Bernie's Magic Carpet Ride: The New York Polling Trendline T-14
Submitted by Gerrit on Tue, 04/05/2016 - 8:26am
It may be useful for us to feature the NY polls every day until the election in two weeks on 19 April. NY has 247 delegates at stake. Plus, the little matter of momentum and narrative. I think it could be very exciting to see the graph every day until then. First, it's magic carpet lift-off day, brought to you by Wisconsin, home of my beloved team...Focus, G, focus.
Below are the graphs from Huffpo. Also, Steppenwolf.
Here's Steppenwolf with my NY election prediction.
NY Race
T-14
No change from yesterday. Lazy pollsters, grumble, grumble...
T-15
Dem Nomination Race
Thank you so much for all you do in volunteering for Bernie.
Peace be with us, if we work for the political revolution, (from c99 to da world)
gerrit
Comments
They're holding the debate @the Brooklyn Navy Yard
http://gothamist.com/2016/04/05/battle_of_brooklyn_clinton_sanders.php The crowds of folks that can't get in will be YUUGE.
on purpose.
They'll load it up with Cuomo and Hillary's big donors. Democrats truly suck. We just have to take them out.
"Religion is what keeps the poor from murdering the rich."--Napoleon
That happy debating couple:
In that photo it looks like Bernie is giving her a limp-hand shake. Nice subtle diss.
I am now self-censoring a comment about Roosevelt Island and Bond movies.
Hey! my dear friends or soon-to-be's, JtC could use the donations to keep this site functioning for those of us who can still see the life preserver or flotsam in the water.
Ha, That article has some lively comments by Briggs ;->
It's Not a Big Enough Venue
That, plus those who want in, could be either violent and messy or NY crazy friendly and become a Bernie party. I hope it's the latter. And I hope the Berners who get in remember their manners, but manage to help the HEC people develop slience as a demonstration tool. No eruptions.... Let im slice and dice her in debate. He will, unless the audience gets out of hand.
******************************
Muerte al fascismo. Muerte a la tiranía. colapso total de los que promueven tampoco. A la pared con el unico porciento%
On my daily trip to read the BNR,
I had to read the rec list to find it, I made the mistake of reading James Kroger's diary defending Bernie and some of the comments in it. Talk about deliberately wrecking my day. I do not know how Bernie retains his kool with all of the shit going down on, around, and about him. I can't even phone bank for him. If I ran into one of the dailykos hillary jerks on the phone, they'd be lucky if all I did was hang up on them.
The GOP is going to take the nomination from Trump. No way Dems will give it to Bernie either. Here's hoping Trump and Bernie run as Independents making it a four-way race. This isn't about beating Hillary or the GOP for me. It is about destroying the Third Way and its Clinton machine.
"Religion is what keeps the poor from murdering the rich."--Napoleon
I flagged a tip jar in a dhonig diary.
Plus, I am attempting to do summer camp departure connection-keeping with my MOT friends. Some are already here.
My guess is that almost half of eligible voters would prefer to hit a reset button on our governance. We see the setup to shock and disappointment.
Hey! my dear friends or soon-to-be's, JtC could use the donations to keep this site functioning for those of us who can still see the life preserver or flotsam in the water.
dhonig
I really have to restrain myself. That toilet mouth is a leading HRC supporter at the orange place?? Surely shows the quality of the HRC supporters and she get all their recs. Ugh!
cinnamon68
one of the lamest douchebag Wall St apologists at TOP.
Here's a response to bobswern and TomP comparing notes about some of the worst disruptor Neoliberal apologists there:
"If I should ever die, God forbid, let this be my epitaph:
THE ONLY PROOF HE NEEDED
FOR THE EXISTENCE OF GOD
WAS MUSIC"
- Kurt Vonnegut
That person must be the resident house dick
which is ironic, given the site motto.
I've learned to despise dhonig's appearance in the comments - it's never constructive and usually as unpleasant as they can manage. They must be a relative or... friend... of the boss.
dkmich I think you're spot on
I think that Koch will shoehorn Ryan in and he's FAR FAR FAR WORSE than Kasich, Trump or Cruz. Ryan is so horrific an exorcist would entomb him in lead. and smother the lead all round in cement.
