Bernie's Magic Carpet Ride T-9: NY Polling Trend Lines


We're featuring the NY polls every day until the election in 10 days on 19 April. NY has 247 delegates at stake. Plus, the little matter of momentum and narrative.

Bernie's magic carpet hit some turbulence this weekend. His 55.7%-44.3% win in Wyoming wasn't as big as hoped and he lost a bit in the delegate math. And the weekend brought two disappointing polls, although they both had a b it of a thumb on the scale. More below.

Still, here's Steppenwolf with my NY election prediction.

NY Race

magic-carpet-ride-funny-pictures-small.jpg

T-9
At T-9, Clinton's lead widened to 54.3-37.7.
Yikes, another bad poll for Bernie. But hang on a bit. It's Fox/Anderson, which 538.com gives a B rating and a simple average error of 3.4. It uses live callers to both land and cell phones.
Here's the poll report on it's phone mix:

Landline (748) and cellphone (655) numbers were randomly selected from a statewide voter file of registered New York voters using a probability proportionate to size method. This simply means phone numbers are proportionally representative to the number of voters in all regions across the state of New York.http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2016/04/10/fox-news-poll-201...

So a 100 or so more landlines than cell phones. How much of a thumb on the scale is that? We'll see this week when the next batch of polls are released.

Please volunteer for Bernie's NY campaign if you can. You can phonebank and facebank and offer logistical help from out of state. The reddit Bernie volunteering clearing house is at https://www.reddit.com/r/SandersForPresident/new/

T-10
Here's what I said about the Emerson poll:
There has been only one new public poll in NY this week, the Emerson auto-dial poll. It gave Clinton a 56-38 lead, larger than the week-long static poll aggregate of 53-43. Emerson gets a C+ rating from 538.com. I wonder which age bracket self-selects into an auto-phone dialler? Hmm :=) I bet the next poll auto-corrects this little stinker. (Update: Not if the next poll is Fox News! :=)

BTW: I wrote this on 1 April:
"The Bernie campaign turned the corner last night and the magic carpet ride is on. "All right, G! What are we smoking today?" :=) I've watched a whole lotta Bernie speeches. Last night's speech was in a whole different league. Remember the pleas for Bernie to "draw the contrasts" sharper? Heh, heh, heh, if you watched last night's speech, you woulda done the same chair dancing I did. He waited until NYC. Why? Bernie is smarter than us."
I stand by that even more today, T-11 :=)
http://caucus99percent.com/content/bernies-magic-carpet-ride-victory-beg...

Interesting note on NY having no early voting:

This election season, Hillary Clinton is 10-2 in primaries that allow early voting — and one of her two losses came in Vermont, Bernie Sanders’ home state.
Clinton is only 5-3, however, in primaries that disallow early voting but allow in-person absentee voting. Two of those five wins — Massachusetts and Missouri — as well as one of those three losses (Michigan) were virtual ties.
So it’d be more accurate to say that Clinton is 3-2-3 (three wins, two losses, and three ties) in primaries that permit in-person absentee ballots.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/seth-abramson/lack-of-early-voting-could-s...

Heh, heh, heh, early voting also opens the door wide, did I mention wide, shenanigans of the Clintonian-Rovian variety. Not happening in NY, thank you, NY.

National Race

The national trend lines are looking very pretty as Bernie starts to check into the passing lane.

This should be closer than Clinton 48-45. There's a Morning Consult poll in the mix with it's thumb on the scale.

Update: from the Department of The Dogs Bark But The Caravan Marches On
Have a look at this nonsense from Bloomberg. We're gonna keep old Helmut here and laugh at him on 19 April.
http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-04-06/clinton-can-t-get-...

Helmut Norpoth, a political science professor at New York's Stony Brook University, said while Sanders has been “on a roll” lately, Sanders would need to buck historical trends and peel off a significant chunk of those superdelegates to have a shot at turning the contest around. He said New York is one of his last chances to make that case.
“If she lost, that would be a shock and that might really put some pressure on super-delegates,” Norpoth said of the New York primary. Given Clinton's deep political connections in New York, however, and a significant minority voting population more likely to favor Clinton, Norpoth said, Sanders is likely to find that “New York's going to be very difficult.”

Tsk, tsk, tsk, "very difficult"...bit of a faux clutch of faux pearls there, eh, Helmut?

Peace be with us, if we toughen our minds and work hard for Bernie's campaign,
gerrit

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ChemBob's picture

the fact that she has such high polling numbers is inexcusable. Somehow we need to get her negatives and Bernie's positives more into the public eye. Quickly. I've face booked this stuff until my friends are probably sick of me.

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supenau's picture

My FB friends are awfully quiet these days. I try to slow down on the Bernie FB shares, I just keeping finding more to share Wink

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Gerrit's picture

Bernie info and (all you extroverts :=) phonebank like crazy. I'm still serenely confident in a Bernie win in NY, but it's all hands on deck time. Cheers mate,

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Resilience: practical action to improve things we can control.
3D+: developing language for postmodern spirituality.

http://on.msnbc.com/1SspwWx

Here's hoping it embeds. Oh well.

