CBS Polls: Bernie Starts 2020 in Strong Position in Iowa and New Hampshire

Bernie's off to a good start in the first two states. Two things:

  • It could be that only 5 candidates qualify for the next debate held on Tuesday, January 14th in Iowa. With fewer candidates on the stage, Bernie can get more speaking time and contrast his policy positions better against the other remaining candidates.
  • 2nd choices are crucial in Iowa. Morning Consult has been keeping track of all candidates who are the second choice for voters and Bernie's leading in that category. If a candidate has less than 15% support at a precinct in Iowa, then his/her supporters must choose another option. I think you can safely add 4%-6% to Bernie's total and it wouldn't be incorrect to say that he's the leader today in Iowa. Add in a huge number of volunteers and the most money. That's the recipe for Bernie's success!

In Iowa, Bernie's tied for first.

Three-Way Tie In Iowa
January 5, 2020

A new CBS News poll in Iowa finds Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders and Pete Buttigieg tied in the Democratic presidential race with 23% each.

They are followed by Elizabeth Warren at 16% and Amy Klobuchar at 7%.

Key takeaway: Sanders leads the field on two key measures: 43% have definitely made up their minds, and 67% feel enthusiastic in a state where enthusiasm can be an important motivator for voters to go out and caucus.



In New Hampshire, Bernie's alone in first place.

Sanders Leads In New Hampshire
January 5, 2020

A new CBS News poll in New Hampshire finds Bernie Sanders in front with 27%, followed by Joe Biden at 25%, Elizabeth Warren at 18%, Pete Buttigieg at 13% and Amy Klobuchar at 7%.

If Bernie wins both Iowa and New Hampshire - certainly a distinct possibility - watch out! He might be unstoppable and easily end up as the 2020 Democratic nominee.

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JekyllnHyde's picture

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38 users have voted.

A riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma

Hawkfish's picture

@JekyllnHyde

That said simply “Bernie cares about you”. There was some pushback from the comments about how this was too personal, but I think that personal is exactly what people are missing these days. The Dims plan to repeat 2016 and pick up suburban goopers is doomed to failure, but what will work is expanding the voter pool. Most non-voters don’t think anyone cares about them, so telling them this emotional truth about Bernie seems like a winner.

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28 users have voted.

We can’t save the world by playing by the rules, because the rules have to be changed.
- Greta Thunberg

Pricknick's picture

@Hawkfish

There was some pushback from the comments about how this was too personal,

Mhagel was asking for opinions on the project.
That's what was given.

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11 users have voted.

Regardless of the path in life I chose, I realize it's always forward, never straight.

Hawkfish's picture

@Pricknick

I didn’t mean it in a pejorative sense - sorry if that was not clear!

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11 users have voted.

We can’t save the world by playing by the rules, because the rules have to be changed.
- Greta Thunberg

mhagle's picture

@Hawkfish @Hawkfish

I printed it out and taped it in the corner of the back window of my smart car.

I believe it is the message for conservative Texas.

Although in other states there may be a better message.

Remember that you can easily design your own "bumper sticker" if you just tape it to the inside corner of your back window. Plain paper works fine.

Create one that you think will be the most influential for your area.

I-m so happy

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Marilyn

"Make dirt, not war." eyo

mhagle's picture

@mhagle

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Marilyn

"Make dirt, not war." eyo

TheOtherMaven's picture

than they did in 2016.

It will be the dirtiest campaign ever.

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17 users have voted.

There is no justice. There can be no peace.

Wally's picture

@TheOtherMaven

We may never get another chance like this.

But of course it will be dirty.

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thanatokephaloides's picture

@TheOtherMaven

Naah, the DNC and PTB will just gang up on him even harder than they did in 2016.

It will be the dirtiest campaign ever.

It may well be so dirty that everyone knows it; everyone will be talking about it; the news outlets will have to cover it; and the pitchforks and torches will come for the Deep State's neolibcon technocrats at long last and whether the powers-that-be want it or not.

The PTB might just want to go ahead and allow Bernie into the Oval Office rather than face this.

Bad

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16 users have voted.

