Welcome to Saturday's Potluck - 10-30-2021
“Learn the rules like a pro, so you can break them like an artist.”
Pablo Picasso
Taiwan, one of the hotpots for potential of a major war since the retreat of the Nationalist Army and Republic of China leaders in 1949 has been increasingly strident for attention again since United States left Afghanistan. A coordinated propaganda campaign appears to be attempting to prod China into an action that may be responded to with military action.
Wall Street Journal broke the story this month Marines have been in Taiwan training troops for the past year.
A bombshell Wall Street Journal report has revealed (and confirmed) that an elite contingent of special operations Marines has been deployed to Taiwan for at least the past year - a revelation sure to outrage Beijing amid ongoing charges that the US has effectively abandoned the status quo One China policy.
Citing US officials with knowledge of the program, the report details that "About two dozen members of U.S. special-operations and support troops are conducting training for small units of Taiwan’s ground forces," and that "The U.S. Marines are working with local maritime forces on small-boat training." It's the first such openly confirmed US training deployment in support of local forces since 1979. Taiwan media previously reported it, but this is the first time US officials are providing confirmation.
Taiwan is geographically important as part of the First Island Chain to contain China. Its population is rather small and decreasing.
The Taiwan issue will fade away – literally
The island has the lowest birth rate of any political entity and will lose its importance over the next 50 years
Relegating Taiwan’s status to the indefinite future has been a matter of tacit agreement between the United States and the People’s Republic of China since Richard Nixon went to Beijing in 1972.
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Its total fertility rate stands at barely one child per female. Taiwan has 23 million people today, fewer than large Mainland cities like Chengdu, Chongqing or Shanghai. Its demographic decline will sap its relative importance over time.
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Projecting this into the future, the United Nations, in its “medium variant” forecast, has Taiwan’s elderly dependent ratio at about 80 by mid-century – every 100 workers will have to support 80 elderly. That’s almost double the projected ratio for the People’s Republic of China.
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I reviewed the military balance in my 2020 book You Will Be Assimilated: China’s Plan to Sino-Form the World, and concluded that no one would be crazy enough to start a war on China’s coast.After reading recent suggestions from John Bolton, Gary Schmitt and Michael Mazza, and Dan Blumenthal, I stand corrected. There are influential folk who are crazy enough. In general, they are the same people who wasted $5 trillion on nation-building in Iraq and Afghanistan, rather than investing, for example, in ways to protect the US and its assets from hypersonic missiles.
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The stench of cultural pessimism pervades the American war party: Like the French in 1914, they believe that if they do not fight now, they may never have the opportunity to do so in the future. Germany had far outstripped France in population and industrial might, and the gap would only widen.The French diehards of 1914 became the defeatists of 1940 who surrendered to the Germans in six weeks.
By no means should the United States abandon Taiwan. It must raise the cost of a possible Chinese incursion without pushing China into a corner from which it will lash out.
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The United States may depend on China for imports worth 27% of its manufacturing output, but Americans will go without smartphones and computers in order to punish China for use of force.
Professor Explains History of China, Taiwan, and Hong Kong, Pre-2010 (lecture May 28, 2020)
[video:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aC7SZoKaZog]
All calm in Taiwan in the face of Chinese threats
Many Taiwanese see China's recent fighter jet incursions as more of a show than preparation for an all-out invasion
Many Taiwanese see the Chinese military display as more of a show than a preparation for an all-out invasion. There are several reasons being China’s “show of force” in recent days, pointing to short- and medium-term goals.
Domestically, the military pressure serves Chinese President Xi Jinping’s propaganda and political agenda. Xi’s defining political idea is promoting the “China Dream” to his people, which partly entails becoming “a strong nation with a strong army.”
China had just had its National Day celebration on October 1 and a public show of force is a visual embodiment of that narrative. China’s nationalist Global Times newspaper even went so far as to call the flight incursions a form of a National Day “military parade.”
