Reports: Biden, O’Rourke Prepping to Enter 2020 Dem Presidential Primary
Various news reports, over the past couple of days, have indicated that former Vice President Joe Biden and former Texas Congressman Beto O’Rourke are preparing to enter the overcrowded, 2020 Democratic Presidential Primary fray.
(Personally, I think Biden's candidacy is still iffy; but, these latest stories are indicating he's making moves to enter the race.)
Multiple media outlets have published articles noting that Biden is already reaching out to leading Democrats in New Hampshire and South Carolina for local campaign management personnel, and related guidance, for his anticipated efforts in those respective states. Additionally, throughout the past 48 hours, it’s been widely publicized that Biden’s family is now unanimously behind what would be his third bid for the White House in the past 31 years.
Meanwhile, down in the Lone Star State on Wednesday, the Dallas Morning News reported that Beto’s going to formally announce the commencement of his national campaign sometime in March. A Quinnipiac poll released this morning––despite a somewhat deceptive headline––shows Sanders and O’Rourke running virtually neck-and-neck, with Biden running 6-7 points behind the duo among the Independent voter cohort in the state.
So, that’s Bernie, starting out of the gate, in a too-close-to-call horse race, with two other white guys, in––of all places––Texas, running against, arguably, the most centrist and most-closeted, centrist Democrats (people tend to forget that O’Rourke was a declared member of the centrist, “New Democrat” coalition during his stint in the U.S. House) in the race.
I’ll take the odds on Sanders prevailing, overall, hands-down!
Comments
Thus completing the set....
...of neoliberal centrists. Old white guy, young white guy, white woman, black woman, black man, Hispanic man. I suppose to be a perfect set you could substitute a Hispanic woman for Castro. Still, it nearly mirrors the demographics of the Democratic party. All the identity politics you could ask for, and every one sure to serve the interests of big business and the wealthy. Potempkin democracy.
"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." -- Albert Bartlett
"A species that is hurtling toward extinction has no business promoting slow incremental change." -- Caitlin Johnstone
If they can convince Castro to wear a dress...
They'll completely sew up the Hollywood vote with the first Trans Latina Presidential candidate...
/snark
I do not pretend I know what I do not know.
No, no
That's a good idea. If they can find a one legged gay female combat veteran they can hit the trifecta. Maybe for VP. Hmmm, maybe some law enforcement background......
throw in....
a stint at the CIA & GoldmanHacks.
Compensated Spokes Model for Big Poor.
A cynical take on some of this:
( apologies to all who want to hear "something positive", there ain't much going that resembles chipmooks and rainbows lately):
1. I agree with the alligator, there is doubtless a plot afoot to clear the field for white suited Shillary to come riding in to the strains of the William Tell overture. Have your barf bags ready.
2. O'Rourke is an interesting case, in that he is lot like Sanders, a (just barely) losing candidate who had significant coattails. O'Rourke seems to have spent a lot of the money he was receiving on party building throughout Texas, enabling activists to be paid, for example. He went to towns that had not seen a Democratic candidate in decades. Howard Dean, in a similar situation, ran for DNC chair, won, and put in place the 50 state strategy, which produced the Democratic Party wins in the 2006 off year election. The Democratic Big Shots and their donors are still having nightmares about that, and DO NOT want to see a repeat. So, I think, O'Rourke, who is relatively young and inexperienced, and enjoyed the heady experience of being a political rock star for a time, is having Place on a National Ticket dangled in front of him in order to keep him away from where the party needs him, the DNC. Give Dean credit where due, being from a wealthy family, he was somewhat immune to such shenanigans.
3. If voters in Oregon are still as I remember, they will not be pleased by having their Senator distracting himself with a long-shot presidential bid. Merkley was Speaker of the House (or the equivalent) in the Oregon legislature, and it has long seemed to me that his real goal is to be Majority or Minority Leader some day. If some donors are encouraging him to attempt a most ill-advised Presidential run, I suspect an intrigue by Chuckie Schemer, who doesn't want competition for his sinecure.