I want HRC out BEFORE the Convention or utterly beatable at that point. The time to split the party is AFTER 2020, and then make it a really CLEAN break and take the moderates with us.
I hope. I hope I'm still alive and in my own home at that point.
******************************
Muerte al fascismo. Muerte a la tiranía. colapso total de los que promueven tampoco. A la pared con el unico porciento%
w00t!!! Righteous, righteous talk, dkmich. That gets it said!
Resilience: practical action to improve things we can control.
3D+: developing language for postmodern spirituality.
wait. Gerrit, aren't you Canadian?
Outside forces working under cover (not)? Many of my Canadian friends are obsessed with American politics [at least during the Harper regime]. Unfortunately one was fascinated by HRC, but then his vote would be tossed if he tried voter fraud.
Hey! my dear friends or soon-to-be's, JtC could use the donations to keep this site functioning for those of us who can still see the life preserver or flotsam in the water.
Morning, riverl! Yes, I am a proud Canadian. We worry even
more than progressive Americans do. We in the ROTW have more invested in this election outcome, because we're the ones who will be doing the dying, not you folks.
Riverl, what I say in this comment about America at large, as it always does, has nothing to do with the progressive minorities among all U.S. populations. And I ask forgiveness fro my bluntness, because I get that a furriner may not insult the home team; only the home team fans can insult the useless, overpaid loafers. :=) Don't shoot the messenger.
I work hard at the progressive movement everywhere I can: the pipelines go north-south, NAFTA screwed everyone in North America, your Banksters walloped out economies too, your ICBMS and drones and arms-sold-to-fascist regimes kill and threaten all of us in the ROTW, your Monsanto does the same here as there, etc, etc, etc.
And when the lights start flickering in America, we know where the U.S. refugees will go: north and south. Americans worry about a handful of Syrian refugees. Canada and Mexico fear the enormous chaos and dysfunction that American refugees in numbers of hundreds of thousands and upwards would pose to us. Syrian are plasticity supreme mentally compared to Americans.
The ROTW have more invested in 2016 than do Americans: we're the ones dying.
Forgive my bluntness, eh :=) "G, you turkey!" Have a great day my friend,
Resilience: practical action to improve things we can control.
3D+: developing language for postmodern spirituality.
:::sigh:::
see comment below for a reply to your comment.
My
"last comment in the thread looks like the reply window is just below it but it really isn't"(LCIT) syndrome is acting up this morning.LOL! FFF My faourite new phrase; yup I got it bad too :=)
Resilience: practical action to improve things we can control.
3D+: developing language for postmodern spirituality.
Echoing Gerritt's thoughts
I'm a Canadian and I feel like I'm more invested in American politics more than Canadian politics. I think many people outside the US feel that way; some days I feel dejectedly like we're all just audience members while the US chooses the people who will either invade us via the military or corporations, rob us of our resources, or drag us into some kind of mess (not if but when).
Morning, Monsieur Le Frog! Yup, and much much more to come
At some point, the southwest will grasp that there really is no more water coming from our earthly heaven. And then southern eyeballs will turn north.
Here's to Canadian beer! Cheers,
Resilience: practical action to improve things we can control.
3D+: developing language for postmodern spirituality.
Eh (proper accent, not hay) I am so glad to have acquired
the North-of-us sensibilities. Although my forebears landed south of yours, I am quite happy to spend time in and near the Loyalist area along the St Lawrence, and find that long tension soothing for me. I feel connected to the rock and land, my husband went off the dock to particulately float toward the Atlantic.
In confrontation at that border (which I elude) I would probably bend north. So I mean no disrespect. I also realize that watching a meltdown might be more amusing without that 10 m gap between us. I also know that the GL will become a huge battleground moving forward. On that Ontario and the states bordering (some traitorous already) must stand their ground. Meaning We, the People.
Hey! my dear friends or soon-to-be's, JtC could use the donations to keep this site functioning for those of us who can still see the life preserver or flotsam in the water.
Lovely sentiments, riverl. Big TY. We're all in this same boat
(continent) together and if we work together, we'll find creative ways to share the resources, without destroying our environment or ourselves any further.
Resilience: practical action to improve things we can control.
