How to shoot yourself in the foot

“How did you go bankrupt?” Bill asked.
“Two ways,” Mike said. “Gradually and then suddenly.”

- from Ernest Hemingway’s 1926 novel, The Sun Also Rises.

If you do a Google search for "Russia Isolated" or if you watch any American news program, you will be assured that Russia is universally hated and our sanctions are crushing them.
And yet, this happened.

Exports of Russian crude oil to India have surged since the start of the month as sanctions bit in, forcing traders in Europe to avoid Russian cargos, the Financial Times reported, citing data from Kpler.

The average daily rate of Indian purchases of Russin crude has stood at 360,000 bpd, which was four times the rate of daily purchases last year, the report noted.

Remember all of that Russian oil that Europe will no longer buy? That oil is being rerouted to India, which is more than happy to buy it at a large discount. Doesn't India know that Russia has been isolated?
Thus India is directly undermining our Russia sanctions policy. So we're going to sanction India, right?

White House press secretary Jen Psaki has said Indian purchases of Russian oil would not run afoul of U.S. sanctions, but that Indian leaders should “think about where [they] want to stand when history books are written.”

So why would Washington simply let India do this without any repercussions?
In fact, India is reported to be very close to a rupee-rouble trade arrangement.
Meanwhile, the natural gas pipeline Pakistan Stream is under construction.
All of this is dwarfed by China.

Chinese purchases of oil from Russia in December surpassed its purchases from Saudi Arabia. Six days before the military campaign began, Russia announced a yearslong deal to sell 100 million tons of coal to China — a contract worth more than $20 billion. And hours before Russia began bombing Ukraine, China agreed to buy Russian wheat despite concerns about plant diseases.

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All of this is a sign of weakness.

You can see the politicians and talking heads on the news gloating and mocking Russia because they've been unable to simply overrun Ukraine. They seem to forget that the American military just LOST a war in Afghanistan.
The U.S. Empire is tottering and is about to fall.

All of this boasting that you hear of how our Russia policies are winning, is just as phony as the two decades of reports from Afghanistan.
China alone can keep Russia's economy from collapsing.

As long as China continues to maintain normal economic and trade ties with Russia, and even expand them, Russia’s economy will not collapse.

The United States wants to close this “big loophole” with China, possibly by extending the economic war against Russia to China, thus forcing China to either submit to the rule of US. sanctions or to have its economy destroyed together. This idea is crazy.

China is one of our biggest trade partners, and one of our biggest creditors. An economic war with China would be a massive risk.
Thus we need every single participant in our sanctions regime. Sanctioning southern Asia might drive nearly 2 billion people further into Russia's orbit. Damned if we do, and damned if we don't.

Dollar Hegemony might be all over anyway, depending on what Saudi Arabia decides.

Not for the first time, China is attempting to buy oil in yuan rather than dollars, and now it may have found a willing seller. Saudi Arabia, which sells a quarter of its exports to China, is considering making these sales in yuan, the Wall Street Journal reported.

These negotiations, which have surged and ebbed over the last half-decade, are not likely to fructify soon. For one, Saudi Arabia pegs its riyal to the dollar, so any damage inadvertently dealt to the dollar will hurt its own currency. But the US’ geopolitical hegemony is based so significantly on the petrodollar—with 80% of global oil transactions denominated in dollars—that the question is ever-present. What would the world look like if the petroyuan became the oil industry’s currency of choice?

The U.S. is neither the largest producer of oil in the world, nor the largest consumer. The only reason that all oil being sold in dollars is because of politics, wealth, and the size of a nation's military. The U.S. was all of that in the early 1970's when the petrodollar standard was agreed upon.
A lot has happened in 50 years.
The U.S. still has the biggest military far and away. Although it has a terrible record against popular insurgencies.
But wealth and political credibility? Those things left Washington a long time ago.
It's all being propped up with an artificially-strong dollar. Without dollar hegemony we will quickly become a much poorer nation.

