What comes after?
I don't know who is going to dominate in this conflict in Ukraine. A sober evaluation of the past year points to Russia overcoming all the Ukranato forces thrown at it. A few dozen more tanks and IFVs will not make a dent in the Russian front lines and will be destroyed by stand off weapons from deep inside Russian territory.
The single Patriot battery promised to Ukraine will survive barely hours, as they will be a prized target.
NATO and the US are promising gobs more armor, missiles, and air defenses, but they can't be built and delivered till late '24 or early '25. By then I think it will be all over for Ukraine. Unless NATO and the US flood the battlefield with troops to keep it going. Short of throwing American GI lives at the problem in addition to guns and money, I don't see how this can be extended till election time in 2024, which is what this is starting to look like. A Ukraine victory, however faked, would do wonders for the Demented ones re-election prospects. They just have to keep the pot simmering a little longer.
With the Russians amassing 300,000 trained troops ready and equipped with the best and most modern arms and armor, I don't think the Ukrainian troops, and whatever mercs it's made up of, will survive the spring.
Maybe not even the winter.
So what will a Ukrainian battlefield defeat look like?
I can't see Russia relenting on it's goal of de-militarize and de-Nazify all of Ukraine. It won't be a negotiated point but a demand under unconditional surrender.
This goes completely against the International Rules Based Order.
Oh what to do, what to do?
Got two tins of popcorn left over from Christmas, all stocked up.
What do y'all think?
Welcome to the Tuesday Open Thread.
Comments
I think the west is running on pure narrative.
There are some major chinks in that armor though. It's becoming evident that the emperor has no clothes. A couple of days ago I rad a piece on Larry Johnson's site which summed up my opinion on this business. My biggest regret is not for myself but for what could have been had the pursuit of profit not destroyed all the potential.
DESTROYING MONSTERS BY HELMHOLTZ SMITH, https://sonar21.com/destroying-monsters-by-helmholtz-smith/
What I am seeing here on the home front as I am gradually reducing as much operational dependency as possible in the current non-functional society is more and more evidence of the non-functioning. As I have said, here far from the super-urban environment, everything seems to be running primarily on the labors of we, the ordinary people, the ones not chasing after a job in a board room or managing people. The infrastructure is broken. Not just the bridges and roads cause those are the just the paints that slapped on to sell the BS. I'm speaking of the flow of information and finding solutions to daily struggles.
A couple of days ago I saw another piece that talked of economies and how all measure of our economy is fake.
That is an exerpt from a longer piece from Alex Mercouris and it's important because it compares the economy of ru which is production-based rather than financially-based. This was from another piece, perhaps the Saker?
In effect, everything in our society is becoming what can be stolen from the inherent wealth in the world rather than generating wealth.
Oh hel, rambling.
2 days till the big move. The new apt is near a neighborhood park, back yard in fact. Looking forward to a quiet bench enjoying a glass of wine. Now if only I can find a non-commericalized glass of non-club wine that is a creation of the passion and love of a vintner and not the creation of an investor east of the Mississippi.
Ok, one more, I promise
A link to the longer piece from Mercouris:
Again, the comments add so much... because they stem from ordinary people, not the McKinsey types:
(added on edit): I think the shift happened earlier than Clinton... when MBAs became more important in our educational system than IE degrees.
Let 'er rip, exindy!
That comment you just posted is so very spot on.
While I am still self-employed, I do expect to retire, and do expect to live off my savings. What none of us can prepare for is inflated costs of the necessities of life.
The budget of today may not remotely cover food, health care, and shelter.
My other concern is our de-industrialization and move to financial has resulted in us importing virtually everything from food to appliances, to furniture and fixtures. The day when we piss off China and they stop exporting literally everything on the shelves at Walmart, is the day we will drop in our standard of living to 3rd world.
Best of luck on your upcoming move. I hope no furniture is broken!
