We're featuring the NY polls every day until the election in 10 days on 19 April. NY has 247 delegates at stake. Plus, the little matter of momentum and narrative.

Bernie's magic carpet hit some turbulence this weekend. His 55.7%-44.3% win in Wyoming wasn't as big as hoped and he lost a bit in the delegate math. And the weekend brought two disappointing polls, although they both had a b it of a thumb on the scale. More below.

Still, here's Steppenwolf with my NY election prediction.

NY Race

T-9
At T-9, Clinton's lead widened to 54.3-37.7.
Yikes, another bad poll for Bernie. But hang on a bit. It's Fox/Anderson, which 538.com gives a B rating and a simple average error of 3.4. It uses live callers to both land and cell phones.
Here's the poll report on it's phone mix:

Landline (748) and cellphone (655) numbers were randomly selected from a statewide voter file of registered New York voters using a probability proportionate to size method. This simply means phone numbers are proportionally representative to the number of voters in all regions across the state of New York.http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2016/04/10/fox-news-poll-201...

So a 100 or so more landlines than cell phones. How much of a thumb on the scale is that? We'll see this week when the next batch of polls are released.

Please volunteer for Bernie's NY campaign if you can. You can phonebank and facebank and offer logistical help from out of state. The reddit Bernie volunteering clearing house is at https://www.reddit.com/r/SandersForPresident/new/

T-10
Here's what I said about the Emerson poll:
There has been only one new public poll in NY this week, the Emerson auto-dial poll. It gave Clinton a 56-38 lead, larger than the week-long static poll aggregate of 53-43. Emerson gets a C+ rating from 538.com. I wonder which age bracket self-selects into an auto-phone dialler? Hmm :=) I bet the next poll auto-corrects this little stinker. (Update: Not if the next poll is Fox News! :=)

BTW: I wrote this on 1 April:
"The Bernie campaign turned the corner last night and the magic carpet ride is on. "All right, G! What are we smoking today?" :=) I've watched a whole lotta Bernie speeches. Last night's speech was in a whole different league. Remember the pleas for Bernie to "draw the contrasts" sharper? Heh, heh, heh, if you watched last night's speech, you woulda done the same chair dancing I did. He waited until NYC. Why? Bernie is smarter than us."
I stand by that even more today, T-11 :=)
http://caucus99percent.com/content/bernies-magic-carpet-ride-victory-beg...

Interesting note on NY having no early voting:

This election season, Hillary Clinton is 10-2 in primaries that allow early voting — and one of her two losses came in Vermont, Bernie Sanders’ home state.
Clinton is only 5-3, however, in primaries that disallow early voting but allow in-person absentee voting. Two of those five wins — Massachusetts and Missouri — as well as one of those three losses (Michigan) were virtual ties.
So it’d be more accurate to say that Clinton is 3-2-3 (three wins, two losses, and three ties) in primaries that permit in-person absentee ballots.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/seth-abramson/lack-of-early-voting-could-s...

Heh, heh, heh, early voting also opens the door wide, did I mention wide, shenanigans of the Clintonian-Rovian variety. Not happening in NY, thank you, NY.

National Race

The national trend lines are looking very pretty as Bernie starts to check into the passing lane.

This should be closer than Clinton 48-45. There's a Morning Consult poll in the mix with it's thumb on the scale.

Update: from the Department of The Dogs Bark But The Caravan Marches On
Have a look at this nonsense from Bloomberg. We're gonna keep old Helmut here and laugh at him on 19 April.
http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-04-06/clinton-can-t-get-...

Helmut Norpoth, a political science professor at New York's Stony Brook University, said while Sanders has been “on a roll” lately, Sanders would need to buck historical trends and peel off a significant chunk of those superdelegates to have a shot at turning the contest around. He said New York is one of his last chances to make that case.
“If she lost, that would be a shock and that might really put some pressure on super-delegates,” Norpoth said of the New York primary. Given Clinton's deep political connections in New York, however, and a significant minority voting population more likely to favor Clinton, Norpoth said, Sanders is likely to find that “New York's going to be very difficult.”

Tsk, tsk, tsk, "very difficult"...bit of a faux clutch of faux pearls there, eh, Helmut?

Peace be with us, if we toughen our minds and work hard for Bernie's campaign,
gerrit