The Looming Economic Disaster

The impact of the Hormuz blockade has yet to be really felt. Countries have been tapping into (and not refilling) their strategic reserves. Somehow the market has been manipulated to maintain $100/barrel oil prices, but not for long. Even if the Hormuz was opened back up tomorrow, there will be long term consequences...and it isn't just oil.

Before we get started let me thank you for all the excellent comments and news source suggestions in last week's column. We had an excellent festival, and I believe a good time was had by all. We only see most of these folks once a year for the last 35+ years or so, but there is comradery among us.

Now on to this weeks news...
Michael's message is a bit frightening, an economic collapse worse than the 1930's...
Michael Hudson: Energy Wars Strategy as the U.S. Economy Is No Longer Competitive

(53 min) Michael Hudson, a world-renowned classical economist, discusses the US strategy of energy wars as it can no longer compete against China. Yet, in Iran, the US has run into a dead end.
He outlines the US mafia strategy to control energy and the world.

US-Iran Deal or NO DEAL. July Energy Tipping Point

(30 min) The Iran US standoff is entering a critical phase as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed and global energy stockpiles approach dangerous lows, with industry analysts warning that June and July could mark the point of no return for oil prices worldwide. Alex Christoforou and Alexander Mercouris of The Duran break down why the memorandum of understanding sits unsigned, how Trump's maximalist nuclear enrichment demands keep derailing any ceasefire extension, and whether Netanyahu's repeated assurances that Iran is on the verge of collapse are driving the White House toward a costly miscalculation. With Bessant managing the financial markets and the strategic petroleum reserves quietly depleting, the question is no longer if this pressure becomes unbearable but when.
00:00:00 Introduction: Iran US standoff overview
00:01:19 Pakistan as courier, not mediator
00:03:10 The memorandum of understanding explained
00:04:20 Trump backs off: Netanyahu and hardliner influence
00:05:19 Lebanon stalemate: Hezbollah and Israel
00:07:22 Trump's maximalist nuclear enrichment demands
00:09:20 Strait of Hormuz remains closed
00:10:23 June July tipping point: global energy shortage forecast
00:11:20 Can the US keep oil at $100 through winter?
00:12:58 Why oil never hit $150: stockpiles and market intervention
00:16:24 Strategic petroleum reserves and the dangerous game
00:18:23 Europe ignores its own energy crisis
00:20:42 Bessant managing markets: how long can it last?
00:23:01 Netanyahu's house of cards narrative about Iran
00:25:41 Parallels with Russia sanctions miscalculation
00:28:47 Iran's real leverage: the Strait and Gulf pressure
00:29:50 Closing remarks and channel links

America is agreement incapable.
Israel Pressing the US To Assassinate Iran’s Lead Negotiator
Israel is worse than the US:
Israeli Strikes Kill 16 Palestinians in Gaza Over 48 Hours
Hamas is calling on the Trump administration to condemn Israel's constant ceasefire violations

This is frightening - the US becomes Israel...
Congress quietly moves to integrate US and Israeli militaries

USA Collapsing: Washington‘s Soviet Moment Is Here | Col. Douglas Macgregor

(44 min) Hegemony is over not only on the outside but within the US, too. The decline is irreversible says my guest today, Colonel Douglas Macgregor. We talk about Russia’s next moves in Ukraine, the risk of wider NATO escalation, U.S. support for foreign wars, and why America’s base network and war spending may be unsustainable. Macgregor argues the U.S. is losing control, the economy is the real pressure point, and a major pullback from overseas is coming.
00:00:00 Russia and Ukraine Turning Point
00:13:40 NATO Pressure and Nuclear Risk
00:15:14 America Rejects Another War
00:21:27 Bases, Parties, and Retreat
00:24:50 Soviet Collapse and U S Decline
00:29:21 Cuba Puerto Rico and the Hemisphere
00:32:24 Empire Mindset and Iran
00:37:23 Media Pressure and Public Pushback
00:40:44 Debt, Cuts, and the End Game

Doug does a good job of weaving geopolitics and the economy.