"We'll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American public believes is false." ---- William Casey, CIA Director, 1981
Its possible
to live in this society with out Walmart and its ilk. Takes an effort but in the end you save money. Buy local think global works. I live in a city yet I'm able find local sources for food and our other needs. Trying to get better at this as I'm trying to eliminate plastic from my life. Hard to do but I think I can. Why any one with a brain in their head would shop Walmart is beyond me. I also avoid Fred Meyer, owned by Kroger. You can live well without these giant global monsters.
Please. I have a brain. It just doesn't work like yours.
As do others who shop where they easily and affordably can, at the best prices for the desired product.
There are no local food suppliers here within 50 miles, if that. There are no appliance manufacturers in the US. Go find a hair dryer or hair brush not made in China, buy several. Toaster? Good luck. We do not manufacture anything in the US. WalMart is not some iconic store, but one who can negotiate with China to get goods for working people that we cannot get from US manufacturers. I can buy a blow dryer at a local store for twice as much as Walmart, same brand. Same product. From China.
While you avoid plastic, I will drive 14 miles to WalMart instead of 50 miles to Houston, and we can both feel good about ourselves.
Good or you for being able to find local food produce.
"We'll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American public believes is false." ---- William Casey, CIA Director, 1981
I read that Smith piece too.
He is spot on. It's going to get much worse before it will jog the American people out of the fog we are in.
Much like alcoholics, we must hit rock bottom before there is any chance for recovery.
A collapse of the greenback will do just that, IMHO.
I applaud the Russians fantastic new weapons systems, especially the EW capabilities recently used to blind our surveillance infrastructure as it shows TPTB how futile a direct attack on Russia would be.
A defeat on the NATO/American battlefield called Ukraine will offer us plebes our only chance to regain our government of/by/for the people.
We should be getting ready to do so, now.
Thanks for the links.
Neither Russia nor China is our enemy.
Neither Iran nor Venezuela are threatening America.
Cuba is a dead horse, stop beating it.
Sobering and oh so sad
"An America of war all the time everywhere, of tent cities and full jails, of open borders, disappeared manufacturing, opiates, misery, poverty, corruption. An America with endless money to spend abroad but none to spend at home. (The hundred billion dollars dumped into Ukraine would give a $200,000 house to every one of the estimated half million homeless in the USA!) An America failing, no longer the American they loved, served and believed in. The Twitter revelations show some of the activities of this enemy embedded in the American polity. It’s very late and many fear that it is too late."
Cannot be put much better than that.
NYCVG
That’s an excellent essay
My question is why aren’t more people upset about government throwing money left and right outside the country whilst the inside goes to hell? We’ve watched them as they gutted the good paying jobs here and gutted social programs for the elderly, disabled and the poor and way too many people are okay with this. "Pull yourself up by your boots and if you don’t have boots then just get a better paying job even though your school was under funded and you didn’t have the same opportunities that rich kids had…". I too could go on, but most people here already know what I’d say cuz they have been saying it too. And like Larry points out we can’t vote our way out of this because every time we vote for someone who said they would fix things we find out that they lied and never had any intention of upholding their campaign promises.
Biden finally did though. He said that nothing will change.
Putin isn’t going to make you homeless or kill you or deny you health care.
Your government will allow it to happen though.
I have read three or four articles recently
re: the lack of savings of the American people.
Compared to the Chinese rate of something like 40% iirc, the US rate was a paltry 3%. All the articles insinuated the fault lay mostly to the economy, but leave out a very important fact. The interest rate paid on the typical savings account are next to nil, a fraction of a percent.
It is no wonder why the typical checking and savings accounts are near empty, they lose value every hour while the institutions themselves earn 10% to 30% on consumer loans using those savings.
Not to mention the fact that the money itself is subject to confistication under the Orwellian Search and Seizure Laws (remember them?), an add on to the War on Drugs.
Plus the bail-in provisions (thanks Obama) to allow the banks to rescue themselves by tapping into depositors accounts.
And let's not forget the seized assets of Russia, Afganistan, and Venezuela, and the gold reserves of Lybia and Venezuela.
IMHO, most Americans are keeping their money in a safer place. A lot of perverbial lumpy mattresses around now.
When they report that most Americans cannot come up with $400 in an emergency, don't believe it.
