Trump is about to trigger a recession
Since the early 1970's there's been a consistent, measurable pattern.
Every boom in the U.S. economy is different, but over the past several decades, each has ended the same way. First you get full employment. Then you get a spike in the price of oil. And then there's a recession.
Oil prices are rarely the only cause of recessions, but they are a critical element.
Only in 1990 and 2018 did the U.S. intentionally cause oil prices to spike.
Crude oil could surge to more than $120 a barrel, according to Bank of America Merill Lynch analysts, if the Trump administration were to order a complete cutoff of Iranian barrels before the end of the year."Oil is now a game of chicken," the analysts wrote in a note Thursday. They said zero-tolerance sanctions on Iran — the fourth-largest oil producer — could add $50 per barrel to crude prices, which are up more than 25% this year. Brent, the international benchmark, is currently trading at around $77 a barrel.
And Saudi Arabia recently agreed to increase production by two million barrels per day, according to a White House statement.But analysts are skeptical Saudi Arabia will be able to keep up.
"It appears the oil market has little confidence that Iran volumes can be easily replaced," the analysts wrote.
So what does $120 a barrel of oil mean? Simply, recession.
"A combination of global demand strength, OPEC restraint, and geopolitical and sanctions related uncertainty" is pushing oil higher, a team of economists from UBS wrote on Tuesday, arguing that these factors could lead oil to $100 a barrel.The economic consequences of such a move could be huge and could even signal a US recession, the UBS team led by Arend Kapteyn said.
“Your tweets have increased the prices by at least $10. Please stop this method.”
- OPEC Governor Hossein Kazempour Ardebili
This is what we are looking at if Trump gets what he wants.
Iran is threatening to "disrupt oil shipments to neighboring countries" or even much worse.
Mohammad Ali Jafari, the Guards commander, was quoted by the semi-official Tasnim news agency as saying: “We will make the enemy understand that either everyone can use the Strait of Hormuz or no one.”
War in the Strait of Hormuz, even just sinking a couple ships in the strait, would spike oil prices in a way that we've never seen.
China, India and Turkey have refused to commit to Trump's sanctions.
All of this is happening while the yield curve is about to invert, the traditional indicator of a coming recession.
Comments
Economic Failure Is a Surefire Weapon for Impeachment
Wait for Drumpf to be the sole cause of this. He's going to wind up the Capitalist whipping boy.
I could see this as a another political heat sink, and it's one that comes down straight from corporate.
Even your post here puts all the blame on Drumpf, and we both know this was the doing of the business cycle and the plan: lose money, gain marketshare, and disempowering and hollowing out government while doing so.
“Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat.” ~ Sun Tzu
We would have a recession anyway
But Trump is looking to be the catalyst for it, and thus get the legitimate blame.
He's taken credit for economic growth that he didn't cause, so this is his economy. He'll try to deflect blame now, but that won't work with independents.
He's setting himself up to be the source of a crisis inside the GOP.
The economy is the only thing keeping Trump's ratings above water. Without the economy, the Repubs will turn on each other.
The establishment will try to reassert control, but the base will be more unhappy than ever.
It's outside the scope of this essay, but a recession will have an interesting impact on our already unhappy allies and our shrinking influence.
I Don't Care About Drumpf. He is a Systemic Symptom, Not
a unique aberration.
Letting this be Drumpf's fault, even as a catalyst, is not smart politics IMO.
Drumpf needs to be tied around Republican's neck as an anvil, and you can't do that if he takes the blame for an expected turn of the business cycle. Making that his responsibility sends one human to the depths and leaves us unable to protect ourselves and halt the cycle by pinning it on many oligarchs and putting the system under the microscope.
Drumpf as whipping boy will remove the possibility for systemic challenge.
“Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat.” ~ Sun Tzu
"letting"?
We're essentially talking about internal GOPper politics here. "Smart politics" isn't really in the conversation. "Smart" anything isn't really in the conversation.
And there's no "letting" to it. Trump advertised and stumped for what's happening, he made it happen, and it's now happening. In large part, it is his fault, just as it's Hillary Clinton's fault that he got to do it at all.
This wouldn't be going on if Bernie had been the Dem nominee, as he'd be the one calling these shots.
"US govt/military = bad. Russian govt/military = bad. Any politician wanting power = bad. Anyone wielding power = bad." --Shahryar
"All power corrupts absolutely!" -- thanatokephaloides
Yea, Letting...
Republicans have been smashingly brilliant on the strategic front.
Tactically it looks stupid, I'll give you that, but strategically, they are ruthless.
And they're willing to flip on a dime to serve that strategy.
They're doing a hell of a lot better than their partners in crime, the Democrats when it comes to strategy. They always get their way. How does that happen?
This crash has been coming on since the refusal to regulate in 08, and it was bipartisan.
Drumpf's policy had little to do with that. I'm actually interested in trade wars rather than FTAs and broken bank bail ins. I think they might cause some friction in the economic profession. We could use some friction there.
The big danger is that if we blame Drumpf as catalyst or reason for the crash not only will we miss that friction, but the policies against corporate free trade will get tattooed as the culprit.
That is not a fair reading of the economic situation, IMO, and it will not serve to point at the Suits, which is step one of smashing the oligarchy.
“Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat.” ~ Sun Tzu
I would have to agree, k9.
It's intellectually dishonest as to suggest that Trump is the author of the US business cycle. That kind of thinking is left to the delusional Dems and their hysteria addiction. As you say, it does not establish the ugly reality of capitalism's cyclic asset-stripping of the middle class, the poor, and select corporate deadwood.