Chris describes the US as suffering a humiliating defeat in Iran. We don't do humility well...

(21 min) Entire 80 min interview here
Journalist and author Chris Hedges joins Jimmy to argue that the US and Israel have suffered a "humiliating defeat" in the Iran war, with Iran now the dominant power in the Middle East, exerting a stranglehold on 20% of seaborne oil and natural gas, and that the war has accelerated the terminal decline of the American empire. He notes that Trump launched the war against the advice of his own intelligence chiefs and military advisers, based on a fantasy sold to him by Netanyahu that regime change would be quick and easy—and that the Gulf States were not consulted, their air defenses were stripped to prioritize Israel, and they now realize US bases are "magnets" for attack rather than protection.
Hedges warns that the key issue is the dollar: if China, Russia, and Iran succeed in breaking the dollar's hegemony as the world's reserve currency, the US will be unable to sell Treasury bonds, leading to an instant contraction and the collapse of the empire. He concludes that Trump is little more than a figurehead surrounded by sycophants who are eviscerating the administrative state, and that unlike previous Republican presidents who were reined in by establishment figures, Trump's second-term team is deliberately accelerating the implosion.

Forget the WH hype: Oil to $180/bbl by Year's End w/Art Berman & Lt Col Daniel Davis

(16 min) A clip from the full 65 min. discussion...
Oil Supply Crisis Won't End Quickly /Lt Col Daniel Davis & Art Berman

'Brent will shoot up': US energy executives warn of massive oil supply crunch
Energy executives say the world is weeks away from oil hitting $150 per barrel, with government and private industry reserves depleted

There's tit for tat strikes in the Persian Gulf, and provocation back and forth.

(69 min) Larry Johnson & Col. Wilkerson: 4 US Warships Tried to Enter Strait of Hormuz – Then Iran Launched missiles and drones.
The two Larry's have one of my favorite conversations of the week on Friday's.

War On Iran: – U.S. Ratcheting Fails
A typical U.S. tactic is to ratchet things up in a conflict. This is done by continuously introducing additional hostile measures. Red lines get passed over bit by bit with the hope that each step is too tiny for the other side to really hit back. The war in Ukraine continues to be run like that.
Two days ago the U.S. attacked two Iranian boats which it had claimed were laying mines near Bandar Abbas. (There is zero evidence that Iran has laid ANY mines in the Strait.)
Iran did not allow for the ratchet to click. It immediately hit back.

Israeli claims about an Iran 'threat' were always a lie. Now we have proof
It is not Tehran led by unhinged, genocidal megalomaniacs threatening the security of the region and the world. It is Tel Aviv and Washington.

Chas Freeman is an excellent analyst and diplomat.

(63 min) Chas Freeman: Hezbollah Strikes Israel Hard – Israel Now Prepares for WAR with Egypt & Turkey. Chas has started a new substack account: https://chasfreeman662157.substack.com/

British diplomat and analyst, Alastair Crooke

(59 min) Alastair Crooke: Trump Orders EMERGENCY Meeting as Iran just WON — Israel LASHES OUT
Alastair Crooke's Conflicts Forum Substack: https://conflictsforum.substack.com/
Alastair Crooke joins the show to discuss Trump & Israel's growing panic as the war against Iran continues to spiral toward defeat. Why has Trump called a meeting at the White House? Has Israel lashed out at Lebanon to sabotage the deal? Alastair Crooke offers his expertise in this must watch show.

The concurrent wars in Ukraine and Iran have similarities and differences.

(58 min) Robert Barnes: US-Iran FINAL Confrontation as Russia Drops HEAVIEST Strikes on Ukraine Yet

The War Comes Home
US freedoms and rights are quickly eroding as law isn't recognized and draconian consequences for unaccepted speech are exacerbated.
Our illegal exploits overseas eventually find their way home, and US citizens become targets.

(23 min) COL. Lawrence Wilkerson : What Remains of International Law?
...and I would add, what remains of the Constitution and US law?

