So here's a theory: they're doing this, raising interest rates and such, because they want to plow all of that money they were gifted from Congress into real estate, and the real estate prices are too high at this time:
The stock market just had its best month is almost two years. Now we all know that the stock market hasn't reflected the real economy for many years, but what's going on now is nothing short of "bad news is good news".
A couple of articles showed up in this morning's headlines regarding the government's efforts
to downplay recession fears. Because politics.
A traditional definition of economic recession:
Two straight quarters of economic contraction is typically viewed as a recession.
The GDP report is scheduled for release on Thursday and, following first-quarter contraction at an annual rate of 1.6%, the latest data may confirm that the economy is shrinking.
Just a few months ago it appeared that COVID and vaccine mandates were going to be the biggest issues for the November 2022 elections.
It now appears that this perspective will seem quaint.
Just how bad will it get?
Symbolically, this is a good indication.
Since the 2008 crash the economy has been propped up with artificially ultra-low interest rates.
There is no doubt that the economy is slowing.
The leading economic index fell in December, marking the fourth decline in five months.
By most guesses there is a 50% chance of a nationwide recession next year.
However, the chances of a recession in politically important swing states in the Rust Belt is much higher.
The next recession won't be like the last recession.
Just like the old saying about generals prepare to fight the last war, this is why most people will be caught off-guard.
The last recession originated in the subprime housing market in the United States. The next recession will likely not originate in the United States at all.
According to the Fed’s recession probability model, the odds of a recession in the next 12 months are the same now as they were in July 2007. That was when the credit markets first seized up, leading to the 2008 Great Recession five months later.
