Possibly the most important thing to happen today
Since the 2008 crash the economy has been propped up with artificially ultra-low interest rates.
The financially regulators were unable to stop Wall Street criminality because they were owned by the big banks. Congress and the Presidency were unable to implement (or even consider) the badly needed reforms the economy requires because they were owned by the big banks.
So it all got papered over with cheap money, which propped up asset prices (specifically stocks, bonds, and real estate. aka things that rich people owned). Every time there was even a hint of danger to the markets, the Fed cut interest rates.
That flood of cheap money never made it down to the working class, but it did wonders for Wall Street.
Today that 12-year long con ended.
It was the first emergency rate cut coming in between scheduled meetings since the financial crisis, as well as the largest.
There is also the longstanding question of how effective monetary stimulus, and even some forms of fiscal stimulus, can be in the face of what is likely to be a “supply shock” — the type of economic hit caused by the absence of goods and services as the virus forces factory shutdowns and curtails transportation and travel. Monetary and fiscal stimulus is typically aimed at mitigating demand shocks, which are sharp cutbacks in spending by households, businesses or governments.
To the extent that policy makers can respond to the potential for an eventual demand shock, pressure will likely mount on politicians to provide a fiscal boost, potentially in the form of temporary tax cuts and other measures. That is even more the case outside the U.S., where major central banks, including the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan, have all but exhausted room for additional monetary easing, analysts said.
Another tax cut for the wealthy, really? We are on track to record the first $1 trillion deficit since 2012, and this is before a recession hits. And you want yet another tax cut for the rich?
Because let's face it, the rich are the only people Congress gives tax cuts, and “Only the little people pay taxes.”
Plus Trump has already stopped enforcing corporate regulations at an enormous cost to public safety.
So since relief for the working class is outside of the realm of possibility, what possible economic stimulus is left?
Totally serious: That the Federal Reserve is explicitly stating their job is to support the asset markets shows how unmoored to reality they have become. No price discovery? No fear of losing all credibility? No problem. That ship has sailed anyway. You guys are feckless.
— Dave Collum (@DavidBCollum) March 3, 2020
President Trump knows real estate, so interest rates can never be low enough.
"The Federal Reserve is cutting but must further ease and, most importantly, come into line with other countries/competitors. We are not playing on a level field. Not fair to USA. It is finally time for the Federal Reserve to LEAD. More easing and cutting!" tweeted Trump, who has long criticized the U.S. central bank and urged lower rates.
One thing Trump does not understand, besides empathy and personal sacrifice, is macroeconomics. Yes, interest rates can be too low.
A key indicator of the economy's growth hit a historic low on Tuesday, as the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield fell below 1%.The yield fell to 0.993% as investors bought up safe-haven investments like Treasurys on fears the spreading coronavirus could slow the U.S. economy
Interest rates are already at all-time lows. So there is only so much more the Fed can cut.
Well, the Fed can go negative, right? It just so happens that Sweden, which went negative in 2014, raised interest rates back to zero today, while admitting that NIRP has been a failure.
The answer is that Sweden’s central bank has finally acknowledged what we were writing from the very beginning of the NIRP, i.e., that the costs of this policy outweigh the benefits, euphemistically speaking. Indeed, Riksbank admitted itself that concerns about the side-effects of the negative interest rates on the economy contributed to its decision. As we read in the minutes from the December meeting,a long period of negative interest rates may have negative side effects on the economy, as the draft Monetary Policy Report commendably describes. This is a parameter that we should take into account.
It's looking more and more likely that the markets are going to dump by this spring/summer. At which time the entire political environment is going to change.
And the Fed won't be able to stop it this time.
We've already seen the fastest stock market plunge in history. Faster than 2008. Faster than 1929.
Comments
They may not want to stop it?
tRump declares martial law and it's all over.
The stock markit was always built on sand especially since the 87 crash when the PPT came in to save it.
https://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/
PSA: My house lies next to train tracks in Chicago's northern suburb, on an average day at you have between 20-30 freight trains roll by, today for the first time I can remember not a one has passed by.
I never knew that the term "Never Again" only pertained to
those born Jewish
"Antisemite used to be someone who didn't like Jews
now it's someone who Jews don't like"
Heard from Margaret Kimberley
If Bernie gets the nomination
then the stock market will have another excuse to crash.
So even if the coronavirus flames out, the danger of a crash doesn't end.