3D+: developing language for postmodern spirituality.
ROTW
What do the initials ROTP mean? Thanks.
Inner and Outer Space: the Final Frontiers.
Argh! My bad: I meant ROTW (ROTP is an army training programme)
and it just snuck in there, the little blighter :=)
Resilience: practical action to improve things we can control.
3D+: developing language for postmodern spirituality.
Canada will not be overrun.
It will be annexed and assimilated.
Resistance is futile.
It's going to start with water
Wisconsin and Ontario are already at odds over water diversion from the Great Lakes: http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/kitchener-waterloo/waukesha-wisconsin-grea...
Canada has 1/5th of all fresh water in the world...
and water will make it a primary world leader by the end of the century. If it can keep someone (us) from taking it (and the country by default.)
I lived in Canada for years, 5 years in the Yukon alone and most Canadians understand the value of that resource far better than the average American.
The next 50 years will tell much about the survival of the human race and Canada will play a very big role,
True dat, FFF. We'll find practical solutions: I hijacked my own
thread by responding in full to riverl, eh :=) "G, you turkey!" How about we put the water topic into a post one day and go back to the article topic - Bernie's magic carpet ride. :=) Cheers, mates,
Resilience: practical action to improve things we can control.
3D+: developing language for postmodern spirituality.
OKOOH...
[video:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PfJm2RNlJuc]
:=) cheers FFF!
Resilience: practical action to improve things we can control.
3D+: developing language for postmodern spirituality.
Speaking to that dotted line on maps,
I always laugh. I think it's about 100 m desperate escape by swimming to cross from Canadian waters to US. I can spend hours watching the River rock and roll, imagining that dotted line rocking and rolling, too.
Hey! my dear friends or soon-to-be's, JtC could use the donations to keep this site functioning for those of us who can still see the life preserver or flotsam in the water.
water's been called "blue gold" as an investment commodity
for years, and for years, multinationals have been trying to commodify it.
Nestle and other cos. and US bottled water:
GENERALl: http://www.alternet.org/story/146116/are_greedy_water_bottlers_stealing_...'s_drinking_water
OREGON: http://www.oregonlive.com/environment/index.ssf/2015/11/gov_kate_brown_a....
MAINE: http://www.onthecommons.org/who-owns-maines-water-nestle-or-people
Privatization of water is the new frontier. Depending on where in the US you live, you can, or cannot, capture rainwater or access water in the ground under your property.
Outside the US, efforts continue to privatize water, a necessity of life:
http://www.pbs.org/frontlineworld/stories/bolivia/thestory.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/slideshow/2013-02-13/south-america-s-deadly-wat...
http://blogs.ei.columbia.edu/2010/05/14/the-water-conflict-in-ecuador/
"It is no measure of health to be well adjusted to a profoundly sick society." --Jiddu Krishnamurti
Yes, Birdie Overlord, Master Of The Universe! Sign us up! :=)
w00t! The party we're gonna have on Nov 8 :=)
"All shall be well, and all manner of things shall be well."
Thanks for the giggle, FFF :=)
Resilience: practical action to improve things we can control.
3D+: developing language for postmodern spirituality.
Recced for the Stephen King reference
n/t
lookin' good - help requested today for WI (see below)
For those who have time to do this today: Action for Kossacks_for_Sanders today during Wisconsin voting -- Help student voters ONLINE by looking up answers to questions, please!
https://www.reddit.com/r/Kossacks_for_Sanders/comments/4dgx5s/action_for...
"It is no measure of health to be well adjusted to a profoundly sick society." --Jiddu Krishnamurti
TY 2&fro: Folks, please check the link & help if you can in WI
Resilience: practical action to improve things we can control.
3D+: developing language for postmodern spirituality.
Come on Wisconsin- continue the big MO
Come on you cheese-heads (this is a commentary term) help Bernie take Wisconsin in a big way. Lets beat the negative narrative/spin and continue the big MO.
After today, it is onto Wyoming on Saturday then the yuuuge one- New York!
Go WI
I stole this from BNR or Opol this am. Cool new graphic.
“Until justice rolls down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream.”
