Why the Brexit result may be bad
I know many of us on the other side of the Atlantic are bewildered at how the campaign to leave the EU can be so dominated by the right.
The left, it seems, has gotten little out of the European Union. While the political cooperation aspect of it may have helped in the 1970s when social democracy was strong, the rise of neoliberalism in the 80s and 90s installed a group of oligarchs who have controlled the economic policies of European "countries" without their democratic approval. Countries with budgetary crises have gone through hell at the hands of the EU.
On the other hand, enhanced political cooperation had gone a significant way in the past to help advance some of the social goals of the left. Countries can be pressured to adhere to environmental and labour standards and human rights - and this, I believe - helped European countries at times to be held as models for progressive and open societies. Progressives would have a platform where others would feel obliged to listen, rather than choose to ignore the good things that they accomplish simply because they come from within different borders. Many left-leaning academics - and I don't mean guys who are actually centrist like Paul Krugman, like the environment of the EU despite opposing the neoliberalism it has come to be used for.
Now, let's talk specifically about Britain and the context of the EU in general. It's clear that the mainstream political parties have gotten out of touch with the voters. The center-right has gone full austere-corrupt-neoliberal, or wastes time bickering about irrelevant social issues. The center, as expected, is the progressive wing of the oligarchy, though they do everything they can to convince you that they are simply "independent" and "bipartisan". The center-left either blindly insists on the third way, which has become toxic since the recession or spends most of their time talking about feminism and gay rights to conceal the fact that they are divided. all of these guys support the EU.
Let's be clear though - not all of those mainstream forces who supported the campaign to remain is some pro-establishment oligarch or out-of-touch politician. There are many staunch center-left progressives like Jeremy Corbyn, as well as many smaller progressive political parties like the Green parties who support the EU for reasons such as open borders and political cooperation.
I have been following this somewhat and the stats and yes - the Labour vote, the young vote, and London voting heavily to remain - are correct. Unlike in Spain and Greece, where dislike of the EU is centered around views on austerity as well, in England it is viewed more in the context of openness and internationalism. I can assure you that these guys are not exactly third way centrists - they voted overwhelmingly for Corbyn last year- a self-described socialist - as their leader, even after Tony Blair came and predicted disaster should he be elected. In 2000, they successfully backed radical-left Labour party member Ken Livingstone in a three-way race after Blair blocked him from running on their ticket because he thought he was too far left. In 2004, they nominated him officially on the Labour ticket and won. Conservatives, by the way, tended to vote to leave - not to stay - indeed, the rural, older folk did not agree with Cameron.
Though it is true that immigration and the refugee crisis wasn't the only issue that determined the result, the mainstream media kept it at the top of the list, and I can guarantee you that in the current political situation, it is an issue that drives people to the polls. Though some may be happy that the strings that tied European countries to the Belgian elites may be coming loose, I struggle to see how this, at least in the short term, can be viewed as a victory for progressives and an opportunity for the left. EU-budgetary crises did help the radical left through, mostly, a weakening of the center-left, though their gains have only been particularly large in the countries that have faced these issues. Jeremy Corbyn is not popular, the UK media having succeeded in their hatchet job. His figures among young people are alright, but older Britons hate him.
Meanwhile, what has been consistent is the dramatic rise of the radical right - laser-focused on the issue of immigration - in various nations in Europe such as France, Sweden, the Netherlands, and Hungary. While some may be hoping for a broader shift to the left, and hoping for parties such as the UK Green Party, the Swedish Left Party, and the Dutch Socialist Party to soar in popularity, many in Europe, especially the ballooning older population, will resist moving heavily leftward unless they feel they have no choice. They may find what the radical right is proposing to be attractive - to achieve what neoconservativism was really promising in the 80s - lower taxes and smaller government without the cultural effects that globalization brings.
