Hot Air

Something to keep in mind… “If our world is totally unsustainable, how do we retreat from it sustainably?" James Lovelock

Last week mhagle highlighted a paper on sustainability. The precise analysis of climate- change science and the attention to climate-change denial are what caught my attention.

Jem Bendell has worked in the sustainability field for over 25 years. He believes that “this is one of the first papers in the sustainability management field to conclude that climate-induced societal collapse is now inevitable in the near term...”

He unswervingly tackles near-term “climate-induced societal collapse” as it is happening now, in 2018. His climate change analysis is based on research papers written after 2014 - inclusive. His discussion on the psychology of individual and corporate climate-change denial is germane.

Deep Adaption: A Map for Navigating Climate Tragedy by Professor Jem Bendell AB (Hons) PhD, A paper from the Institute of Leadership & Sustainability

A synopsis…

“Global temperature rise is undisputable.” The Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) “has a track record of significantly underestimating the pace of change.”

(The IPCC is unable to address the non-linear nature of climate change because their decisions are made by consensus…)

Artic warming is “already equivalent to 25% of the direct forcing of temperature increase from CO2 during the past 20 years.” Sea-level rise is greater than models predicted and is non-linear.

“…in ten years prior to 2016 the Atlantic Ocean soaked up 50% more CO2 than it did the previous decade, measurably speeding up the acidification of the ocean.” CO2 removal will not prevent damage to marine live due to already locked-in acidification. In 2017, scientists reported that the permafrost layer has thinned enough to risk destabilizing hydrates.”

(And, as I have said often and frequently…)

Methane release could be catastrophic but is unfortunately debated because there is no scientific consensus.

“However, a key reason for their conclusion was the lack of data showing actual increases in atmospheric methane at the surface of the Arctic, which is partly the result of a lack of sensors collecting such information. Most ground-level methane measuring systems are on land. Could that be why the unusual increases in atmospheric methane concentrations cannot be fully explained by existing data sets”

"In 2010 a group of scientists published a study that warned how the warming of the Arctic could lead to a speed and scale of methane release that would be catastrophic." Arctic News (2018) indicated that mid-altitude “methane was around 1865 ppb, … while surface measurement of methane increases. By about 15 ppb in that time. Both figures are consistent with non-linear increase – potentially exponential – in atmospheric levels since 2007. That is worrying data but the more significant matter is the difference between the increase measured at ground and mid altitudes. That is consistent with this added methane coming from our oceans, which could in turn be from methane hydrates.”

We know we need to stay beneath 2 degrees above pre-industrial but “it is unlikely we will keep within the carbon limit.” And more importantly, “there is not a carbon budget – it has already been overspent.”

“It is difficult to predict future impacts. But it is more difficult not to predict them.”

These changes will impact human habitat and agriculture and are already costing billions of dollars a year. (Beckwith mentions that we need to think about new ways to raise food in almost every one of his blog entries.) Half of all plants and animal species are at risk of extinction.

“Human ingenuity has increasingly been channeled into consumerism and financial engineering.”

Bioengineering is looked to as a possible solution but it is unpredictable and it is unlikely that it will succeed. But there are biological approaches to carbon capture that will help, such as planting trees, growing seagrass, and no-till agriculture.

(The prognosis is not good and he paints a very graphic picture of the impact…)

“The impacts will be catastrophic to our livelihoods and the societies that we lie within. … I mean in your own life. With the power down soon you wouldn’t have water coming out of your tap. You will depend on your neighbors for food and some warmth. You will become malnourished. You won’t know whether to stay or go. Your will fear being violently killed before starving to death.”

(We, as humans, are excellent at denial. James Lovelock has this very sobering thing to say about it in The Vanishing Face of Gaia…)

For now, it is useful to compare the Earth with an iced drink. You will have noticed that the drink stay cold until the last of the ice melts, and so to some extent is with the Earth. A great deal of the heat of global heating has gone into warming that huge lump of water, the ocean, and into melting ice. This may be one of several reasons why it has not warmed more., but once the ice has melted and the mixing of the ocean waters had reached a dynamic equilibrium, global heating will proceed ever faster than before.

Our contemporary industrial civilization is hopelessly unfitted to survive on an overpopulated and under-resourced planet, deluded by the thought that clever inventions and progress will provide the shoehorn that fits us into our niche. I think it is better if we accept and understand how poor the chance of our personal survival is…

Bendell addresses the reticence to communicate the hard facts to the public - why some environmentalists think it is irresponsible to tell people the truth, and discusses factors that encourage professional environmentalist to deny societies near-term collapse. These processes make it difficult to for sustainability experts and others to move forward with solutions.

“There is a “scientific reticence” to conclude and communicate scenarios that would be disturbing to employers, governments and the public.” And there is an “institutional denial due to self-interest. Addressing social collapse would affect their bottom line.”

