Bernie's Magic Carpet Ride T-6: NY Polling Trend Lines

Submitted by Gerrit on Thu, 04/14/2016 - 5:04pm

Hello, c99 friends, just got in from the weekly trip into the city. Running behind on everything: darn good thing I got retired; now I have more time in which to run behind on all my projects :=) No time for digging today either. Grr.
Yesterday the classic catch-up "horns" were forming nicely in the respective NY trendlines, but Clinton's has flattened out today. (A new NBC/WSJ/Marist poll included has Clinton 57-40 - in line with their poll earlier and same methodology and error rate - which can be taken with the same grain or two of salt.) Below is the National Dem Race trend lines.

So this average still has Bernie in the passing lane. I'm reasonably sure he's passed her now. More digging tomorrow - the last three polls in this average are sniffy-looking at first sight.

Enjoy your evening.
Peace be with us, if we work hard for Bernie's campaign,
gerrit

Tags:

consciousness

Polls

New York

Bernie

Democratic nomination

2016

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Comments

Submitted by new minas on Thu, 04/14/2016 - 5:51pm

This just out

NBC/WSJ/Marist just called Michigan for Hillary Clinton

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/donald-trump-hillary-clint...

Clinton up by 17 points in Democratic race (nope, this one was for Michigan, really. . .)

In the Democratic contest, Clinton leads Sanders among likely primary voters by 17 points, 57 percent to 40 percent. But the race is closer among the larger potential Democratic electorate — Clinton at 52 percent and Sanders at 44 percent.

predictions:

1. they never release the cross tabs
2. people will find out on tuesday that any poll (like this one) that says that NYC votes the same as the suburbs needs to be given their hat and shown the door.

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If you do not understand that being part of the "establishment" is a slur in the minds of 99% of the U.S. population then you are completely out of touch and probably are one.

Submitted by riverlover on Thu, 04/14/2016 - 6:06pm

They cannot predict new voters.

And many may ratfuck with polling calls, the ones who do pick up the phone. Toss all out the window, it's a big ocean.

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Hey! my dear friends or soon-to-be's, JtC could use the donations to keep this site functioning for those of us who can still see the life preserver or flotsam in the water.

Submitted by Alligator Ed on Fri, 04/15/2016 - 1:18am

Ah, yes, Michigan!

Dewey beats Truman--in the 21st century. EVERY poll, every poll, EVERY pre-primary Michigan poll had Bernie losing to Clinton--even Nate (always correct) Silver. To paraphrase BHO: "there's polls and there's polls". Well my sentence would be there's letter paper and there's toilet paper. Almost all polls are of the latter variety.

Submitted by rmwarnick on Fri, 04/15/2016 - 9:46am

Looks like the few remaining undecideds went for Hillary

The poll aggregation makes it look like the few remaining undecided voters are breaking for Hillary. Of course, what counts is who will actually go to the polls - and who will be allowed to vote on Tuesday.

Sanders faces a hard reality in New York: Some of his most ardent backers can't vote for him

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"We've done the impossible, and that makes us mighty."