In my view, that's been going on since the technology revolution of the late 70s, caused by bankers and speculators engaged in opportunistic Creative Destruction. Creative destruction occurs when entrepreneurs and technologies actively create market disequilibrium by highlighting new profit opportunities that did not previously exist. Then, the financiers swoop in for a chance to grab these profits and property by killing off or shorting the losers. We've seen that with computer technologies, dotcoms, automated high-speed trading, and now robotics, big data, and early AI. The destruction cycles will continue until capitalism is regulated and people are housed and fed and educated, or until humans go extinct, whichever comes first.
Of course, old-style economic no-nos like killing off the consumer classes combined with massive personal debt, institutional greed, government corruption, and failed regulation doesn't help. But, Trump had nothing to do with any of this. The markets did go up because of corporate buybacks and cheap oil, but the trading mess he is making is his attempt to fix the mess he made for the Neocons when he killed the TPP on his first day in office. The TPP was a geopolitical WMD designed to cripple the rise China and Eurasia. The Iran sanctions are supposed to slam China from behind. India got an exemption; that went over well.
It's all too late now. The US can only do self-harm from this point. I am quite amazed the DC folks seem to be clueless about where they stand. Shrodinger's cat has left the box.
Thank you
for being objective.
dfarrah
Law of Entropy.
Your comment made me think of the Law of Entropy.
The only way our economy grows is by contributing to the entropy of everything around it.
That is kind of freaky, IMO.
Thanks for the comment, Pluto.
“Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat.” ~ Sun Tzu
You do realize
that the recession the writer cites has not happened?
And did you overlook that he noted the inverted yield curve, a typical harbinger of recession? Have you heard about the Fed raising interest rates - yet another action that slows down the economy?
Anti-Trumpers can lay all of this at Trump's feet, just like they refuse to give Trump credit for any positive economic outcomes, but doing so isn't objective or reasonable.
dfarrah
A blade in the back?
Lately I've been wondering how on earth this One Party Government is going to manage to duck the blame when the economy flips upside-down. Normally, the Republicans would be quick to blame the Democrats, but it's not going to stick this time - not at all. Even the usual finger-pointing towards the hated Obama isn't going to work. The Republicans have been happy to wear the laurels, but once they don them they necessarily must wear a crown of thorns when the worm turns.
It never occurred to me that Trump could turn on his own Republicans, but when one considers the hatred shown toward the RINOs by Trump's core supporters (during the presidential primary race, anyway), it shouldn't have escaped me. It does indeed seem that Trump would be shooting himself and his regime in the foot, but who can say what he's thinking. Were he to blame certain of his own party, I would imagine that he'd lump certain Republicans in with the Democrats, thereby making a straw man to rail against. It might just work, especially with his core, and/or those leaning in that direction.
Drumpf Will Become the Universal Scapegoat.
Like snowstorms or hurricanes killing the economy, the personally and socially odious and incompetent Drumpf will become a scapegoat that serves as a sink for populist anger.
His people lashing out could easily be the catalyst for martial law or privacy violations in meat space. I could see the Global War OF Terror being turned on here at home with massive voter support.
I mean they're all traitorous Klansman anyway...
first they came for the Rednecks, but I drive a Camry.
“Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat.” ~ Sun Tzu
Trump's crash tactics
Since I drive a Scion, I must be safe...
I'm considering how Trump and Co. play it...
gjohnsit's comment "Without the economy, the Repubs will turn on each other" is what made me consider that Trump might well use any severe downturn to his benefit. What else could he do? There has to be someone to blame, after all. His core will always bark at the Democrats, but they detest RINO Republicans as much. I think it's a good bet he would go after all but the most right-wing, government-hating Republicans. Will it fly? Dunno.
However, I agree that WE need to make certain that any crash is a millstone hung on the necks of the Capitalists, not simply Trump ... or maybe not Trump at all. Of course, should Trump's recent protectionist moves serve to be the catalyst of a crash (quite possible), then blame may not escape him. The Capitalists most certainly would think nothing of sacrificing Trump to maintain their rule over us.
spellcheck
Spell that with a "k". "Klansman".
"US govt/military = bad. Russian govt/military = bad. Any politician wanting power = bad. Anyone wielding power = bad." --Shahryar
"All power corrupts absolutely!" -- thanatokephaloides
Done with a Capital K. nt
“Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat.” ~ Sun Tzu
Trump ran
against the establishment, similar to what Bernie did. He does not have a lot of loyalty to the repub party much beyond that he needs repubs to pass his agenda.
He was a democrat at one time, too.
dfarrah
I've been thinking that a recession was being intentionally
triggered. As you stated this pattern is clear, but has there ever been one that included a trade war? There just needs to be another economic crisis to complete the hat trick.. oh wait, add in the gutting of the social safety net as well as dismantling social security and Medicaid. Yep. This seems like the next recession is going to be a huge effing doozy. Maybe I should change my sigline to Feed the poor, eat the rich!
Zuckenburg sold our information to every one he could and instead of it burying him and his stupid site he has now become the second richest person in the world! Now that is irony on steroids.
I thought
recessions were deliberately triggered throughout the years, not just now.
dfarrah
Operation Stillpoint
Operation Stillpoint
Anyone want to give an opinion on this? We are seeing in real time as the country is being stripped of its assets with the latest being the republican tax cuts that will only benefit the rich while hurting everyone who is already living on the edge and eventually hollowing out the working class. There are other websites that have covered this so it does seem like there is some validity to the article, but who knows what's true anymore?
I Don't Buy It. It Doesn't Strike Me as Particularly Good for
"business", meaning the Oligarchs.
I guess I could see #BailIN2020 nationalizing banking, but it really is quite a stretch.
I think the Firesale America part is right, I've been saying as much for 15 years. But that's about pilfering the commons, and reducing sovereignty; the subjugating of the State to corporate interests.
Nationalizing banking seems extremely radical to me and ill fitting the strategy I've seen playing out for the last 50 years.
I could be wrong. It could be the Democrats long play, but it would hit the corporate sponsors in the freedoms, and we all know that hitting corporate in the freedoms is off the table.
“Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat.” ~ Sun Tzu
Thanks for looking at the article and for your opinion on it
I thought parts of it were true, but some were out there.
Right on Man. I Really Appreciate Your POV and Trust Your
instincts – I relate to them.
I've been kicking through the DOW and large public companies ownership, and it looks to me like there are usually like 3-5 voting entities that combine to have a controlling interest (or near) in just about all major companies: Vanguard, Blackstone, State Street, BofA, GS, JPMorgan, and some other big hitters always are on the top.
I screen shot the whole DOW. It's pretty insane.
https://stockzoa.com/ticker/aapl/ - just put the symbol in there and take a look for yourself. It kind of terrifies me.
I just don't see them giving up their clout.
“Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat.” ~ Sun Tzu
That definitely makes the price of stock
a currency of it's own, used in
buying the world, (Amazon,Bezos,CIA.)
I never knew that the term "Never Again" only pertained to
those born Jewish
"Antisemite used to be someone who didn't like Jews
now it's someone who Jews don't like"
Heard from Margaret Kimberley
Trump Economy is the best in recent U.S. History
.
This Post couldn't be more wrong, and is just wrong on multiple counts!
_____________
Now, it is true that oil prices have been moving upward (no higher than Bush and Obama years though ...which saw spikes of $4.00+/gallon). But OPEC --- not new Wars, or Trump is responsible for manipulating the price of Oil.
Blaming Trump for that is just ignorant. But Trump understands the problem very well, and has been talking directly with Saudi Arabia about it.
--
I am not worried at all about the Economy under Trump.
Best Economy in recent U.S. History
Trump is ignoring the biggest reason for rising gas price
The sanctions on Iran that has taken over a million gallons of oil off the market a day. Or a week, but either way this is his doing not OPEC's. Plus he is telling our allies that they cannot buy their oil from Iran either even though they did not pull out of the Iran deal. If Trump keeps pushing sanctions on them and now they are threatening to close the Strait of Hormuz. Just the threat of them doing that will cause panic in the markets which will also have an effect on oil prices.
We might have low unemployment, but wages have stagnated when they would be rising with these numbers. Cost of living is rising which has nullified the measly tax cuts people received. The biggest CoL is going health insurance rates because Trump is withholding the insurance company's payments.
Yep. He's doing a heck of job for the economy. This doesn't even mention what the weasly republicans are trying to do. They have already weakened many banking regulations and we know what happened last time that happened don't we?
BTW. Did you see my reply to your last comment on how well Trump is doing? Just wondering.
ETA- the number of people who rely on food stamps is going to go even lower because states are adding work requirements on people even if they are the single caretakers of their families and in places where there are no jobs to be had. Will this too make it seem like Trump's economy is doing great? This same thing will lower the number of people who receive Medicaid in the states that bothered to extend them. Many red states refused to help the people who needed them the most.
@snoopydawg
I don't disagree that the Iran sanctions are destabilizing, but Trump has gotten Saudi to now start increasing Oil production already (as posted above). This should begin to move the prices back down again. I don't think we have a "crisis situation" here. And to be fair there were other problems with the whole Iran deal (The U.S. was making payments to Iran over a billion dollars).
On your other comment, see: https://caucus99percent.com/comment/355772#comment-355772
Thank you for your reply that comment
I guess we will just need to wait and see how his policies work for us as time goes by. However I disagree with you about his foreign policies. He has twice bombed Syria after false flag events and he has started paying the White Helmets, the Al Qaida group that spreads propaganda about chemical weapons attacks. BTW. There are warnings that they are planning another false flag event being planned soon. What happened to him bringing the military out of Syria because we aren't doing regime change there anymore?
As to his wanting to play nice with Russia and North Korea I'm all for it. Anyone who wants to give peace a chance I'll support. But there's still the regime change being planned for Iran and that is why he pulled us out of the Iran deal. If there were something hinky with it then he could have talked about it with our allies and gone from there. But before he pulled the agreement he hired Bolton and then after he put sanctions back on them even though he said they were upholding their end of the agreement. You don't do those things unless you're planning for war. Even you have to see that.
Wait for the Trump - Putin Summit
In Foreign Policy and Worldwide Military Ops, you cannot change everything overnight. Trump has to placate the power of the powerful MIC-CIA to begin with (or else get Assassinated), but he has indeed left Assad and the Syrian government in power (no Invasion, no "regime change" chaos, and no hostile "no fly zone" standoff with Russia) -- and things will get even better and clearer after the upcoming Trump - Putin Summit. It was the Anti-Trump / Impeachment political forces that caused the whole delay in this happening, but it is now happening this month.
Saddle Up for the Trump-Putin Peace Summit.
---
Trump knows where he wants things to go, and for an Economics refresher consider this:
[video:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VZj6t961d2U]
What is up with this homophobic meme?
I first saw this hideous shit on daily kos which didn't surprise me, but to see it here and with 2 rec's is major disappointing!
If, and that is a big effing IF, Trump and Putin were working together to weaken the US then WTF does them being homosexual BFFs have to do with it?
And here I thought you didn't believe in Russia Gate so why post this disgusting photo?
This boils my blood in ways I can not begin to express and trying to do so would just boil it even more. JtC kindly gave us and option to edit our comments if you are so inclined to remove the photo.
I didn't see it as homophobic, snoop
I thought he was doing a switcheroo (homophobic? how?) and using the meme originally meant to be shitty and using it now as a HA! They're going to meet and get along. Maybe I'm wrong. I'll bet Trump's issue with it would be his hair is messed up.
He has been here before
I think it is his favorite Saturday night hobby to come here and stir up the soup in the pot.
https://www.euronews.com/live
You are mostly citing conditions that
pre-dated Trump, some for decades, such as wage stagnation. And cost of living has never not gone up - I see the inflation right before my eyes every time I go grocery shopping, and this has been going on for years. Health insurance rates have been skyrocketing for years, and increases were especially noticeable with Obamacare.
