Clinton LOSING IN NY STATE. WTF?
One always needs to consider the source, of course, of course, but still, from Rasmussen poll 7/2 which leans right,
"Rasmussen claims that the controversial New York real estate mogul and first-time candidate clocks in with 42 percent versus Clinton’s 40 percent based on a survey of 1,000 likely voters this week. Last week, Trump had a four-point lead according to the Rasmussen organization, the most favorable outcome for the presumptive GOP presidential nominee since October".
Let that sink in for a minute. Clinton is losing in deep blue NY State. Now it also says in the article that "All of these polls have a so-called margin of error of about three to four percent", but even if you take that into account, that would give Clinton a mere +2 edge at best. Either way, it's a toss up.
Yet all we hear from the MSM is "She has to be the nominee. SHE'S WINNING!!!" Really? She could lose in her "home state"? That's the best you can do?
Remember, we weren't the Chicken Littles. We were Cassandra. We tried to warn everyone that the best candidate against Trump was Sanders. So they reinforced the gates before the process had even begun. The MSM touting she had over 400 super delegates in her pocket before the first votes were cast. They planned the illegal electioneering in Massachusetts, the purge of hundred of thousands of voters in New York, the white out votes and working concert with the Secretary Of State in California, the long lines in Arizona, the misinformation and pay-ops in Nevada. And despite all that, Bernie still beats Trump handily in head to head better than Clinton. To quote John Belushi, "But NOOOOOO!". We can't have a revolution, that's un-American! (Um, 1775... anyone?) Bernie supporters are sore losers, we're told. Then how come Clinton can't polish the floor with Trump in her own damn state? And they call us losers?
If she blows this election, they - the HRC-bots, the DNC, the media, and all the other naysayers better not come crying to us. I won't take their crap for a minute.
Comments
That's that 20%
We keep seeing for other/none of the above.
But surely democrats exceed republicans in ny by more than that. When was the last time it went republican?
Reagan---1980 and 1984
NY's liberalism is exaggerated.
remember Nelson Rockefeller, Hugh Carey, Bill Hanley, and BTW Andrew Cuomo. Like we saw in Ohio racism trumps, even where you don't expect it to.
On to Biden since 1973
Don't forget all the closed polling locations in AZ and PR
They only had about 60% of the usual spots open this year...
And I'm still concerned about the shredding company at the voter registration office in San Diego just after the election taking out boxes of provisional ballots some said...
'What we are left with is an agency mandated to ensure transparency and disclosure that is actually working to keep the public in the dark' - Ann M. Ravel, former FEC member
Hey, don't worry...
Clinton has lots of home states. She can't lose all of them ... right?
"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." -- Albert Bartlett
"A species that is hurtling toward extinction has no business promoting slow incremental change." -- Caitlin Johnstone
Well,
She barely beat Bernie in Illinois, and I'm sure that was with infamous Chicago shenanigans.
And Arkansas hasn't gone blue since 96. In fact, it's increasingly red; Romney won 60% of the vote in 2012.
Bill only got 54% of the vote in 96; not terribly impressive for a favorite son.
Hillary ran 5 points behind Al Gore in 2000
in the state of NY, against a little known stand in for Rudy Giuliani, who quit mid race due to a messy divorce. She got 55% of the vote. She did better in 2006 as an incumbent with only token opposition.
I was thinking
it's Trump's home state, too. And how many 'home states' does Clinton have?
There is no such thing as TMI. It can always be held in reserve for extortion.
four
Arkansas, Illinois, New York, and Mordor.
People who have followed Rasmussen over a number of election cycles understand that it is not a legitimate polling organization. It is an arm of the Republican Party. Its polls routinely, sometimes even comically, inflate Republican numbers. Then, shortly before an actual election, it readjusts its numbers, so that they more conform with Reality. It can then cite those final numbers to make the case that it is an actual and Real polling firm.
LOL
Does that make Bill, Saruman?
The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?
Naaa Saruman was more likable. ;)
At least he could do cool magic.
Only magic the Clinton's have ever done is make jobs disappear...
"I used to vote Republican & Democrat, I also used to shit my pants. Eventually I got smart enough to stop doing both things." -Me
I'm thinking Shagrat
Sounds like a Clinton move: Kill an ally, his followers and your own over a valuable object.
We can’t save the world by playing by the rules, because the rules have to be changed.
- Greta Thunberg
*snort*
I thought Massachusetts fit in there somewhere, but Mordor is more believable.
There is no such thing as TMI. It can always be held in reserve for extortion.
I don't see her losing the Mordor Vote
Orcs are pretty reliable voters for the greater evil.