Neither Russia nor China is our enemy.
Neither Iran nor Venezuela are threatening America.
Cuba is a dead horse, stop beating it.
Not only that
but banks charge up to 30% for their credit cards and people’s necessary needs have gone up so much they run out of money long before the end of the month and have to use credit cards to make ends meet. Government has allowed banks to rig the economy against us because lots of the extra money banks get gets funneled into congress wallets.
Putin isn’t going to make you homeless or kill you or deny you health care.
Your government will allow it to happen though.
Dont use credit cards
Is the problem that most people don't make enough money to live on? Sad. We live on (always have) what we make. Although we've had help from our relatives in the past and some inherited money. Mostly we get by keeping out of debt. Strangely this keeps our 'credit' rating low. We never buy on credit. Guess we're lucky as what we own we own. Debt sucks.
0
0
If you have enough money
from your employment or inheritance to live on, you don't need a credit score.
Congratulations on your inheritance.
"We'll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American public believes is false." ---- William Casey, CIA Director, 1981
So what will a Ukrainian battlefield defeat look like?
Our masters of perceptual illusion will not allow the fragile minds of the west
to witness the unnecessary loss of life and property in its ugly entirety.
The 'good guys' neocons and neonazis alike, will never admit they fucked-up
big time poking the bear. Even when they are all deadened, their handlers will
say shit like democracy and freedom made this a just cause. When in reality it
was profit and return on investment of a military industrial complex that has
escaped morality and logic. More weapons and more death is the refrain.
question everything
Salient comment, QMS
I keep thinking:
North Korea- completely destroyed, sanctioned to hell, assets seized, not defeated.
Cuba- Sanctioned to hell, assets seized, not defeated.
Vietnam- completely destroyed, bombed to hell, not even defeated.
Granada- assets seized, not destroyed, defeated a rag tag force of policemen, yay a win!
Iraq- partially destroyed, partially occupied, assets seized, not defeated.
Afghanistan- completely destroyed, partially occupied, assets seized, not defeated.
Venezuela- sanctioned to hell, assets seized, not defeated.
Syria- Completely invaded, still partially occupied, continuing theft of assets, not defeated.
Ukraine- continuing crime, assets being sold off, likely defeat.
I see a pattern here and it doesn't involve winning on the battlefield.
Just sayin'.
Neither Russia nor China is our enemy.
Neither Iran nor Venezuela are threatening America.
Cuba is a dead horse, stop beating it.
It will look like Kabul
Gone, forgotten, wiped out of memory, the enemy now in complete control.
NYCVG
Yep
Yves talks about this today.
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2023/01/what-if-russia-won-the-ukraine-w...
Putin isn’t going to make you homeless or kill you or deny you health care.
Your government will allow it to happen though.
At some point last year --
Susan Watkins argued that:
and
There's a minor "logic" red flag here: Biden may be dragging out the war, but is the ultimate goal of that tactic really regime change? It appears, rather, that the point of dragging out the war is to funnel more money to weapons corporations. You know, the same "strategic goal" that kept the US in Afghanistan for twenty years. Such a "strategic goal" would also certainly explain the West's opposition to peace. Maybe they hope that Putin's regime will self-implode. I guess it could happen; I don't know.
The ruling classes need an extra party to make the rest of us feel as if we participate in democracy. That's what the Democrats are for. They make the US more durable than the Soviet Union was.
Maybe they hope that Putin's regime will self-implode.
Perhaps their hopes should be more along the lines of
"the American economy won't self implode"
put a real binder in their balance sheets.
question everything
Yes, Cassiodorus
"It appears, rather, that the point of dragging out the war is to funnel more money to weapons corporations. You know, the same "strategic goal" that kept the US in Afghanistan for twenty years."
Accurate and concise.
Another explanation for a protracted conflict is supposedly, "Weakening Russia."
As if it is possible to weaken an enormous country that has all the resource---natural and technical--- it needs to be entirely self-sufficient.
NYCVG
Great observation, NYCVG
Our ruling cabal depends on pillaging and plundering Russian resources to keep their bubble inflated.