We might have low unemployment, but wages have stagnated when they would be rising with these numbers. Cost of living is rising which has nullified the measly tax cuts people received. The biggest CoL is going health insurance rates because Trump is withholding the insurance company's payments.
Laying all of these issues that were happening well before Trump is intellectually dishonest, to borrow a phrase from another poster.
dfarrah
When Will It Start Trickling Down?
The Economy has been rampaging for years, according to the Suits running and reporting on it. It's the trickling down part that is not happening.
The Unemployment number is bunk. If it were not bunk, wages would be rising. 96% employment in a market economy should mean rising wages.
But the shit never seems to trickle down. It seems that it is easy to legislate some rain barrels that can be used to roll that shit into Oligarch Inc.
I completely disagree with you on the facts on the ground. The facts in the Halls of Power, however, I think you're on point.
“Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat.” ~ Sun Tzu
@k9disc
What part of:
... is not trickling down? (or more accurately: impacting the working class and all people).
Is everything perfect? or instantly "fixed"? Of course not (and it never was perfect to begin with). The important point here is the recent economic trends and the better direction that things are headed. No one would prefer the upheaval of high-unemployment and stagnant growth.
Wages will be better over time for everyone under an Export Economy (Trump), than it would under an Import/Offshore based Economy (Globalist/Establishment/Status-Quo).
trends
The trend has been the same for eight years now.
Nothing has changed in the trend, except for the 1%.
But hey, your boy is fact-free, so we can't expect more from you.
Not True
No. Things were not the same 8 years ago, or even 3 years ago.
I'm not sure how you can even claim that when all the data shows very different numbers today (good), then the awful 1% growth rate, low black employment, and stagnation under Obama (and Bush) ... along with the foolish "Regime Change" tyranny and worldwide ruin and chaos under both of them.
When you see things like consumer spending and confidence at an all-time high -- that means people feel better and are doing better now -- than they did 2-4-6-8 years ago.
Come on now,
what do you think the War Criminal in Chief (same as Obama mind you) is doing in Venezuela, Nicaragua, Yemen, and Iran? Why do you think Trump wants a trillion per year "defense" budget and a new "Space Corps"? What do you think of the republicans plan to cut social security, medicare and other social programs to support that imperialist agenda? The democratic party et all is fucked up but defending Trump is no different than the Obama sycophants still defending him.
That's the kind of stuff Trump supporters won't address.
I've started a list of things that have happened under a Trump administration to show Trump supporters when they start praising their Lord, again, just like the Obama supporters. They, like the Obama supporters, like to cherry pick their talking points and ignore the negatives. Like FS here who has numerous times brought up the bullshit campaign talk from Trump (again, just like Obama) about no regime changes when the evidence presents a completely opposite conclusion. But the partisans stick with the campaign talking points regardless the evidence. The real problem is, like democrats, republican Trump supporters who rail against the democrats and Obama/Clinton, have no credibility because they're supporting the same shit.
I've read some comments on what is happening in Iran right now
from Trump supporters and they are backing the Iranians who are protesting against the water restrictions. Apparently they don't remember that this is how regime change starts off with. The people might have a legitimate reason to protest, but then our NGOs add their little non citizens into the protests to make them more violent and then our country calls the leaders out. This has happened so many times I can't believe that people can't see through it.
I haven't seen anyone saying anything about what the military is doing in Yemen, Syria and the many unknown countries they are in. This selective attention to our foreign policies is mind boggling. If Obama was a war criminal and then Trump continues what he had started then Trump to has to be a war criminal too. People did that when Obama continued Bush's wars.
Mother Fucker! They Are Using Water Rights?
That's an eye catching angle. It's got legs. Conservatives HATE meddlesome government when it comes to water. It will hit liberals hard too.
That could be a very strong drumbeat for war.
“Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat.” ~ Sun Tzu
Exactly, it's willful ignorance and it is exactly the same with
Trump as it was with Bush and Obama, and Clinton, Bush, Reagan and Carter for that matter. A big part of Trump's supporters support comes because Trump rails against democrats and liberals and people they hate, so it's like the "the enemy of my enemy is my friend". Most just can't figure out they ain't their friends.
This is so depressing:
Libya, Syria, Ukraine — Americans of all persuasions think these were a revolution or something, and the leaders they elected must be toppled. Same stupidity with Venezuela and Iran, too. Americans always buy it and never see the pattern. It's almost humorous. No critical thinking whatsoever.
Chump's "economy"
Those books are so cooked they're burnt and charred. "Quick fried to a crackly crunch!"
People who need adult-level hourly wages with no more than a high school education -- the majority of American working adults -- are worse off today than they were when Obama took office.
I only need one fact to prove that beyond question: the fact that despite the supposed "tightening" of the labor markets, wages haven't risen at all, much less the instantaneous meteoric rise that the published "unemployment" figures would cause rational observers to expect.
The reason for this is that we don't have real "full employment". Real full employment means the "U6" (real unemployment) figure is 4% or less, and more or less continuously so. It's not. The current U6 unemployment rate as of June 2018 is 7.80%. source
Again, if you have a better explanation as to why market wage rates are still stagnant rather than instantly skyrocketing across-the-board as your so-called "facts" call for, let's hear it. But please don't insult our intelligence by suggesting that wage growth somehow lags. If everything were as rosy as the figures you quote suggest, the price of all manner of labor would rise immediately and drastically. As I said above, it hasn't done so.
And that single fact is all anyone needs to know about Trumponomics.
"US govt/military = bad. Russian govt/military = bad. Any politician wanting power = bad. Anyone wielding power = bad." --Shahryar
"All power corrupts absolutely!" -- thanatokephaloides
Can you address the issues of the essay?