"You can't just leave those who created the problem in charge of the solution."---Tyree Scott
You owe me a new monitor for that first sentence. /eom
"When we remember we are all mad, the mysteries disappear and life stands explained." - Mark Twain
No shit
The impeachment and hearings that will start asap are what we can expect from here on out. Fucking bullshit.
Look on the bright side
It might keep the Republicans too occupied to do some of the screwing over they might otherwise accomplish.
"I’m a human being, first and foremost, and as such I’m for whoever and whatever benefits humanity as a whole.” —Malcolm X
On the plus side, there are
On the plus side, there are so many things that she ought to be charged with and needs to be kept out of office in the first place... but of course, same deal with the equally corporate-run Republicans.
Vote Green - let Jill roll over Hill en route to democracy!
Psychopathy is not a political position, whether labeled 'conservatism', 'centrism' or 'left'.
A tin labeled 'coffee' may be a can of worms or pathology identified by a lack of empathy/willingness to harm others to achieve personal desires.
if/when she loses they'll blame us and Bernie, too
they'll say Bernie would have been subjected to right wing blah blah blah and would have lost too...probably worse! And if Bernie had endorsed Hillary quicker she'd have won! And you purists blah blah blah!
But then, I don't pay much attention to what the Repubs say so why would I worry about what the Dems say?
Sometimes it's hard to remember I'm an ex-Democrat. I have some wish to see the partisans admit they're wrong, which they'll never do. But really, that's only another group of which I'm not a member.
And I will laugh when they do, because they will be full of crap
I truly don't care who they try and blame. I didn't build that shit and neither did you. They did. They own it. They will always own it.
I think your crystal ball is so spot on I am gonna let you
pick the numbers for my megamillions ticket.
"I used to vote Republican & Democrat, I also used to shit my pants. Eventually I got smart enough to stop doing both things." -Me
If Hillary is going down to defeat
…let's get ahead of it and MAKE SURE they know that we plan to do it.
____________________
The political system is what it is because the People are who they are. — Plato
WE should proudly claim credit for any defeat she experiences.
Until we can hurt them, we don't exist.
"Religion is what keeps the poor from murdering the rich."--Napoleon
They're already cheating -
They're already cheating - prevent that, vote Green and there you go.
Psychopathy is not a political position, whether labeled 'conservatism', 'centrism' or 'left'.
A tin labeled 'coffee' may be a can of worms or pathology identified by a lack of empathy/willingness to harm others to achieve personal desires.
I think she's vulnerable in MI too.
Trump did well in the same counties Bernie won.
a pink NY and MI changes the electoral map completely.
The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?
Trump will do well
In the western Michigan counties that Cruz won. That's ford's & Peter Hoekstra's old district,Mand no way will those Dutch vote for her.
No, the democratic strongholds are the African American populations in southeast Michigan and the college towns.
GOP had 200,000 more MI primary voters than the Dems.
and more than half the Dem votes were for Bernie, which are not guaranteed to Hillary in the general by any stretch.
College kids won't vote for her.
Indies won't vote for her.
I think she's in real trouble.
The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?
It's OK - massive cheating
It's OK - massive cheating will fix everything for Hillary in the General just as it did in the primary. That's why they kept insisting that only long-term, loyal Dem votes mattered, and that Indies and others weren't welcome or needed even though forming the largest group - who needs voters when you can manufacture as many votes as you might need?
Edited to remove an extra 'you' ironically prefacing the bit about manufacturing votes...
Psychopathy is not a political position, whether labeled 'conservatism', 'centrism' or 'left'.
A tin labeled 'coffee' may be a can of worms or pathology identified by a lack of empathy/willingness to harm others to achieve personal desires.
The only reason she was able to cheat successfully
in the primaries, IMO, is because the machine Dems wanted her. The machine Dems are not going to run the GE, though.
The GOP is salivating for a trifecta of majority rule, and they'll get it. The good news is that the House and the Senate won't get everything they want from a President Trump.
But even some Republican
But even some Republican billionaires and corporate interests wanted Hillary over much of the Republican field - and certainly over Trump.
Trump, after all, is in it directly for his own enrichment, not theirs, while Hillary will take power to act for them and take rewards from them, as an employee.
Psychopathy is not a political position, whether labeled 'conservatism', 'centrism' or 'left'.
A tin labeled 'coffee' may be a can of worms or pathology identified by a lack of empathy/willingness to harm others to achieve personal desires.
Bet Hillary's now wishing...
she hadn't kicked all those registered Democrats off the rolls in NYC during the primary.
Because she's gonna need every one of them to beat Trump in NY come the general.
The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?
Don't be too surprised
If the Democratic vote count in the general matches the pre-primary numbers.
Just saying.