The US’ abilities to issue dollar debt and earn dollars for exports would decline, so its economy would shrink. In this situation, the dollar’s weakening may trigger a vicious cycle: capital flight away from the dollar and towards the yuan, debilitating the dollar further.

Central banks all over the world are going to diversify their currency reserves away from the dollar, after seeing what we did to Russia's central bank. This should show up in the bond markets first, where Treasury prices should begin to fall. As everyone knows, yields are exactly inverted by the price. Which means interest rates will rise.
Once the dollar begins to drop, and the economy begins to look shaky, international hot money will flee our shores. We've seen this happen to other nations, but never cared. Now it will finally happen in this nation, and we aren't prepared for it.

The economy is over-saturated with debt, so rising interest rates will cause defaults and bankruptcy, on both the small and large scales. Everything that gets imported will begin to rise in price. It'll look something like 1970's stagflation, but it'll last longer.
The value of the dollar will probably be the last thing to collapse. Right before we have to slash the budget for our military, and around the same time that they try to steal Social Security again.

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CB's picture

Andrei Martyanov discusses the difference between the US and Russia.
[video:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wCRm7mwGMFo]

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Creosote.'s picture

@CB
in the precision of his views and the range of his English itself.
His comments brought to mind images of the special and annual day in Russia where an immense procession of people,
in the version I saw which incuded VVP, carry large photos of family members and friends who were kiled or died in WWII.
His books (2021, 2018) are readily available.
Many thanks.

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gulfgal98's picture

@CB Overall, I think most of what Martyanov said in this video is very close to being right. Of particular notice is what he said about the US never having experienced war on their home ground. This is something that many Americans have absolutely no idea about. Most Americans view war in the abstract while the Russians know it first hand. This is probably the one thing that frightens me most about how people in this country view war.

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Do I hear the sound of guillotines being constructed?

“Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable." ~ President John F. Kennedy

lotlizard's picture

I guess the market expectation is that the E.U. will be even more screwed economically than the U.S. in all this.

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@lotlizard .

Investors figure that the Sanctions War will hurt Europe more than they hurt the USA. Meanwhile the American stock market has RISEN steadily since March 8 when the initial decline triggered by war news bottomed out. As of the close of trading yesterday, the Dow had regained 1850 of the 4000 points it had lost since hitting an all time high of 36,799 on January 4 of this year. Most significantly, the Dow is right now higher than it was when the "war" started.

Obviously, the Big Money Players are not worried about this thing getting "out of hand." They are not infallible, of course, but when the Market Numbers are out of whack with the News, I humbly suggest that the market numbers are a more reliable indication of reality.

If these sanctions drag on like the pandemic turning endemic, they will destroy the West. Ergo, either that is the actual goal of all this insanity, or, the USA and its principal allies are all crazier than Hitler ever was. I have to call Godwin's Law on that idea, and I do not think this will last more than a few months at most -- and it could end at any time with some kind of deal between Russia and Ukraine.

My own paranoid hypothesis is that this Potemkin War is part of the Reset. The idiotic gamesmanship of Obama and Biden fucking around with Ukraine is a handy locus for moving the plan along -- ultimately to replace the Nation State System with a global technocracy. China and Russia are AHEAD of us in that project which is truly global.
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Factoid Question of the Hour: True or False? Did Putin go through the World Economic Forum's Young Global Leaders program? This is the sort of micro fact that is easy to hoke up, but devasting if true.

If false, I will be relieved to note that we might really be headed for World War III, which is, in my opinion, much less bad than enacting the dream of Klaus Schwab and his zillionaire buddies.

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I cried when I wrote this song. Sue me if I play too long.

CB's picture

@fire with fire @fire with fire
with Putin and the WEF.

Interview 1703 - Riley Waggaman on Russian Myths vs. Russian Reality
March 1, 2022

Riley Waggaman, aka "Edward Slavsquat," joins us today to dissect the propaganda myths that continue to swirl about Putin and Russia in the so-called alternative media and the sobering reality that Russia is neither singularly evil nor singularly good and that Putin is not a freedom fighter valiantly battling the globalists.

