Bob's recent book which I saw in galley proofs but doesn't look like it is out yet.
They post on the Columbus Free Press which has been around since the 1970's and continues to hang on with no paid staff. They also have a publishing house and are active in community radio and Bob is the head of the Green Party for OH and a long term activist.
I have mentioned this before and will let you know if their promised major legal suite against the election process which they said would be announced before the CA primary, I will let people here know about it. Then again, it might not happen. But in the 15 years that Bob has been in the game of election integrity, there has never been the energy behind it that there has this year.
Book review
Book Review: Bob Fitrakis and Harvey Wasserman, THE STRIP & FLIP SELECTION OF 2016: Five Jim Crows & Electronic Election Theft
Another log to throw on the pyre...
HRC won both West Virginia and Kentucky by HUGE leads over Obama in 2008. This year, she lost West Virginia and tied in Kentucky even with the shenanigans. That says a lot.
We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit.--Aristotle
If there is no struggle there is no progress.--Frederick Douglass
Arizona a tossup?
I nearly fell off my chair.
"I’m a human being, first and foremost, and as such I’m for whoever and whatever benefits humanity as a whole.” —Malcolm X
It's a coronation, not an election
There is so much fraud in just the primaries....
There is no election. I truly don't think I should pay my taxes this year since my registration fraud case. It probably won't be decided now until "late Fall". aka I'm probably fucked till after November.
"Love One Another" ~ George Harrison
Personally, I think everyone should take a tax break next
year. But then I also think that on Labor Day everyone should take a sick day. See how companies do without workers.
Sorry to hear about the ongoing problems with your registration.
We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit.--Aristotle
If there is no struggle there is no progress.--Frederick Douglass
I love your ideas!
Gawd, I'm so glad I'm no longer in retail. Grocery for ten years. Every stinking holiday is all about fleecing the public.
Thanksgiving... a day to be grateful for what we have is followed by the biggest day of gluttony and door bustin.
They even bastardized the true meaning of most holidays like Mothers Day.
sale!sale!sale!
"Love One Another" ~ George Harrison
LOL, thank you.
Holidays are the best example of why I am almost glad that I refuse to leave the house. I went to one of those Early Bird things at Wal-mart one time. I am still regretting it.
What is even worse for retail is that those holiday periods keep starting earlier each year and then now have to be followed up with additional days of sales. Kind of hard for Mother's Day, but I am sure they will think of a way to have it expand to a week after the fact...Happy Belated Mother's Day! Maybe they can have a Happy Early Mother's Day card that people can send a year early in case they forget their mother again the following year.
Ten years? You have a lot more patience than I do. = )
We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit.--Aristotle
If there is no struggle there is no progress.--Frederick Douglass
Mothers Day is actually an Anti-War Procolamation
thing with real meaning get turned into fluff. Fluff is all that matters in this country. How things appear rather than what they are.
I've never done a Black Friday. Never will. We are a nation of consumers.
"Love One Another" ~ George Harrison
LOL, I went. I didn't buy anything.
I so hate crowds. I had never been to one and wanted to see what got people all excited. I get a lot of stupid ideas like that. = )
How about a Happy Belated Mother's Day Protest March? The chants may be a bit long though with the list of wars we are currently in along with those we are trying to start. (I use "we" very, very loosely here. It is actually only a grammatical invention in this case.)
We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit.--Aristotle
If there is no struggle there is no progress.--Frederick Douglass
Just got laid off from a gift and flower company
After 3 years I hate hate hate xmas, v-day and m-day forever now.
All I need are some tasty waves, a cool buzz, and I'm fine. -- Jeff Spicoli
Sorry you were laid off bodysurfer
Black Friday has killed Thanksgiving. My daughter had to leave Thanksgiving day in order to work at 6pm for black friday where she worked. The buses to the mall don't run on holidays so all those people who commute there get stuck or brought/picked up.
It's so hard to even shop local and try to find stuff made in America that are actually made in America.
But one of my big pet peeves are people on cell phones while checking out. People who throw their tissues unto the belt or into the bag I'm bagging. Americans, in general, shit on people in retail.
"Love One Another" ~ George Harrison
Thanks for the kind words
I'm not that sorry -- the company was bought by a giant and outsourced a lot of the customer service to Manila. It's really sad.
Yeah, working for the public really makes you cynical.
You can find things made in America, but only if you're buying weapons or financial instruments.
All I need are some tasty waves, a cool buzz, and I'm fine. -- Jeff Spicoli
I quit because I didn't like who I was becoming
customer service/retail/food service... et al. Working with the public really is draining - physically and emotionally. A person can be kind and nice, but people as a whole are panicky, mean, hostile and quick to anger.
Also I had helped make a fairly new store become a huge success. You know what happens when you make your overlords happy and rich. They start screwing over the people who made them filthy rich. They start by cutting hours, make little 'rules', they start watching you. They start keeping secrets whereas before they were transparent. They build new buildings to house all the corporate peeps and then they have secret parties and only the upper management go.
"Love One Another" ~ George Harrison
Hey they have the machines primed...
...and ready to flip the election if needed. They're cheating their way to the nomination. How 'bout all the way to the white house?
“Until justice rolls down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream.”
Even worse than Hillary losing the election
is what Trump will do to her reputation. He will drag her through the mud so often and so deep that she will be viewed in disgrace for the rest of her life. And he won't have to lie or make stuff up. She has enough skeletons in her closet to keep him busy for quite a while.
