How To Avoid “Hot House Earth”

Here is a straightforward and simple path, a clear formula for action, a prescription if you will, that will allow us to avoid the catastrophic repercussions of a “Hot House Earth”.

Simply said...


• We must meet the Paris targets of 1.5 C. Not 2C.


• We must absolutely not open up any more fossil fuel resources around the planet: no coal, oil, gas - convention or unconventional.


• We need a definite phase-out plan for all fossil fuels within a two to three decade period.


• These must be replaced with renewables, with other types of transport systems, run-off electricity, run-off biofuels.


• All this needs to be underpinned by a new set of values aimed at stabilizing the Earth’s systems as the highest priority. All planetary economies must strive to achieve this. Any economic efficiency or GDP growth must take second place to stabilizing the systems.

The above operating instructions are from Dr. Will Steffen, a co-author of Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene. He says the above steps must be taken to avoid crossing the Paris Agreement threshold of 1.5 - 2 degrees centigrade, and that the 1.5 threshold is the preferred goal because it has a higher probability of not causing unstoppable feedback loops. Meeting the two-degree threshold is more problematic.

Who is Dr. Will Steffan? Most importantly, he is one of the 16 co-authors of the Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene study.

What is the Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene study?

Katherine Richardson, another co-author of the study says, the following about the study:

The group wanted to examine what a two-degree temperature rise above the pre-industrial level might mean - since the Paris Agreement, a political agreement, set this as the maximum temperature threshold to avoid crossing.

The scientists looked at the Earth’s history and found that there never was a period when the Earth’s temperature was stable at two degrees above pre-industrial.

They found that whenever the temperature reached two degrees above the pre-industrial level in the past, it did not pause, it kept pushing upwards until it got to around four to five degrees above the pre-industrial level.

So, they started searching for those processes that might continue accelerating the temperature growth. None of these processes were new.

They specifically looked at the interactions between the processes, such as the melting of ice, the melting of permafrost, the changing biological conditions in the ocean and the changing chemistry of the ocean. And they looked at tipping points as well, such as the melting of the Arctic sea ice and the Greenland ice sheet and the slowing of the gulf stream.

As they looked closely at the interactions between these different processes, they found that the result looked like a cascade, almost like a row of dominoes falling, where one process would trigger another process and then the next one and the next one.

Richardson says that once you get into a chain reaction like that, it’s just like a nuclear reaction, you can’t stop it.

Her conclusion is that humanity must make sure that we don’t get to a point where that chain reaction could actually be started. She thinks we need to hold human caused global warming to well below two degrees, ideally at 1.5 C.

Both Richardson and Steffan agree that the 1.5 threshold is what we need to aim for.

So in a nutshell…

We, humanity, must embrace a value system that prioritizes climate stabilization over any economic efficiency or GDP growth.

As well, we absolutely cannot open any more fossil fuel resources anywhere on the planet and in the next 20 to 30 years we must phase out coal, oil, and gas, replacing them with renewables.

Their assessment sounds right on. However, I will let your draw your own conclusions as to the achievability of the above objectives.

And this just in yesterday…

Earth at risk of heading towards 'hothouse Earth' state
Science Daily August 6, 2018

Keeping global warming to within 1.5-2°C may be more difficult than previously assessed, according to researchers.
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"Human emissions of greenhouse gas are not the sole determinant of temperature on Earth. Our study suggests that human-induced global warming of 2°C may trigger other Earth system processes, often called "feedbacks," that can drive further warming -- even if we stop emitting greenhouse gases," says lead author Will Steffen from the Australian National University and Stockholm Resilience Centre. "Avoiding this scenario requires a redirection of human actions from exploitation to stewardship of the Earth system."
Currently, global average temperatures are just over 1°C above pre-industrial and rising at 0.17°C per decade.

Another new study looked at how land-based plants responded 20,000 years ago to temperature changes. Based on their findings, they estimate that the Earth’s entire terrestrial system has a 75% likelihood of changing--unless we act quickly…

Climate Change Could Completely Transform Earth’s Ecosystems
EcoWatch September 1, 2018

Forty-two scientists contributed to a study published in Science Friday that examined how land-based plants had responded to temperature changes of four to seven degrees Celsius since the height of the ice age in order to predict how land-based ecosystems might respond to similar temperature changes predicted for the future.