Currently, I have chosen to interpret the information as indicating inevitable collapse, probable catastrophe and possible extinction. There is a growing community of people who conclude we face inevitable human extinction and treat that view as a prerequisite for meaningful discussions about the implications for our lives right now.”

He then examines the importance of talking about this, institutional adaption agendas, and future research.

“The West’s response to environmental issues has been restricted by the dominance of neoliberal economics since the 1970s. That led to hyper-individualist, market fundamentalist, incremental and atomistic approaches. By hyper-individualist, I mean a focus on individual action as consumers, switching light bulbs or buying sustainable furniture, rather than promoting political action as engaged citizens. By market fundamentalist, I mean a focus on market mechanisms like the complex, costly and largely useless carbon cap and trade systems, rather than exploring what more government intervention could achieve. By incremental, I mean a focus on celebrating small steps forward such as a company publishing a sustainability report, rather than strategies designed for a speed and scale of change suggested by the science. By atomistic, I mean a focus on seeing climate action as a separate issue from the governance of markets, finance and banking, rather than exploring what kind of economic system could permit or enable sustainability. “

He concludes…

“Important steps on climate mitigation and adaptation have been taken over the past decade. However, these steps could now be regarded as equivalent to walking up a landslide. If the landslide had not already begun, then quicker and bigger steps would get us to the top of where we want to be. Sadly, the latest climate data, emissions data and data on the spread of carbon-intensive lifestyles, show that the landslide has already begun. As the point of no return can’t be fully known until after the event, ambitious work on reducing carbon emissions and extracting more from the air (naturally and synthetically) is more critical than ever. That must involve a new front of action on methane.”

HOT AIR NEWS ROUNDUP

General Climate Change News

Long interesting article…

One of the largest oilsands mines ever proposed advances to public hearings
The Narwhal September 20,2018

But while Canadians are left to wonder if Fort Hills is indeed the last big oilsands project, another massive open-pit mine — possibly the largest to ever be built in Alberta — is quietly working its way through the Canadian Environmental Assessment Agency’s approval process.

The proposed Frontier project would cover an area of 24,000 hectares, producing 260,000 barrels per day of bitumen at its peak. The mine would be the furthest north in the oilsands, and just 25 kilometres south of Wood Buffalo National Park. Teck estimates the bitumen resources to be tapped are in the neighbourhood of 3.2 billion barrels.

“Look at the returns you’ve gotten from the oilsands over the last five to six years,” Rubin told The Narwhal. “And consider how viable that resource will be if, in fact, the world does mitigate climate change.” He noted that if the world does take action on climate change in the long-term — as many nations have committed to do — world oil demand will be forced to decline.

Watch the first few minutes of this to get a feel for the immensity…

Ultimate Oil Sands Mine Alberta Canada
[video:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o3ekqz3JfQ0]

By Jove! Methane's effects on sunlight vary by region
Phys Org September 26,2018

Scientists investigating how human-induced increases in atmospheric methane also increase the amount of solar energy absorbed by that gas in our climate system have discovered that this absorption is 10 times stronger over desert regions such as the Sahara Desert and Arabian Peninsula than elsewhere on Earth, and nearly three times more powerful in the presence of clouds.

A research team from the U.S. Department of Energy's Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab) came to this conclusion after evaluating observations of Jupiter and Titan (a moon of Saturn), where methane concentrations are more than a thousand times those on Earth, to quantify methane's shortwave radiative effects here on Earth.

Scientists ID three causes of Earth's spin axis drift
NASA September 19, 2018

"The traditional explanation is that one process, glacial rebound, is responsible for this motion of Earth's spin axis. But recently, many researchers have speculated that other processes could have potentially large effects on it as well," said first author Surendra Adhikari of NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California. "We assembled models for a suite of processes that are thought to be important for driving the motion of the spin axis. We identified not one but three sets of processes that are crucial -- and melting of the global cryosphere (especially Greenland) over the course of the 20th century is one of them."

Wildlife & the Environment

Vanishing Joshua trees: climate change will ravage US national parks, study says
The Guardian September 25, 2018

Most of Joshua Tree national park could become uninhabitable for its eponymous trees, glaciers will continue to melt away at Glacier national park, and many other of America’s most treasured beauty spots could be rendered virtually unrecognizable by climate change, Patrick Gonzalez, the lead author of the study, writes in the journal Environmental Research Letters.

Even the tiniest of creatures are at risk in the worst-case predictions: the American pika, a small alpine mammal, may no longer be able to survive on park land.

A Federal Judge Restored Endangered Species Protection for Grizzlies in Yellowstone

Mother Jones September 25, 2018

A federal judge on Monday restored endangered species protection to about 700 grizzly bears living in or around Yellowstone National Park just days before Wyoming and Idaho were set to allow the hunting of nearly two dozen of the animals.