I really believe that the Republicans have a video of one of her big bank talks, maybe more than one. I suspect they can prove laundering foreign money through the Clinton foundation and into her campaign. And they probably can prove that she approved of arms sales only after countries made generous contributions to the Clinton Foundation.
And I haven't even mentioned Bill and the 26 flights on the Lolita Express or the rumors of a rape. He's a goner, too.
I honestly feel sorry for both of them.
Life is strong. I'm weak, but Life is strong.
Not me.
It's long overdue.
"I’m a human being, first and foremost, and as such I’m for whoever and whatever benefits humanity as a whole.” —Malcolm X
Indeed. Screw them. They both
can kiss my bony flat white ass.
the little things you can do are more valuable than the giant things you can't! - @thanatokephaloides. On Twitter @wink1radio. (-2.1) All about building progressive media.
Interesting that you should mention that.
I ran into this last night:
FTC rejects congressional request to investigate Clinton Foundation
We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit.--Aristotle
If there is no struggle there is no progress.--Frederick Douglass
If Trump is smart,
and it may be that his instincts or advisers can make it appear that way, he will be an absolute gentleman, and just stick to criticism of her various conflicts of interest and foreign policy fuck-ups. if they manage to cast him as a bully, she will start gaining sympathy.
yep.
No need to take the low road. If he takes the high road he likely beats her.
the little things you can do are more valuable than the giant things you can't! - @thanatokephaloides. On Twitter @wink1radio. (-2.1) All about building progressive media.
Well, based on the hateful legislation that they enacted
during the Clinton regime, and her vote for War and more and more war as SOS, they have it coming, and deserve so much more than Trump will be able to level at them.
Criminals.
She's the most prepared awful prospective
candidate in U.S. history. Her resume length to likability ratio is second to none. She could definitely lose and has run the type of primary campaign that is destined to make any general election extremely perilous.
Check out Maureen Dowd's smackdown: http://mobile.nytimes.com/2016/05/22/opinion/sunday/weakend-at-bernies.h...
Goodie,
I love close games. This is going to be exciting for the country. I hope it's a dead heat and we have the first shared presidency in U.S. history, Trump and Clinton, co-presidents. That would be awesome. Imagine when they gave their state of the union address, it could be like the X-factor.
They had co-rulers in Rome....
Comment from S4P
I think that is an interesting point. He is dead set against Trump and probably sees him as a fascist [and might be right].
Life is strong. I'm weak, but Life is strong.
My take on this...that I just now thought of. = )
Sanders IS doing everything possible to make sure Trump does not win by campaigning very, very hard. In trying to get the nomination so the Democrats will have a winning candidate, he IS doing everything in his power. Now if HRC wants to cheat her way into the Democrats losing, that is on the Party's head, not Sanders' because they sanctioned, condoned and contributed to it.
Besides, even Sanders cannot turn a sow's ear into a silk purse.
We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit.--Aristotle
If there is no struggle there is no progress.--Frederick Douglass
And he has directly said that it doesn't matter
what he tells his supporters, they would support Hillary if she campaigned his platform. And not just put into the 'Platform' at the convention, but as the basis for the campaign, so that she was convincing, and so that it would be more difficult to wiggle out of her positions and justify embracing TPP, regime change, and further neoliberal rent leeching from the US public by her keepers on Wall St.
Her response: you get nothing, on your knees serfs!
For once honesty. She could never have been convincing claiming to rein in the looters.
Becuz he won't win
a 3-man race, especially as the Nader outsider.
the little things you can do are more valuable than the giant things you can't! - @thanatokephaloides. On Twitter @wink1radio. (-2.1) All about building progressive media.
That's an extremely outdated point of view.
In case you didn't notice, people *want* an outsider.
Also, people are so disgusted w/both the frontrunners they'd likely flock to any third choice in the general--which is something else to worry about, esp if the Dems try to shoehorn Biden in.
"More for Gore or the son of a drug lord--None of the above, fuck it, cut the cord."
--Zack de la Rocha
"I tell you I'll have nothing to do with the place...The roof of that hall is made of bones."
-- Fiver
Of course, the polls are always right.
I have to wonder whether the pollsters are even trying to pretend any more. I read a comment about the Rasmussen poll that said 80% of the pollees were over 45 years old, but I haven't been able to confirm that. If it's true, shouldn't those people be tarred and feathered?
the last CNN poll that had $$HILL beating Trump big...
The last CNN poll that had $$Hillary beating Trump big (13 points) was taken 5 weeks ago iirc, and the participants below age 45 were so few that they weren't represented in the data charts.
Anyone saying that $$Hillary has the electoral college all-locked-up is either a liar or a fool. Or is expecting Rovian levels of cheating.
I think the plan is a realignment of the parties.
Trump will have the racists and the disaffected. I think the plan is that he scare the relatively sane Repubs over to Clinton, marginalizing those of us who support Sanders. I'd hate to see things work out this way, because if they do, the country sinks deeper into oligarchy.
"The object of persecution is persecution. The object of torture is torture. The object of power is power. Now do you begin to understand me?" ~Orwell, "1984"
Exactly right. They are counting
on many Repubs to cross over rather than vote for The Donald; and for Berners, BernieBros and Berniecrats to stay home and whine, stomp their feet about how unfair it all was. And, sadly, that could play out. But it's the Only way she wins. I hate to say it, but possibly the Only way to beat Her Highness is to vote for The Donald.
the little things you can do are more valuable than the giant things you can't! - @thanatokephaloides. On Twitter @wink1radio. (-2.1) All about building progressive media.