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Taiwan’s main opposition party, the Kuomintang (KMT), has also just elected a new leader after a party campaign focused primarily on Taiwan’s policy towards China.The new chairman, Eric Chu, who ran on an American-friendly foreign policy platform, won a humble victory with 45% of the votes in a tight, four-way race. Chu has since promised to be a unifier who will listen to other voices in his party and has pledged to renew stalled talks with China.
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Another reason why Taiwanese people are not very alarmed by the increasing number of Chinese warplanes is simply the law of diminishing impact over time.People are used to this type of low-intensity Chinese military provocation. In fact, they have been living in the near-constant presence of Chinese military and diplomatic pressure for more than a quarter of a century.
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So what is Beijing’s ultimate plan?According to hawkish General Qiao Liang, the plan is “strategic patience.”
This means waiting until the cross-strait military balance tilts further in China’s favor, using the military option only when it can comprehensively overwhelm Taiwan and disincentivize or even deny American military intervention.
And politically, Beijing aims to use the gravity of its economy to attract Taiwanese youth opinion leaders and slowly build back Taiwanese support for eventual unification. In this approach, economic incentives replace soft power, which Beijing is lacking at the moment.
Joseph Wu, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Taiwan was in Australia earlier this month drumming up support for preparation on war with China.
Prior to entering politics, he was an academic political scientist, finishing his PhD in political science in 1989 at Ohio State University. He wrote his doctoral thesis on progress and obstacles to democratization in Taiwan. [2] He served as a teacher and research assistant in the political science department of Ohio State University in the United States, and as deputy director of the Institute of International Relations of National Chengchi University in Taiwan.
Taiwan has also welcomed the recent establishment of the AUKUS strategic partnership between Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States, as well as the growing activity between the Quad allies, the US, India, Australia and Japan.
"We are pleased to see that the like-minded partners of Taiwan — the United States and the UK and Australia — are working closer with each other to acquire more advanced defence articles so that we can defend Indo-Pacific.
Defence analyst Professor Clinton Fernandes from the University of New South Wales warns it would be difficult for the US and allies to prevent any invasion attempt by China.
Australia's place in the world has completely changed
A composite image of Joe Biden, Xi Jinping, and Scott Morrison.This week's moves – the announcement that Australia may build submarines with US and British technology and news of more US troops rotated here – fundamentally change our relationship with the world.
Read more"The military centre of gravity is China's air defence system in the south, it has the ability to deny the United States control of the air — if the United States cannot control the air, it cannot win either at land or at sea."
Professor Fernandes doesn't believe China will launch any military strike on Taiwan before next year's Beijing Winter Olympics but warns something more coercive is likely ahead of the US presidential elections in 2024.
"The defence of Taiwan is predicated on a Chinese invasion – but if China's main effort is not an invasion but a blockade, then what? Taiwan doesn't have a Plan B – that's the big problem."
While we can keep up with the news many of the plans and actions by the countries involved are State Secrets. The actions leading up to the 1958 crisis almost leading to nuclear war did not become public until this year. When Daneil Ellensburg released a 691 page memorandum (link to pdf)in May.
Gregory Clark a former Australian diplomat summed up his opinion on the ramifications of the 1958 crisis.
Long-term ramifications
It is hard to underestimate the harm done to Western foreign policies as a result of this good Soviet Communist/bad Chinese Communist mistake.
In October 1962 the first of the Sino-Indian border clashes over the McMahon Line had occurred. On Canberra’s China desk we had the maps showing clearly that the Indian side had transgressed. But the image, and the propaganda, of the Chinese as the bad, aggressive Communists on the move into South Asia prevailed.
Henry Kissinger has since said that this exaggerated fear of China in turn was a great factor in the US decisions to intervene in Vietnam and to back Indonesia over East Timor, as well as a host of other Cold War decisions.
There was a strange twist to this good Soviet Communist/bad Chinese Communist fallacy.When I was working in Australia’s Moscow embassy in November 1964, shortly after Khrushchev’s fall in October that year, we received an urgent message calling for us to arrange a meeting between Australian foreign minister Paul Hasluck and the top Soviet leadership. Hasluck had an important message (later we discovered it was from Washington) to deliver.
