Economic war on Russia has failed. Now what?

The Russian economy was supposed to collapse in 2022 because of our sanctions. After all, we illegally seized more than $300 Billion and plan on using it to rebuild Ukraine, while NATO bankrupts Russia in its war against Ukraine.. This was supposed to crush Russia and bring it to heel.

What has happened instead is Russia's trade surplus has grown larger, thus Russia has no immediate need for that $300 Billion.
Meanwhile, instead of Russia's economy being crushed, Russia's economy has grown (although slowly).

(Reuters) - Russia's economy ministry revised higher on Friday its 2023 gross domestic product (GDP) forecast to 1.2% growth from a 0.8% contraction, but lowered its forecast for 2024, mirroring a wider trend that envisages more sluggish longer term prospects.
The economy ministry forecast GDP growth of 2% in 2024, down from 2.6% when it last provided macroeconomic forecasts in the autumn.

Russia's economy defied early expectations for a double-digit economic contraction in 2022, in forecasts made soon after Moscow sent troops into Ukraine in February of that year, but a return to prosperity remains a long way off as the government directs more spending towards the military.

But probably the biggest surprise is that Russia has managed to make war on Ukraine on the cheap.

ussia's invasion of Ukraine has come at a steep geopolitical price and tens of thousands of people have died, but a new analysis by the Economist suggests the country is actually spending a small amount on the war effort.

The direct fiscal cost of the war — spending on soldiers and machines — is estimated to be about 3% of Russia's GDP, or roughly $67 billion a year, according to the report. That figure comes from a comparison of Moscow's pre-invasion spending forecasts for defense and security with what it actually spent.

By historical standards, the current war pales in comparison. The Soviet Union during World War II, for example, spent about 61% of GDP, and the US at the same time put about 50% of its GDP toward the conflict.

This is amazing, considering that the U.S. is still on pace to go bankrupt from military spending but Russia isn't.
Unless NATO can somehow get China and India to magically start to comply with the sanctions, this is unlikely too change.

So what does this all mean?
Well, don't think that the significance of the U.S. simply seizing more than $300 Billion and spending it as we wish. While Britain has nothing to worry about, countries like China have plenty of reasons to be concerned when it comes to the fate of their dollar holdings. Even nations like India, Vietnam, Mexico and Brazil should be concerned. This puts a lot of pressure on a reserve currency.
Another lesson being taught is that it IS possible to stand up to America.

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seem not to quicken in the thoughts of the domestic herd

thanks for the essay

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including those on new countries that a supposedly bypassing the sanctions.

After all previous sanctions have worked wonders on Russia. Iran and North Korea getting them to adhere to The New World Order. /S

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@humphrey
have rpvoen that a a nation can susvive hose sanctions,..at a cost
Russia (and the old USSR) proved that a country could do more than just survive, as long as China and India can somewhat remain in the global economy.

What will people do after the US blown up the global economy again?

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@gjohnsit GJohn, speaking of Cuba, did you happen to see that earlier this week WaPo ran an article saying (something to the effect of) that next pandemic we should allow Cuba to develop the vaccine? They made the argument that Cubas program was more cost effective and more beneficial.
Heck, I might have seen that in something you posted.
Either way, the point being, that America has found a way to spend the MOST and get the LEAST in return. Whether it be war or public health. Highways, bridges and infrastructure. Education. You name it. Its like our economy is built on "THE SKIM" and we cant understand that if we go up against global competition where they are running "a tight ship" then we will lose.

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1- The US, UK and NATO abandon what’s left of Ukraine and pivot to Finland (?) in the next proxy war against Russia.

2- US Treasuries go tits up due to lack of demand for $’s. Stock Market crashes.

3- Stock Market crashes. Treasuries default.

4- Transgender issues replace all other News, the entire population forgets about everything else.

5- The US Military realizes it’s out of all other ammunition and decides to make use of the 8,000+ nukes on hand. All other concerns turn to dust.

6- The WEF and WHO jointly negotiate end of Ukraine conflict and appoint themselves rulers of the entire planet. Everyone is suddenly happy, for no clear reason, and hand over everything they own to Klaus & Co. Everyone begins a lifetime term of servitude for a substance UBI.