Recent Climate Change Studies

What’s Causing Antarctica’s Ocean to Heat Up? New Study Points to 2 Human Sources
Inside Climate News September 24, 2018

With help from floating data-collectors, a new study reveals the impact greenhouse gas emissions and ozone depletion are having on the Southern Ocean.

The Southern Ocean around Antarctica is warming at an alarming rate—twice that of the rest of the world's oceans. Now, researchers have developed more powerful evidence pointing to the human causes.

For this study, Swart and his colleagues used data collected in the Southern Ocean from 1950 onward, which showed the pattern of warming and freshening. Then they turned to computer models to try to replicate the cause.

The role that ozone depletion is playing in warming the Southern Ocean is far less than the role of greenhouse gas emissions, though, and so far, those emissions have been a stickier problem to fix.

The study also suggested that most of the increasing freshwater content in the oceans is coming from precipitation, rather than melting ice from Antarctica.

Research Forecasts US Among Top Nations to Suffer Economic Damage from Climate Change
Climate Change News September 25, 2018

The findings, which appear in Nature Climate Change, estimate country-level contributions to the social cost of carbon (SCC) using recent climate model projections, empirical climate-driven economic damage estimations and socioeconomic forecasts

 

Temperatures Possible This Century Could Melt Parts of East Antarctic Ice Sheet, Raise Sea Levels 10+ Feet
EcoWatch September 21, 2018

A section of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet that contains three to four meters (approximately 10 to 13 feet) of potential sea level rise could melt if temperatures rise to just two degrees above pre-industrial levels, a study published in Nature Wednesday found.

Researchers at Imperial College London, the University of Queensland, and other institutions in New Zealand, Japan and Spain looked at marine sediments to assess the behavior of the Wilkes Subglacial Basin during warmer periods of the Pleistocene and found evidence of melting when temperatures in Antarctica were at least two degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels for periods of 2,500 years or more.

"With current global temperatures already one degree higher than during pre-industrial times, future ice loss seems inevitable if we fail to reduce carbon emissions," Imperial College researcher Dr. David Wilson said in a University of Queensland press release published by ScienceDaily.

Flood frequency of Amazon River has increased fivefold
Science Daily September 20, 2018

A recent study of more than 100 years of river level records from the Amazon shows a significant increase in frequency and severity of floods. The scientists' analysis of the potential causes could contribute to more accurate flood prediction for the Amazon Basin.

Unprecedented ice loss in Russian ice cap
Science News September 19, 2018

In the last few years, the Vavilov Ice Cap in the Russian High Arctic has dramatically accelerated, sliding as much as 82 feet a day in 2015, according to a new multi-national, multi-institute study. That dwarfs the ice's previous average speed of about 2 inches per day and has challenged scientists' assumptions about the stability of the cold ice caps dotting Earth's high latitudes.


Global Warning

QMS: Time to disconnect greed from the welfare of earth, if survival means anything. I like trees.

Paul Beckwith: "I declare a global climate change emergency to claw back up the rock face to attempt to regain system stability, or face an untenable calamity of biblical proportions."

Kevin Hester: "There is no past analogue for the rapidity of what we are baring witness to. There has been a flood of articles ... 2C is no longer attainable and that we are heading for dangerous climate change"

Guy McPherson: "The recent and near-future rises in temperature are occurring and will occur at least an order of magnitude faster than the worst of all prior Mass Extinctions. Habitat for human animals is disappearing throughout the world, and abrupt climate change has barely begun."

me… We need to turn on a dime at mach nine!

Enjoy!
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mimi's picture

[video:https://youtu.be/WWG6jaBFYtU]

I will read your OT later, sorry, just ran into that video and couldn't resist to post it.
I think Mr. Beautiful had a couple of shots of something ... may be too many, heh?

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magiamma's picture

@mimi
(But, it's evening for you.) Never ending saga, that dumpster. Smile

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lotlizard's picture

Nah. Take a look at the Fifties. Not even close.

Try “live hydrogen-bomb tests in the atmosphere.”

. . . Los Alamos Laboratory miscalculated, and instead of the bomb blast delivering a planned yield of 6 megatons, it yielded an unimaginable FIFTEEN megatons.

https://birthmoviesdeath.com/2013/07/28/lucky-dragon-5-and-the-terrifyin...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daigo_Fukury%C5%AB_Maru

Trust the government and its experts — they’d never lie to us, right? America would never falsely accuse foreigners of spying to cover its own (radioactive) “ash.”

Right?

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magiamma's picture

@lotlizard
what a sad and stupid mistake. The fishing boat near the blast was covered in white ash.

The Lucky Dragon 5 survived the initial blast, but soon, a mysterious cloud of white “death ash” began to softly rain down on the ship. Later tests determined it was atomized coral,

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magiamma's picture

Due to global warming they had several tornadoes in Ontario and Quebec.