You have said that the economy is getting better, but what about how the economy looks to be setting up for a recession because of the things that Trump is doing. Do you disagree that these things could happen?
Trump might have made things better for some, but he has and will be signing off on the destructive policies that the republicans are going to try to pass. Those things will bring the economy crashing down, but only effect everyone who isn't rich. Banks and rich people always not only survive the crisis, but then they usually come out way ahead of everyone else. Most economists are saying that the banks are going to fail and then they will need another tax payer bailout. This time though it's going to be a bail in meaning that they get to keep people's money they have in the banks. This will make the crisis go into the stratosphere! It happened in Greece and they still haven't recovered from it.
Issues
I posted that Trump has arranged with Saudi Arabia to significantly increase Oil production, so I really do not believe that there is any crisis situation going on here with Oil. I can buy gas for $2.77/gallon. When Bush was President it was $3.75-$4.00/gallon, and not that much better under Obama at times.
As for Republicans in general, one good thing to consider is that the Election of Trump forced about a more libertarian and Nationalist (rather than Globalist-sellout) remake of the Party. Trump is doing things that the Establishment GOP would never do: oppose NAFTA/TPP/etc., stop War games in the Asian Pacific, oppose "Regime Change" directives, consider Troop withdrawals, support Family Leave, support interstate Health Co-ops breaking the State Monopoly for Health Insurance, support U.S.Infrastructure spending, etc.
Trump has already acted as a Firewall against Establishment GOP/Neocon policies on a variety of issues.. although he has also listened to the wrong people and gone the wrong way on some issues as well. But as Trump gets stronger and stronger, I think he will become more and more Independent and fulfill campaign promises. And if the GOP is transformed and remade around the Trump/Rand Paul/Libertarian ideology that would be a great thing, and it would be a whole new Party, much more similar to the early 1900s (where the Republicans opposed WWI and the predatory Federal Reserve Cartel, and we're the anti-Monopolists) -- and it was Woodrow Wilson that was responsible for: WWI, IncomeTax, predatory Federal Reserve Cartel, "league of nations" (Global government model).
I look what would've happened if Hillary had won (sellout, Global Government, Global Warfare), and I'm thankful that we avoided that disaster.
The more Independent our Country is (economically, untangling UN/NATO/EU alliances, and breaking from Global-Bankster alliances) the stronger and more self-sustaining our Economy will be for all.
Trump is the first President to confront the EU/UN/NATO/G7 and reject them on some level and seek some sort of more balanced, less exploitative rules of engagement. It is this International control over our Country that had hollowed it out, and created all the Think Tanks and the Global Cartel-Oligarchy structure. Our Country was infiltrated many years ago, and we need someone like Trump to be the wrecking ball. We'll see what happens....
.
[video:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z1_L30JXpaY]
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[video:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EOyma_8dFm0]
"We will no longer surrender this Country or its people to the false song of Globalism"
Seriously? Wow!
I have no idea where you are getting this information, but just wow! He is trying to kick millions of people off of their health insurance and his plans for infrastructure is to privatize it which would be disastrous for us. Toll roads from state to state and other things that would only see more of our money being transferred to corporation's pockets. The republicans right now are trying to destroy social security, Medicaid and Medicare which he promised that he wouldn't touch. The tax cuts are permanent for the elites, but will sunset for the little people. He is not going to remake the Republican Party in any sense of the word.
No we haven't avoided the disaster of global warfare! Hello? Yemen? You remember the country where we're helping the Saudis commit genocide? Syria which Trump has bombed twice after two false flag events? Planned regime change in Iran which has already started with the protests happening now? Come on now. You are either unaware of what Trump is doing which detracts from your opinion on how great Trump is doing, or you are willfully turning a blind eye to what he is doing. Please let me know which it is. You are certainly entitled to your opinion, but not to facts not in evidence.
ETA - Afghanistan ringing any bells? The longest war in US history where Trump sent more troops to after he became president and the military told him that all it would take to win the war would be $16,000 more troops after there had been over 100,000 troops there at one time and they didn't win the war then.
@snoopydawg
See: https://caucus99percent.com/comment/356038#comment-356038
Infrastructure
Our infrastructure is crumbling and has been for decades. Things Democrats have tried such as the vastly underfunded Obama infrastructure plan barely made a dent. Privatization is certainly not ideal, but neither is the status quo. Our nations needs to invest trillions into infrastructure and we have to start somewhere.
If you have a better, feasible, implementable, politically supportable plan that solves our infrastructure crisis, I'd love to hear it.
A toll to leave your own property?
They used to say a toll road would go free after the tolls collected paid for the road, but Beltway 8 in Houston is still a toll road after 30 or so years (don't quote me on length of time). Now, they don't bother with the lie. Toll forever. How much will it cost me to pull out of my driveway and go 12 miles to work, or 18 miles to the better grocery store?
We already pay the taxes for this infrastructure. The logical thing to do, if that money falls short, would be to tap into the bloated defense budget, and stop paying Israel to be our wolf in sheep's clothing. I know, pipe dream, but in little people life, if you can't afford the light bill, you drop the cable TV, Starbucks and sushi.
Really? You're going to actually
sit here and defend MORE privatization as the answer? Sorry but for fuck's sake, do you not see that as the end goal of our owners? As Deja states, how much are you willing to pay to pull out of your own driveway? How much MORE are you willing to pay for water? How much are you willing to pay for calling a cop when someone tries to rob your home? Are you going to pay for private security? Privatization is also a Democratic wet dream but hey, never let that thought enter into any discussion of doing what's "feasible" and easily "implemented."
Trump is NOT the answer and he never was the answer any more than he was the entire problem. Buying into his agenda as a "solution" to the problems in this world is naïve at best. And really, it is the same damned incrementalism "Democrats" have been pushing for decades while they hollow this country out from the inside while we all scream and bitch about Trump and "his" policies.