Mary Bennett
Your reply was upvote worthy if for nothing
else than the ‘Chuckie Schemer’ quip. That is, IMO, the shortest and most effective way to describe the true nature of the guy.
I used to wonder why the DNC was ok with so many candidates running in this election when they wet their collective drawers when Sanders and O’Malley decided to run (not that O’Malley was much of a threat) in 2016. Then someone here explained that this could be a way to allow the superdelegates to chose the candidate in the ‘second’ round of voting at the nomination convention. I think that’s a very real possibility and sounds like something the DNC would do.
I'm tired of this back-slapping "Isn't humanity neat?" bullshit. We're a virus with shoes, okay? That's all we are. - Bill Hicks
Politics is the entertainment branch of industry. - Frank Zappa
I think the more
the merrier. Less to control, unlike when her heinous had it all sewn up.
"The “jumpers” reminded us that one day we will all face only one choice and that is how we will die, not how we will live." Chris Hedges on 9/11
If none of them get enough votes, in step the superdelegates
and voila, Biden.
"Religion is what keeps the poor from murdering the rich."--Napoleon
That’s what my Magic 8 Ball says.
"The object of persecution is persecution. The object of torture is torture. The object of power is power. Now do you begin to understand me?" ~Orwell, "1984"
Or gawd forbid in second round
Hillary magically appears.
The possibility that the DNC could
resurrect Frankenclinton yet again is at least being discussed I bet.
I'm tired of this back-slapping "Isn't humanity neat?" bullshit. We're a virus with shoes, okay? That's all we are. - Bill Hicks
Politics is the entertainment branch of industry. - Frank Zappa
Blecccch!!!!
I always wanted to use that in a sentence, but it kind of stands on its own.
well, you may read stuff on CNN and find a lot of Blech
in there. So much so, you could call those talking Blech the Blechistas.
Sorry it's beyond my bedtime and then I have a silly mouth syndrome taking over. But tomorrow is another, better day.
https://www.euronews.com/live
YES! you are right. And,
this is exactly what I believe is the plan of the DNC. They flood the field with candidates to dilute the delegates and then on the second ballot, the super delegates select the pre-selected candidate.
I really hate the Democratic party for being very undemocratic.
Do I hear the sound of guillotines being constructed?
“Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable." ~ President John F. Kennedy
Reading between the lines of Beto's wiki article
His upbringing was at the crossroads of money and political power--daddy was a judge in Texas. He's committed three crimes, including insider trading, and got off either very lightly or scot free on all three. He did not enter Texas politics until soon after he married the daughter of a very wealthy Texas real estate developer.
And, yes, he was a member of the New Democrat Coalition. As far as I know, his dropping out of that is very recent. He was still a member when he ran against Cruz, which was when I last checked his wiki. Imma guess he resigned as a member because he realized that, while his membership may have stood him in good stead in Texas politics, it might not do as well for him in a Democratic Presidential Primary, especially one in which Senator Sanders was running. So, although this is not his wiki, his resignation leads me to add "cynical poseur POS, short on political principles and honesty."
Apart from the three crimes mentioned above, he's been accused of having abused his power as a Texas politician to help his father in law in circumstances in which, IMO, he should have recused himself instead of using his office to muscle poor people to enrich his father in law.
https://www.texastribune.org/2018/09/04/cruz-orourke-el-paso-eminent-dom...
Somehow, I think Beto may not be in it to win it, but in hopes of becoming VP. I could be wrong about that. Won't be the first time or the last. However he is unlikely to have to drop out early for lack of funds, ala Martin O'Malley, another one who I think ran to improve his chances of being VP and seemed to vacillate about exactly where he stood in relation to the run of the mill altneoliberalcon.