Which of these options is most palatable?
Which is most probable?
Which is most idiotic?

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“What the herd hates most is the one who thinks differently; it is not so much the opinion itself, but the audacity of wanting to think for themselves, something that they do not know how to do.”
-Arthur Schopenhauer (1788-1860)

@ovals49 is overtaking my legal profession, most of the D party...
It leads the way.

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"We'll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American public believes is false." ---- William Casey, CIA Director, 1981

usefewersyllables's picture

@ovals49

#7: the USG just keeps doubling down, sending more and more and more and more weapons to the Ukraine for the next 20 years, until we've completely and voluntarily bankrupted ourselves.

That's the best scenario that I can come up with. "Peace with Honor" isn't profitable, and as the Krupps demonstrated in WWI, there's always a new war somewhere...

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Twice bitten, permanently shy.

Cassiodorus's picture

@ovals49

The US, UK and NATO abandon what’s left of Ukraine and pivot to Finland (?) in the next proxy war against Russia.

You may recall that one of the reasons the West wants that portion of Ukraine currently occupied by Russia (and one of the reasons Russia has it under control) is that it's rich in resources and that there is already an industrial infrastructure there to exploit them. Finland can't really claim anything of the sort.

The proxy war in Ukraine, then, is a property grab, one that the Ukrainians are losing so badly that there is unlikely to be another one. One thing it's easy to imagine, though, is a military draft here in the US. As for the nukes, here's Simplicius the Thinker:

I hate to say it, but it’s looking more and more likely that the West will have no choice but to spark off a WW3 type scenario. The West is losing far too much ground far too fast, economically and by every other measure.

Thanks Joe. Thanks Bernie.

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"Our national nightmare is over -- time for a new one." - anonymous response to "Biden's" statement

@Cassiodorus
after a $15B IMF loan included preconditions that stipulated a reversal of their National policy that land could not be sold to foreigners, and that an ‘austerity program’ would be implemented.

You may recall that one of the reasons the West wants that portion of Ukraine currently occupied by Russia (and one of the reasons Russia has it under control) is that it's rich in resources and that there is already an industrial infrastructure there to exploit them.

As a result of these IMF preconditions, Western Big-Ag interests already ‘own’ a substantial portion of Ukraine’s most fertile agricultural land. That is, presumably, IF that land remains part of the territory of Ukraine, and is not annexed by Russia. The same caveat would also apply to the more industrial areas in eastern Ukraine.

Russia’s initial impetus was to secure its border from both the possibility of having both nuclear weapons (US-NATO) and bio-weapons threats (US run ‘research’ bio-labs) right on its border. Russia has no need for either more arable land or additional manufacturing capacity. They are already arguably one of the most self sufficient nations on the planet, and decidedly more so than the US or UK. This conflict seems to be much more about border security issues and NATO’s relentless eastward march and provocations than something initiated as a land grab.

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“What the herd hates most is the one who thinks differently; it is not so much the opinion itself, but the audacity of wanting to think for themselves, something that they do not know how to do.”
-Arthur Schopenhauer (1788-1860)

Cassiodorus's picture

@ovals49 Instead I decided to write a diary in response.

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"Our national nightmare is over -- time for a new one." - anonymous response to "Biden's" statement

@Cassiodorus
I’m looking forward to your diary. There is a lot of important activity going on …….. it’s so hard for me to get a clear sense of the big picture, but I feel I need to keep trying.

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“What the herd hates most is the one who thinks differently; it is not so much the opinion itself, but the audacity of wanting to think for themselves, something that they do not know how to do.”
-Arthur Schopenhauer (1788-1860)

Cassiodorus's picture

In short, instead of destroying Russia, confiscating the oligarchs' money abroad forced them to invest in Russia, and so Russia is booming, and now the rest of the world wants to invest in Russia as well. Here's Simplicius the Thinker on this little matter.

Thanks Joe. Thanks Bernie.

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"Our national nightmare is over -- time for a new one." - anonymous response to "Biden's" statement

will manufacture consent to -as Reagan famously said - put aside our differences and confront our common foe: the aliens.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=-K4PwLz_uvg

Just like Oppenheimer said. "And all of it one great Lie."

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