The Weekly Watch
The Looming Economic Disaster
The impact of the Hormuz blockade has yet to be really felt. Countries have been tapping into (and not refilling) their strategic reserves. Somehow the market has been manipulated to maintain $100/barrel oil prices, but not for long. Even if the Hormuz was opened back up tomorrow, there will be long term consequences...and it isn't just oil.
Before we get started let me thank you for all the excellent comments and news source suggestions in last week's column. We had an excellent festival, and I believe a good time was had by all. We only see most of these folks once a year for the last 35+ years or so, but there is comradery among us.
Now on to this weeks news...
Michael's message is a bit frightening, an economic collapse worse than the 1930's...
Michael Hudson: Energy Wars Strategy as the U.S. Economy Is No Longer Competitive
(53 min) Michael Hudson, a world-renowned classical economist, discusses the US strategy of energy wars as it can no longer compete against China. Yet, in Iran, the US has run into a dead end.
He outlines the US mafia strategy to control energy and the world.
US-Iran Deal or NO DEAL. July Energy Tipping Point
(30 min) The Iran US standoff is entering a critical phase as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed and global energy stockpiles approach dangerous lows, with industry analysts warning that June and July could mark the point of no return for oil prices worldwide. Alex Christoforou and Alexander Mercouris of The Duran break down why the memorandum of understanding sits unsigned, how Trump's maximalist nuclear enrichment demands keep derailing any ceasefire extension, and whether Netanyahu's repeated assurances that Iran is on the verge of collapse are driving the White House toward a costly miscalculation. With Bessant managing the financial markets and the strategic petroleum reserves quietly depleting, the question is no longer if this pressure becomes unbearable but when.
00:00:00 Introduction: Iran US standoff overview
00:01:19 Pakistan as courier, not mediator
00:03:10 The memorandum of understanding explained
00:04:20 Trump backs off: Netanyahu and hardliner influence
00:05:19 Lebanon stalemate: Hezbollah and Israel
00:07:22 Trump's maximalist nuclear enrichment demands
00:09:20 Strait of Hormuz remains closed
00:10:23 June July tipping point: global energy shortage forecast
00:11:20 Can the US keep oil at $100 through winter?
00:12:58 Why oil never hit $150: stockpiles and market intervention
00:16:24 Strategic petroleum reserves and the dangerous game
00:18:23 Europe ignores its own energy crisis
00:20:42 Bessant managing markets: how long can it last?
00:23:01 Netanyahu's house of cards narrative about Iran
00:25:41 Parallels with Russia sanctions miscalculation
00:28:47 Iran's real leverage: the Strait and Gulf pressure
00:29:50 Closing remarks and channel links
America is agreement incapable.
Israel Pressing the US To Assassinate Iran’s Lead Negotiator
Israel is worse than the US:
Israeli Strikes Kill 16 Palestinians in Gaza Over 48 Hours
Hamas is calling on the Trump administration to condemn Israel's constant ceasefire violations
This is frightening - the US becomes Israel...
Congress quietly moves to integrate US and Israeli militaries
USA Collapsing: Washington‘s Soviet Moment Is Here | Col. Douglas Macgregor
(44 min) Hegemony is over not only on the outside but within the US, too. The decline is irreversible says my guest today, Colonel Douglas Macgregor. We talk about Russia’s next moves in Ukraine, the risk of wider NATO escalation, U.S. support for foreign wars, and why America’s base network and war spending may be unsustainable. Macgregor argues the U.S. is losing control, the economy is the real pressure point, and a major pullback from overseas is coming.
00:00:00 Russia and Ukraine Turning Point
00:13:40 NATO Pressure and Nuclear Risk
00:15:14 America Rejects Another War
00:21:27 Bases, Parties, and Retreat
00:24:50 Soviet Collapse and U S Decline
00:29:21 Cuba Puerto Rico and the Hemisphere
00:32:24 Empire Mindset and Iran
00:37:23 Media Pressure and Public Pushback
00:40:44 Debt, Cuts, and the End Game
Doug does a good job of weaving geopolitics and the economy.
Chris describes the US as suffering a humiliating defeat in Iran. We don't do humility well...