Only a fool lets someone else tell him who his enemy is. Assata Shakur
No.
How the heck did you draw that misbegotten conclusion from my comment?
"Privatization is not ideal
but neither is the status quo?" That sure sounds like saying privatization is OK if it gets the job done? You seem to be saying it is feasible and can be implemented and if that is the case at least we get our infrastructure fixed? So maybe I misunderstood that?
Only a fool lets someone else tell him who his enemy is. Assata Shakur
Experience with privatization
My experience with privatization consists mainly of East Coast turnpikes, which suck, and the Dulles Greenway (link), which is a fantastic road compared to the publicly maintained highways like the Washington Beltway and Virginia's state roads that I drove daily while living in Virginia.
So it is feasible although not desirable. I'm still waiting to hear how you plan to get the local, state and Federal governments funding quality roads like the Greenway. If your plan is feasible, I'll support it 1,000%. Otherwise, all you're doing is complaining without offering any solutions.
How about doing it the same way it was done before?
That seemed to have worked quite well then, but if you think that privatization is the way to go then you haven't paid attention to how much corruption there is when things are privatized.
Take Chicago for just one example. They sold their toll roads to the Saudis for basically pennies on the dollar and they immediately raised prices. Chicago is now missing out on the money for things that the tolls paid for.
Next thing they did was let one of the big banks take over the parking system and that has caused nothing but problems for the people who live there. Have you ever tried dealing with the banks when they screwed up your accounts? It takes lots of work and time to get them to refund ones money. If they actually decide to do it that is.
But...
What's your solution? Take money from the defense budget? Raise taxes? Ride unicorns into the sunset?
Well, YEAH.
That's what we've been saying all along.
This shit is bananas.
YEAH...
and with a Democratic President, House AND Senate from 2009-2011, we got $40 billion a year in infrastructure spending plus Obamacare plus an INCREASE in defense spending. So tell me more about your plan...
Globalism = “Defending the EU rather than one’s own country”
https://consortiumnews.com/2018/06/23/defending-the-eu-rather-than-ones-...
Why wouldn’t European voters turn to the populist, nationalist Right, if they see the established elite giving away the store to a neoliberal Brussels bureaucracy that answers to no one and feels loyalty to no one.
Just can't see it
The US companies have dismantled factories for 20 years and shipped the machinery off shore. I can't see them building new, or refurbishing abandoned property without massive subsidies from taxpayers. Even then they'll force states to come up with incentives to locate their factories there. The one rule is shareholders get theirs over everything. They'll just pass on the 25% tariff on to us (what can we do). Once this storm passes and the tariffs are dropped, US companies will cut their prices 5% and pocket the other 20%, because who can pass up that opportunity for profit.
The Part Where Supply and Demand Applies to the Labor
market?
There is NO WAY the numbers are as quoted. 96% employment means that only 4 workers out of 100 are available for work. If that were the case, wages should be bumping up.
But they are not. In fact, the oligarchs are going all in on suggesting that the economic downturn will be blamed on wage increases.
I think all of our economic numbers are fudged to fit the models and to promote policy and mask the impact of policies.
I don't buy bankers any more than I buy corporate.
And if you go and look at the backbone of the economy, the DOW (lol), you'll find the value in keeping these numbers fudged. Take a look at who the top 5-10 owners are of the DOW companies. It is a complete ponzi scheme. A ponzi scheme that requires endless propaganda, standing armies involved in hot war, and militarized police.
I'm afraid we see things completely differently, and that's a bummer. We really used to be on the same page.
“Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat.” ~ Sun Tzu
The numbers are relative
If you discount the methodology behind numbers ok, but the numbers remain relative to each other. So improved numbers does mean that things are better than for the years before. And when all the economic data shows improvement across the board and trend upward, then we are certainly not entering "a recession".
Wages will be better over time for everyone under an Export Economy (Trump), than it would under an Import/Offshore exploitation-based Economy (Globalist/Establishment/Status-Quo). The days of America bending over and selling out over to global interests may be ending. I want to see that happen and not be obstructed by the anti-Trump forces and noise. If we can get that far I think the overall economic improvement will be not be in doubt to 95% of people.
@k9disc Do you really believe
Do you really believe the numbers coming out of the Trump administration? I certainly don't. They have been cheating and lying about everything, why won't they do the same with the economic data.
It's simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves that we've been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back. Carl Sagan
The unemployment numbers are bunk
The gov cooks the books on everything they do, or tell us. See the pentagons, Federal Reservers, or Ft. Knox's audit.
My understanding is that after x amount of time being unemployed you are no longer considered looking for work. So each year millions of out of work people are removed from the unemployed count because of the duration they have been out of work. This artificially keeps the numbers far lower than they are. They are considered 'not looking'. Which is false. They are removed soley to deceive the public about how bad the situation is. It is bad.
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
Look deep into nature, and then you will understand everything better.
both - Albert Einstein
U1 versus U6
spelling corrected
What you want is the real unemployment rate, known as U6. What you're describing is the seriously cooked U1 statistic, which is obtained exactly as you describe.
Real full employment would have two indicators: U6 under 5% (it's now just a smidgen short of 8%) and across-the-board rise in wages. We have neither.
"US govt/military = bad. Russian govt/military = bad. Any politician wanting power = bad. Anyone wielding power = bad." --Shahryar
"All power corrupts absolutely!" -- thanatokephaloides
just asking - are day laborers who are
'employed' by corporations like Altres counted as employed or not?
If a person is placed by Altres to a company for day labor work and the company likes the worker and wants to hire him/her as their own employee, they have to buy that worker out from Altres for 5000 dollars. So, it rarely happens.