They found that, if we do not act quickly to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the earth's entire terrestrial biome is 75 percent likely to change completely, impacting biodiversity and making life difficult for anyone whose livelihood is based around an ecosystem as it exists now.

"Having this kind of change occur at such a massive scale in such a short period of time is going to create unprecedented challenges for natural-resource management," study author and U.S. Geological Survey climate scientist Stephen Jackson told The Atlantic.

And another one…

Adapt, move or die: How biodiversity reacted to past climate change
Center for Macroecology, Evolution and Climate August 30, 2018

A new paper reviews current knowledge on climate change and biodiversity. In the past, plants and animals reacted to environmental changes by adapting, migrating or going extinct. These findings point to radical changes in biodiversity due to climate change in the future. The paper is published in the scientific journal Trends in Ecology and Evolution by an international group of scientists led by the Center for Macroecology, Evolution and Climate, University of Copenhagen.
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Until now, scientists thought species’ main reaction to climatic changes was to move. However, the new study shows that local adaptation to new conditions seems to have played a key role in the way species survived. Species adapt when the whole population change, e.g. when all owls get darker body colour. This happens slowly over a long period of time. Coauthor Stephen Jackson, director of the US Geological Survey's Southwest Climate Adaptation Science Center, elaborates,

”From fossils and other biological “archives”, we have access to a nearly limitless number of case studies throughout Earth’s history. This provides us with valuable knowledge of how climate changes of various rates, magnitudes, and types can affect biodiversity”

HOT AIR NEWS ROUNDUP
Last week we had comments on local weather. What is it like where you live? How are conditions changing? What about plant and animal life? How is quality of life deteriorating--smoke, high temperatures, high CO2?

Paul Beckwith talks about his local weather and how it affects others.
[video:https://youtu.be/l8aeIbQzXfw]
American Cities Lose 36 Million Trees a Year. But There’s a Radical New Plan to Save Them.
Mother Jones September 1, 2018

The evidence is in: Urban trees improve air and water quality, reduce energy costs, and improve human health, even as they offer the benefit of storing carbon. And in cities across the country, they are disappearing.

A recent paper by two US Forest Service scientists reported that metropolitan areas in the US are losing about 36 million trees each year. The paper, by David Nowak and Eric Greenfield, was an expansion of the same researchers’ 2012 study that found significant tree loss in 17 out of the 20 US cities studied.
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To find more funding for urban trees, some local governments, including Austin, Texas and King County, Washington (where Seattle is located), are running pilot projects with a Seattle-based nonprofit called City Forest Credits (CFC). The nonprofit is developing a new approach: generating funding for city tree canopies from private companies (and individuals) that wish to offset their carbon emissions by buying credits for tree planting or preservation.

Greenhouse emissions from Siberian rivers peak as permafrost thaws
Faster Than Expected September 1, 2018

“This was an unexpected finding as it means that Western Siberian rivers actively process and release large part of the carbon they receive from degrading permafrost and that the magnitude of these emissions might increase as climate continues to warm”

Most land-based ecosystems worldwide risk ‘major transformation’ due to climate change
Michigan News August 30, 2018

The researchers used fossil records of global vegetation change that occurred during a period of post-glacial warming to project the magnitude of ecosystem transformations likely in the future under various greenhouse gas emissions scenarios.

They found that under a “business as usual” emissions scenario, in which little is done to rein in heat-trapping greenhouse-gas emissions, vegetation changes across the planet’s wild landscapes will likely be more far-reaching and disruptive than earlier studies suggested.

The changes would threaten global biodiversity and derail vital services that nature provides to humanity, such as water security, carbon storage and recreation, according to study co-author Jonathan Overpeck, dean of the School for Environment and Sustainability at the University of Michigan.

“If we allow climate change to go unchecked, the vegetation of this planet is going to look completely different than it does today, and that means a huge risk to the diversity of the planet,” said Overpeck, who conceived the idea for the study with corresponding author Stephen T. Jackson of the U.S. Geological Survey.

An ocean ‘heat wave’ just drove temperatures off Maine to near-record highs
Climate Signals August 31, 2018

Sea surface temperatures in the vast Gulf of Maine hit a near-record high of 68.93 degrees Fahrenheit on Aug. 8, part of what scientists called a month-long “marine heat wave” in the normally chilly waters that are home to everything from lobsters to whales.

In some parts of the gulf, surface temperatures soared to nearly 11 degrees warmer than normal.

