The physics of the Democratic party demise
Don't worry, this article will not be filled with wonderful mathematic formulas, but is to be inferred in a perhaps allegorical way.
First a statement of the constituents in the physical problem present: political parties. Currently, there are "two" primary political parties, which is more semblance than reality. Multiple minor other parties are always present but only rarely replace a major party, such as the end of the Whig party before our first civil war (what's the second civil war? We're in it now).
Then there is the necessary confined space which the pressure/volume (PV) relation necessitates.
We actually have, for purposes of national politics two fixed-volume containers, known as the Senate and the House of Representatives. Let us fix our gaze upon the more capacious of the two chambers, the House of Representatives (HR). Fixed by law HR can only have a fixed number of constituents. Although there can be fewer constituents (and by constituents, I do NOT include the voting or non-voting public, but only those elected (selected) to allegedly perform the duties of office. Ostensibly those duties were fiduciary in respect to the population: decisions were supposed to be made in relationship to the COMMON good, however that may be envisioned. Now of course the fiduciary duties have been appropriated by campaign donors, in whatever form the monetary infusions are made.
So the heart of the PV is that for a fixed volume, at a fixed temperature, only so much material can fit a given container in order to maintain a fixed pressure. The container currently contains 415 components, maximum. These components exist in many sizes, shapes, colors, and odors inside the container. Adding more constituents into the already filled container is impermissible because of Constitutional limitations. The chamber was purposely designed to contain a certain volume.
Who are the constituents? At the current time, I believe all are either red or blue, but in some past configurations, a few "trace elements" find their way into the chamber, before they are chased out by the big players who don't want any "outside" competition.
The current contents of the container are red and blue. Theoretically each red and each blue member represents a certain hardness which prevents them to be compressed. In that way, the "molecules" exert counterpressures against each other, proportionate to the relative numbers. I hope I haven't lost too many of you so far.
But in certain situation, the "hardness" of the constituents varies. When one of the two major constituents become numerically inferior by a significant amount (a not readily definable number), all the members of the constituent class lose "hardness" and thus are compressed by the other major constituent class.
In political terms, this means that when the Democrats lose a certain amount of numbers in the chamber, they ALL lose influence, so that Republicans expand in power to fill the lapse in Democratic counter-pressure. In other words, a once formidable obstacle to Republicans has become so weakened as to not to be able, with their current chamber constituents, to engage in significant legislative "pressure" or counter pressure.
Where is this all leading? Remember, every two years constituents are reassembled within the chamber. In 2018, the Democratic party, already hit by waves of desertion, will be further weakened--and in some cases willingly--by those in power resistant to change. Approximately half of the pre-2016/Bernie Democratic party still remaining amongst possible voters have abandoned the Democratic Party.
One-half of the D party, either through non-voting, cross-over voting, third party voting, will NOT return to the D party. Establishment D's would sooner lose to an R than to a Progressive. This has been shown time after time. Despite disillusionment with Trump, for which there is great cause, non-R's may yet vote for R's and the majority of disaffected former D's will go elsewhere. There will be no great D resurgence in 2018 mid-terms, especially if Obama and Medusa stick their noses back into the game. (BHO didn't do very well halting Brexit; HRC lost an election almost impossible to lose). Most likely, except in NY and CA, another cadre of R's will enter the container, further diminishing the D's counter pressure, rendering D's TOTALLY ineffective. Up to now the D's have been ineffective by choice. In 2018, D's will be ineffective, even if they wanted to be so otherwise (which they don't), because there will be obviously too few of them.
Pressure Volume relation in 2020
Regardless of whether Trump is impeached or not, the D's will not gain votes. They still have no message. They still only offer the status quo of elitism, austerity, and suppression. The kicker here is whether a third party can gain enough traction to effectively insert itself into the current two color chamber. Such an event would exert pressure on remaining D's and even R's. The D's, as we know them, are a dying party, ruled over by an ancient team of sell-outs. It is unlikely that enough establishment D's will get re-elected to maintain the current malfunction.
Okay, you say, what about the "rising stars" of the corporatist D party, such as Kamala the Camel Harris or Booker T. Booker or Kirsten Gillibrand? As of now, all 3 are so openly beholden to the Obama/Clinton establishment as to be incapable of drawing back former grassroots D's. They will lose nationally even though their home states are very blue.
So, the end of the D's is in sight. Rich donors having not reaped return on investment from Medusa and other puppets. With declining numbers of D's, they will less likely support other D's for the ROI reason. Remaining grass roots members will be, and already are, disinclined to contribute to the D's.
This part of the equation is simple: Less Money = Less D's.
Now for the consequences:
Scenario 1: A third party, most likely headed by Bernie will rise from the ashes of the D party. They will be a minority party--but so will the remaining establishment D's. Alone neither faction will be effective, leaving the R's in complete control.
Scenario 2: Regardless of a left-of center--or even center--D / Indie Party constituency, R's will have overwhelming legislative control. And here is the R's Achilles heel.
The R's Achilles heel
As the non-R counter pressure diminishes, the R's will expand. But the R's are not as monolithic as some think. They are currently fracture prone into several constituents:
1. Trumpista
2. Establishment / NeverTrump
3. Libertarian / Tea Party
With the demise of the D's the R's have quite a good chance of fracturing.