Now is an Altres placed worker employed or not in the statistics? The real employees of Altres are their staff. So, what are those workers Atres offers to place for day labor work for other companies?
https://www.euronews.com/live
and if they would be counted as employed
please note that the hourly rates they make as an Altres placed day worker are much lower than the worker would get if they were hired by the companies directly. Altres keeps I think around 15 percent of the real hourly rate to themselves.
So much for living wages for day laborers. Well, it is just amusing to follow the discussions here. I would say the amount of misleading manipulative bullshit some are promoting stinks to heaven. Makes me want to leave.
https://www.euronews.com/live
temp staffing is also a waste of money
It gets worse than that.
When I was working tempgig, my labor was costing the customer about $35 an hour of which I grossed $15. So the staffing company was pocketing more than half. And the few direct hires doing what I did made around $20 - $25.
No doubt!
"US govt/military = bad. Russian govt/military = bad. Any politician wanting power = bad. Anyone wielding power = bad." --Shahryar
"All power corrupts absolutely!" -- thanatokephaloides
temp workers
If they're on a payroll on the day the snapshot is taken, they're employed.
I myself worked as an "employee" of Altres-like firms. 90-day temp gigs -- for 11 straight years.
"US govt/military = bad. Russian govt/military = bad. Any politician wanting power = bad. Anyone wielding power = bad." --Shahryar
"All power corrupts absolutely!" -- thanatokephaloides
wow, at least you worked in fields
that required education and skills. Now most day laborers I heard of and my son experienced since many, many years do landscaping and constructions work. Manual labor. Many of those are quite 'kaput', ie unreliable or just not willing any more to work at all for those wages. Those who are working well, sometimes then are hired directly. My son was twice taken over and hired directly by the employers and worked with them over a year, but the companies closed down and went out of business. So there is even the thought process of what is better, always get another day worker job when you need one and stay with something like Altres or risking to get hired directly, but being then lost when the companies go down. Lots of them went belly up in HI. You can get so scared to have nothing at all that you rather stay with Altres than being hired and then let go when the companies go out of business.
Whatever. Great life being a farmer with land. But the land is bought up by Tech CEOs and their ilk. You know they bring great jobs (waitress and landscaping jobs), high land and real estate prices and a destruction of Hawaiian culture at its best. Every fucking area looks the same. One stupid development housing clusters after the other.
Sorry for ranting. I am just mad to have seen it.
https://www.euronews.com/live
Less people getting food stamps
You think that might have something to do with T rump and the repugs letting states set more stringent guidelines to qualify. What a great fucking economy, We now have more children,elderly and disabled going to bed hungry than we did 8 yrs ago.
Wow. An actual Trump fan
Thanks for sharing. It's always good to see what sorts of complete BS propaganda that is coming out of the extreme right-wing.
Please come back and let us know how it's all the fault of the Democrats when this economy blows up
@gjohnsit
The B.S. here is the fake anti-Trump "Russia collusion" hype, and the unsafe "open borders", corrupt "free trade", low-wage/import-economy global government model that the Establishment has been promoting for years.
The Economy has already been blown up many times over and over.
Trump may actually stop the Global exploitation of our Country, and get the U.S. Economy under better control..
It looks like he is beginning to do that -- which is making all the rabid Anti-Trump/pro-Establishment types ... actually root for a Recession ... to punish Trump.
But that of course only hurts yourselves...
Sorry to have to tell you this
but no one here is buying into the fake Russian crap. Apparently you must have missed the numerous essays and comments on that.
Nor do people want to see open borders. But what they do want is for the country to stop destabilizing immigrants' countries so that they don't have to flee from them. Trump is still involved in the actions that are causing people to flee. In fact not too long ago he wanted to do regime change in Venezuela. Wasn't that part of his election platform? To stop doing regime change in countries just because of how they are governed? This is why so many people voted for him over Hillary because his idea of putting America first.
I can't speak to the trade wars though because I don't understand the tariff system, but from what I've read is that the tariffs are hurting people in states where most people voted for Trump.
I don't mean to be trolling your comments, it's just that I disagree with how you are seeing the things Trump is doing.
Interesting
I'm surprised to say that I agree with you on all of these points.
So I must apologize for writing you off so quickly.
Here's where we part ways.
Trump is not only not cutting back on the exploitation of the American worker, he's doubling down on it.
I personally don't care if the person I'm being exploited by is American or not.
Relative Like a Basket of Goods?
Or relative like a gig to a job?
The numbers have been being cooked for decades. I don't believe them at all, even relatively speaking.
“Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat.” ~ Sun Tzu
I remember DailyKos Democrats trying to sell me on “chained CPI”
Cooked economic statistics (and specious “expert” arguments excusing them) have been a fixture in Washington since at least the late 1970s — they can hardly be blamed on Trump.
They think that pulling out of the TPP was a bad idea
This is after their idol said that she would not recommend it "as it was written." I can believe that they tried to sell you on chained CPI after they embraced the ACA after they had wanted single payer. The pretzelization that their brains go through to believe that the intelligence agencies who have a history of lying to them are now their BFFs and are going to save the country from Trump and the republicans who are all committing treason because they have sold out to Putin.
But they will blame him
and that is just a reality. Mr. Badbeavior gets what he deserves for his bad behavior. Blame. Apparently we have to accept now manipulative measures that defend bad behavior? Why?
https://www.euronews.com/live
Same as it ever was
I take your meaning of "The B.S. here is the fake anti-Trump 'Russia collusion' hype..." not to mean here at c99. Rather I think you are responding to gjohnsit's comment of "It's always good to see what sorts of complete BS propaganda that is coming out of the extreme right-wing." In other words, you are saying the (listed) BS belongs to the Democratic Party. I would agree with you. FS, you've been here at c99 long enough to know that the crock of poop that is Russia! Russia! Russia! doesn't fly well here, so I'm sure that's what you meant.