"I say enough! If Israel wants to be the only superpower in the Middle East then they can put their own asses on the line and do it themselves. I want to continue to eat."
-- snoopydawg

WoodsDweller's picture

For Iowa here https://drive.google.com/file/d/1YoVEJY6TBhHvfrmNoApfpvOHNtNM6t6O/view, I didn't check New Hampshire.

Among the candidates you are considering, if the 2020 Democratic primary or caucus in your state were held today, which ONE of those candidates would
you vote for?

Columns are (weighted total) (age 18-44) (age 45+)

Bernie Sanders 23% 38% 15%
Joe Biden 23% 15% 27%
Pete Buttigieg 23% 18% 25%
Elizabeth Warren 16% 15% 17%

The youth vote belongs to Bernie. Big turnout == big win.

16. Qualities that Describe - Bernie Sanders
Which of these qualities do you feel describe Bernie Sanders? CHECK ALL THAT APPLY

Columns are (weighted total) (age 18-44) (age 45+)

Exciting 39% 57% 28%
Boring 14% 14% 15%
Safe 20% 24% 18%
Risky 42% 32% 48%
Prepared 39% 43% 37%
Principled 42% 42% 42%

Everyone thinks he's principled and prepared. Young folks think he's exciting and risky, old folks just think he's risky.

17. Qualities that Describe - Joe Biden
Which of these qualities do you feel describe Joe Biden? CHECK ALL THAT APPLY

Columns are (weighted total) (age 18-44) (age 45+)

Exciting 14% 20% 11%
Boring 26% 33% 21%
Safe 53% 49% 56%
Risky 20% 24% 18%
Prepared 44% 34% 50%
Principled 39% 28% 46%

Nobody thinks he's exciting. Everyone thinks he's safe. Old folks think he's prepared and principled, young folks don't.

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"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." -- Albert Bartlett

mimi's picture

I would be interested in your opinion about that.

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9 users have voted.

Please disarm all the US police officers.

JekyllnHyde's picture

@mimi

Bernie believes that he is the best qualified to win the presidency and implement his agenda to help ordinary people. And he has spent a number of years (if not decades) popularizing ideas that move the policy conversation much more to the left. That effort has paid dividends and is reflected in his growing support. Bernie's unique in the sense that he first built a political movement and is now trying to merge it with electoral politics.

No other presidential candidate (Tulsi Gabbard included) has done that. It's important to be an effective critic; that, in itself, will only take you so far. In electoral politics, you must demonstrate in a tangible way that you've had success convincing others to support your cause.

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37 users have voted.

A riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma

mimi's picture

@JekyllnHyde

In electoral politics, you must demonstrate in a tangible way that you've had success convincing others to support your cause.

I guess then that trump had a very tangible way... how did he do that? What was his cause again?

NO need to respond to this. I am too frustrated to care.

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6 users have voted.

Please disarm all the US police officers.

WoodsDweller's picture

@mimi @mimi
that Trump didn't win, Clinton lost. We are so far past the conservative demographic peak that 100% turnout by the right doesn't win them much. If Democratic voters, particularly the young voters who are unreliable voters, register and vote we can win and win big. If they sit out the election because the candidates suck, Republicans can walk away with all the power.

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16 users have voted.

"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." -- Albert Bartlett

@WoodsDweller The Democrats and Greens got 67,310,732 votes and the Republicans and Libertarians got 67,474,169 votes. So the left lost the popular vote to the right by nearly 164,000 votes.

The libertarians also cost Trump EC wins in the states of MN, Colorado, Nevada, NH and 1 vote in Maine. It could have been an EC bloodbath. It was bad enough as it was.

So what do you think now about the meme?

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@JekyllnHyde
And Pelosi is Speaker and Schumer or Durbin is majority leader, it will make absolutely no difference in our lives. Bernie can propose and command the airwaves, but Wall Street will still own the Congress.

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14 users have voted.

We are so screwed.

mhagle's picture

@The Voice In the Wilderness

We will have to work hard for progressives everywhere.

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21 users have voted.

Marilyn

"Make dirt, not war." eyo

@mhagle
But I don't see the candidates here in Illinois.

Just machine Democrats and religious fanatic Reagan-worshipping Republicans.
And whole lot of turned off ordinary people.

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12 users have voted.

We are so screwed.

Centaurea's picture

@The Voice In the Wilderness
I can think of two progressive candidates there immediately.