Now assume that each former pseudo-monolithic party fractures into at least two significant subcomponents each. That leaves 4 contenders in the political arena. But the coalitions will not be rigid. On points of agreement several of the factions may unite, whereas at points of disagreement, the coalition will cease. This is what I consider an almost parliamentary system. We already have a King who rules over the President. (The King is corporate giants / elites).
This whole situation is dependent upon one factor besides volume and constituents. That is Temperature. The temperature is rising. Political as well as economic discontent is rising. Not coincidentally the rising climate temperatures also worsen social temperatures. People in hot weather are more prone to violent acts than people in cooler climates.
Hypothesis
There are two possible outcomes from this current political situation:
1. Peaceful disassembly of the constituent political parties
2. Violent explosion.
We are at a point of no return--not just in a climatic sense but in a political sense. Why this is true could be a subject for another essay. But true it is.
Either the two parties divide or explosion comes.

Comments
Regarding Temperature:
What does our mediascape have lying around for this situation?
Kind of reminds me of Disaster Capitalism; how the political ideas "lying around" get put into play during a crisis.
Man, someone could really clobber a book on the corporate media cartels in the same vein as the Shock Doctrine.
“Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat.” ~ Sun Tzu
Wish I had seen this before writing the essay
From Tim Canova:
This could be the nucleus for a new political coalition. Note the conjunction of 3 anti-war persons from two different parties. Whatever disdain one may feel for Libertarians, such as unregulated markets, I for one, must admire and cooperate with them on their antiwar platform. This is hopefully a guide for the new politics.
thanks for these links
Thought is the wind, knowledge the sail, and mankind the vessel.
-- August Hare
It will never pass. We support & have supported terrorists
That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --
@enhydra lutris You forget that when
Ok Ed...
Shouldn't that first line be...'in an alligatorical way' ? (I know...you were sleeping in the sun on a bank during English class at Alligator U.)
Good piece. And, I agree that we should work with anyone we have common views on issues.
You can see the latest debate/uproar about Caitlen Johnstone's essays.
I want a Pony!
I try to keep my alligatorial biases out of the essays
While I do think the Democrats will gain seats in 2018
Because "I hate Trump" does play the roll of activation energy, just as "I hate Bush" did in 2006--perhaps the Dems will even take over the House, as they did in 2006--a return to Nancy "Impeachment is off the table" Pelosi and the politics of "Roll over and scratch my tummy" will seal the Dem party's doom, if by delaying it.
I prefer a fracturing of the container itself, by peaceful means hopefully. Blue states go one way, red states another, Alaska does whatever the hell it wants, leading to a more informal North American Union. Join Canada? Sure, if you want to. Join Mexico? Why not--provided their 19 family oligarchy ends (Viva Zapata!). But the current Corporate Fascism can not stand.
In principal I agree with fracturing the container
@Alligator Ed Besides all Bible, all
"We'll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American public believes is false." ---- William Casey, CIA Director, 1981
As you know, I am not a lawyer
@Alligator Ed Well, lots of folks
All alligator shit aside, I want to be prepared so I can get away.
I can fake pray with the best of them.
Testify!
I just don't want to be around if Texas becomes an independent country again.
"We'll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American public believes is false." ---- William Casey, CIA Director, 1981
Hallelujah, FSM be praised!
@SancheLlewellyn I think 2018 is going to
If people don't come to salvage the Dems for 2018, then that needs to be a clarion call to everyone that the party needs to die.
Ultimately, the Dems aren't the answer. What we need to figure out is what the answer should be.
The Dems aren't the answer for sure
@Alligator Ed Oh definitely I know
2016 was the clarion call
There seems to be tiny bit of movement, Chuckie "the Shoe" Schumer was on the talk shows today mentioning the words "Single Payer", "Big Al" Gore came out for single payer this week. That represents some rhetorical distance from "Her Heinous" Clinton's statement that single payer would never happen. Probably just rhetoric, though. Like "Repeal Obamacare" it's easy to say things when nothing you say matters.
It seems like a day doesn't go by that there isn't another article on AlterNet about how the horrible division in the Democratic Party is to blame, racism and misogyny is to blame, Russia is to blame, all we need to do is get to 50% + 1 and everything will be fine.
The rate of movement, if indeed there is any, is going to be far too slow to compete against even the (literally) dying Republican Party.
Two toilets, side by side, flushed at the same time, who wins the race to the gurgle?
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"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." -- Albert Bartlett
"A species that is hurtling toward extinction has no business promoting slow incremental change." -- Caitlin Johnstone
@WoodsDweller I can agree but also
The problem is though that instead of folks marching with their feet to say a 3rd party, it seems more and more folks just stay home. It's mixed for me I guess.
Good analogizing, Ed!
I hear 2018 will be a very hot year indeed.
Typo: actual number is 435, not 415.
“We may not be able to change the system, but we can make the system irrelevant in our lives and in the lives of those around us.”—John Beckett
Oops! Another lapse.
I hope there's another possibility out there somewhere.
'What we are left with is an agency mandated to ensure transparency and disclosure that is actually working to keep the public in the dark' - Ann M. Ravel, former FEC member
Hope is good.
Whatever you said,
I can only think of W.C. Fields.
People been saying this stuff for decades and the cuopoly rolls along. People always think this time is different. It ain't.
It doesn't matter anyway, the revolution has to come from outside the political system so it doesn't matter what the two oligarchy parties do.
Agreed, Big Al
@Alligator Ed Kind of feel like an