The main reason I'm not as afraid of Trump and am willing to joke about him becoming President is that I seriously don't see him being able to accomplish many of his more radical platform objectives. I doubt that most in even the Tea Party-led GOP could bring themselves to sign a Muslim ban even if they privately support it. If he tries to go after abortion rights - which I very much doubt he will considering his past record - there could be unprecedented opposition. Moreover, the idea of a U.S. President Donald Trump is, to much of the world, so ludicrous that he could easily gain a reputation as a sort of Bush on steroids. The global elites would likely try to use him as a scapegoat by repeatedly calling him a racist, but the political scrutiny that the U.S. would come under could help people unite on the left.
The radical right in Europe on the other hand, is different. They are organized in multiple different parties in various countries in Europe. They aren't simply reactionaries who came up in the refugee crisis or even after 9/11 - some of them have roots in the leftover white supremacists and paleoconservatives of the 80s and 90s, in Neo-nazism, and, in central Europe, some trace back to actual Nazis. They're not centered around a rich guy from outside politics who's had liberal views all his life; they've been towing the anti-immigrant, anti-minority, anti-Islam line for at least well over decade. They will try to implement policies such as banning mosques, ending naturalized citizenship and bringing back the death penalty. Oh yeah, and they love bombing.
Political parties in Europe tend not to be big tents - they can stack the parties with yes-men who will pass their agenda. What do we do if people we know are targeted? If the Middle-East retaliates? Can we not find, diplomatic, liberal, solutions, as the left would usually prefer?
I do not intend to fearmonger here. I am, however, very concerned about what will happen if wealthy, powerful countries opt to be governed by radical right-wingers on a large scale. Given the current political conditions, the path forward for the left is a difficult one. Of course I wanted the powerful elites to come crashing down, and soon too, but at a time where it could only benefit racists? I'm not so sure.
Comments
What happens after the Brexit Bremains to be seen.
The elite and banking class may have been defeated in this instance, but at what cost? What are the possible long-term repercussions?
All bets are off.
This changes everything - the world is in flux and has been for about four years. What will be will be. All we are, are observers. It's about to get ever more interesting.
"The “jumpers” reminded us that one day we will all face only one choice and that is how we will die, not how we will live." Chris Hedges on 9/11
Grab the popcorn.
I hope leaving the EU brings positive change for Britains.
The people of Britain have no obligation to accept a decline in sovereignty just because it makes things better for the EU and other power players amongst the red tape as a whole.
Not really.
Our single party system in the United states is dominated by a far right party (Republicans) and a center right party (Democrats). So domination by the right isn't bewildering at all.
Just look at America. Perhaps these other countries are taking leadership cues from the United States Political and Business classes. We had Bush/Cheney 2001 to 2009, and then we had a pretend-to be-on-the-left person in Obama.
Going back further, we had Reagan, and then a right leaning Clinton assisted in setting up the financial collapse in 2007/2008 with repeal of Glass-Steagall. So technically, we've been under right wing (far right and center right) rule since 1981 in the United States.
And now, we are about to elect either a Right wing Republican Hack, or Donald Trump. The prospects are not good for the average American citizen.
Maybe (some of) the world is just following in the footsteps of the U.S. given the wonderful leadership example provided by the fumbling and crumbling and declining American superpower.
I think you misunderstand me.
??? What I mean is, why are so few people in Labour campaigned to leave the EU due to neoliberalism?
I'm thinking more along the line of half of Europe being governed by social-conservative reactionaries like George Wallace rather than neoliberal conservatives like Ronald Reagan. Both are terrible but one has human rights/foreign policy consequences that can aggravate both the center-right elites and the entire left. The other is, of course, slower and more painful but I was talking more about short to medium-term consequences here.
Neoliberal seems to have a different
definition depending on which side of the pond you reside. Since I detest labels, it is another of those words that belong in the dust bin of academia and political pundits. just my opinion
Look up at the stars and not down at your feet. Try to make sense of what you see, and wonder about what makes the universe exist. Be curious. Stephen Hawking
Perhaps now we could export Trump to England.
Sounds like he'd fit right in, and it would help our balance of trade. Win-win. Any takers?
We don't want him
Banning the Orange One was the subject of the largest initiative to Parliament in history.
We can’t save the world by playing by the rules, because the rules have to be changed.