Ushered into a Kremlin inner sanctum with the standard green baize table, Hasluck said the West had taken note of Moscow’s problems with China along its borders. We had similar problems with an aggressive China, in Vietnam. It was time, he said, for Moscow to use its “power” to join us in Vietnam to stop further aggression.
At this point there was a break in the talks as Soviet premier Alexei Kosygin set out to correct the interpreter. “Power” in Russian had been interpreted as sila, which can also mean “force,” and the Soviet Union would never use force, he said.
With that cleared up, we went back to the talks. But when the full stupidity of the Australian/US proposal was clear – that the USSR should join with the US and Australia to fight North Vietnam (then seen by Canberra as a Chinese puppet), Kosygin and foreign minister Andrei Gromyko drew back in amazement. The USSR, intoned Kosygin, would always be steadfast in its support for the brave Vietnamese and wished the Chinese would do more.
In other words, if there really was some danger in Asia for Canberra to fret over, then it was Moscow, not Beijing, that was on the aggressive prowl in Asia.
End of bad Communist/good Communist myth? Not quite. It continues through to today and will get another kick along as the US tries to sort out its differences with Moscow over Ukraine by the simple act of agreeing to enforce the 2015 Minsk Agreements at the Biden-Putin summit next month. The aim of the United States is to be able once again to concentrate its energies on those “bad actors” in China.
Meanwhile Beijing will finally decide it is time to do something about Taiwan, most likely by yet another move against those Offshore Islands. Watch this space.
What is on your mind today? (Responses to Covid questions and dialog to be conducted at The Dose diary)
Comments
Good Morning
A serious understatement.
The US foreign policy is a disaster.
We invest in warmongering in places like Taiwan, Ukraine, Poland etcetera
imparting our form of 'democracy' invariably destroying any sane sense of
democratic institutions for the sake of the arms industry.
Bullies for the empire.
The US foreign policy in a nutshell.
This in no-way represents the spirit of Americans that I know.
Enjoy your Saturday
question everything
Part of studing foreign policy is coming to the
Within this social structure we need to stay healthy, mobile, clear minded and aware of supervision methods. The most annoying actions to the Maggots seems to be simply the enjoying life and building communities without paying them a toll, tithe or worship.
Still yourself, deep water can absorb many disturbances with minimal reaction.
--When the opening appears release yourself.
You got that right
A wonderful way of seeing our options.
The difference between seeing what we got
and what we got to learn. You are so cool.
question everything
Good morning SOE and C99
Another wet morning. Light showers and chilly now.
I'm hopeful we''ll avoid the Thucydides's Trap, but the US is so small minded about cooperation, and would rather work to fulfill Raytheon, Lockheed, Boeing, etc greed for war profits. My sister is teaching in Taiwan, so I hope a war can be avoided.
I keep thinking China and Russia might come out with a gold backed currency and take out the US economically by collapsing the USD. Probably a pipe dream.
I'm to the point where I see the US as one of the most evil empires of recent history. It makes me ashamed of what this nation has become...not that it was ever very good.
Thanks for the updates, and let's hope we can accept the idea of a multipolar world.
Thanks for the OT and hope things are well on the homestead!
“Until justice rolls down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream.”
Independant Voices around the world are raising up to
Formosa is a beautiful part of the world. I have fond memories of visiting the island staying in Taipei and traveling around Taiwan. The people living there due not deserve to become causalities of Western Christian powers trying to keep their last remaining foothold of control in Chinese territory. And we due not deserve the loss of American lives within our own communities and families.
Still yourself, deep water can absorb many disturbances with minimal reaction.
--When the opening appears release yourself.
A very good analysis
Thank you.
I really can't understand Chinese obsession with Taiwan. It will inevitably fall to them. Taiwan is economically dependent on China and few younger Taiwanese share the dreams of their grandfathers for a victory over Communism.
Using carrots rather than sticks, China could rather easily (and certainly inevitably) entice a Taiwanese bid for reunification. The US warhawks would not have a leg to stand on. Ethnic bonds (extremely important in Asia) and economic rescue would certainly prevail.