Using satellite data, scientists at the Gulf of Maine Research Institute said that over the past 30 years, the waters there have warmed at a rate more than three times the global average. Over the past 15 years, it has warmed at seven times that average.

Fears over climate change hit highest level in a decade following heatwave, study says
The Independent September 5, 2018

British people’s concern over climate change hit the highest level in almost a decade amid the record-breaking heatwave which swept across Britain this summer, a new poll has revealed.
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The poll by Opinium showed 60 per cent of British adults think climate change made the heatwave “stronger or more likely to happen”. It also revealed almost a third of respondents (30 per cent) now describe themselves as “very concerned” about climate change – higher than any poll since 2008. A further 42 per cent said they are “fairly” concerned.
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The research also indicated that climate change is among the top five issues the public, particularly younger people, want politicians to talk about more – ahead of prominent issues like Brexit, the economy and education, though behind health, immigration, housing and crime.

Climate change: local efforts won't be enough to undo Trump's inaction, study says
Guardian August 29, 2018

“When we look at the individual pledges [by cities, regions and businesses] the impact isn’t that large so we absolutely need national governments to pull through and do a lot of the heavy lifting,” said Dr Angel Hsu, the director of Data-Driven Yale, which led the study.

“The actions of cities, companies and states aren’t insignificant but they can’t do it by themselves. This shows everyone can be doing more. The current reductions are woefully inadequate and hopefully the actions of other entities will give national governments the confidence to be more ambitious.”

The analyzed reductions, taken from nine high-emitting countries such as the US, China, India and Brazil, as well as the European Union, overlap with some national efforts that increase the total contribution of emissions cuts.

But this action isn’t sufficient to bridge a gap between the Paris agreement’s goal to avoid 2C (3.6F) of global warming, with an aspiration of avoiding a 1.5C increase, and the insufficient emissions reductions put forward by the deal’s nearly 200 national signatories.

Scientists find pocket of warm water trapped under Arctic with potential to melt entire ice pack
The Independent August 31, 2018

This effect could be exacerbated in one of the Arctic Ocean’s major regions – known as the Canadian Basin – by the influx of warmer water that is currently stored underneath it.

Using data collected over the past 30 years, researchers at Yale University and Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution saw the “heat content” of the area had doubled during this period.
They were able to trace this water to the Chukchi Sea further south, where the regional decline in sea ice has left the water very exposed to the summer sun.

After heating up, this water has been driven north by Arctic winds, but has remained below the top layer of water – resulting in a high-temperature zone trapped far beneath the ice pack.

Extreme Heat Likely Cooked 2,000 Fish to Death in Malibu Lagoon
Live Science August 30, 2018

Some fish just can't take the heat. And unfortunately, that's probably why an estimated 2,000 striped mullet (Mugil cephalus) suddenly died in Malibu Lagoon and Malibu Creek in Southern California last week.

California: Global warming, El Niño could cause wetter winters, drier conditions in other months
Science Daily Sept 4, 2018

UC Riverside Earth Sciences Professor Robert Allen's research indicates that what precipitation the state does get will be pretty much limited to the winter months -- think deluge-type rainfall rather than snow -- and non-winter months will be even dryer than usual, with little or no rain at all.
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The paper focuses on how "greenhouse-gas-induced climate change" will affect drought conditions in the state. The findings are based on 40 climate models that were compared to actual precipitation, soil moisture, and streamflow in the state between 1950 and 2000.
Historically, about 90 percent of California's rain and snow have come during the winter months of December, January, and February, Allen said, with sporadic rain scattered over the rest of the year. But now, warming surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean are expected to amplify the rainy season by sending stormy El Niño conditions over the state in the winter.

Bottom line, Allen said, the flooding and mudslides that accompanied the heavy winter rains of 2017 shouldn't be considered an aberration, but potentially California's new weather norm.

Where Is the War on Climate Change?
Truthdig August 29, 2018

A team of researchers at George Washington University has estimated that deaths of Americans in Puerto Rico during and after last year’s Hurricane Maria reached almost 3,000, a number accepted by the governor.
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But the climate catastrophe of Maria was not greeted in the same way. First, the Washington elite announced the death toll as unrealistically low. Presumably because Puerto Ricans are Spanish-speaking Americans, their deaths did not preoccupy our newspapers of record day after day the way  those of the 9/11 victims did.