And then there is the fact that Turkey just declared war on Syria, which is backed by Iran and Russia.
When the real reason for it crashing is that it is in a bubble.
Bernie wins, stock market loses
It's like a Pavlov experiment.
Investors are being trained to vote with
their wallets. All in cahoots.
Who's calling the shots?
Sheesh
That's not the problem
The problems are:
a) your $60K or so in your 401k doesn't make you an "investor"
b) putting regulations/reforms on a parasitical financial industry are good for the whole economy, but Wall Street is too short-sighted to see that
No this day was bound to come
Regardless, smoke and mirrors by the Fed and large deficit fueled by tax cuts and excessive spending on the military is always a recipe for disaster.
"You can't just leave those who created the problem in charge of the solution."---Tyree Scott
Bubble!
It's just timed to clear out those middle/working class 401k's. Pop that bubble and wipe the suckers out. All part of the plan.
So the DOW is projected
to rise by 700 points on Biden's win. Please help me understand - will this be a temporary bump? If we're in a bubble that is bursting, won't it keep tumbling?
"The “jumpers” reminded us that one day we will all face only one choice and that is how we will die, not how we will live." Chris Hedges on 9/11
It probably will be as durable as Biden’s bump.
The stock market will do what it’s going to do, regardless. With Fed interest rates approaching zero and China, our saviors after 2008, in no position to bail us out again, we are in uncharted territory. Investors hate uncertainty, but that’s all we have from here to the horizon. A downturn in Bernie’s prospect of victory may bring smiles to Wall Street, but it doesn’t change the fundamentals of our predicament.
“ …and when we destroy nature, we diminish our capacity to sense the divine,and understand who God is, and what our own potential is and duties are as human beings.- RFK jr. 8/26/2024
That’s what I needed to know
, it helps me know how to proceed ~ many thanks!
"The “jumpers” reminded us that one day we will all face only one choice and that is how we will die, not how we will live." Chris Hedges on 9/11
That is scary.
Its quite eerie for the moment
EDIT:emoji problemo.....sigh
I never knew that the term "Never Again" only pertained to
those born Jewish
"Antisemite used to be someone who didn't like Jews
now it's someone who Jews don't like"
Heard from Margaret Kimberley
Heh!
On Monday I put on a short position (SPXU) an ETF for the historic up move that I saw as a classic dead cat bounce. I started putting it on Monday when the DOW was up 700 Monday and doubled down as it went higher to almost up 1200 points. I was nervous as Tuesday morning opened since I was already down 4 grand. Then things were going ok until in SECONDS the Feral Reserve lowered rates and I puked doubled that amount. Fortunately I didn't panic for half and hour when the market started to sell off again. However I was so spooked that I got out at a profit of a few hundred and change later in the day. Needless to say I have a high risk tolerance and no sense.
Don't ask me where we are going tomorrow up or down.
I do think we're not done going down. We have been setting up for another 2008 historic short for at least a year. I'm in 100 percent cash over night.
LOL
As long as you can admit that then you are miles ahead of most people.
I'm sitting on a lot of cash because I flat out don't know how to play a rigged bubble market.
@gjohnsit It's hard to rig the
USO and XLE have already taken big hits and may go down more depending on what happens to leading economies.
Buying these oil ETF's doesn't really help the Oil companies. They are just an entry on somebodies server. Exxon and Chevron doesn't get any of the money. But I do understand the argument for not investing in Oil companies.
I have spent a lot of studying oil because I see it as central to the theories of collapse since basically it runs everything. See Richard Heinberg, Art Berman, Kurt Cobb, Nafeez Ahmed. etc.
https://www.resilience.org/stories/2020-03-03/covid-19-the-black-swan-is...
https://medium.com/insurge-intelligence/coronavirus-synchronous-failure-...
I have no iedea what you just said
@Snode Its a phase from the
I know sick, but possible true.
Must be something special with cats.
When Wall Sreet fuckers jump from their ivory towers they just hit the ground with a satisfying "splat".
Not really
They bounce just like a cat too.
Good advice, if you can stash some cash under your mattress, do so. Before the run on the banks.
Greenbacks n' facemasks. Doomed to short supply.
IMHO
Neither Russia nor China is our enemy.
Neither Iran nor Venezuela are threatening America.
Cuba is a dead horse, stop beating it.
Ditto
I agree that having some cash in the house is a very good idea.
Dude!
