**Update** The Iranian foreign office apparently just admitted it was their missile that shot down the plane unintentionally. While we have to accept this admission as fact for now, there are still many facts that don't add up, including that it took them this long to 'fess up, that after their top spokesperson yesterday claimed it was impossible that a missile would shoot the plane down. There are also many implications not all of which are favorable to Iran. For now, all I can do however is to keep my reservations in check. At least until such time that "the fog" clears.
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This is a day later edited version of my speculative collection of thoughts regarding the plane crash, which appeared on WoTB, garnering but scant attention next to all those polls. Thought people here might be interested.

So the ever vigilant Moon of Alabama has put up the first take https://www.moonofalabama.org/2020/01/pentagon-accuses-iran-of-shooting-down-a-ukrainian-plane-but-its-evidence-is-flimsy.html#more">, followed by a second (https://www.moonofalabama.org/2020/01/update-on-the-ukrainian-plane-incident-near-tehran.html#more just today, in what will no doubt be a series. The first piece cast much deserved doubts on those pictures of missile parts that seem to have emerged out of nowhere. Doubts that he is right to raise and then some. Then there were these all too convenient video images of the instant the fire broke out taken by someone having a camera just at the right place. Followed by just the usual "information" massage presented courtesy of the ever-ready Bellingcat.

Now where have we seen this before? oh yes, that MH17, which was just what "they" needed to get Europe on board with some sanctions. It's like the same playbook, or very similar, which should give us all a pause.

We already know that making sense is not part of the false Flag narrative. Wasn't with the Chemical weapons in Douma, wasn't with the Skirpals, and wasn't with the MH17. They don't worry about "sense" or 'sensibility" because they know they got the media megaphone which can silence all authentic sensory inputs. Burying them in noise, so to speak.

So forget all that. What we are seeing right now is the "Build up narrative consensus" phase. The ever execrable Bellingcat is already on it (which should be your clue that we are talking false flag here. The sound of those blades fanning!). "They" are trying to figure out who is on board with what. OK, got Trudeau (can always be counted on, being a fine poodle). MI6 (must be, if Eliott Higgins is already up and about). The CIA? not sure yet. The Pentagon? nope - they came out with that "unintentional" stuff (meaning not daring to come out against the actual scenario of "Iranian missile" and giving Iran "a way out"). The Trump administration? not clear - there's a lot of waffle and shuffle today.

So, what happened, you ask? Moon of Alabama is leaning towards engine failure (which is definitely plausible - I give it a 25% probability, given it was a Ukrainian Airline with Kolomoiskii on the board. Can never exclude incompetence and corruption when it comes to the ukraine). Then again he was leaning towards food poisoning in the Skirpals case (which was also plausible, though he ended up retracting that one as the less likely of other options when a few more odds and ends from OPCW came to light). I predict he will change his mind on this case as well, soon enough.

So what happened? simple - it WAS most likely a false flag - perpetrated by one of several sleeper cells in place in Iran. The order must have come not long after the initial assessment of damage due to the missile barrage on the American bases. An assessment that found the damage to be "small" and "insufficient to get the outrage fans blowing". So the order went out to activate the cell, which was already in position to place just enough of an engine killing "fluke" (it can be something but can also be absence of something. The engineers know what they know - ask them - I did). Or it can be an actual heat seeking missile shot at an ascending aircraft still at low altitude (they say 5000 feet though I have also seen 8000 feet at the time of impact). The cell then scatters a few well placed "missile parts" prepared ahead of time at selected locations - just as those images showed. Note the "Russian made" that was inserted in accounts as if to drive the point home (oh, it's just those Russians again! or may be they were too lazy to tinker too much with the MH17 narrative (must never discount laziness!). Cameras take photos, ready to distribute. A day later mysteriously acquired images start making the round. In America, the poor rubes will not ask too many questions - way too medicated and/or snowflaky for that.

The particular plane, flight must have been chosen from among a list of possible best targets (both in terms of access and airline). One would assume there are several on the target list at any given time. One must also assume there is more than one such cell in position at any given time.

Then came the aftermath and it looked like there are forces trying to play it down - cf. the technical difficulty comment posted on Ukie web site (before that claim was suddenly removed). The Pentagon failing to line up behind the "shot down by offensive missile" theory, instead leaning towards "unintentional anti-aircraft fire" (again, the rubes out there will never dig into what's what, will they? did they dig into "Novichok" much? so who's to look too deep into what that anti-aircraft fire was? or the fact that it was directed at an aircraft that was flying AWAY not TOWARDS the airport. Just assume those same Iranians that could guide their missiles so precisely a targets 800 km away are basically too incompetent to tell the difference between "to" and "from". Just some random Iranian dude panicking and hitting the red button. I mean it's what we'd do, right?). Trump trying to quiet things - (de-escalation scenario in progress). The MSM not jumping up and down yet with any vigor (may be they did not receive full marching orders?). So it's time for the next phase - which is to play up the "Iranian missile" angle wherever possible. Make for angry Canadians and Ukrainians. The Canadian poodle bites. The Ukrainians - so far at least - take a back seat (after all they may not know who/what was behind it all. Best to play it safe).

So the pattern is clear - there was a play in place designed to escalate. It did not come from the US (likely not even the CIA). So it came from elsewhere. It came from a place that has the means, the motivation and is set to take advantage of "opportunities". It is also a place where conscience is not something to take into account. Yes, I believe that latter one excludes America (most likely, even the worst of the worst will hesitate before bringing down an airline full of likely innocent travelers going about their business, especially when they are not sure the top brass will be on board. Just playing likelihoods here - it is of course not impossible to have psychopaths anywhere, but it takes a special kind of psycho to do certain things). I also believe US entities, even specially nefarious ones, seeing the desire to de-escalate from the political direction, may be short on the "motivation" part. I also happen to believe that the US "entities" do not have enough of those cells to be willing to burn one, just on an outside chance they may get their wished-for escalation.

Sorry but you only get one guess as to who was the likely culprit.

And if you guess correctly then we can all move to the next phase, which is figuring out "what next". Since I have taken it upon myself to look under all nooks and cranies I may be able to discern a "hint" of which way the winds will blow. Both on this side and the other side of the "pond".

Disclaimer: all this being said, a technical failure of catastrophic nature cannot be excluded. OTOH, this makes Boeing look bad, as well as Ukraine for poor maintenance. So - a problem settling on this as the cause. I wonder what it may cost the US to prevail upon Iran to go along with a one-off sabotage story (since no way would they agree to the "unintentional anti-aircraft missile" gambit).

Enjoy!