(21 min) Entire 80 min interview here
Journalist and author Chris Hedges joins Jimmy to argue that the US and Israel have suffered a "humiliating defeat" in the Iran war, with Iran now the dominant power in the Middle East, exerting a stranglehold on 20% of seaborne oil and natural gas, and that the war has accelerated the terminal decline of the American empire. He notes that Trump launched the war against the advice of his own intelligence chiefs and military advisers, based on a fantasy sold to him by Netanyahu that regime change would be quick and easy—and that the Gulf States were not consulted, their air defenses were stripped to prioritize Israel, and they now realize US bases are "magnets" for attack rather than protection.
Hedges warns that the key issue is the dollar: if China, Russia, and Iran succeed in breaking the dollar's hegemony as the world's reserve currency, the US will be unable to sell Treasury bonds, leading to an instant contraction and the collapse of the empire. He concludes that Trump is little more than a figurehead surrounded by sycophants who are eviscerating the administrative state, and that unlike previous Republican presidents who were reined in by establishment figures, Trump's second-term team is deliberately accelerating the implosion.
Forget the WH hype: Oil to $180/bbl by Year's End w/Art Berman & Lt Col Daniel Davis
(16 min) A clip from the full 65 min. discussion...
Oil Supply Crisis Won't End Quickly /Lt Col Daniel Davis & Art Berman
'Brent will shoot up': US energy executives warn of massive oil supply crunch
Energy executives say the world is weeks away from oil hitting $150 per barrel, with government and private industry reserves depleted
There's tit for tat strikes in the Persian Gulf, and provocation back and forth.
(69 min) Larry Johnson & Col. Wilkerson: 4 US Warships Tried to Enter Strait of Hormuz – Then Iran Launched missiles and drones.
The two Larry's have one of my favorite conversations of the week on Friday's.
War On Iran: – U.S. Ratcheting Fails
A typical U.S. tactic is to ratchet things up in a conflict. This is done by continuously introducing additional hostile measures. Red lines get passed over bit by bit with the hope that each step is too tiny for the other side to really hit back. The war in Ukraine continues to be run like that.
Two days ago the U.S. attacked two Iranian boats which it had claimed were laying mines near Bandar Abbas. (There is zero evidence that Iran has laid ANY mines in the Strait.)
Iran did not allow for the ratchet to click. It immediately hit back.
Israeli claims about an Iran 'threat' were always a lie. Now we have proof
It is not Tehran led by unhinged, genocidal megalomaniacs threatening the security of the region and the world. It is Tel Aviv and Washington.
Chas Freeman is an excellent analyst and diplomat.
(63 min) Chas Freeman: Hezbollah Strikes Israel Hard – Israel Now Prepares for WAR with Egypt & Turkey. Chas has started a new substack account: https://chasfreeman662157.substack.com/
British diplomat and analyst, Alastair Crooke
(59 min) Alastair Crooke: Trump Orders EMERGENCY Meeting as Iran just WON — Israel LASHES OUT
Alastair Crooke's Conflicts Forum Substack: https://conflictsforum.substack.com/
Alastair Crooke joins the show to discuss Trump & Israel's growing panic as the war against Iran continues to spiral toward defeat. Why has Trump called a meeting at the White House? Has Israel lashed out at Lebanon to sabotage the deal? Alastair Crooke offers his expertise in this must watch show.
The concurrent wars in Ukraine and Iran have similarities and differences.
(58 min) Robert Barnes: US-Iran FINAL Confrontation as Russia Drops HEAVIEST Strikes on Ukraine Yet
The War Comes Home
US freedoms and rights are quickly eroding as law isn't recognized and draconian consequences for unaccepted speech are exacerbated.
Our illegal exploits overseas eventually find their way home, and US citizens become targets.
(23 min) COL. Lawrence Wilkerson : What Remains of International Law?
...and I would add, what remains of the Constitution and US law?
Max touches on the situation in Venezuela, Cuba, and Israel and the implications of these conflicts here at home...
(29 min) Max Blumenthal : Israel Will Sabotage a Trump/Iran Deal
Another interview from the Judge...
(21 min) Phil Giraldi : Trump Full Speed Ahead on Israel
Is a new World Order emerging? Many think so.
(23 min) Pepe Escobar : Will China and Russia Tell Trump to Leave Iran?
Pepe Escobar: The Russia-China Strategic Partnership Deepens (Transcript of Glenn Diesen interview)
Empires come and go...such is their nature. The Duran and Neil Oliver traded interviews this week...