There's Marie Newman, who's running to unseat the incumbent conservadem US Rep, Dan Lipinski, in District 3.

https://www.marienewmanforcongress.com

There's Anthony Clark, a democratic socialist running as a dem to unseat an establishment dem in District 7. He's been endorsed by Brand New Congress.

https://www.voteanthonyclark.com

Both of these are strong candidates. I live in the Pacific NW, not in Illinois, but I have monthly recurring donations set up to support both Clark and Newman.

Here's a list of all of the progressive candidates nationwide, prepared by a poster over at WoTB.

https://www.reddit.com/r/WayOfTheBern/comments/ei3ycu/list_of_2020_progr...

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"Don't go back to sleep ... Don't go back to sleep ... Don't go back to sleep."
~Rumi

"If you want revolution, be it."
~Caitlin Johnstone

@Centaurea
Thanks for your input.

EDIT:
Lipinski is a hereditary dinosaur that votes with (R)'s most of the time. He seems to be more concerned with the lives of fetuses than the working men and women of his district.

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14 users have voted.

We are so screwed.

Centaurea's picture

@The Voice In the Wilderness
is the specific reason I'm supporting Newman. I've been hearing about him and his reactionary, 19th century attitudes for years. He's a legacy congressman; he basically inherited the seat from his father. Two generations of Lipinskis is two too many.

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15 users have voted.

"Don't go back to sleep ... Don't go back to sleep ... Don't go back to sleep."
~Rumi

"If you want revolution, be it."
~Caitlin Johnstone

Benny's picture

@Centaurea

He's a DSA member.

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12 users have voted.

One equal temper of heroic hearts, Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will. To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.--Tennyson

WaterLily's picture

@The Voice In the Wilderness And why the f#%k not? If it's good enough for Obama and Trump, it's good enough for someone who might actually use it to benefit the rest of us.

First up: M4A.

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edg's picture

[Edit: For those who missed the sarcasm in the subject line and the last sentence of the paragraph, I think this poll is garbage and posted it in jest.]

Bloomberg has bought his way into a tie for 3rd place with Warren. According to a national poll reported January 3rd (The Hill). Next thing you know, he'll be polling ahead of Bernie and just a couple points behind Biden.

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Wally's picture

@edg

Biden, Warren and Buttigieg go down, while Bernie keeps Rising!

Now if the other candidates who claim to be progressive who are polling waaaaay under the 15% threshold of getting delegates unite in Solidarity with Bernie, we might get somewhere. Sure seems like Warren is falling into that mix.

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15 users have voted.
edg's picture

@Wally

The margin of error is +/- 4.7%.

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Wally's picture

@edg

I think the trend is apparent across most all the polls including those that are most relevant at this point, namely for Iowa, NH, NV and.... we'll see about SC.

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7 users have voted.

@Wally a national poll which samples only 431 Ds/D-leaning people. Probably also quite a lot of name recognition only baked into that poll. Far and away more important are the valid early state polls.

If trends hold, Bernie stands to finish in the top two in IA and NH, maybe winning IA, probably winning NH. Either strong showing, but especially in IA, would be a boost to his campaign going into NV and SC.

By contrast, Bootajudge or Klobbachair winning or top 2 in IA would mean less -- the Ivory Soap nature of Iowa would be credited in the news analyses as being the major factor, and it would only highlight the lack of AA support these 2 currently have.

I still see SCians as being susceptible to switching their preferences depending on who does well consistently in the prior 3 states. If I'm right -- and I've been right 61% of the time so far -- this would not bode well for Biden.

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3 users have voted.
Wally's picture

@wokkamile @wokkamile

Bernie rising, Biden and Warren dropping. For example:

And here's a better poll:

And again, I'm ready to bet that Bernie will get about 5-10% more votes in every state than projected in polls.

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8 users have voted.

@Wally certain trends -- pos for Bernie, neg for Liz. Just wanted to caution about name rec factor in these nationals -- Biden getting the most benefit obviously.

Bloomberg too with his mass ad campaign putting his name and face out there so few can avoid seeing it. I suspect his real support is closer to 6%, not 11%.

The numbers for Gabbard, Yang and Klobbachair also seem unusually low. The latter two definitely should be showing higher than 2%. But this is what happens when you only poll 431 people.