Now interviewing signature candidates. Apply within.
I won't be.
But it will still be a lot harder to pull the same type of shenanigans in the open general than in the closed primary.
Especially now that two of the top NYC election
fixersofficials have been booted.Besides, they still need Dem turnout to make it close enough to steal, and even if they reregister all those folks, you think they'll really come out for Hillary after what she did to them in the primary?
The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?
I didn't know the officials were removed
And I agree that the general is harder to fix. Even so, I wasn't assuming that the booted voters would be re-registered, or that if they were, they would vote for her. I was just talking final numbers. Voting machines and counting protocols being what they are, one never knows how things are gonna turn out. Unless one does.
Now interviewing signature candidates. Apply within.
Sorry, but
if there's one thing that this primary is proving it's that it doesn't have to be close to vote flip.
On to Biden since 1973
Damn you, Henry, for
pissing on her parade.
the little things you can do are more valuable than the giant things you can't! - @thanatokephaloides. On Twitter @wink1radio. (-2.1) All about building progressive media.
Democrats should be very worried about battleground states.
If she loses NY, it'll be on top of losing everywhere else. It would likely signal a red wave. Right now, the margins in almost every swing state are razor thin, and unlike the Rasmussen numbers, the results are from reputable pollsters. In Florida, her margin is three points. Gravis had them tied on 7/2. In Pennsylvania, it's two points. In Ohio it's two points. In New Hampshire, it's two points. In Colorado, it looks to be a single point. In Virginia it's three points. If you factor in the margin of error, they're basically tied in every state that elects presidents. Her only "safe" state right now is Wisconsin, which hasn't voted Republican since Reagan. Also, North Carolina is surprisingly tied.
This is against a guy that has a -33 favorability rating in some polls. I don't know how anyone can feel any confidence with these numbers, especially since Trump could easily be denied the nomination or something could happen that causes a shift in the polls that could swing the election one way or another.
Remember what Lawrence O'Donnell said:
Her numbers never go up.
The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?
unless you're comparing exit poll to final count
/snark, sorry.
Now interviewing signature candidates. Apply within.
Is it really snark though if it is true?
I don't think you need the snark indicator there at all.
"I used to vote Republican & Democrat, I also used to shit my pants. Eventually I got smart enough to stop doing both things." -Me
From the looks of things, no way does she take Florida
I have lost count of the Trump signage down here. I have not seen so much GE signage this early on for one candidate, in all the years I've lived here (I got here in the early 90s). One can only assume the Dems are either laying low or they're non-existent for Clinton.
Wisconsin?
Scott Walker will take care of that!
On to Biden since 1973
NY ain't all that
deep a blue. Take away Brooklyn and Buffalo and the state becomes a pale pink. Like a lot of "upstate" districts mine is a pale pink. But, yeah, I would love to see her butt punkd by The Donald here. "Hold the phone, they're not done counting in Utica... " LoL They're done, your highness. And so are you.
the little things you can do are more valuable than the giant things you can't! - @thanatokephaloides. On Twitter @wink1radio. (-2.1) All about building progressive media.
In the NY primary . . .
All of the GOP votes in the presidential primary contest combined equaled 868,000. Trump's share was just over 500,000. Clinton had over 1 million and Sanders totaled almost 800,000 by himself in a closed primary.
Rasmussen is a joke of a pollster. They're the ones who had the infamous 120 percent tally for views on global warming a few years back.
Clinton could be vulnerable in PA and Ohio, but I would definitely take the Rasmussen results with a huge grain of salt.
Trump is also running a joke of a campaign. Little staff, barely any money. This whole exercise for him is about branding. At times it seems like he decided to run based on either a dare or a wager with Bill Clinton.
Trump could still win, but it isn't because he is making a serious effort to do so. And if he's winning New York, it will mean he's winning in a landslide nationally, because it's hard to see him winning New York and losing Connecticut, Ohio, PA, New Hampshire, Rhode Island and Maine. I don't see that happening.
The point may not be
Whether Rasmussen is a decent pollster, nor that she won't win in NY. It's that despite all of Drumpfs missteps and lack of a campaign organization, she is not pulling away in any polls. He doesn't have to do much to right the ship. She is a terrible candidate, despite all her obvious advantages among the elites.
I'd rather learn from one bird how to sing than teach ten thousand stars how not to dance. - e.e.cummings
After this week, polling #s may change
if people have heard anything beyond the spin that the mean vindictive Repubs are the RW conspiracy, now on TV!
Wake up people (not us, we're there), she lied to protect her ass and assets.
Hey! my dear friends or soon-to-be's, JtC could use the donations to keep this site functioning for those of us who can still see the life preserver or flotsam in the water.