Technocracy, Trial by Jury and the End of Democracy w/ Neil Oliver
(53 min) Something unprecedented is happening across Britain and the wider West: both major political parties are collapsing in trust simultaneously, the justice system is being quietly dismantled, and the public is waking up to the fact that democracy itself may be a managed illusion. Alex Christoforou and Alexander Mercouris are joined for the first time on The Duran by historian, author, and broadcaster Neil Oliver, who argues that what we are witnessing is not an organic political crisis but a controlled demolition of public faith in democratic institutions, engineered to usher in a technocratic system of governance without consent. Is the elite overplaying its hand, and have too many people already seen through the playbook for this transition to succeed?
00:00:00 Introduction and welcome to Neil Oliver
00:01:32 The collapse of political trust across the West
00:03:25 David Blunkett quote: fury and hatred on the doorstep
00:05:13 Organic collapse vs controlled demolition of political parties
00:06:53 Grooming gangs, public anger and societal division
00:08:29 Both Labour and Conservative declining simultaneously
00:10:39 Historical precedents: power transitions through the ages
00:13:25 Are revolutions ever truly organic?
00:17:33 Why foreign policy is becoming increasingly aggressive
00:22:22 The internet as a double edged sword against elite control
00:26:11 Trial by jury is dying and what that means for democracy
00:30:43 Neil Oliver: why he remains fundamentally optimistic
00:38:17 War as a tool of elite consolidation and the costs of forever war
00:47:53 What deliverance looks like: turning away from the technocracy
00:52:39 Closing thoughts and where to follow Neil Oliver
Neil Oliver interviews The Duran - ‘…it’s a TAKEDOWN!’
So, let's accept the economic disaster is coming, What Do We Do?
If you can afford it, better stock up on those items on which you depend- food stuffs, tools, and so on. Is your freezer full? If not consider adding extra meats and so on. As I often recommend, get to know some area farmers. Fill your gas cans and add a stabilizer as well as topping up your cars. We're on a well, but we keep a few gallons of water in the pantry for power outages. What prepping ideas are you considering?
Perhaps in the future more stable food production systems will evolve...
The architect making America’s food system legible
Taylor and her Four Root partners practice a more sustainable agriculture—small, organic, labor-intensive—but making a living at that scale is challenging. Community-supported agriculture (CSAs) and farmers’ markets produce social benefits such as better health and greater community cohesion, but not always an adequate revenue stream. Taylor started asking, what’s in the middle for farmers? What options are there between working under the thumb of multinational food corporations and struggling with the limitations of local sales? Small may be beautiful, but independent farmers need processing facilities nearby to make a living and communities need that regional infrastructure for food security.
The old timers were self dependent. One I enjoy watching is a Brit, Jack Hargreaves.
How Pigs Were Traditionally Butchered
(24 min) The first part shows how they made their fish nets and various tools before going to the butcher, which some of you may prefer avoiding.
Join Jack Hargreaves as he visits a traditional local butcher to explore the old craft of preparing and cutting pork. In this fascinating look at a disappearing countryside skill, Jack explains the different cuts of meat, how every part of the animal was once used, and the knowledge that lay behind a good village butcher’s trade.
Point being we may all have to learn to be more self-dependent. We made it through COVID, we can make it through this downturn/collapse as well, and in both cases come out the other side wiser.
Hope you all have a great Sunday. As always, I look forward to your comments below. The thread is open ...
Comments
Hey, good morning
.
Glad your festival was successful. Summer beckons.
A good selection of vids again this week. Decided to
check-out the site Press TV which is an Iranian news
channel. Surprised to find the fed has blocked it.
What are they afraid of? https://www.presstv.com
Yesterday we had a meteor explode about 40 miles above New England.
It could be heard thru-out the region although we were in a driving rain storm
at the time so did not detect it. Missing the signal within the noise. It was estimated
traveling 75,000 MPH. Only about 3 feet wide,
“The energy released at breakup is estimated to be equivalent to about 300 tons of TNT,
which accounts for the loud booms,” NASA said.
NOAA’s GOES-19 weather satellite Geostationary Lightning Mapper shows the burst
over the Massachusetts coast.
Thanks for the Watch!
Zionism is a social disease
Good morning...
I saw the story on the meteor this AM. I've never heard the sonic boom from one. Interesting.
The blocking of presstv must be fairly recent cause I watched Pepe's Iran cross roads documentary there in the last few months. Might try a VPN.
Light rain today, but I'm not complaining. Have a good one!
“Until justice rolls down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream.”
Can't have them dirty
commiesAyrabs creating controversy by publishingactual facts on the groundfake news, ya know.be well and have a good one
That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --
But, but ,but...