- Greta Thunberg
This is indeed a real blow against liberal governance
Cameron was very much a conservative domestically but the European ideal was the epitome of real liberalism. Its antithesis is the nationalist nativist far-right ideology. This is where left-wing populism becomes problematic because it can easily end up in alliance with the worst far-right elements. There's a comment above in favor of sovereignty. That's the stuff that worries me. It's tribalism. Greater nationalist sovereignty isn't inherently a good thing. Look at how it works here, where "states' rights" just enables reactionaries. The internationalist project has foundered because of the failings of the neoliberalism that came to drive it, but that's an indictment of neoliberalism, not internationalism -- or, at least, it should be. The proper response should have been to reform neolliberal policies. Instead, we're going to see growing power for nationalist far-right ideology. It's the 1930s all over again.
Real liberals need to stand against that -- not cheer it because it's a comeuppance for the elites.
Representing the 99% at the Dem Nat'l Convention in Philly.
European Unity was always fragile
It takes centuries to undo that sort of conflict (look at slavery and the US Civil War). Many WWII survivors (like my mother) are still alive. I don't think this bodes well.
We can’t save the world by playing by the rules, because the rules have to be changed.
- Greta Thunberg
Great essay!
Well done.
"Polls don't tell us how well a candidate is doing; Polls tell us how well the media is doing." ~ Me
Thousands of years of war in Europe
With what must have been one of the longest periods of peace after World War II. I'm sure the EU has had a lot to do with that. This will be interesting.
Beware the bullshit factories.
The EU project has never done
The EU project has never done anything but feed the far right. All it did was reify New World Order fantasies of "One World Dictatorship," because it had a Parliament that couldn't enact laws, and and un-reformable Constitution, and it did demonstrably monstrous things to its members.. It also empowered the right by neutering elected leftists to govern as leftists. So Syriza ended up becoming an enforcer of Austerity and the EU bankers. That was when far right Golden Dawn became popular among Greeks.
They will get a temporary bump, but it will fall apart because they can't govern really. Iceland had a sharp but brief recession but ultimately bounced back with in the year, when they ditched the banks. If the investors retaliate against the UK, it will harm Johnson's Tory government.
Here is a more sensible take on the issue.
http://wallstreetonparade.com/2016/06/brexit-vote-a-pie-in-the-face-to-t...
This site has excellent financial & political reporting.
chuck utzman
TULSI 2020
Some interesting articles at that link
And the authors appear to be supporters of Bernie Sanders' presidential campaign.
Story here concerning HRC mega-donors mixed up in the Panama Papers.
"All Life is Problem Solving" - Karl Popper
The discussion ...
wasn't "dominated by the right" -- the discussion was dominated by the banksters' flatly obvious and clearly-expressed intentions of continuing to hoover the money up to the 0.01 percent, via "free trade" agreements, "open borders" (to allow low-wage immigrants and/or nations abroad) to compete economically against enfranchised citizens, and currency manipulation (via Brussels' and Berlin's control of the Euro).
The outcome - based on a correct reading of middle- and working-class sentiments (generally outraged by Cameron "austerity") - was entirely obvious; and was predicted by several NOT-centrist writers in these and other pages.
Good riddance to Cameron, and the EU, sez I --
When Cicero had finished speaking, the people said “How well he spoke”.
When Demosthenes had finished speaking, the people said “Let us march”.
wasn't "dominated by the
I was talking about the arguments to leave the EU as opposed to the arguments to stay. the radical right overwhelmed the radical left in the push to leave, at least in the push to leave. The anti-Cameron forces voted mostly, though not entirely, to stay in the EU for diplomatic reasons while still opposing the banker class.
So what if, let's say, the UK becomes a two-party system under first-past-the-post with the Conservatives and UKIP, Scotland and NI leave, and Labour, Green and the rest of the left parties get wiped off the map. That could be even worse than the situation in the USA because at least the Democrats pretend to progressive and let them run. You would have a bunch of neolibs and neocons on one side, and a bunch of racists who maybe agree with the left on one or two things but hate them and are fundamentally opposed to their values.