Since this is about polling
thought I'd drop this here:
"Hatlem claims that in 18 of 21 states outside the South, Silver’s predictions have a pro-Clinton bias of 12.5%. He bases his analysis from what polls predicted, on what 538 forecasted, and on the results from those primaries. Silver has been averaging polls to predict primary outcomes and he has also been mapping polls and 538’s predictions to track over time how well candidates are gathering the necessary delegates to capture the nomination. Significantly, Hatlem does something Silver doesn’t do: admit his own bias—for Sanders. He writes that he has been wrong in twelve of eighteen states since Super Tuesday because his predictions had a pro-Clinton bias of 7%. In other words, he “undersold Sanders a bit” just to be safe in his voting forecasts."
http://www.counterpunch.org/2016/04/04/is-538-in-the-bag-for-hillary/
LOL! You got it, Julia :=) Silver's overreach is shredding his
reputation. He's just a bean-counter. After learning that aggregate polls read better than cherry-picked polls, he thought the fame made him into an analyst. This year though, has exposed the pollsters even more, plus Silver can't grasp that long-range polls mean nothing. He keeps forecasting based on such polls - in a terrain-shifting election year - and he keeps embarrassing hisself.
Humility is a reputation-protection virtue, eh :=) Lack of it will force an early time=call ont a 15-minute fame innings.
Resilience: practical action to improve things we can control.
3D+: developing language for postmodern spirituality.
If we make this movement big enough
it won't matter if they steal it from Bernie, in fact, it will help us kill or steal the Democratic party in another 4 years. I think whoever wins this election will probably get primaried after their first term, and that's when our real success will happen. I'm still keeping the faith though, I think we can overcome voter suppression and fraud with a high enough turnout. Anything is possible. Plus NY is the heart of OWS, there's a good amount of campaigning left to do, and the debate could serve us well. I haven't made calls to NY yet, but I'm hearing that a lot of people are undecided, they like Bernie, but they are still worried about silly things like "electability" and his "socialist" label, and I think those arguments are the weakest against him that erode every day. I wouldn't underestimate Bernie. I also wouldn't underestimate Hillary's capacity to utterly fail, even if she does have a machine behind her. The odds are stacked against us, but this movement is real. If they have more shenanigans in NY like they had in AZ (I'm already hearing reports of people's registration's being wrong) then the establishment is going to have to deal with this hornet's nest they are poking. People are waking up to the corruption of the party that has passed themselves off as the "good guys." The advent of the Panama Papers couldn't have come at a better time either, and combined with the FBI investigation, we actually have a lot of cards in our favor too. The establishment advantage isn't foolproof. It will be less so come 2020. The millennial bloc is realizing what they are up against, they might not have had enough time to organize this year, but the groundwork has been laid for the biggest voting demographic to have their say in the near future. I just hope some good progressive candidates can make a name for themselves in the meantime, Bernie most likely won't be able to run again.
bern baby bern disco inberno
Well said, mawnjilla. The wind is blowing strong behind us.
Resilience: practical action to improve things we can control.
3D+: developing language for postmodern spirituality.
Check it out before it disappears
http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/4/5/1510862/-Delusion-sets-in-at-Ca...
The individual has always had to struggle to keep from being overwhelmed by the tribe. If you try it, you will be lonely often, and sometimes frightened. But no price is too high to pay for the privilege of owning yourself. - Friedrich Nietzsche -
LOL! TY, Tim. Zuniga (big Christopher Lee voice), "Deluuuusiii
ionaaaaaaal, Boohawhaha!!!!" while long fingernails scratch down a chalkboard somewhere and a mouse shrieks.
And the sycophants howl with crazed laughter. What a clown show.
Meanwhile, Bernie keeps winning.
Best wishes mate,
Resilience: practical action to improve things we can control.
3D+: developing language for postmodern spirituality.
He's such a
colossal douche with that crap...
Yup, lunach :=) Best thing to do is to mock Zuniga relentlessly!
Resilience: practical action to improve things we can control.
3D+: developing language for postmodern spirituality.
I always imagine
a petulant child, stomping his foot. Or like the Napoleon who took on Bugs Bunny once, in a 'toon....
It gets repetitive--how many different ways can he possibly say the equivalent of "Sanders IS going to lose, because I said so!"?