Iranians are Persian not Arabs. They speak different languages.
Summary:
Arab people, or Arabs, are those people who inhabit the Arab world. “Arab world” is considered to be located in North Africa and Western Asia; Persians are those people who inhabit the Iranian Cultural Continent which includes the Iranian Plateau to the Indus River of Pakistan in the east to Turkey in the West. It also spreads from Central Asia to the Caucasus in the north and finally to the Persian Gulf in the south.
Arabs are people who can trace their ancestry to the original inhabitants of tribes of Arabia who lived in the Syrian Desert and Arabian Peninsula; Persians are a part of the Iranian peoples who belong to the Indo-European family.
Arabs speak Arabic and all varieties of Arabic; Persians speak Iranian languages and dialects.
I'm sure you were just cracking a joke, but US ignorance reigns supreme.
Hope you're doing well, and things on the left coast are pleasant!
“Until justice rolls down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream.”
Yep, just joking. In fact, I make an effort to get everybody I
deal or converse with very much to remember and/or realize that they are Persians and that Persia was civilized when the bronze age Brits still lived in hill forts.
be well and have a good one
That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --
The US is largely ignorant of other cultures...
Hell we can't even find countries on a map. No wonder we're in such a mess.
I knew you were joking...if fact you may have been imitating an Alabamian.
“Until justice rolls down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream.”
Good morning Lookout, thanks for the WW. Fun video on
butchering. As of the seventies one could still find "ranch butchers" in some rural parts of California (and probably all over the rest of the country too). Modern equivalents of small holders could raise a couple of pigs on scraps and such and make use of the butcher's services, also those with a goat or two or a couple of sheep for wool, could use them when the critters got too old, etc. They would sometimes also rent freezer space. I suspect that there are still some out there.
Kazakhstan has a lot of sulfur, but, of course they're part of the Rus Federation so even if they are exporting it the US and EU are probably boycotting it. Also, like 2/3 of Kazakh oil, any that is exported goes through the port of Novorossiysk, which the Ukies are constantly attacking even though the oil and some of the infrastructure belongs to a consortium that is about 1/3 US/EU (Chevron & Shell, among others), 1/3 Kazakh and only 1/3 Rus, with the Kazakh and Rus shares also possibly involving multinational joint ventures. (I keep waiting for team Chevron-Shell to launch a legal & diplomatic campaign against Ukiestan, and their fuilure to do so is probably because of the US/EU ownership of the Ukie war effort. tsk, tsk,)
Be well and have a good one
That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --
There is on farm butchering...
...in our area for personal use. Otherwise processing must happen in a USDA inspected facility...and there are a couple around the community.
As to Urea, my grad work was on using legumes to fix nitrogen and for many crops it was sufficient for good yields. Urine is also a good source of urea, but we send that nitrogen down our rivers in our waste water.
We have options but seem too dumb to pursue them. Oh well, enjoy joy your day...after all they say ignorance is bliss, so Americans must be very happy!
“Until justice rolls down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream.”
I don't watch many videos
as I can read 3x as fast, skip parts that I'm not interested in, and if someone writes well they will organise what they are trying to say such that it can be understood quickly. Vids are more for emotions. I'm skeptical of what is said in videos.
We're buying a Toyota all electric C-HR probably next week. It will be our daily driver taking the place of the 6 cylinder Tacoma. If we drive anywhere that is. Sold the Tacoma in a couple hours on Facebook Marketplace. The price of gas and things made with petroleum hurts those who consume the most.
Polling last week show a very high number of Americans believe the market is headed up over the next year, and the price people pay for equities is determined by what people will pay. I'm certainly willing to believe an economic downturn is coming our way, but it's just hard to worry after what happened over the past month.
I think most have already priced in Trump's idiocy in Iran.
You all don't want to hear it but Putin's war continues to degrade. Ukraine is planning that the war will end probably sometime in 27, meaning they will have all of their territory back then.
The pace of oil distribution and processing has accelerated with strikes at many refineries, heavy disruption of supplies within 200 km of the front and using AI controlled self directed drones impervious to jamming, and long range drones as far as 2,000 km. Ukraine is technologically pulling ahead of Russia, and it shows.
Seldom mentioned is that the US is supplying intelligence from satellite. Russia can send drones to hit Kiev and piss people off, but militarily killing civilians doesn't do much. Pinpoint accuracy on refineries, any oil truck, any air defence system, anything military at all, it adds up. Russia is losing a lot more than it can replace. Time is not on Putin's side.