I suppose China has their versions of General Jack D. Ripper and Donald Trump also. Local Taiwanese officials, of course, do not want to give up their power and prestige.
US intervention would be like China trying to stop a US invasion of Cuba.
Futile and in the worst case causing a global nuclear war.
However, I believe a reunification by force would be a major strategic mistake by China. I guess they can make them too.
EDIT:
God! I hope lyin' Biden isn't pulling out of the Middle east just to start a new Asian adventure! Did we learn NOTHING from Korea and Vietnam?
I've seen lots of changes. What doesn't change is people. Same old hairless apes.
Western powers do not have the luxury of time and
Our wars and police actions in countries bordering China have not ended well for Americans.
Still yourself, deep water can absorb many disturbances with minimal reaction.
--When the opening appears release yourself.
China has populated Taiwan for more than 1,000 years
(There are a tiny handful of indigenous Taiwanese and they have little to do with government.)
China has no intention of attacking Taiwan. The thought is absurd. For 70 years China has waited to reunite with Taiwan and it can wait for a thousand more years, says China. A substantial percentage of the Taiwanese people would like to reunite with China. But this is not a political concern. Socially, the a Taiwanese majority vacation in China and their children go to school in China. And many Chinese do the same in Taiwan. The people know who they are and what they want.
The US is trying to install NATO in Taiwan and bring in nuclear missiles to point at China. That's what all these lies and fake news about China's military vis a vie Taiwan is all about.
The map in the essay is wrong. It is designed to mislead Americans.
Most Americans have never seen an accurate map of China that includes Taiwan. Almost every map of China published by the US has Taiwan airbrushed out or relocated elsewhere and distorted in size. Even NASA continuously publishes fake maps of China. For shame.
Carry a burning candle and share the light.
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Map was included to illustrate the first two lines in
Island Chain Strategy developed after World War II by John Foster Dulles. The two red lines were more important to the diary than relative size and placement of Taiwan.
theStill yourself, deep water can absorb many disturbances with minimal reaction.
--When the opening appears release yourself.
You are right.
And the purpose of the map is an important distinction, especially at the time it was made. I've actually seen Chinese maps with a similar trade routes marked, although inclusive of Taiwan.
I did not mean to criticize your fine essay in any way. My comment is inspired by the relentless US push to trigger an economic hot war with China — ultimately using lies and misrepresentations about Taiwan as a helpless democracy that fears an invasion by China. This is completely ridiculous for so many reasons. Too many to go into.
But to address the key saber-rattling issue: China is very much an interactive democracy — demonstrably more credible than the faux Democracy of the US.. China has eight political parties, and all of them attend the government sessions and events. Of course, the party that led the Chinese people to prosperity, the CCP, is enormously popular. In China, citizens vote for their government representatives, like in any other democracy. Arguably, the most successful democracies are those deeply committed to enacting the will of the People through consensus. But in China, citizens are also invited to interact directly with the governing process by submitting suggestions and proposals. Around ten thousand of these are received, and each one is logged and evaluated. Several of these ideas will be included in China's next Five-Year Plan. All of them together inform the planning committees of the people's moods and expectations. Some of the citizen-authors are invited to attend the Party Congress.
US democracy offers no comparison. it's no secret that industries and large corporations have captured American Democracy to use for their own benefit. Corporations now own private contracts to preform government services. These can be squeezed for enormous personal gain, while pushing the people down into helpless despair.
So, the absurdity of the US attacking China as an enemy of democracy is breathtakingly preposterous. Yet it is a dangerous lie, since the American people are fully uninformed about China and are trained to react violently to patriotic trigger words. Even though the Chinese government's planning sessions are attended by foreign observers and delegations from all over the world, it's not enough to defeat the propaganda. China has been remiss in reaching out to the brainwashed masses in capitalist, warring nations — and teaching them about Chinese Democracy. China had assumed that making huge improvements in the lives of its citizens would earn the admiration and trust of the world's masses. This was true for developing and emergent nations. But China was unprepared for the fear, envy, and panic coming from the US and its allies and political concubines. They fill their people's empty heads with a barrage of outrageous lies and slander. President Trump's China policy made both Republicans and Democrats swoon. China hate was the surprise key to unifying the nation.