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"Religion is what keeps the poor from murdering the rich."--Napoleon

Gerrit's picture

perfect example of the rigged Dem sytem. And yes, Dems who freak over GOP voter suppression should see the mote in their own eye. Then fix it and keep hammering the GOP. Here's the embed :=)

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Resilience: practical action to improve things we can control.
3D+: developing language for postmodern spirituality.

How did you get it to embed? Bet I didn't upload it. I got a message that c99 didn't support that kind of file.

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"Religion is what keeps the poor from murdering the rich."--Napoleon

Gerrit's picture

Then I pasted that into our code button - That's how I add all video clips. It's all fairy magic as far as I know: all I can manage is monkey-see-monkey-do :=)

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Resilience: practical action to improve things we can control.
3D+: developing language for postmodern spirituality.

I had heard/read about this exchange, but hadn't seen it.
I must say, it REALLY sucks to hear myself say 'Good Point Joe'.
Good ole Joe, testing memes for the GE.
'Well Hillary, Bernie won more states/delegates, you only won because of the supers'
A useful equivalence argument considering the possible outcomes of the republican process.
Yeah we did but you did it too.

I wonder if we'll set the record for the lowest citizen voting percentage this year.
The stink and disgust is high.

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With their hearts they turned to each others heart for refuge
In troubled years that came before the deluge
*Jackson Browne, 1974, Before the Deluge https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7SX-HFcSIoU

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"Religion is what keeps the poor from murdering the rich."--Napoleon

Borkrom's picture

I know some of the recent polls has shown Sanders down by double digits, but those same polls had him down by 30 to 40 points. Therefore, he is closing the gap. There is something in the air- it is the big MO. He is a closer in ever single contest this season and I believe he will shock the world later next Tuesday evening/Wednesday morning.

Go New York- lead the way.

A little bit of reading material regarding this important matter.

http://www.newyorker.com/news/john-cassidy/can-bernie-sanders-upset-hill...

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Gerrit's picture

that are shifting the voter map rapidly. I don't think these last two conservative, outmoded polls capture any of it.

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Resilience: practical action to improve things we can control.
3D+: developing language for postmodern spirituality.

Make of it what you will, but basically hundreds of "surrogate ballots" came in to play in Wyoming, countering bleachers full of Sanders supporters.

Now in general I think caucuses are a bit silly and undemocratic, and I suppose one should use the rules as they are to maximum advantage, but my main point of contention is that the ability to vote like this should be easily and readily available to all citizens, not a partisan effort made to one particular demographic that tends to favor one candidate. Plus there is virtually no oversight over qualifying these types of votes.

Basically Hillary flooded retirement communities with pre-paid surrogate forms which then arrived on caucus day by the hundreds, made up entirely of votes in her favor. But in the end, one more pledged delegate from Wyoming would have raised him from 50% to 57%. It's not going to decide the election.

As for the Emerson poll, they are a C graded polling outfit. Not to say there isn't something that can be learned from the poll, but it should be weighted according to it's grade.

I've donated $200 this month to Bernie's campaign as well as to WFP and DFA, and I also donated $25 to Indypendent.org because local boots on the ground (in addition to phone banking) is the most effective way to go.

https://www.indypendent.org/2016/04/07/heres-what-i-learned-canvassing-f...

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Gerrit's picture

great day. Best wishes,

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Resilience: practical action to improve things we can control.
3D+: developing language for postmodern spirituality.

This from HuffPost will cheer everyone up, chock full of first-hand accounts: After Winning 7 Straight, Sanders Has the Momentum to Upset Clinton in New York and This Story Proves It

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Borkrom's picture

What is funny, is that you hear from Clinton camp- it is her turn, to far behind, do the math, give up and stop fighting. Well guess what a new poll is out today- only 12 points down with likely democratic voters. Moreover, look at the margin of error 5.6 plus 9 percent of no preference.

So let me get this straight 48 points down a few months ago, last week 16 to 18 points behind, now this week (with 8 days to go) 12 points down. Do you notice the trend, please continue the fight, because New York is winnable.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/2016-dem-primary-live-updates-and-results/...

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orlbucfan's picture

I had this tune on a vinyl 45. It has always been one of my faves! The song was a jam cut by a bunch of studio musicians. They had to slap a group name on the recording. So, someone said "Steam." They almost died when it became a major hit. Man, I would love to kiss old Shrill and her ilk goodbye!! It wouldn't be a kiss; it would be a 2X4!! Rec'd!

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Inner and Outer Space: the Final Frontiers.

Gerrit's picture

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Resilience: practical action to improve things we can control.
3D+: developing language for postmodern spirituality.

riverlover's picture

Doors open at 11, the convention center holds 5K, too bad it can't be moved to a larger location. Binghamton yesterday scored 5000 people, a full arena SRO.

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Hey! my dear friends or soon-to-be's, JtC could use the donations to keep this site functioning for those of us who can still see the life preserver or flotsam in the water.

Gerrit's picture

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Resilience: practical action to improve things we can control.
3D+: developing language for postmodern spirituality.

mjsmeme's picture

coronation.jpg

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