What exactly is Obama trying to accomplish in Syria?

Russia is set to start flying combat missions in Syria in support of the Assad government. The Obama Administation has pulled out all the stops to keep this from happening, including having Bulgaria and Greece block Russian flights over their countries. (note: Greece refused the request)

President Obama voiced a word of warning to the Russian government this week.

"But we are going to be engaging Russia to let them know that you can't continue to double-down on a strategy that is doomed to failure," he said at an event with military service members during a visit to Maryland.

Doubling down on a failed middle east strategy is our thing! So back off Russia!

Throughout his presidency, President Obama has not wavered from his policy of regime change in Syria.

"We’ll continue to support the moderate opposition there and continue to believe that it will not be possible to fully stabilize that country until Mr. Assad, who has lost legitimacy in the country, is transitioned out,” Mr. Obama said.

That brings up the question of: So what's the plan then?
Just take a look at the current map of Syria.
 photo Syrian_civil_war_zps8lickzkf.png
Exactly who is going to take over Syria if Assad is kicked out, other than islamic jihadists that we are at war with?

It appears that hardliners within the Obama administration have placed the neocon goal of “regime change” in Syria ahead of the extraordinary dangers that could come from the black flag of Sunni terrorism raised over the capital of Damascus. That would likely be accompanied by the Islamic State chopping off the heads of Christians, Alawites, Shiites and other “heretics” and/or Al Qaeda having a major Mideast capital from which to plot more attacks on the West...
In other words, if the U.S. strategy succeeds in collapsing Assad’s defenses, there is really nothing to stop the Sunni terrorists from seizing Damascus and other major cities. Then, U.S. airstrikes on those population centers would surely kill many civilians and further radicalize the Sunnis. To oust the Islamic State and/or Al Qaeda would require a full-scale U.S. invasion, which might be inevitable but would almost certainly fail, much as Bush’s Iraq occupation did.

In reality, there are only four major power groups in Syria today:

The Syria Assad government
ISIS/Daesh
al-Qaeda and non-affiliated jihadist groups
The Kurds

The "moderate opposition" that Obama talks about is largely a fiction that exists only in his mind. Obama called it a "fantasy" last year, and it is even more true today.
While the Free Syria Army does technically still exist, its effectiveness on the battlefield is limited to support operations for the real armies. The last time it launched a significant offensive was 2014.

Sure, there are the Kurds. The most effective fighting force in Syria against ISIS, who also have progressive politics.
But take another look at that map. If Damacus falls, Kurdish forces would separated by hundreds and hundreds of miles of ISIS-dominated territory.
Even if the Kurds even had the capability of making that forced march (they don't), even if Turkey would allow the Kurds to take over Syria (they wouldn't), who says the Shia Alawites in Damascus would welcome the Sunni Kurds? The Kurds are only 10% of the population of Syria.

That only leaves al-Qaeda's Nusra Front and other jihadist groups. You might have noticed that many areas listed as "rebels" aren't actually controlled by al-Nusra. However, they are often controlled by Islamic Front forces, who like ISIS and al-Nusra, are Salafi. Together with Nusra Front, they formed the Army of Conquest which overran Idlib province this summer and pushed the Assad government to the brink.

If the Assad government falls, it'll either be ISIS or Nusra/Islamic Front jihadists that will take over Damascus, Homs, and Aleppo. There will be no moderate, pro-western government in Damascus, but Washington acts like reality doesn't matter.

As scary as these dangers are, there remains a huge gap between the real world of the Middle East and the fantasyland that is Official Washington’s perception of the region. In that land of make-believe, what matters is tough talk from ambitious politicians and opinion leaders, what I call the “er-er-er” growling approach to geopolitics.
Democratic presidential hopeful Hillary Clinton joined in that growling on Wednesday at the Brookings Institution, which has become home to neocons such as Robert Kagan and a host of “liberal interventionists,” such as Michael O’Hanlon and Strobe Talbott.
Though she formally endorsed the nuclear agreement with Iran, former Secretary of State Clinton insulted both the Iranians and the Russians. Noting Russia’s support for the Syrian government, she urged increased punishment of Moscow and Russian President Vladimir Putin — aimed at forcing Russia to abandon the Assad regime.

And then what Hillary? Unicorns will fart rainbows and the people of Syria will welcome us as liberators? Why do warhawks in Washington keep trying to sell us this fantasy that never works?

