Bernie's Magic Carpet Ride T-11: The NY Polling Trendlines

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We're featuring the NY polls every day until the election in 11 days on 19 April. NY has 247 delegates at stake. Plus, the little matter of momentum and narrative. Bernie met the delegate math target in his WI win of 57%.

He'll receive another little bounce in Wyoming tomorrow and then the magic carpet flies high as it can to get over the NY wall. Have you been noticing all the tremors beneath the other campaign and all the little cracks spreading throughout the NY wall? Cool, eh?
Below are the graphs from Huffpo. Also, Steppenwolf.

Here's Steppenwolf with my NY election prediction.

Update: from the Department of The Dogs Bark But The Caravan Marches On
Have a look at this nonsense from Bloomberg. We're gonna keep old Helmut here and laugh at him on 19 April.
http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-04-06/clinton-can-t-get-...

Helmut Norpoth, a political science professor at New York's Stony Brook University, said while Sanders has been “on a roll” lately, Sanders would need to buck historical trends and peel off a significant chunk of those superdelegates to have a shot at turning the contest around. He said New York is one of his last chances to make that case.
“If she lost, that would be a shock and that might really put some pressure on super-delegates,” Norpoth said of the New York primary. Given Clinton's deep political connections in New York, however, and a significant minority voting population more likely to favor Clinton, Norpoth said, Sanders is likely to find that “New York's going to be very difficult.”

Tsk, tsk, tsk, "very difficult"...bit of a faux clutch of faux pearls there, eh, Helmut?

NY Race

There has been no new public polling in NY this week. So the official race picture is static. Underneath the still surface of the pond though, the webbed feet of the waterfowl are paddling madly.

T-11

T-12

No change from T-12 all the way to T-15.
Lazy and chickenshit pollsters, grumble, grumble...

BTW: I wrote this on 1 April:
"The Bernie campaign turned the corner last night and the magic carpet ride is on. "All right, G! What are we smoking today?" :=) I've watched a whole lotta Bernie speeches. Last night's speech was in a whole different league. Remember the pleas for Bernie to "draw the contrasts" sharper? Heh, heh, heh, if you watched last night's speech, you woulda done the same chair dancing I did. He waited until NYC. Why? Bernie is smarter than us."
I stand by that even more today, T-11 :=)
http://caucus99percent.com/content/bernies-magic-carpet-ride-victory-beg...

National Race

Peace be with us, if we toughen our minds and work hard for Bernie's campaign,
gerrit

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Hillary campaign claim that blacks are their firewall.

Bernie gaining among blacks and Hispanics and over time as more people get to know him, he does better

Any thoughts about how Bill's comments will play in NY and PA?

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Gerrit's picture

lousy, very lousy. I think he set fire to her "black firewall," which turns out to have been nothing but a combination of low Bernie information, solid corporatist Dem elite support, and the south's conservative culture. When ordinary black folk get more information on Bernie, they do what everyone else does: go mad with delight :=) Best wishes,

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pfiore8's picture

Bill Clinton sounded mean and ... and I just want him to stop talking. because every time he opens his mouth, i remember voting for him twice, defending him despite the fact that he lied under oath . . . creep.

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“There are moments which are not calculable, and cannot be assessed in words; they live on in the solution of memory… ”
― Lawrence Durrell, "Justine"

Borkrom's picture

I just wish there was more polling for New York. My guess is there will be some either during the weekend or on Monday. It will be interesting to see any shifts. My bet is this race will be tightening.

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Gerrit's picture

of their reputations and try to avoid doing primary polling until they hafta. There's too much flux in the 2016 voting populations, because it is a seismic year of tectonic voter plates shifting fast.

I think you're right: the next polls will show tightening, perhaps significantly. Cheers mate,

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Borkrom's picture

How is the great white north treating you. Pacific Northwest- south of Seattle, it is beautiful today- sunny and low 70s. It is Friday, and trying to wrap up my day. I need to finish my last story about my Washington caucus experience- it will be done this weekend.

Take care and chat at you later.

By the way, polls are okay, but we need to get to voting.

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Gerrit's picture

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Resilience: practical action to improve things we can control.
3D+: developing language for postmodern spirituality.

I hate to say it, but the latest poll numbers seem to indicate the Hillary plan to "disqualify" Bernie had an effect.

The Daily News editorial board gave Bernie a rough time and front-paged a hit piece accusing him of callous disregard for the Sandy Hook victims. He was also accused, falsely, of not being able to answer questions about his plan to break up the big banks.

Hillary went on MSNBC's "Morning Joe," where she was asked if Bernie is qualified to be President. Joe Scarborough has NEVER asked this about Trump or any other candidate. She hinted that Bernie isn't qualified, saying:

Well, I think he hadn’t done his homework, and he’d been talking for more than a year about doing things that he obviously hadn’t really studied or understood, and that does raise a lot of questions.

