The Only Question worth Asking: whose False Flag was the Ukrainian Airline Crash?

**Update** The Iranian foreign office apparently just admitted it was their missile that shot down the plane unintentionally. While we have to accept this admission as fact for now, there are still many facts that don't add up, including that it took them this long to 'fess up, that after their top spokesperson yesterday claimed it was impossible that a missile would shoot the plane down. There are also many implications not all of which are favorable to Iran. For now, all I can do however is to keep my reservations in check. At least until such time that "the fog" clears.
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This is a day later edited version of my speculative collection of thoughts regarding the plane crash, which appeared on WoTB, garnering but scant attention next to all those polls. Thought people here might be interested.

So the ever vigilant Moon of Alabama has put up the first take https://www.moonofalabama.org/2020/01/pentagon-accuses-iran-of-shooting-down-a-ukrainian-plane-but-its-evidence-is-flimsy.html#more">, followed by a second (https://www.moonofalabama.org/2020/01/update-on-the-ukrainian-plane-incident-near-tehran.html#more just today, in what will no doubt be a series. The first piece cast much deserved doubts on those pictures of missile parts that seem to have emerged out of nowhere. Doubts that he is right to raise and then some. Then there were these all too convenient video images of the instant the fire broke out taken by someone having a camera just at the right place. Followed by just the usual "information" massage presented courtesy of the ever-ready Bellingcat.

Now where have we seen this before? oh yes, that MH17, which was just what "they" needed to get Europe on board with some sanctions. It's like the same playbook, or very similar, which should give us all a pause.

We already know that making sense is not part of the false Flag narrative. Wasn't with the Chemical weapons in Douma, wasn't with the Skirpals, and wasn't with the MH17. They don't worry about "sense" or 'sensibility" because they know they got the media megaphone which can silence all authentic sensory inputs. Burying them in noise, so to speak.

So forget all that. What we are seeing right now is the "Build up narrative consensus" phase. The ever execrable Bellingcat is already on it (which should be your clue that we are talking false flag here. The sound of those blades fanning!). "They" are trying to figure out who is on board with what. OK, got Trudeau (can always be counted on, being a fine poodle). MI6 (must be, if Eliott Higgins is already up and about). The CIA? not sure yet. The Pentagon? nope - they came out with that "unintentional" stuff (meaning not daring to come out against the actual scenario of "Iranian missile" and giving Iran "a way out"). The Trump administration? not clear - there's a lot of waffle and shuffle today.

So, what happened, you ask? Moon of Alabama is leaning towards engine failure (which is definitely plausible - I give it a 25% probability, given it was a Ukrainian Airline with Kolomoiskii on the board. Can never exclude incompetence and corruption when it comes to the ukraine). Then again he was leaning towards food poisoning in the Skirpals case (which was also plausible, though he ended up retracting that one as the less likely of other options when a few more odds and ends from OPCW came to light). I predict he will change his mind on this case as well, soon enough.

So what happened? simple - it WAS most likely a false flag - perpetrated by one of several sleeper cells in place in Iran. The order must have come not long after the initial assessment of damage due to the missile barrage on the American bases. An assessment that found the damage to be "small" and "insufficient to get the outrage fans blowing". So the order went out to activate the cell, which was already in position to place just enough of an engine killing "fluke" (it can be something but can also be absence of something. The engineers know what they know - ask them - I did). Or it can be an actual heat seeking missile shot at an ascending aircraft still at low altitude (they say 5000 feet though I have also seen 8000 feet at the time of impact). The cell then scatters a few well placed "missile parts" prepared ahead of time at selected locations - just as those images showed. Note the "Russian made" that was inserted in accounts as if to drive the point home (oh, it's just those Russians again! or may be they were too lazy to tinker too much with the MH17 narrative (must never discount laziness!). Cameras take photos, ready to distribute. A day later mysteriously acquired images start making the round. In America, the poor rubes will not ask too many questions - way too medicated and/or snowflaky for that.

The particular plane, flight must have been chosen from among a list of possible best targets (both in terms of access and airline). One would assume there are several on the target list at any given time. One must also assume there is more than one such cell in position at any given time.