At least Russia is looking at the situation realistically.
They've twisted Assad's army until he agreed to compromise.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has said that Syria's Bashar al-Assad is ready to hold snap parliamentary elections and allow a "healthy" opposition to share power.
The Syrian president "is in agreement with" holding elections for parliament, as well as establishing contacts with the so-called healthy opposition and bringing them into the leadership, Putin told reporters on the sidelines of the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok on Friday.

That's a good starting point for talks to end this war. That's what diplomacy looks like.
Russia wants to see ISIS defeated too.
However, unlike Washington, Russia would rather ISIS be defeated soon, instead of by forces that haven't been invented yet. The consequences of waiting for this imagined scenario to happen are extreme.

Another million Syrians will flee their homes before the end of the year if the war continues unabated, a senior UN official has said.
Yacoub el-Hillo, the humanitarian coordinator in Syria, said that unless urgent action was taken to resolve the escalating conflict, refugees would also continue to flow out of the region.

Unless Washington wakes up soon, we are on the cusp of another enormous wave of refugees from Syria.

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Pluto's Republic's picture

This — like closing Guantanamo — is completely out of his control.

The Saudis (and Gulf States) and the US Neocon embeds in State and Defense are running this one. BFFs from 9/11.

Russia is attempting to prevent a continent-wide Shiite genocide; not unlike the ethnic Russian genocide that is happening in Camp Neuland, Ukraine. Same genesis.

(The whole clusterfuck makes Hillary giggle.)

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The political system is what it is because the People are who they are. — Plato
Pluto's Republic's picture

…every single Syrian in the ME will be mercilessly slaughtered. That's why they are running for their lives.

Cui bono? (Beside Israel?) The US just picks up the tab.

Whose pipeline will win the prize (transiting Syria to Europe)? Iran (the Shia) or Qatar (the Sunnis)? Israel hates the Shiites.

US-atrocity-against-Syria.png

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The political system is what it is because the People are who they are. — Plato
gulfgal98's picture

We are trying to use proxies to fight our wars of aggression but our proxies are also AlQueda with a new name. I cannot keep track of the players myself, so I guess that is the strategy. Bomb

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Do I hear the sound of guillotines being constructed?

“Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable." ~ President John F. Kennedy

...and long since dead dreams of empire, if not the even wider catastrophe of Nuke-landistanian annihilation of humanity through the devious devices of Neo-Lib-Con delusions of megalomaniacal self inflation.

Merry Melodies cannot follow such erronious egos.

"We came. We saw. He Died." Cackle cackle Bra Ha Ha, Oh so Hillarious!

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lotlizard's picture

So I guess we can count the Brookings Institution as on the same page as the Project for the New American Century now, huh.

Strobe Talbott, Bill Clinton's roommate in England when they were both Rhodes scholars … Time magazine correspondent and editor … Deputy Secretary of State under Clinton …

Sad.

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Pluto's Republic's picture

…that disgraces the corrupt corridors of DC. Bright minds. Black souls. Same old savage greed that turns everything they touch to shit..

kitler-stalin.jpg

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The political system is what it is because the People are who they are. — Plato

Obomba : Assad won an election couple of years or so back but he lost legitimacy in his country. But George Bush won the 2004 election - no fraud in Ohio, so he said in his book (not to forget Florida 2000).

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Putin is twisting Assad's arms, considering he won an election and is a legitimate president.

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He's recently come out and admitted that he has a "manpower shortage" in the army.
He has no choice but to compromise.

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We really screwed this one up. Hillary would only have us in deeper than we already are.

If we are involved in the conflict, we need to accept refugees. Period.

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has improved a great deal this year.

ISIS lost a lot of ground to the Kurds, but gained almost as much back from Assad.

However, the Nusra/Islamic Front jihadists has been the biggest change of 2015, and that all came at Assad's expense.

The only pro-Assad offensive in 2015 was Hezbollah, and that was only to get Nusra Front off the Lebanon border. Assad has been on the defensive all year long.