But the recent war in Ukraine may have changed this:

The Great Resetters Ban Putin from the WEF in Davos
March 13, 2022

“The World Economic Forum, best known as the host of an annual meeting of elites in Davos, Switzerland, says it’s freezing all its relations with Russian entities following the invasion of Ukraine,” the Huffington Post reported.

“Russian President Vladimir Putin last participated in the event at a virtual ‘Davos Agenda’ meeting in January 2021. Previously, he attended the event in person,” the report added.

Klaus Schwab used to have a friendly relationship with Putin, who even addressed the event one year.
...
They’ll have to reset and build back better without Vlad.

[video:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xc2JZ8mq2Ec]

[video:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hPClu1BeQIE]

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@CB
.
That is good enough for me.

It remains "unproven" that the World Economic Forum has any impact on anything. Maybe that organization is headquarters for all the apparent lunacy loose among the governments of the world. Or maybe they have no operational capacity other than Hot Air.

But the prior cozy relationship between the President of the Russian Federation and the World Economic Forum convinces me, as a gullible Conspiracy Theory Lunatic, that Putin's personal evil is perfectly OK with the Powers that Be. And his effort to clean up the mess created by American Knuckleheads in Ukraine is both necessary and perfectly in line with Great Power Logic, as I noted on a lonely thread a few days ago recalling the geopolitics of the Cuban Missile Crisis.

In 1962 the shit was real. But now they are all capitalists -- Russians, Chinese and all their trading partners. The Ruling Class of the world is uniting against all the ignorant and far too numerous shlubs of the world.
.

Or maybe it all makes some kind of sense that I am not getting. Could anybody show a good way forward in all this?

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I cried when I wrote this song. Sue me if I play too long.

CB's picture

@fire with fire
In this episode, Trudeau morphs into Putin. The OLD World Order needs to be collapsed in order to bring in a NEW World Order of total control.

We all know that when a politician walks like a globalist, talks like a globalist, acts like a globalist and quacks like a globalist, that means they're a globalist, right? And what about when that politician comes out with an unbelievable, in-your-face endorsement of the UN-led Agenda 2030 to remodel the world order and lead us into the maws of the 4th Industrial Revolution and the Great Reset in the name of "sustainable development." Then we all know they're a globalist, right? Well, get a load of this. . . .

Episode 416 - SHOCKING Document Reveals Trudeau's REAL Plan!
03/19/2022

SHOW NOTES:

  • Klaus Schwab Bragging About Infiltrating World Governments | The Great Reset WEF
  • Canada to send more lethal aid to Ukraine, intends to ban crude oil imports from Russia | FULL
  • Announcing mandatory vaccination for the federal workforce and transportation sectors
  • The Canadian MEDIA $600M BAILOUT Exposed! - What You NEED To Know!
  • PM Justin Trudeau speaks at inaugural global summit on artificial intelligence – December 4, 2020
  • Justin Trudeau Admires Communist China's "Basic Dictatorship"
  • Joint Statement on the International Relations Entering a New Era and the Global Sustainable Development
  • Klaus Schwab Bragging About Infiltrating World Governments | The Great Reset WEF
  • Russia's Putin announces 'military operation' in Ukraine
  • Putin Signs "Fake News" and "Internet Insults" Bill
  • Censorship, arrests, shutdowns: Putin crushes Russian media | The Listening Post
  • Protester arrested by Russian jackboots for holding sign that says "Two Words"
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin says country needs to step up vaccination campaign
  • Russia : Moscow, St. Petersburg and Perm Restaurants to "Hire" Robots to Check Qr Codes of Vaccinate
  • Putin and Herman Gref at Sberbank's Artificial intelligence conference
  • Putin praises China's achievements in combating COVID-19
  • Vladimir Putin says he drove a taxi after fall of Soviet Union
  • Special Address by Vladimir Putin, President of the Russian Federation | DAVOS AGENDA 2021
  • Episode 381 - Who Will Fact Check the Fact Checkers?
  • "Putin and Kissinger have maintained warm personal relations over a number of years"
  • "Putin and Kissinger have held more than a dozen meetings"
  • Putin Welcomes Kissinger: ‘Old Friends’ to Talk Shop?
  • "No War" an arrestable offence in Russia, even printing photos of "No War" graffiti is illegal
  • Sputnik V: What you're not being told
  • Sputnik V is a scam
  • Russia's Gamaleya Research, UK-Swedish Astrazeneca Sign Memorandum of Cooperation in COVID-19 Fight
  • Trump calls vaccines the "greatest achievement"
  • Trump brags that he's boosted, admonishes hecklers
  • World Economic Forum Freezes ‘All Relations’ With Russia to Dodge Sanctions
  • Interview 1703 - Riley Waggaman on Russian Myths vs. Russian Reality
  • Russia Joins Centre for the Fourth Industrial Revolution Network
  • 10 Signs The War In Ukraine Is Part Of The Great Reset
  • Is the Narrative Shifting? Or Is This Phase 2 Mass Psychosis?
  • ESG muscle flexing
  • China and Russia Creating "Alternate" Banking System
  • China’s Digital Yuan May Aid Russia Bypass SWIFT Ban, But Will It?
  • Bank of Russia Proceeds With Digital Ruble, Renews Push for Crypto Ban
  • Zelensky Receives Standing Ovation From EU Parliament in Emotional Scenes
  • Episode 369 - Globalization is Dead. Long Live the New World Order!
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@lotlizard
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I look at the trade-weighted index, rather than the traditional euro-centric index.