They're beginning to panic.
Neither Russia nor China is our enemy.
Neither Iran nor Venezuela are threatening America.
Cuba is a dead horse, stop beating it.
Pirate Ship America
Maddeningly now stealing Syria's oil and humanitarian aid.
NYCVG
And with every day,
the possibility of a broader hot war leading to a nuclear exchange caused by human, electrical, or mechanical failure, or simply the ghost in the machine, grows. We are practically back to the "launch-on-warning" level of "readiness", already, and we ain't ready for that, already. We never have been.
I can very easily see the end arriving accompanied by voices in bunkers on each side saying "Wait- what was *that*?", rather than as the result of some order issued to implement some sublime master plan.
Unless, of course it is some dominionist SOB somewhere implementing the "plan" supposedly written in that giant committee-written Mesopotamian Tom Clancy novel. Maybe they scare me the most of all, because they'd be just ducky-fine with being raptured-by-plasma. When their consciousnesses instantly wink out of existence, they'll never even get the chance to know that they were wrong all along- nor will they care....
I care. 99 seconds, and then 98...
Twice bitten, permanently shy.
I continue to suggest to the "rapturists" I meet
to go on ahead of the rest of us and pull the ladder up behind them.
They have no humor.
Neither Russia nor China is our enemy.
Neither Iran nor Venezuela are threatening America.
Cuba is a dead horse, stop beating it.
That is a great response...
I hope you don't mind, I'm gonna steal it and use it on my looney dominionist relatives.
If you're poor now, my friend, then you'll stay poor.
These days, only the rich get given more. -- Martial book 5:81, c. AD 100 or so
Nothing ever changes -- Sima, c. AD 2020 or so
Dragging it out till election season.
Even a negotiated end would boost the Demented ones chances of winning in '24. The timing has to be just right.
By Halloween next year the plebes will be sick of Ukraine, and the MIC coffers will be full.
Then, rinse and repeat, on to China.
Neither Russia nor China is our enemy.
Neither Iran nor Venezuela are threatening America.
Cuba is a dead horse, stop beating it.
If winning elections has somehow devolved into making war
These didjiets have less brains than balls. Will it take a pinpoint strike against the Devos
dummies or the rupture of the generals to get the public's attention? Steadily working
toward the demise of the human race is not a very popular notion.
question everything
The cycle of conflict will continue in
another part of the world if the Western players are allowed simply to shuffle into the private/NGO sector and arise into new government positions in the future.
Judge Napolitano keeping Scott Ritter focused on possible ways the conflict in Ukraine ends.
(video starts at 7.59 in a 21029 min interview) First part explanation of nuclear weapons available to the US and Russia, plus scenarios for use. Worthy to listen, but the rest of the interview covers more areas we have not discussed as often and fits the subject of this diary.
[video:https://youtu.be/wzjqGDPmDlw?t=479]
No one has ever been held accountable for mission creep of past conflicts or blatant war crimes. The American philosophy of "it is easier to ask forgiveness than permission" allows an opening for the same players to keep engaging in risky behavior ove3r and over again. To get past this our society can't just let it go one more round of "aw shucks, I know you meant well, just a few mistakes - just don't let it happen again."
America’s strategy of failure comes to Ukraine Asia Times Jan 17, 2023 by Brandon J Weichert author of Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower.
Still yourself, deep water can absorb many disturbances with minimal reaction.
--When the opening appears release yourself.
Ahh, but were they foreign policy failures?
Assange said that one reason why we keep fighting wars long after we should have pulled out is to launder money to defense companies, banks, congress members and everyone else who gets rich off of the never ending wars. Biden promised us that after pulling out of Afghanistan we wouldn’t do long wars again and yet everyone involved in creating this Ukraine Russia shitshow is saying that we will be involved in Ukraine for years or decades.
This was Larry’s point of his essay and why lots of people are cheering for Russia. It’s not because they are Putin puppets, but the collapse of America is possibly the only way we get rid of the parasites that have been decimating America and their rules that says they can do whatever they want get replaced with international law again. It’s one of the best essays I’ve read in some time.