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shaharazade's picture

that we are not just involved in the conflict we are the creators of and have implemented the conflict. The outcome both in the ME and Africa is by design not a 'mistake'. We have madmen and women armed and dangerous running and owning the place. Time to stop giving consent to these psycho's globally. You may be a psycho Drew but they put you to shame as far as mad evil goes. If I was fleeing the killing ground in Syria the last place I would seek refuge is the US, who has perpetrated this slaughter. Deportation camps and prison's for profit along with living in a police state along with a large portion of the population being hateful, pig ignorant, bigoted, armed, xenophobic and religious fundies does not seem to be any kind of haven for anyone, let alone the refugees we created as they were declared by our government to be the global enemy. 'Terrist's are going to kill yer family' and take away your jobs.

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"terrorists" - not just in the US but
throughout Europe. If I were a cynic,
I might even posit that this has been
one of the plans all along. Because
the war profiteers aren't going to let
any potential markets for their
equipment to go untapped/exploited.
Never forget that, by definition, a global
war recognizes no earthly boundaries.

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Only connect. - E.M. Forster

Pluto's Republic's picture

…those who resist or fight back against US global terrorism taking place in their own homelands?

Or, do you mean those who seek revenge against the West for the murder of their families and the destruction of their communities by US-funded serial killers?

Or are you referring to foreign tribes seeking retribution against other foreign murderers?

We need better words and we need to use them accurately.

That's the first rule of empowerment.

::

The word "terrorism" refers to an ancient military tactic, still in play, where the opposing army attacks civilians rather than the opposing army. Think Nagasaki, Hiroshima, Dresden.

The word "terrorist" has no meaning. It's a US propaganda mind-control trigger-word used to make Americans accept war crimes against themselves and others, and accept the revocation of their human rights. It should never be used by YOU because it results in permanent brain damage similar to PTSD. Discourage others from using the word, as well. That, alone, will change America.

The pilots of the Enola Gay were not a "terrorist" group.
ISIS is not a "terrorist" group.
The Boston Bombers were not "terrorists."
American drone pilots are not "terrorists."
The KKK are not "terrorists."
The Israelis systematically exterminating Palestinians are not "terrorists."

They are ordinary people using the military tactic of "terrorism" to achieve a social aim. Why are some punished and others not?

Find the correct term for them, which can be used interchangeably and universally. This will raise your geo-political IQ substantially and allow you to see the world in an enlightened fashion (which is the opposite of sociopathic).

We must spot for one another.

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____________________

The political system is what it is because the People are who they are. — Plato

I put the words "refugees" and "terrorists"
in quotes precisely because they have
both become propaganda terms as used
by TPTB (and many others) in the West.
I put the words in quotes in the context
of the sentence to point out the
"re-definability" of the terms as it suits
the needs or whim of those driving the
propaganda in which we in the West are
awash these days.

I evidently didn't make my point very
clearly. Sorry for the confusion.

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Only connect. - E.M. Forster

Pluto's Republic's picture

I appreciate that.

(I'm on an anti-propaganda crusade lately, because it is the first and most daunting hurdle that prevents the people from being empowered. The brain-damage is pretty ubiquitous in the US. It's not quite so bad in the Eastern Hemisphere because they've been around for thousands of years and are not isolated by vast oceans and pathologically xenophobic, to boot.)

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____________________

The political system is what it is because the People are who they are. — Plato

You might try this article on consortiumnews.com:

‘Regime Change’ Strategy Spreads Chaos
September 11, 2015
Official Washington’s “regime change” strategy for governments that have somehow gotten on the “enemies list” is now threatening to destabilize not just the Mideast and Africa but Europe as well, yet there is little indication that these policies will change, as Nat Parry describes.
By Nat Parry
...and snip:
"early a decade ago, a National Intelligence Estimate – representing the consensus view of the 16 spy services inside the U.S. government – starkly warned that a whole new generation of Islamic radicalism was being spawned by the U.S. occupation of Iraq. According to one American intelligence official, the consensus was that “the Iraq war has made the overall terrorism problem worse.”
The assessment noted that several underlying factors were “fueling the spread of the jihadist movement,” including “entrenched grievances, such as corruption, injustice, and fear of Western domination, leading to anger, humiliation, and a sense of powerlessness,” and “pervasive anti-U.S. sentiment among most Muslims – all of which jihadists exploit.”
But rather than leading to substantive changes or reversals in U.S. policies, the strategy agreed upon in Washington seemed to be to double down on the failed policies...

Nulandi-itunes and Neo melodies~~~~~~

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