And a personal note. Last night, I told my sister the above, including that beto had committed three crimes. She replied fiercely, "I don't care." I have not laughed that loudly in a very long time. She said nothing else about Beto.
I can't help wondering...
...if Castro is also running for VP. I had thought Clinton would pick him, but it didn't happen.
O'Rourke and Castro are both young Texans. Balance that against on old white guy (Bernie) or gal (Warren) from New England for some age and geographical diversity. Could Texas be in play this cycle? Given how close O'Rourke came to knocking off Cruz, some people must be thinking about it. Castro might be able to get Texas Hispanics to register and vote, which could be enough to put them over the top. Delivering Texas would be a death blow for the Republican party.
Too early for us to be speculating on running mates, but not too early for the candidates themselves to be thinking about it.
"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." -- Albert Bartlett
"A species that is hurtling toward extinction has no business promoting slow incremental change." -- Caitlin Johnstone
Why Clinton picked Kaine for VP I'll never understand
He had to be the most boring, milk toasted person she could find. He votes with the republicans more than he does the democrats and yet she thought that by bringing him on to her campaign he would get more people to vote for her? How many people even heard about him before she did that? I hadn't. Did she think that would get republicans to vote for her?
Scientists are concerned that conspiracy theories may die out if they keep coming true at the current alarming rate.
That 90s Show
Clinton was running a classic 90s campaign. We had Schumer on camera explaining it -- run to the right, lose one socialist voter, pick up two moderate Republicans from the suburbs.
Keep running right until you get to 50% + 1.
I usually say that Trump knows nothing about politics, but he does understand that the persuadable, centrist swing voter is gone. He gives zero fucks about talking to them. He knows he can't get progressives to vote for him. So he focuses on his base to the exclusion of all else. That's the essence of populism.
The correct response to Clinton, that Starbucks guy, Biden, Gillibrand, or any of the other centrist bunch is "the 90s are over". You can't win elections that way any more. Talk to your base, focus on your base, then inch towards the center until you get to 50% + 1.
"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." -- Albert Bartlett
"A species that is hurtling toward extinction has no business promoting slow incremental change." -- Caitlin Johnstone
I suspect Castro is running
to claim the Latino vote, esp. in CA, and use it to bargain for something Latinos want. Which would not necessarily be something fellow progressives want. If he were to win CA, for example, I doubt he would be settling for DACA immunity from deportation.
Mary Bennett
That comment's pretty damn hilarious! (True, but hilarious!)
I love it: "...cynical poseur POS, short on political principles and honesty..."
(I kinda get the feeling you really don't like "the assho' from El Paso.")
"Freedom is something that dies unless it's used." --Hunter S. Thompson
So how does that distinguish Beto from other Dems
or politicians general?
Roll over Beto and tell Kamala the news!
Not a Beto fan here, at all !
He's totally underwhelming.
"Freedom is something that dies unless it's used." --Hunter S. Thompson
Dem dilemma: who does the establishment cheat for?
I suppose the major DNC websites are worth watching for advanced warning.
Is there a vote threshold for delegate allocation?
If so crowding the field with corpodems will only help Bernie. Some Berniecrats might defect to Warren or Tulsi (I have a friend who voted for Bernie - at least according to her, if not the CA Secretary of State - who intends to vote Warren) but none who will vote for some New Democrat whose name they can't even remember.
On the other hand, remember the old "favorite son"? The crowd the field strategy might succeed if say, Beto wins Texas (even if he finishes no better than 7th everywhere else) and the same goes for Harris (LA, er... CA) and Booker (NJ) This would most likely benefit Harris, assuming that she can finish 2nd or 3rd in the south, but winning was never the goal of a favorite son.
On to Biden since 1973
IIRC
and if they haven't changed the rules, 15% gets you delegates, less than that gets you nothing. The allocation of the delegates seems a little dodgy to me, but zero below 15% sticks in my memory. If you were to go by the DKos straw poll, only Sanders and Harris would get delegates, the rest of the field get lovely sets of steak knives.