Then came the aftermath and it looked like there are forces trying to play it down - cf. the technical difficulty comment posted on Ukie web site (before that claim was suddenly removed). The Pentagon failing to line up behind the "shot down by offensive missile" theory, instead leaning towards "unintentional anti-aircraft fire" (again, the rubes out there will never dig into what's what, will they? did they dig into "Novichok" much? so who's to look too deep into what that anti-aircraft fire was? or the fact that it was directed at an aircraft that was flying AWAY not TOWARDS the airport. Just assume those same Iranians that could guide their missiles so precisely a targets 800 km away are basically too incompetent to tell the difference between "to" and "from". Just some random Iranian dude panicking and hitting the red button. I mean it's what we'd do, right?). Trump trying to quiet things - (de-escalation scenario in progress). The MSM not jumping up and down yet with any vigor (may be they did not receive full marching orders?). So it's time for the next phase - which is to play up the "Iranian missile" angle wherever possible. Make for angry Canadians and Ukrainians. The Canadian poodle bites. The Ukrainians - so far at least - take a back seat (after all they may not know who/what was behind it all. Best to play it safe).

So the pattern is clear - there was a play in place designed to escalate. It did not come from the US (likely not even the CIA). So it came from elsewhere. It came from a place that has the means, the motivation and is set to take advantage of "opportunities". It is also a place where conscience is not something to take into account. Yes, I believe that latter one excludes America (most likely, even the worst of the worst will hesitate before bringing down an airline full of likely innocent travelers going about their business, especially when they are not sure the top brass will be on board. Just playing likelihoods here - it is of course not impossible to have psychopaths anywhere, but it takes a special kind of psycho to do certain things). I also believe US entities, even specially nefarious ones, seeing the desire to de-escalate from the political direction, may be short on the "motivation" part. I also happen to believe that the US "entities" do not have enough of those cells to be willing to burn one, just on an outside chance they may get their wished-for escalation.

Sorry but you only get one guess as to who was the likely culprit.

And if you guess correctly then we can all move to the next phase, which is figuring out "what next". Since I have taken it upon myself to look under all nooks and cranies I may be able to discern a "hint" of which way the winds will blow. Both on this side and the other side of the "pond".

Disclaimer: all this being said, a technical failure of catastrophic nature cannot be excluded. OTOH, this makes Boeing look bad, as well as Ukraine for poor maintenance. So - a problem settling on this as the cause. I wonder what it may cost the US to prevail upon Iran to go along with a one-off sabotage story (since no way would they agree to the "unintentional anti-aircraft missile" gambit).

Enjoy!

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is not my forte. Anyone can tell me how I erred and what to do better? I stand ready to be edified....

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thanatokephaloides's picture

@Sandernista2

Formatting links is not my forte. Anyone can tell me how I erred and what to do better? I stand ready to be edified....

Top row above the text-input box, third button in from the left. Or Shift-Alt-L. Brings up a lovely little window where you can paste your intended URL and a nice little link text. Click OK and you're off to the races!

Biggrin

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CB's picture

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that the IFF designator(which determines which aircraft in the area are friendly/hostile) was futzed with in some way. No idea how true that is. Could be bullshit, but it's out there.

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They say that there's a broken light for every heart on Broadway
They say that life's a game and then they take the board away
They give you masks and costumes and an outline of the story
And leave you all to improvise their vicious cabaret-- A. Moore

CB's picture

Iran admits shooting down Ukrainian flight over Tehran in ‘unintentional’ missile launch

The Ukrainian passenger aircraft that recently crashed in Iran’s capital was brought down due to “human error” after flying too close to defense installations, triggering an accidental missile launch.

A military statement read on state media channels came as the first confirmation from Iranian officials that a missile, and not an engine fire, caused the crash last Wednesday. The statement noted that the shootdown was “unintentional” and maintained that those responsible would face consequences.
...

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@CB yes, I just saw that - put an update at the top of my post.

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@Sandernista2 And the first missile strike with explosion, fireball and sound, is what caused the camera operator to be videoing the second missile hitting.

And as for the missile parts everywhere, especially the head of the missile (the seeking part of it) that was found, pretty much intact -- apparently that is common as well. There are photos of similar missile heads intact found in Syria.

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Bisbonian's picture

@CB , or Standard Instrument Departure, which, just like it sounds, its the standard way to depart a particular airport. In this case, the PAROT 3 (they always have a five letter identifier, and a number.) Here is a link to what the chart looks like: https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/771x1305/d649d2f9_8768...

And here is the track of the Ukrainian flight (in Blue), and several other flights that morning. https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/2000x1130/ika_dep_up_t...