If you want that kind of rush, wouldn’t it be cheaper to buy an epi pen?
We can’t save the world by playing by the rules, because the rules have to be changed.
- Greta Thunberg
@Hawkfish Got one
I take Praulent for cholesterol control 2x month.
There was some benefit for the working class.
Assuming borrowers had a decent credit rating, many lenders were offering 0% interest for 12 or 18 months on personal loans and credit cards as well as up to 60 months for auto loans. Mortgage rates also dropped and many homeowners were able to refinance and gain extra monthly cashflow.
Problem is
most didn't use the extra to pay down ballances.
Most just bought more shit. It's the american way to keep up with everybody they're not like.
Appearances are everything.
Regardless of the path in life I chose, I realize it's always forward, never straight.
Veblen had this covered in 1899
Veblen then proceeds to explain the concept of being well-dressed but ill-clad. The night I first read this idea I nearly exploded with laughter. I had spent the evening driving a Checker Cab in falling snow. One ride was a short hop between some expensive down-town hotel and Orchestra Hall. The women of the party had on cute little cocktail dresses, high heels, shoulders wrapped with some dead-animal wrap (probably farm-raised mink). The cab stand for the hotel was in an underground parking garage. There was no clue during pick-up just how lousy the weather had become (January Minneapolis). Giggle Giggle.
Orchestral Hall was another matter. The drop-off had a roof but was otherwise exposed to the elements. This large concert hall deflected enormous amounts of sixth-story winds to ground level where it would swirl around entrances. Even a 12' sprint under these circumstance was dangerous—especially running in heels on slippery sidewalks. These women were literally willing to risk life and limb to look good. The way they were dressed, they wouldn't have lasted 10 minutes exposed to those elements. Well-dressed but ill-clad indeed.
Thank you!
The Theory of the Leisure Class is now on my to do list. What little I've read piques me
Thanks again.
Regardless of the path in life I chose, I realize it's always forward, never straight.
Best book I ever read
@edg Although good for
We are likely going to negative interest rates (NIRP) like much of Europe and Japan.
I feel ill
knowing there's nothing I can do if the shit hits the fan.
C99, my refuge from an insane world. #ForceTheVote
Try
turning the fan off.
You'll be fine.
Regardless of the path in life I chose, I realize it's always forward, never straight.
We're almost to the point of being able to take
out a huge loan and live off the interest. How the hell did we get to this point?
PS I make more on my savings by buying a shitload of TP on sale and storing it in the basement.
And ... not one word about bit coin
or more accurately cryptocurrency, preferably spelled with (studlycaps, as some of us called it) CryptoCurrency.
CryptoCurrency is just an exaggerated case attached (leech like) to an already deregulated financial sector. Translation: If you think it is bad now, just wait … the wild ride has yet to get up to speed. Weeeee, are we having fun yet?
RIP
Bitcoin is all over the place
I have a hard time keeping up with it's spikes up and down.
Just check in next week and the story with bitcoin will have changed dramatically.
Personally I watch gold.
Mostly because I'm a long-time investor (I bought gold when it was in the $290's).
But also because it is a bellwether for the health of our fiat currencies.
Gold is having a very good year.
I bought 20 oz gold in 1972 for $40/oz
and sold it in 1989 for about $400 (needed the cash).
I'll trade you
your gold for my water.
Regardless of the path in life I chose, I realize it's always forward, never straight.
It is worth listening to Stephanie Kelton on this
She is an economics adviser to Bernie Sanders and a proponent of Modern Monetary Theory. Conventional macroeconomic theory would predict that we would be in a period of hyper-inflation at the moment because of the money pumped into the economy. However, conventional macroeconomic theory is dumb as a brick. With respect to the Trump tax cuts, for example, 83% of the tax savings went to the top 1% of income receivers. Little went to low wage earners so inflation, as measured by consumer price index, was hardly stimulated. When the top 1% receives a tax cut, they invest it. ...So there has been inflation, but in stock prices and certain sorts of assets, not in the CPI. Price/earnings multiples have been stretched. However, additional cuts in interest rates will barely stimulate the economy, because so little will reach low income individuals that would need to spend it on consumer goods. By the same token, stock prices will probably bounce back (because where else are you going to put your money if you are wealthy) at least transiently. Since the economic powers that be have barely a clue as to how to fix the world economy, however, there is danger of a major meltdown that they will not be able to fix.