The happy outcome would be for Sanders to build up a cushion of delegates in the early races until enough candidates drop out for one centrist to emerge, then the fight is on in the remaining states, with Sanders finally winning on the first ballot before the superdelegates have a chance to swoop in.
"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." -- Albert Bartlett
"A species that is hurtling toward extinction has no business promoting slow incremental change." -- Caitlin Johnstone
Harris is already lining up delegates
She is taking a page out of Hillary's book and getting them to commit to her before anyone even votes. So that kinda nullifies the DNC saying that delegates will be neutral until the second round doesn't it?
Scientists are concerned that conspiracy theories may die out if they keep coming true at the current alarming rate.
Leahy ad Welch have com out for Sanders.
See, the F-35 isn't all bad.
Not all bad indeed
It's too bad that it can't fly and every jet has been grounded. And it's waaay over budget after they have been being built for how many decades?
My point about the super delegates is that they take voting away from us. This is why people wanted them to go away. Not just moved to the second round.
Scientists are concerned that conspiracy theories may die out if they keep coming true at the current alarming rate.
Just ask any Superdelegate
who has been chosen. Then move along.
Neither Russia nor China is our enemy.
Neither Iran nor Venezuela are threatening America.
Cuba is a dead horse, stop beating it.
That is what I would call a traffic jam of wannabe presidents
and they bump into each other so much that they can't run straight anymore.
I would say that's a conspiracy to confuse the voters or that their campaign consultants must be all Russians... /s
Sigh.
https://www.euronews.com/live
More candidates are on the way
Out here in the Pacific Northwest, talk is that Jeff Merkley (US Senator from Oregon) and Jay Inslee (governor of WA) are gearing up to announce.
Merkley seems pretty progressive; he supported Bernie last go-round.
Inslee, on the other hand, is not a progressive. He points to his reputation as an environmental leader, but he is neoliberal all the way. Hillary super-delegate, kisses corporate behinds and gives them enormous tax breaks while allowing them to destroy the environment and the well-being of WA residents.
WA State is run by a large, inefficient bureaucracy that favors the Seattle area over everyone else, and that loves big business and corporate $$$. Oh, did I mention the MIC? Western WA has become one big military installation and training ground.
"Don't go back to sleep ... Don't go back to sleep ... Don't go back to sleep."
~Rumi
"If you want revolution, be it."
~Caitlin Johnstone
Inslee on a panel with right wing types
At UW next week.
Wasn’t Whitman Shrub’s EPA chief?
We can’t save the world by playing by the rules, because the rules have to be changed.
- Greta Thunberg
Yes, she was.
The military is aware that climate change is a national security issue. If I didn't seriously dislike going into Seattle, I might go to that UW conference and see what they propose to do with the situation.
(I keep remembering Bernie's response at one of the 2015 debates, in which he was asked what he thought the biggest threat to the US's national security is. He said "climate change". At that time, it was apparently viewed as a radical and silly idea by the mainstream, although of course the Pentagon knew it was true.)
"Don't go back to sleep ... Don't go back to sleep ... Don't go back to sleep."
~Rumi
"If you want revolution, be it."
~Caitlin Johnstone
My heart flutters.....
Could Robert Francis O'Rourke be..... President!?!
(Faints)
Gëzuar!!
from a reasonably stable genius.
And then, and then....along came Jones, er Hillary
Along came
Jones, Hillary,Slow walkin'
Jones, HillaryFast talkin
Jones, HillaryIt's HER time dammit! She is owed that by Amurikkka. HRC (aka Medusa) will push all the lightweights, including Bernie aside, just in time to save the Dims from the Orangeman. Bodies will be seen flying out of the Dim Klown Kar, as fast as popcorn from a popcorn popper, as soon as the top 3 or 4 seem to be struggling for a majority.
Hillary uber alles.