Max touches on the situation in Venezuela, Cuba, and Israel and the implications of these conflicts here at home...

(29 min) Max Blumenthal : Israel Will Sabotage a Trump/Iran Deal

Another interview from the Judge...

(21 min) Phil Giraldi : Trump Full Speed Ahead on Israel

Is a new World Order emerging? Many think so.

(23 min) Pepe Escobar : Will China and Russia Tell Trump to Leave Iran?

Pepe Escobar: The Russia-China Strategic Partnership Deepens (Transcript of Glenn Diesen interview)

Empires come and go...such is their nature. The Duran and Neil Oliver traded interviews this week...
Technocracy, Trial by Jury and the End of Democracy w/ Neil Oliver

(53 min) Something unprecedented is happening across Britain and the wider West: both major political parties are collapsing in trust simultaneously, the justice system is being quietly dismantled, and the public is waking up to the fact that democracy itself may be a managed illusion. Alex Christoforou and Alexander Mercouris are joined for the first time on The Duran by historian, author, and broadcaster Neil Oliver, who argues that what we are witnessing is not an organic political crisis but a controlled demolition of public faith in democratic institutions, engineered to usher in a technocratic system of governance without consent. Is the elite overplaying its hand, and have too many people already seen through the playbook for this transition to succeed?
00:00:00 Introduction and welcome to Neil Oliver
00:01:32 The collapse of political trust across the West
00:03:25 David Blunkett quote: fury and hatred on the doorstep
00:05:13 Organic collapse vs controlled demolition of political parties
00:06:53 Grooming gangs, public anger and societal division
00:08:29 Both Labour and Conservative declining simultaneously
00:10:39 Historical precedents: power transitions through the ages
00:13:25 Are revolutions ever truly organic?
00:17:33 Why foreign policy is becoming increasingly aggressive
00:22:22 The internet as a double edged sword against elite control
00:26:11 Trial by jury is dying and what that means for democracy
00:30:43 Neil Oliver: why he remains fundamentally optimistic
00:38:17 War as a tool of elite consolidation and the costs of forever war
00:47:53 What deliverance looks like: turning away from the technocracy
00:52:39 Closing thoughts and where to follow Neil Oliver

Neil Oliver interviews The Duran - ‘…it’s a TAKEDOWN!’

So, let's accept the economic disaster is coming, What Do We Do?
If you can afford it, better stock up on those items on which you depend- food stuffs, tools, and so on. Is your freezer full? If not consider adding extra meats and so on. As I often recommend, get to know some area farmers. Fill your gas cans and add a stabilizer as well as topping up your cars. We're on a well, but we keep a few gallons of water in the pantry for power outages. What prepping ideas are you considering?

Perhaps in the future more stable food production systems will evolve...
The architect making America’s food system legible
Taylor and her Four Root partners practice a more sustainable agriculture—small, organic, labor-intensive—but making a living at that scale is challenging. Community-supported agriculture (CSAs) and farmers’ markets produce social benefits such as better health and greater community cohesion, but not always an adequate revenue stream. Taylor started asking, what’s in the middle for farmers? What options are there between working under the thumb of multinational food corporations and struggling with the limitations of local sales? Small may be beautiful, but independent farmers need processing facilities nearby to make a living and communities need that regional infrastructure for food security.

The old timers were self dependent. One I enjoy watching is a Brit, Jack Hargreaves.
How Pigs Were Traditionally Butchered

(24 min) The first part shows how they made their fish nets and various tools before going to the butcher, which some of you may prefer avoiding.
Join Jack Hargreaves as he visits a traditional local butcher to explore the old craft of preparing and cutting pork. In this fascinating look at a disappearing countryside skill, Jack explains the different cuts of meat, how every part of the animal was once used, and the knowledge that lay behind a good village butcher’s trade.

Point being we may all have to learn to be more self-dependent. We made it through COVID, we can make it through this downturn/collapse as well, and in both cases come out the other side wiser.

Hope you all have a great Sunday. As always, I look forward to your comments below. The thread is open ...