The Washington Post then summarized Hillary's "Morning Joe" interview with this headline: “Clinton questions whether Sanders is qualified to be president” (undoubtedly the headline Hillary wanted). CNN quoted the Clinton campaign's deputy communications director, Christina Reynolds, saying that Sanders is "unqualified." The CNN report described the new strategy as: "Disqualify him, defeat him, and unify the party later."

In a campaign speech, Bernie hit back by raising the bar on qualifications for the presidency:

"Now the other day, I think, Secretary Clinton appeared to be getting a little bit nervous," began Sanders in front of thousands at Philadelphia's Temple University Wednesday night.

"And she has been saying lately that she thinks that I am, quote-unquote not qualified to be president," he said as the raucous crowd booed.

"Well let me just say in response, to Secretary Clinton, I don't' believe that she is qualified if she is…through her Super PAC, taking tens of millions of dollars in special interest funds," Sanders declared.

He went on to list a number of traits disqualifying someone from being president all directed squarely at Clinton — with the crowd cheering enthusiastically after each bullet point:

"I don't think that you are qualified if you get 15 million dollars from Wall Street through your Super PAC," said Sanders. "I don't think you are qualified if you have voted for the disastrous war in Iraq. I don't think you are qualified if you've supported virtually every disastrous trade agreement, which has cost us millions of decent paying jobs."

But perhaps his most forceful blow — and certainly newest for a candidate who is known for rarely straying from his normal stump speech — came on the subject of the controversial "Panama Papers" and its relation to the Panama Free Trade Agreement.

"I don't think that you are qualified if you supported the Panama Free Trade Agreement! Something I very strongly opposed and which, as all of you know has allowed corporations and wealthy people all over the world to avoid paying their taxes to their countries," Sanders concluded.

Then the Hillary campaign immediately claimed victim status because she herself didn't say the actual words "Bernie is not qualified to be President" during the "Morning Joe" interview. Hillary's press secretary Brian Fallon tweeted: "Hillary Clinton did not say Bernie Sanders was 'not qualified.' But he has now - absurdly - said it about her. This is a new low."

The Washington Post fact-checker sanctimoniously awarded Bernie "three Pinocchios" while letting his own paper off the hook, saying "Headline writing is an imperfect art."

Today Bernie walked back his previous criticism on NBC's "Today" show:

"Here's the truth. I've known Hillary Clinton for 25 years. I respect Hillary Clinton. We were colleagues in the Senate and on her worst day, she would be an infinitely better president than either of the Republican candidates," the Vermont independent said.

Asked if she's qualified, Sanders said, "Of course."

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"We've done the impossible, and that makes us mighty."

pfiore8's picture

and I wish he would stop saying he's going to support her. it is BAD strategy and that's what they're aiming for: they don't care if he attacks her. they are smarter than we give them credit for... him backing down is what they want. that opening, that remark: on her worst day she's better than any republican. . . of course i'd support her... and he talks about the Democrats and the divide. nope. that didn't make me happy.

it isn't what he wants to be doing. he MUST stay in his zone. if she gets him into hers, he is toast.

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“There are moments which are not calculable, and cannot be assessed in words; they live on in the solution of memory… ”
― Lawrence Durrell, "Justine"

Gerrit's picture

yet since last weekend. So there's no sign of it's effectiveness. I don't think it will amount to much.

I try to avoid the "noise" of the daily jousting - lots of clanging and banging - and focus on the "signal." And the best signal we have are poll aggregates and the trend lines on their graph.

Ask yourself this: "How effective have the Clinton smear machine been so far?"
Pretty lousy, right?

Now, sadly, their voter intimidation machine has been Rovian in it's effectiveness. I recommend ignoring the Clinton "noise" and work like crazy to counter their voter intimidation projects.

I hope that helps a bit. Have a great day my friend,

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Resilience: practical action to improve things we can control.
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truehawk's picture

Looks like they are reporting the results of the Automated Phone Emerson Poll as the current state of play.
And we KNOW you can't robodial a cell phone unless the person has opted in, so what we are looking at with 55-38 are people who still have landlines the "likely voter model, which pretty much excluded new registerants". I bet if you could look at the cross-tabs the sample comes predominately from over 55 women.

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SnappleBC's picture

If you remove Emerson from the equation the chart looks like this:

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A lot of wanderers in the U.S. political desert recognize that all the duopoly has to offer is a choice of mirages. Come, let us trudge towards empty expanse of sand #1, littered with the bleached bones of Deaniacs and Hope and Changers.
-- lotlizard

Borkrom's picture

Please note this was the same poll that had Bernie down by 48 last month. See the following article- he has reduced the gap from 48 points to 18 points. He just needs to keep up the big MO.

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/275634-poll-sanders-closes-gap-in-ny

Remember it is always darkest before the dawn.

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Gerrit's picture

spot-on. False Clinton comfort that one is. The next round of polls will balance it out. Cheers,

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Resilience: practical action to improve things we can control.
3D+: developing language for postmodern spirituality.