The U.S. government announced no new initiative to tackle the problem of global heating, caused by humans burning gasoline, coal and natural gas. Indeed, the president of the United States and most senators and congressmen from his party deny that humans are causing climate change.

Climate change means the last call of Missouri songbirds
Kansas City Star August 15, 2018

Worse, there is emerging evidence that even the most abundant species could be devastated if the climate continues to warm on its current course.

With my colleagues at the University of Missouri and the U.S. Forest Service’s Northern Research Station, I recently published a study showing that if climate change is not slowed or reversed, a common songbird in the Midwest — the Acadian flycatcher — could approach extinction in this region within this century. The study relies on over 20 years of data collected in the 96-million-acre Central Hardwoods region of the U.S.

Nature is a complex balance of species and environmental factors that constantly interact with and influence each other. Any change to the environment, such as a warming climate, can shift the balance with serious consequences. In this case, higher temperatures would endanger the ability of female flycatchers to breed successfully, leading to a steep drop in their population.

Number of "marine heat waves" roughly doubled between 1982 and 2016, study finds
CBS News August 15, 2018

Even the oceans are breaking temperature records in this summer of heat waves. Off the San Diego coast, scientists earlier this month recorded all-time high seawater temperatures since daily measurements began in 1916.

"Just like we have heat waves on land, we also have heat waves in the ocean," said Art Miller of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography.
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"This trend will only further accelerate with global warming," said Thomas Frolicher, a climate scientist at the University of Bern in Switzerland, who led the research.

His team defined marine heat waves as extreme events in which sea-surface temperatures exceeded the 99th percentile of measurements for a given location. Because oceans both absorb and release heat more slowly than air, most marine heat waves last for at least several days -- and some for several weeks, said Frolicher.

"We knew that average temperatures were rising. What we haven't focused on before is that the rise in the average comes at you in clumps of very hot days -- a shock of several days or weeks of very high temperatures," said Michael Oppenheimer, a Princeton University climate scientist who was not involved in the study.
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Changes in ocean circulation associated with warmer surface waters will likely mean decreased production of phytoplankton, the tiny organisms that form the basis of the marine food web, he said.

Australia joins Pacific to declare climate ‘single greatest’ security threat
Climate Home News Sepember 5, 2018

Australia joined other Pacific island governments in a joint statement on Wednesday that named climate change as the major security issue facing the region.

At a meeting of the Pacific Islands Forum on Nauru on Wednesday, leaders signed the Boe Declaration, which recognised climate change as “the single greatest threat to the livelihoods security and wellbeing of peoples of the Pacific”.

The declaration also committed signatories to follow through on the promises made in the 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change.

Australia’s new foreign minister Marise Payne signed the document. Her government recently deposed prime minister Malcolm Turnbull after he proposed moderate measures to bring down carbon emissions. Australia currently has no policy designed to meet the targets it set in the Paris deal.

A majestic glacier on a NASA campaign's return to Greenland
NASA GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE August 30, 2018

But Apusiaajik is like most of Greenland’s glaciers, it’s out of balance — melting faster than it can be replenished by winter snowfall.
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The goal each year is to blanket Greenland’s continental shelf with probes measuring the seawater’s temperature and salinity. This year, the team has already dropped 89 out of 250 probes, starting at the southern tip of Greenland and working up the east coast.
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“We’re beginning to see the signs of long-term changes on Greenland’s continental shelf — changes that take years to happen,” Willis says. “We’ve never seen that before.”
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Greenland’s continental shelf is shallow, averaging about 1,600 feet (500 meters) deep. But it’s gashed by troughs carved by ancient glaciers, which can be two times deeper than that. These troughs are natural conduits for deep water to get up on the shelf, but it’s not an easy passage. Sills and underwater mountains within the troughs impede the flow and create basins.

Paul Beckwith: "I declare a global climate change emergency to claw back up the rock face to attempt to regain system stability, or face an untenable calamity of biblical proportions."

Kevin Hester: "There is no past analogue for the rapidity of what we are baring witness to. There has been a flood of articles ... 2C is no longer attainable and that we are heading for dangerous climate change"

Guy McPherson: "The recent and near-future rises in temperature are occurring and will occur at least an order of magnitude faster than the worst of all prior Mass Extinctions. Habitat for human animals is disappearing throughout the world, and abrupt climate change has barely begun."

me… We need to turn on a dime at mach nine!

Enjoy!