Putin isn’t going to make you homeless or kill you or deny you health care.
Your government will allow it to happen though.
I dissent
From the start of this idiotic misadventure with the joke government of Ukraine, I have been unable to swallow the notion that the careerist managers of the American Empire were so stupid as to believe that this farcical combination of self-harming sanctions and cowardly "aid" to Ukraine could possibly result in "regime change" in Russia. Sure, profit is made during the operation. just as somebody cashes in on every disaster. But this will be the Last Disaster for the Empire.
If all us random nobodies in cyberspace could foresee the inevitable defeat coming to Ukraine due to the obvious superiority of Russia in every conventional measure of power and resources to draw upon, I can't buy the theory that the Neo-cons could be such head-in-the-clouds ideologues to imagine that bankrupting our "allies" and our own population could possibly lead to a revolution in Russia and a triumph for their neo-Nazi pawns in Ukraine.
Instead, I look at the global unity in the covid campaign as the clue that the nation state is just about done. A global power structure is being established and there is no room for a top dog country. Our super-rich plutocrats have long since ceased to be "ours" -- their economic structures are globalized. Just as some off-screen authority drove the covid operation's coordinated insanity, I believe this "dying gasp" of the American Empire is kabuki theater leading to the demotion of the USA from hegemon to pitiful.
New World Order is on the way. You cannot be too paranoid any more.
I cried when I wrote this song. Sue me if I play too long.
They couldn't possible see
that trying to bring regime change in Russia could backfire and bring it to America. We, all of us, need to make this happen.
Neither Russia nor China is our enemy.
Neither Iran nor Venezuela are threatening America.
Cuba is a dead horse, stop beating it.
You make sense to me
I cannot see any way this ends in a way that does not damage the USA, even if USA/NATO fold their cards and flee tomorrow.
The arrogance of announcing to a country drowning in debt, homelessness and uncontrolled migrant population growth, that more billions are going overseas and expecting, what? cheers? ...is an action that sooner or later has to have consequences.
The shrinking power of the dollar may be a kind of tipping point.
NYCVG
If sanctions had any hope for regime change
Americans would have overthrown their government a long time ago because we have been under sanctions for a very long time because they take money out of programs meant for us and gives it to the military budget. Why Americans can’t see that is mind boggling.
Anyone read the Sword of Truth series? If so you will recognize that we are the old world that lives in poverty and misery so that their army can conquer the new world and make everyone live by their rules and in poverty. It’s not till the new world folks start interfering with the old that things started changing and people started waking up to the scam.
Putin isn’t going to make you homeless or kill you or deny you health care.
Your government will allow it to happen though.
One can hope.
It begs the question as to who is calling the shots?
I seriously doubt that it is the demented one but someone is pulling the strings of the lackeys in NATO, the EU, the IAEA etc.
B-A-R-F
Grotesque ghouls. Puppets for whom, I have no idea.
NYCVG
Ursula, you soulless war monger
Get a grip FFS. Begging the billionaires to invest in more war is akin to trading yer head
for a few more minutes to negotiate her demise with the hangman. Not a popular stance.
question everything
I think that this indeed is a valid point!
NATO is not only at war with Russia
They are also at war with the world
(except US).
And they are losing.
Will anyone notice?
question everything
Good morning earthling 1. Spent yestidday
taking advantage of notraining to get stuff done, and took brief breaks here, but for the life of me came up with no vision of the aftermath. I got up today and penned a comprehensive "why I dunno" comment and saw it get eaten because "you are not authorized to post comments", having been signed off overnight by some gremlins of unknown origin.
We can fortell the win-loss outcome because Teutonic Kniggits, Charles XII, Crimean Khanate/Kaganate, Ottoman Empire, Napoleon, Hitler, and more, but none of that really enables us to visualize the socio-economic, political, ecological and other effects on the victors or losers, especially when the losers, to an extent, include the Ukies, NATO, the EU, the US empire, The stand alone US, and the world as a whole.
be well and have a good one
That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --