Recession and the global economy
The next recession won't be like the last recession.
Just like the old saying about generals prepare to fight the last war, this is why most people will be caught off-guard.
The last recession originated in the subprime housing market in the United States. The next recession will likely not originate in the United States at all.
Five big economies are at risk of recession. It won't take much to push them over the edge.
The British economy shrunk in the second quarter, and growth flat lined in Italy. Data published Wednesday show Germany's economy, the world's fourth largest, contracted in the three months to June.
"The bottom line is that the German economy is teetering on the edge of recession," said Andrew Kenningham, chief Europe economist at Capital Economics.
Mexico just dodged a recession— usually defined as two consecutive quarters of contraction — and its economy is expected to remain weak this year. And data suggest that Brazil slipped into recession in the second quarter.
Germany, Britain, Italy, Brazil and Mexico each rank among the world's largest 20 economies. Singapore and Hong Kong, which are smaller but still serve as vital hubs for finance and trade, are also suffering.
So what's that got to do with the U.S. economy? A lot.
Notice the collapse in export orders.
That alone has pitched the U.S. manufacturing sector into recession.
U.S. manufacturing activity contracted for the first time in three years in August, with new orders and hiring declining as trade tensions weighed on business confidence, which could renew fears of a sharp economic slowdown.
Because there are so many geopolitical factors, plus an unprecedented global bond bubble, it's extremely difficult to predict how this is going to play out.
The only things I can say for certain is a) it's coming, and b) it'll be different.