Bernie's Magic Carpet Ride T-5: NY Polling Trend Lines


Hello friends, here's today's flight plan for the magic carpet. The averaged polls have Clinton 53-41, a 12-point lead, here at T-5. That sounds bad, eh. There are, fortunately, two counter points to make. More below.

Here's Steppenwolf with my NY election prediction.

Please volunteer for Bernie's NY campaign if you can. You can phonebank and facebank and offer logistical help from out of state. The reddit Bernie volunteering clearing house is at https://www.reddit.com/r/SandersForPresident/new/

NY Race
The first counterpoint is that the catch-up horns are reforming in the NY trend lines. As you can see, Clinton is getting the turbulence now, when it matters. Her trend line is beginning to curl down again, as it did two days ago.
The second is based on the performance of polls in the Dem cycle. The polls have under-counted the Bernie vote more often than not. To me, a 12-point lead at T-5 is really a 6-8 point lead. Plus, the last 48 hours of the races so far have generally seen Bernie close fast and furious. If these poll performances hold for NY, election night could repeat Iowa's thrill ride.
(Then, of course, we might also get lucky with an opponent cracking under severe pressure and have her gaffe away her lead :=)
T-5 vs. T-6
This is why I love trend lines in averaged polling data. The horns formed two days ago (T-7), but yesterday (T-6, 2nd graph below) it looked like Bernie was going down while Clinton appeared to break free. But her momentum ceased and the horns are reforming (T-5), just in time.
T-5 - horns forming again


T-6 - the T-7 horns collapse

BTW: I wrote this on 1 April:
"The Bernie campaign turned the corner last night and the magic carpet ride is on. "All right, G! What are we smoking today?" :=) I've watched a whole lotta Bernie speeches. Last night's speech was in a whole different league. Remember the pleas for Bernie to "draw the contrasts" sharper? Heh, heh, heh, if you watched last night's speech, you woulda done the same chair dancing I did. He waited until NYC. Why? Bernie is smarter than us."
http://caucus99percent.com/content/bernies-magic-carpet-ride-victory-beg...
magic-carpet-ride-funny-pictures-small.jpg

National Race
The national trend lines are looking pretty, but have been stuck this past week. Bernie started to check into the passing lane, but a series of sniffy polls are keeping him from passing.

Except for an IPSOS/Reuters poll up to 13/04 that has Bernie 49-48 (MoE ±2.7%). Sadly, this was an internet poll where 538 gives IPSOS only a C+ rating.
CBS (B rating) had a stinker out ending 12/04, which gave Clinton 50-44. This was a live phone poll with a posted MoE of 3.0%. However, 538 has their simple average error rate at 4.8% So we need not worry about that one overly much.
Fox/Anderson et al. (B rating) has a poll up to 13/04 that has Clinton 48-46. It was a live phone poll with a posted MoE of 3.0%. Fox/Anderson's simple average error rate at 538 is 3.4% so this on is in line with their history.

So there's reason for optimism in the national race from the averaged polls trend lines.

I look forward to your thoughts, data, and opinions.
Peace be with us, if we toughen our minds and work hard for Bernie's campaign,
gerrit

PS: From the Department of The Dogs Bark But The Caravan Marches On
Let's remember this nonsense from Bloomberg. We're gonna keep old Helmut here and laugh at him on 19 April.
http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-04-06/clinton-can-t-get-...

Helmut Norpoth, a political science professor at New York's Stony Brook University, said while Sanders has been “on a roll” lately, Sanders would need to buck historical trends and peel off a significant chunk of those superdelegates to have a shot at turning the contest around. He said New York is one of his last chances to make that case.
“If she lost, that would be a shock and that might really put some pressure on super-delegates,” Norpoth said of the New York primary. Given Clinton's deep political connections in New York, however, and a significant minority voting population more likely to favor Clinton, Norpoth said, Sanders is likely to find that “New York's going to be very difficult.”

Tsk, tsk, tsk, "very difficult"...bit of a faux clutch of faux pearls there, eh, Helmut?

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Borkrom's picture

For working on and posting this information daily- I really appreciate it. Moreover, I look for it, so you have at least one supporter and follower of your work- for what that is worth Smile

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Gerrit's picture

not the noise. We know polling is historically bad these days, but it is all we have as data. It can be useful, like dynamite is, if we handle it with caution :=) I find it easy to get lost in the daily alarums about foul play and trickery and shenanigans. Focusing on the averaged trend lines, seen in context, helps me to drown out the day's noise. Thanks for supporting it, mate. I appreciate it.

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Resilience: practical action to improve things we can control.
3D+: developing language for postmodern spirituality.

riverlover's picture

in Central NY, the online polls are all Bernie. Maybe the Clinton crowd isn't speaking up. Fingers crossed, phonebanking on Sunday as part of the Million Calls movement. Power from the people! na-na-na, goodbye!

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Hey! my dear friends or soon-to-be's, JtC could use the donations to keep this site functioning for those of us who can still see the life preserver or flotsam in the water.

Gerrit's picture

Hey, Goodbye" at the top of our lungs deep into election night some time :=) I do remember some more colourful lyrics from my salad days too!

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Resilience: practical action to improve things we can control.
3D+: developing language for postmodern spirituality.

Raggedy Ann's picture

I hope the gap continues to close! Time's a wasting!

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"The “jumpers” reminded us that one day we will all face only one choice and that is how we will die, not how we will live." Chris Hedges on 9/11

Gerrit's picture

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Resilience: practical action to improve things we can control.
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orlbucfan's picture

Thank you, Gerrit, for your analyses. I am a Poll skeptic, but sometimes they get it right. The Bernster will get a definite bump from last night's debate. Shrill/Shill badly stumbled according to all the reports I've read. The innertubz have got a lot of NY voters on full alert for voter fraud/suppression. I am a long-time resident of Florida. I am all too familiar with voter fraud, suppression and closed primaries. NY Berniacs have an advantage we Florida fans didn't. Time. They are voting next Tuesday, 4/19. We had to vote on 3/15. So, they could get their act together regarding closed primary voting for Democrats. They are already on guard for cheating, though usually it's the Repukes pulling it.

Between BNR and here, there are people from Canada and Australia following this race. They aren't expats. That is really cool.

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Inner and Outer Space: the Final Frontiers.

Gerrit's picture

your comments. I'm agreed on all of them. Yes, we traditional American allies are most interested in this election, for we also have a lot at stake. We're all rooting hard for Bernie and are cheering on all you folks who support him in his campaign. We sure think Bernie would make a fine, fine leader of the free world (or what's left of it.)

BTW, your handle says you're a Bucs fan. My son is a huge Bucs fan: when he was little, the Bucs were always in the playoffs -the Sapp era - and he loved the pirate ship and the cannons :=) So red is his favourite colour and he is real pleased with last year's turnaround. (But why fire Lovie?)
Cheers mate, but Go Pack Go!

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Resilience: practical action to improve things we can control.
3D+: developing language for postmodern spirituality.