Essays like yours are a welcome opportunity to expose the lies and get the truth out to the people before their nation starts World War III. Hope you continue along this line with your excellent essays.
Carry a burning candle and share the light.
.
The clarification of the map is important.
Still yourself, deep water can absorb many disturbances with minimal reaction.
--When the opening appears release yourself.
Good grief...
I'd say you can't be serious, but you apparently *are* which is not any improvement.
In what way, precisely, is Taiwan 'Christian controlled' or 'western controlled' as you describe it elsewhere? True, they are dependent on western countries for their weapons, but then so is Saudi Arabia and to a considerable extent, Israel. Are they western or Christian-controlled? Neither is Taiwan.
What Taiwan is is a whole lot more functional democracy than the US can claim to be at present. Multi-ethnic and prosperous. And was well on the road to prosperity before China adopted pro-capitalist reforms - although both sides have clearly benefitted from bilateral trade.
No, the Taiwanese are not interested in re-taking China, but they are about determining their own destiny. And the CCP (nor anyone else) have the right to impose it. Whether they were once controlled by China is neither here nor there. Israel once controlled parts of Lebanon, Syria, Iraq... does that mean they deserve it back now?
Maybe the Turks deserve Greece and Serbia? Then again, the Greeks used to occupy a fair bit of Turkey, maybe they should have that back...
Huh? True, from the Opium Wars through post-WWII foreigners did exercise undue influence on China's trade, but haven't since and where is there any indication that they seek it? Traffic through the Taiwan Straits and South China Sea should be unhindered and is about all that is being asked.
The *only* country that seems to have a problem with that is - China.
True, but the same can be said for China's military confrontations with its neighbors.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Vietnamese_War
Been trying to understanding the scope of the
Economically wealthy have the option of leaving an area before an armed conflict happens. Most of the local population does not. If a war happens deliberately or "accidentally" the residents of Taiwan lives will be destroyed.
Why don't we let their democratic process organically happen without outside pressure? Let their residents decide not international corporations, organized religion or foreign governments.
Top Democrats Unite With Christian Far Right to Bash China Religious freedom: the new front in the New Cold War.
Still yourself, deep water can absorb many disturbances with minimal reaction.
--When the opening appears release yourself.
@studentofearth
I'm good with that. BTW - how interested do you think the Chinese Communist Party leadership is in having the "democratic process organically happen" in China? Tibet? Hong Kong?
Different populations have differing ideas on democracy.
This thread of comments touches the subject of China using a different type of democratic process. It is an idea to explore. Peoples Republic of China is not perfect but they should have the right for self determination.
Republic of China (Taiwan) has a voting process to determine if the majority of their citizens believe moving forward with succession is right choice for their future. If they vote for succession I don't see why my neighbors, friends and family members need to suffer hardship or death to "save democracy" in a part of the world they had no political voice.
American imposed democracy at recently seems more of a psyop. The use of democratic ideas, planned protests and contesting unfair elections are used to change governments not aligned with United States' policies.
American style democracy, our shining beacon on the hill inspiring the world, is losing its luster. We need to work in our own country to have a functioning democracy responsive to the peoples needs and desires.
What People Around the World Like – and Dislike – About American Society and Politics
Thanks for the discussion, clarifying some thoughts for me.
Still yourself, deep water can absorb many disturbances with minimal reaction.
--When the opening appears release yourself.
Good afternoon, fellow observers of the Great Decline.
I doubt if China is as fixated on Taiwan as we are.
I have read that China is Taiwan's biggest trade partner. There is money and stability in simply carrying on as they are.
We are having some cool nights in the high 40s here, and I sleep much better in cold than in heat.
I did purchase a 2022 Hyundai Tuscon yesterday. Well, last night, to be precise. Unfortunately, my insurance office was closed, so I will not have it insured until Monday. I will put off taking a little test drive vacay until next weekend.
I think I will do some cooking projects today, and count my blessings myself and my family are healthy and pretty darn happy.