The numbers and/or statistics you've stated re Trump's economic performance are also something I actually believe. That is, those are indeed the numbers I've seen put out by the various Federal agencies who monitor such things. My issue would be that those numbers are no more true with Donald Trump and his One Party Government than they were with Obama. You are right that they are able to be compared though; I don't believe any of the methods have been changed in any meaningful way since Obama prowled the Oval Office.
I do remember the howls of disgust from our friends on the right when the metrics were changed under Obama for such things as CPI, etc. The right was correct to howl at them at the time, as they were meant to cook the results in order to make that administration look good. Now, the shoe is on the other foot. The same "book cooking" stats that the right decried under Obama (and again, they were correct to complain) are being used to shore up Trump's numbers. The metrics were bogus under Obama and still are bogus. I think you'll find that most here at c99 understand that.
The reported employment/unemployment numbers are just as bogus under Trump as they were under Obama - or for that matter President Bush or his son. Hell, as I recall, it was the JFK administration that started screwing with those numbers. It's an old game. But, yes, it's true that Trump didn't make up those rules. Probably to the chagrin of some of those who dreamt up such shenanigans, those statistics are now making Mr. Trump look good.
The proof is in the pudding re the unemployment numbers though. An impossible thing is happening. As mentioned by others, if we are near 100% unemployment, pay should be skyrocketing. It is not. Not at all. Something is quite wrong. The numbers are a lie ... and it didn't start under Trump.
Same shit. Different President.
He sounds just like Obama: cherry picking distorted, non-contextual economic data and pie-in-the-sky 'projections' to promote a rosy scenario that simply doesn't exist for anyone but the owners.
Sound familiar?
So, I'll ask you similar questions I asked the Obamabots back in the day:
How many of those jobs you claimed Trump created actually include a living wage and benefits to support a family?
How many 'college-age/young professionals' (whatever that means) can actually afford to pay back their student loans?
What idiot economist projects 4% GDP when most think we're closing in on the next recession?
There's a sucker born every minute.
The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?
many of the suckers are reborn ... nt
https://www.euronews.com/live
reborn
So that's where all those "born-again" types are coming from!
"US govt/military = bad. Russian govt/military = bad. Any politician wanting power = bad. Anyone wielding power = bad." --Shahryar
"All power corrupts absolutely!" -- thanatokephaloides
WTF
you can't be serious, but that's another point. Sheesh. Where have all the brain cells gone, long time passing.
question everything
Everyone is employed at mostly low-wage jobs
Increased cost of living coinciding with low wages. Great economy.
You haven't factored in environmental destruction and climate change and how that will effect the economy. Damage from EPA deregulation; floods, drought, wildfires, smog, high velocity storms: stronger hurricanes and tornadoes, rising sea levels. Not good for the economy.
To thine own self be true.
Amen - you need to have lived with those
low wages to get it.
https://www.euronews.com/live
At some point it's all coming to a head
The huge deficits from Trump's tax scam, Trump's trade war, Trump's deregulation, the incompetence of everybody whom trump has hired to run our government and oil prices too. On the other hand this stuff takes years to manifest itself. It's just like with Dubya. His financial crash came at the end of his term, right before Obama took over, but it was the culmination of stupid tax polices and deregulation and crooked bankers who took advantage of Bill Clinton's deregulation. It would really suck if Trump's depression came half-way into Bernie's term.
Beware the bullshit factories.
It's like those preachers
saying on a certain date, at a certain hour the savior will appear. Trumps lavish praise of himself will backfire when the shit hits the fan. He's got no advisers that are competent, and he's promised too much.
What will the tariffs do? Russian/EU example.
I was looking at the tariffs list from the Chinese and Mexican government. I found Trump's list for China China.
I noticed apples on the list of items which China and Mexico will impose tariffs on. Mexico is 10% of Washington states apple exports. So apple growers will be hurt.
But unlike what happened to EU agricultural products when Putin put a total ban on EU imports, both the EU and Russian governments stepped in to help lessen the shock. EU poured in I believe tens of millions of Euros. And Russia started aiding farmers to take up the loss of food stuffs and that seems to have gone so well I have read reports that farmers do not want the import ban to stop.
Trump looks to be doing none of that which will really put a stink into effected industries making matters worse if oil prices increase.
I think China and the EU do not play fair, but I am not getting the stratergy here by Trump. If anything at least, Trump should go on a massive "buy American" campaign in effected areas like "make more apple pies at home".
But in terms of a recession, seems off hand tariffs at least short term will make it worse.
My understanding is there's never been a time in history
When trade wars between 2 countries results in a better economy for both countries. I think they've alway helped lead to depressions. It's completely hypocritical of "free-market" Trump. A tariff is a tax on goods. It's crippling to markets and neither country usually capitulates. I think the Great Depression was partly encouraged by protectionism. Now we got the World against the US. How is that supposed to end good for the US?
Beware the bullshit factories.
The collapse of capitalism
It's the system not the person, and it is failing as Richard and Chris discuss...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=60FrsWm9OAc (27 min)
Their conversation answers directly many of free society's points and suggests (as does gjohn) that T-rump is accelerating the problem.
Come now deregulating the banks will improve the economy?
Working for $10/hour at wal-mart 28 hours/week w/ no bene's = employment?
Not the world I want to see. The trumpeteers are drinking the psyop Qanon punch. I suspect that is the drink of choice for the user free society.
“Until justice rolls down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream.”
Yield Curve Inversion questions
I read the linked article about the yield curve. It states the Fed Reserve sets short-term interest rates. What I didn't read was who sets the long-term interest rates, which are not rising high enough, fast enough to keep up with the short-term, thereby threatening an inversion and then a recession. Who sets them?
Is the rate set by "central banks" buying up long-term treasury bonds, meaning the market sets the rate? What's a central bank? Just trying to understand this.
From the linked NYT article:
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