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4 users have voted.

@Wally just endorsed Warren.

That won't hurt her chances, might slightly slow down her downward trend, perhaps help her somewhat in NV, but not much more. She peaked too early then overconfidently decided to run to the center, which damaged the brand of non-socialist/Bernie alternative progressive politics she'd started with. I don't see her recovering.

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5 users have voted.
Wally's picture

@wokkamile

My first take when I read about Castro's endorsement of Warren this morning was, well, I guess he cut a deal to be VP with her.

But he had less than two percent support when he dropped out and my guess is that most of his supporters' votes will gravitate towards a candidate more centrist than Warren, namely Biden.

I also wish folks would recognize that voting for folks polling under 15% ain't gonna result in any delegates for their candidates and will only result in helping Biden get more delegates in the states he wins. But I doubt too many people are aware of the new rules.

Yea, I'd like to think Warren's out of the running in terms of winning but she can still hurt Bernie by cutting a VP deal under Biden who I've always maintained is the guy to beat. I think the three debates will be crucial leading up to Super Tuesday on March 3rd.

The AA guy here gives a pretty good analysis explaining why Biden has maintained a national polling percentage of about 30% nationally:

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@Wally like a confirmed Biden backer, with his political analysis sifted through a severe Biden filter. KB as usual was very gentle taking issue with him, esp bringing up Biden's supposed FP expertise and his Iraq War vote.

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edg's picture

@Wally

irony (noun) - the expression of one's meaning by using language that normally signifies the opposite, typically for humorous or emphatic effect

Get a grip, dude.

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Wally's picture

@edg

. . . of your original post. Your edit now certainly makes it clearer.

But certain trends are evident when looking at all the polls out there (I look at the RCP listings every day).

Bloomberg is going up although certainly not as high as 11%, at least not anytime soon. And my guess is he's taking away votes from Biden and Warren. These folks remind me of those old Keystone Kops movies where they wind up shooting each other.

And indeed Bernie's moving on up while Biden and Warren are going down.

My main point is that while the corporate polls for the most part are screwed up in all kinds of ways, there remain some general trends that can be discerned when looking at them side-by-side.

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edg's picture

@Wally

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@edg
that poll. I seriously consider a methodological error, perhaps several.

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A PROUD Hillary hater since 1993

edg's picture

@doh1304

since the last poll, and potentially having Bernie close to a dead heat with Biden. Apparently the irony of me posting it was missed by some folks.

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PriceRip's picture

          I am disappointed that

the progressive grassroots group Indivisible is trying to get Democratic presidential candidates to pledge to support the eventual nominee, whoever it ends up being.

because the next logical step would be to ask ordinary voters to do the same.

          If the following does not come to pass:

          If Bernie wins both Iowa and New Hampshire - certainly a distinct possibility - watch out! He might be unstoppable and easily end up as the 2020 Democratic nominee.

          I will be voting for Bernie in the general even it I am required to write-in his name. Please, note: I am not closed minded I am simply a person that has come to a decision based upon past actions and I fully expect the DNC to attempt a repeat of the last primary debacle.

RIP

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"I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I am not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant."
Robert J. McCloskey, U.S. State Department spokesman. From a press briefing during the Vietnam war.

@PriceRip
No oaths of fealty.
If the resulting candidate is not ideal but acceptable, I will vote for him/her.
But never will I vote for a slug like HRC or Biden just because of the (D) after their name.

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20 users have voted.

We are so screwed.

56% DNC - Sanders 23%.
Discouraging.

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7 users have voted.

We are so screwed.

Wally's picture

@The Voice In the Wilderness

Candidates polling under 15%, especially those way below, are not going to meet the threshold to be awarded delegates. And don't forget that in caucus states, Bernie picks up proportionately more votes coz he is the second choice of supporters of other candidates who will have to abandon their candidate's ship, so to speak, if they don't get 15% on the first ballot. In other state primaries, those delegates will be awarded proportionately to candidates who get over 15% of the vote. Those with a higher percentage get alloted more votes (and thus more delgates) So Bernie's doing quite well.

And again, I'd wager that Bernie will be consistently getting 5-10% more of the actual vote than he is polling in most every state.

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