"We'll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American public believes is false." ---- William Casey, CIA Director, 1981
China appears to be more fixated on addressing International
Here are replies to three questions regarding Taiwan by Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Wang Wenbin's at his Press Conference on Thursday.
Still yourself, deep water can absorb many disturbances with minimal reaction.
--When the opening appears release yourself.
Congrats on your SUV
I'm shopping for a car, too, but not a new one. Anyway, I've looked at late model Tucsons, and I really like them.
Far be it from me to give legal advice to a lawyer, but I've been reading about cars a lot. It sticks in my mind that it is a national regulation that all car insurers must fully insure your new car with the same general coverage you have (with or without notification) for at least five business days. Perhaps longer. I may have seen that at the NICB https://www.nicb.org
Enjoy your ride.
Carry a burning candle and share the light.
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Texas gives a 2 day grace period. My insurance is vague,
I never thought I would enjoy a frumpy car as much as I am. After I started making the deal, I found it is the highest rated in its' class, and is also the least expensive. Lots of bang for the buck. I would not have hesitated to get a used one. I got the most basic model. It has plenty of bells and whistles, and I couldn't see going up to the next level.
Good luck on your shopping!
"We'll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American public believes is false." ---- William Casey, CIA Director, 1981
https://twitter.com/ny
https://twitter.com/ny_indivisible/status/1453442020404563968?s=20
NYCVG
Gold Medallion issue has been a slow moving
Still yourself, deep water can absorb many disturbances with minimal reaction.
--When the opening appears release yourself.
Time is on China's side
Provocations from the hedgemon will poke and prod until a responce is required.
Small contingents of US trainers and techs have been on the island servicing the military equipment sold to the ROC forces for years now.
Nothing new there.
Stationing troops and warcraft on the island would be a red line to the mainland.
How far will the hedgemon push? It will probably happen during the Winter Olympics in a effort the ruin any hope of a successful hosting of the games.
IMHO
Neither Russia nor China is our enemy.
Neither Iran nor Venezuela are threatening America.
Cuba is a dead horse, stop beating it.
The leaking of the Marines on Taiwan was probably
Still yourself, deep water can absorb many disturbances with minimal reaction.
--When the opening appears release yourself.
Taiwan is not the only democracy in China
For a different viewpoint:
Is Taiwan a democracy?
Or is it a democracy like the City of Chicago is a democracy?
I've seen lots of changes. What doesn't change is people. Same old hairless apes.
Not sure about shy town
but democracy only exists in ones programmed imagination
don't think the term matters much in Taiwanese minds
question everything
The nuanced understanding of different types of democracy
The referenced article is interesting and hopeful. It appears China is going to attempt to teach the world about different types of democracy: whole-process people's democracy vs one person one vote.
[video:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NMs_cNtkG4I]
Still yourself, deep water can absorb many disturbances with minimal reaction.
--When the opening appears release yourself.
China believes it is a Democracy
In fact, China sees its democracy as far more inclusive and effective than US democracy.
For the past 100 years, the Chinese people of Hong Kong — under British rule — did not have the right to vote. It was China that gave them the vote when Hong Kong was reunited with China. How ludicrous it is to hear brainwashed Americans fret about Hong Kong's democracy! It was China that gave them that Democracy.
As Chinese President Xi Jinping puts it: "Chinese democracy is the broadest, most genuine, and most effective democracy to safeguard the fundamental interests of the people."
In their own words:
Why China's socialist democracy is the most effective democracy
Carry a burning candle and share the light.
.
The US is now ramping up those efforts
Meanwhile in a different part of the world. Just another day!
Oh, fuck that
Israel is doing some kinda absorption thing.
Behind US absolution. It all sucks with empire stupidity.
What about the rights of palestinians?
Does no one else in the world hear what a sucking sounds like?
They have no right to another's land. Period.
Go back to Jerusalem and sort out your greedy BS.
question everything
A couple of cartoons depicting how I now feel.
guessing it must be candy corn
licorice sticks in your teeth
Biden is stuck in some vague candy coated delusion
therefore, it must be candy corn
question everything