I don't imagine Ukraine undertaking any real offencive until the Russian war effort collapses. Ukraine doesn't want to lose soldiers. For now, the drones cost Ukraine very little. Europe also seems to now stepping up on aid to Ukraine. Ukraine is a lot closer to taking back Crimea than Russia is to taking over Kiev.
I'm unsure what you're reading...
...but you sure are misinformed about Ukraine and Russia.
The Toyota EV is a good idea. We have a Toyota hybrid.
“Until justice rolls down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream.”
Their tech is mostly assembling stuff pre-fabbed in NATO
countries so that their NATO assistants and pick the targets and program and aim the drones and missiles. Though NATO has managed to get them to start attacking some military targets, they still prefer schools, apartment buildings, nightclubs and such.
The Rus have very killed very few civilians in proportion to their attacks because 1) they try to avoid killing civilians and 2) the Ukies use civilians as shields. They Rus, however, just warned all of Ukraine that the gloves are off and that if they live or work above, below or beside any military storage, arms production, command and control facility or the like they need to move NOW. I suspect that they will soon get a lot less hands on on-site help from all of their NATO "friends".
be well and have a good one
That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --
Good morning, LO!
When we go grocery shopping, we get food for the week, but also buy things like canned or frozen vegetables, cans of soups, cans of meat, and store that away for the future when shelves are quite bare. Anything that comes from China, such as otc common medicines, needs to be purchased now. China doesn't need us as a trade partner.
Every kitchen gadget we use comes from China. Toasters, can openers...I think about how old some of my gadgets are, and have bought spares.
We bought some extra gas cans and keep them filled and stored.
I see that we have room in the freezer and should focus on filling them up with meat.
As prominent as looming food shortages are in the news, I have friends, neighbors, and clients who have no idea that farmers the world over can't find or afford fertilizer. Crops were not planted this season, winter will be very difficult for us, even if the conflict in Iran ends today. If you don't understand agriculture and disrupt it, FAFO what happens.
OK, now for some video watching, my friend. Great WW today!
"We'll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American public believes is false." ---- William Casey, CIA Director, 1981
sounds like y'all are as ready as possible...
....and that's all we can do. We are living in interesting times. Everyday brings a new aggression it seems.
There's no telling what tomorrow brings...many suggest it will be a new bombing campaign in Iran. We'll find out tomorrow.
We can grow all the food we need in the US, but we'll have to change the system away from corn and soybeans and move to more regenerative animal production.
So we can observe the changes as we move forward...perhaps it will be an improvement? We can hope.
Y'all have a great day!
“Until justice rolls down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream.”
Soon we'll need it
...to buy a loaf of bread.
White House pushes Congress to approve $250 bill with Trump’s image
No Daylight!
CSIS Victor Cha et al. anticipate Xi will go to Pyongyang sometime soon and Trump may meet with Kim Jong-eun. I suspected something was going on, because I had 10,000 hits on my blog this month, which I haven't even posted on for months. But there's quite a few articles about Trump-Kim diplomacy last time around.
These CSIS guys vastly overrate the Lee-Takaichi relationship. They'll never get past GSOMIA in military terms. Also, early on in the video North Korea was cited as the basis for Takaichi's remilitarization efforts, and desire to eliminate Article 9 restrictions on offensive military activity. This is nonsense. The overwhelming motivator is Japan's anti-China posture and their imperial perspective on Taiwan and the SCS. The US-Japan relationship parallels their old relationship during the imperial era before WWII. The Philippines seem to forget the past. The latter embrace the old colonial mindset as the US reassumes it's military empire there.
t
Notice that Hankyoreh is reporting, that deliverables are yet to be seen from the Lee-Trump summit fact sheet. Allison Hooker was in South Korea to set up the working group. That no doubt will attempt to exercise control over South Korean policies, and facilitate the next Trump photo op, and likely not deliver much of anything.
[Editorial] Working groups on Korea-US fact sheet must yield tangible results
Thanks for WW Lookout! Max is a great journalist.
己所不欲，勿施于人。
Wonderful story of the Trump $250
...
As to Korea, I found it interesting that Persians vs Arabs web site had a comment which said it was like Japan vs Korea vs China - they are different cultures.
Hope you get a traffic fee on your blog! All the best!
“Until justice rolls down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream.”