The missile site is very near the top left corner of that image. The departure DOES go right over it, which is certainly odd...but then most Southwest Asian airports I have flown into have anti-aircraft missiles right on the field, and often I have watched the missiles turn and track me as I taxied by. It's not North America.

The Ukrainian pilots flew exactly where they were supposed to.

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"I’m a human being, first and foremost, and as such I’m for whoever and whatever benefits humanity as a whole.” —Malcolm X

wendy davis's picture

at their words and their honest admission:

quite unlike any nations that have shot down their airliners in the past.

added on edit, from elijah magnier:

@ejmalrai 15h15 hours ago

It was Sayyed Ali Khamenei who ordered the immediate release of the results once confirmed, suggesting "it is an Islamic duty to confirm the self-responsibility of #Iran in this incident".

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@wendy davis @wendy davis @wendy davis @wendy davis I do take them at their word, as my update indicates.

It's just that I thik there is a finite probability we don't know the whole story. In particular, there are a few nagging questions, such as:

  1. why was there a communication loss with both aircraft and the higher command for those crucial 20-30 secs? is there a possibility that some communication jamming was involved?

    2. Why did the iranians originally rush to declare there were technical difficulties? I find it hard to believe they'd say that so quickly unless there was reason to believe there was some issue involved

    3. There must have been some other reason for concern that caused the AC unit to make the judgement call to fire the missiles. There were apparently some indications the aircraft was starting to turn around. One possibility I saw suggested is that there was some communication beforehand from the aircraft indicating trouble of some sort - that to the control tower - followed by a turn, which is what might have led the AC crew to mistake the craft for an incoming cruise missile.

    4. Trump tweet "all is well" continues to raise eye brows.

Then again, I admit to being conspiracy minded - meaning I suspect everything we are told officially by anyone. My reality has no embedded certainties.

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wendy davis's picture

@Sandernista2

seemed to have been a food-fight at MoA (386 comments or so?), and given that juliania was on it, i'd asked her at the café if it were related to bit of this i'd posted: ‘I wish I was dead’: Senior IRGC commander accepts responsibility for downing Ukrainian jet, says it was mistaken for missile
11 Jan, 2020

"According to an early assessment, the Ukrainian plane was erroneously identified as an incoming cruise missile, which resulted in the tragedy. Air-defense units received a warning that cruise missiles had been fired at the country and stayed on high alert at the time of the incident, Hajizadeh stated.

The commander of the anti-aircraft unit had sought confirmation for the launch from his superiors, but experienced communication problems and had to make the decision –which turned out to be wrong– on his own. The officer only had 10 seconds to make the decision, Hajizadeh added."

so i'd wondered if the thinking might be 'Israel' had flummoxed the communications, but as Tehran knows exactly which nations are their enemies, they wouldn't be shy about naming the cause, imo.

oh, and a hint: each time you edit a comment, it adds another @screen name, so you can delete all but the initial one and not bugger up to whom you're replying. now i haven't been to any of the iranian news sites recently, nor on zarif's or rouhani's twitter accounts, so it's possible there's news. i can check once i've got some time.

i do hope we know the truth one day, athough we never did on the iranian airliners shot down by the US. also, finnian cunningham noted that it was pretty careless to have commercial planes using that airport during those days. i agree.

i went back to chek, there were 580 comments but bernhard's now up with 'Was The Shootdown Of The Ukrainian Airplane Near Tehran Really A 'Mistake'?

the opening paragraphs look intriguing...

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@wendy davis by Brian (forget the number now). He brings in a long FB entry by Pepe escobar which suggests that a cyber attack cannot be ruled out. The capability does exist to change radar signatures and/or to turn off a transponder.

Looks plausible to me. I just can't get over that "All is well" tweet by Trump and its timing. neither can I ignore how quick the US was to point at a missile strike at the plane. Within less than an hour after it crashed. How could it possibly be so sure so fast unless it had certain knowledge.

Would Iran admit a successful cyber attack even if it had proof? I doubt it. That's like admitting weakness. They never admitted the Stuxnet attack on the centrifuges.

So, I think a certain waiting period is called for before drawing conclusions. And I am one who agrees with MoA like 95% of the time. But there is that 5%, yes? I can't blame him though for drawing the conclusions he did in today's post. At this stage all we can do is accept Iran's account.

Of course there was that curious reference to "abnormal conditions">....

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