There is a recession coming.
This isn't a controversial statement, because unless you believe that we've solved the problem of the business cycle in capitalism then another recession is inevitable.

A recession will happen sooner rather than later.
This also isn't very controversial because we've already had the third longest economic expansion in American history, so unless you believe that this time is different then history tells us that we are approaching the end of the expansion.

The question is 'when', not 'if'.
There are many ways to measure the probability of a recession in the coming year. Citicorp estimated a 65% chance of recession this year, but most other economists estimate the chances to be much, much lower.
Either way you slice it, economists can't be trusted. Most of them were denying the chances of a recession in 2008, months after the recession had already started.

As you can see, even in the third quarter of 2008, the best models we have missed the big recession entirely.
Economists didn’t just fail to see that monster recession; they routinely fail to see economic events coming.

While that is discouraging, it doesn't mean that there aren't useful and easily accessible items that we can use to see a recession coming. It's more of a case of giving it weight or not.
For instance, corporate earnings are a pretty good indicator. Less earnings generally mean less employment and investment. So how are corporate earnings doing?

The report also showed that corporate profits dropped in 2015 by the most in seven years.
Friday’s report also offered a first look at corporate profits for the period. Pre-tax earnings declined 7.8 percent, the most since the first quarter of 2011, after a 1.6 percent decrease in the previous three months.
Profits in the U.S. dropped 3.1 percent in 2015, the most since 2008. Earnings are being weighed down by weak productivity, rising labor costs and the plunge in energy prices.
“If profits remain depressed, the prospects for capex and hiring will come under greater pressure,” Sam Bullard, a senior economist at Wells Fargo Securities LLC in Charlotte, North Carolina, wrote in a research note.
Corporate outlays for equipment declined at a 2.1 percent annualized pace, subtracting 0.12 percentage point, the Commerce Department said.

So that obviously sounds bad, but is it bad? Yes, it is bad.

history shows that when profits fall, the economy often follows them downwards. An earnings hit of the size that JPMorgan says is taking place has led to a recession within three years about 90 percent of the time.

And because corporate earnings have deteriorated so much, corporations have gone to great lengths to mask the bad news.
However, no matter how much book juggling they do, when the company is broke, it is broke.

Standard & Poor's, via a report by S&P Capital IQ, just warned about US corporate borrowers' average credit rating, which at "BB," and thus in junk territory, hit a record low, even "below the average we recorded in the aftermath of the 2008-2009 credit crisis."
The one-year average default rate for US companies with a credit rating of B- is 9.8%, according to Standard & Poor's. That's a 1-in-10 chance that the company will default over the next 12 months. Companies getting downgraded deep into junk and issuing more low-grade bonds are precursors to soaring defaults.

A deterioration in the credit markets for marginal corporate borrowers has traditionally been one of the best predictors for the economy. Which is bad news.

It isn't just junk bonds. The collateralized loan obligation market has completely frozen up.

Once corporate income starts to fall across industries, "it’s rarely temporary".

The next thing to ask is "why are corporate earnings dropping so much?"
That can be answered in just two charts.

Sales are going down, and they can't unload what they are producing. Traditionally that means production cutbacks, which to workers means "layoffs".

So why can't they sell the product?
I refer that question to this chart.

Now some will dismiss all this and point to the stock market as the great historical predictor. I would challenge that assertion in a normal market, but this is far from being a normal market.
Is the stock market going up because regular people are buying stocks? No. Regular people are selling stocks. A lot of stocks.

Then who is buying stocks? Companies are buying their own stocks, and going into debt to do so.

“Anytime when you’re relying solely on one thing to happen to keep the market going is a dangerous situation,” said Andrew Hopkins, director of equity research at Wilmington Trust Co., which oversees about $70 billion. “Over time, you come to the realization, ‘Look, these companies can’t grow. Borrowing money to buy back stocks is going to come to an end.”’

So are stock buybacks a good investment? No. Stock buybacks are not a good investment

The companies losing money on these bets are down a collective $126 billion over the past three years, a decline of 15 percent.
Many corporations would have been better off investing that cash in an index fund instead of their own stock. The overall market rose 39 percent over the same period.

No matter how you cut it, it appears that corporate health is deteriorating and that layoffs are inevitable unless things turn around immediately.
When does the recession hit? We may might already be in it. Or it may hit soon. Or it may wait until next year to hit.
But it is very unlikely that the recession can be pushed out past 2017.
If I was to make a guess, I would say that the recession hits this year, but they don't declare it until we are past the election.