By most guesses there is a 50% chance of a nationwide recession next year.
However, the chances of a recession in politically important swing states in the Rust Belt is much higher.

The next recession won't be like the last recession.
Just like the old saying about generals prepare to fight the last war, this is why most people will be caught off-guard.
The last recession originated in the subprime housing market in the United States. The next recession will likely not originate in the United States at all.

According to the Fed’s recession probability model, the odds of a recession in the next 12 months are the same now as they were in July 2007. That was when the credit markets first seized up, leading to the 2008 Great Recession five months later.

There is a chance that the recession won't wait until next year to hit, but there is almost no chance that we won't be in a recession in 2020. A whole list of economic indicators are flashing red, starting with the most accurate recession forecaster of all - the yield curve.

People that get too involved in the Mueller Report and the latest polls often forget that the most important political indicator is the economy.
And the economy is due for a recession.

Since the early 1970's there's been a consistent, measurable pattern.

By working class, I mean roughly the bottom 80%. By recession, I mean things are getting worse.
There is no official, agreed upon statistic for my claim. So I can't prove beyond a doubt that the working class is in recession.

Deutsche Bank released a study that lays it out in no uncertain terms: we have almost no chance of escaping a recession in the next 12 months.

Italy's banks are teetering.

There is a recession coming.
This isn't a controversial statement, because unless you believe that we've solved the problem of the business cycle in capitalism then another recession is inevitable.