[video:https://youtu.be/UpzkfZMHJpA]

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mhagle's picture

Deep Adaptation:A Map for Navigating Climate Tragedy

I really appreciate that you reviewed this study. I have not even had the chance to finish reading it. This statement is one of the most significant IMO:

“Currently, I have chosen to interpret the information as indicating inevitable collapse, probable catastrophe and possible extinction."

It's the clearest and healthiest in my mind. Acknowledging what we know and what we don't know and still moving forward.

Here is an article about an upcoming book on regenerative agriculture:

https://www.resilience.org/stories/2018-09-26/one-size-fits-none-excerpt/

The full book comes out in January. It's like Paul B says . . . we need to find different ways to grow food. My food growing science experiment continues here in Texas.

A variety of eggplant that will grow here - just discovered these last weekend in my garden.
IMG_3962 (1).jpg

This year I was diligent about planting in early August. I shaded the tomatoes at first. Veggies currently growing and looking promising are corn, peanuts, potatoes, tomatoes, peppers, eggplant, long Italian winter squash, long beans, and Jerusalem artichokes. Most of these I will no longer plant in the Spring. Still growing only in the round bales, raised lasagna beds, and the 4 ft pit filled with logs, brush, cardboard, and topped with creek bed soil. Hopefully it will at least not freeze sooner than usual in November!

Also learned on YouTube last week that some squash varieties attract squash bugs. By george, I believe they are correct! Yellow crookneck, straightneck, and dark green zucchini are the culprits for me here. And they don't even produce worth a darn. Done raising those guys! Unfortunately, that is what they sell in the local stores.

[video:https://youtu.be/rru3ly7hp-o]

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Marilyn

"Make dirt, not war." eyo

magiamma's picture

@mhagle
You are welcome and thanks for the tip. Bendell distills the essence of current climate science into a tightly packed paragraphs that are ejected like machine gun bullets. Nuggets. Tasty. Methane. He gets methane.

But what really caught my attention was his - we're all gonna die, wake the fuck up - call. Adapt or die.

All the new CC studies point to things unraveling faster than the last new studies. We need to acknowledge where we are in order to create a plan to move forward. If that is even possible. Methane.

Love the darling little eggy plants and the garden video. Thank you.

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mhagle's picture

@magiamma

We might need an underground living space for a few summer months . . .

And then growing food through the fall and winter. However, we have extreme cold temps in winter now too . . . in the teens.

Water harvesting too. Solar power.

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Marilyn

"Make dirt, not war." eyo

magiamma's picture

@mhagle

Underground is a good way to go for both hot and cold. In the Lovelock book he talks about how his father dug an air raid shelter in his back yard that was 40 feet deep. Took him a year or more.

I think they have been harvesting water in the mountains by the coast in South America for some time. I remember reading about it somewhere. There is a lot of stuff out there. Do you have ideas for harvesting water.

A quick search brought this up...

How to get fresh water out of thin air

Fog-harvesting
system developed by MIT and Chilean researchers could provide potable water for the world’s driest regions.

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mhagle's picture

@magiamma

I'll check it out.

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Marilyn

"Make dirt, not war." eyo

WoodsDweller's picture

@magiamma
https://www.timesofisrael.com/extracting-water-from-air-israeli-firm-loo...

They claim 4 litres per kilowatt hour. That's fine for drinking water, hard to grow food at that rate.

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"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." -- Albert Bartlett
"A species that is hurtling toward extinction has no business promoting slow incremental change." -- Caitlin Johnstone

but it might be too late

That’s according to a new poll released Wednesday night by the Public Policy Institute of California, which tracked the high-profile race between Feinstein, 85, and de León, 50, the progressive Democrat who authored California’s controversial “sanctuary state” bill. The survey showed Feinstein leading de León by 11 points among likely voters — 40 percent to 29 percent — with 8 percent still undecided.

While still robust, that margin over de León, who won the endorsement of the California Democratic Party’s executive board earlier this year, has shrunk markedly since July, when Feinstein led by a whopping 22 points — 46 to 24 percent.

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magiamma's picture

@gjohnsit
I was gobsmacked. Glad to hear she might be slip slidin' away.

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WoodsDweller's picture

thanks.

these steps could now be regarded as equivalent to walking up a landslide

This is a great analogy.

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"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." -- Albert Bartlett
"A species that is hurtling toward extinction has no business promoting slow incremental change." -- Caitlin Johnstone

magiamma's picture

@WoodsDweller
Thank you and thanks for stopping by. I thought so too. Hard to walk up a landslide.

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enhydra lutris's picture

OT and info all the same. Have a good day.

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That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --

magiamma's picture

@enhydra lutris
have a good one! Smile

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