It's also early in this development. Bretton-Woods II didn't happen overnight. It won't end quickly either.
By the time we hear about these moves being made, the insiders will already be positioned. The only way that you can beat the markets is to foresee the long-term trend.

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lotlizard's picture

@gjohnsit  
I’m only really forced to notice what the exchange rate is doing once a month, when Social Security paid in USD appears in my EUR bank account.

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gulfgal98's picture

I am so glad that you tackled this subject which is one that I have been watching.

The question I have been asking myself and have seen others asking recently is "are we seeing the inevitable demise of the petrodollar?" The 800 pound gorilla which is the United States may have pushed its weight just a little too far for even many of our closest allies to feel comfortable with. The fact that representatives of both Saudi Arabia and the UAE refused to take recent calls from Joe Biden is significant. India dealing directly with Russia indicates that the new power alliances in the world are openly taking effect. Is this the new BRICS?

I read somewhere (which I cannot find) that the petrodollar is the biggest bubble in the world. Our waging of wars all over the globe has been the US hegemony's way of keeping the petrodollar as the world's reserve currency. However, it does not take a genius to see that the empire is crumbling. COVID was a prime example of how unprepared the United States was and continues to be when faced with a significant challenge. The US has 1/20 of the world's population but has suffered 1/5 of the world's COVID deaths. In addition, while other countries such as China have made significant investments in infrastructure, the infrastructure in the United States is outdated, crumbling, and in some cases, such as our power grid, very vulnerable to terrorist attacks. Instead of investing in its own citizens and its infrastructure, the United States continues to waste trillions of dollars on the war machine. We are overly dependent upon other nations for a huge amount of our goods which makes us extremely vulnerable to boycotts and supply chain problems too.

The United States is a weakened empire limping on its last legs propped up only by the petrodollar. If the petrodollar goes away or is significantly weakened, very hard times lie ahead for the United States and its citizens. We are seeing the cracks. The only question is how long will it take for the empire to collapse.

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Do I hear the sound of guillotines being constructed?

“Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable." ~ President John F. Kennedy

CB's picture

In this episode of TNT Radio's Perspectives with Jesse Zurawell, Matt Ehret was invited to speak about the origins of eugenics, and how this cultish ideology masquerading as a science transmogrified into new costumes after WWII shaping the transhumanist movement, ecologism, the cult of artificial intelligence and much more. We also discuss the clash between open vs closed system paradigms now underway between the unipolar Trans Atlantic neoliberal order vs the multipolar Eurasian partnership.
[video:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A6hN_wsnJGI]

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