Analysis of Flynn's guilty plea
Tracy Beanz, whom I think is the best researcher on the web politically has presented a detailed analysis of the Flynn guilty plea. (26:49). Yes, the video is long but well worth watching--at least once.
Here are the important points I gleaned from the video:
1. The list of charges by the FBI concerning Flynn lying to them was written up on December 13, 2016 but Flynn's voluntary FBI interview did not occur until December 24, 2016.
2. There was no logical reason for Flynn to lie (including omissions) to the FBI when almost everything he did with Kislyak was legal; e.g., requesting a non-escalation of tensions between Russia and the US after Obama's latest sanctions (and evictions of 35 diplomats). This would seem to be laudable, defusing a potentially highly inflammatory round of escalating actions, which would have been gleefully aided and abetted by D.R. (Diabolical Rodent) warhawks.
3. The worst penalties Flynn might receive under this plea agreement's terms is 6 months imprisonment and a $9500 fine. The statutory range of penalties however extends to 5 years imprisonment and $250,000 fine--but Flynn gets a wrist slap only.
4. Flynn is given complete immunity for his illegal (because undeclared) lobbying activities on behalf of Turkey.
5. Because this is a guilty plea, Flynn does not have a felony conviction, and, hence, is not legally a felon.
6. Flynn is required to be a "covert asset" of US investigative agencies, including FBI, CIA, NSA and local place forces (e.g., states' attorneys, NYPD, etc.)
7. In return for Flynn's cooperation, including truthfulness and completeness, he is given immunity on improprieties about which he testifies in future legal actions.
The deal was signed by Robert Mueller and Flynn. The action occurred before Trump's inauguration, although the Special Prosecutor appointment was imminent.
The result of this plea bargain is confusing to me. On the surface, it appears to benefit the Clintonites/Democrats. But the penalties are so minimal it amounts to no harm done for Flynn. And Flynn now gets a free ride if he spills the beans about Obama etc. So, I am not comprehending why Trump did not push for Mueller's removal in the early phases, especially with Mueller's Comey, HSBC, Uranium 1 ties. I cannot believe that Trump conspired with Mueller, before the actual Flynn probe, to soften the blow (considerably, too) in order to use Flynn as a heat-seeking missile against HRC, BHO, etc. I just don't believe Trump is that smart. Yet, from the details now emerging, it does look as if the situation is working out in Trump's favor.
One possibility for allowing Mueller to stay as SP is that Mueller has plenty of his own legal jeopardy to consider. Particularly, is his role as HRC's bagman in the Uranium 1 deal. There is no statute of limitations on treason. Hence Mueller is wise to mute his anti-Trump actions.
Recent events, such as the demotion of Andrew McCabe from number 2 at FBI are indicative of the waning Clintonite support in the Deep State--yet even this does not explain the Flynn plea bargain.
Comments
This is a very good analysis
…and I found it thoroughly entertaining, as well. Thanks, Ed.
You hit the major points in your summary, and I would agree. In addition, I found the Executive Order from Obama odd both in language and timing. Can't put my finger on it, yet, but we did learn that he did not mention Russia and kept it very generic. It was probably written to get a specific spying warrant.
Reading the entire document made it perfectly clear that everything that Michael Flynn did related to the Trump administration was perfectly legal and perfectly normal during the transition of any administration. He committed no crime other than "lying" to the FBI about specifics pertaining to these perfectly legal actions. There seems to be an understanding that Flynn knew exactly what the FBI knew, so the fact that he lied is bizarre.
(Once more the dreams of the center-right Dems are dashed. The only casualty: Brian Ross from ABC News got suspended for getting them all lathered up with misinformation.)
Two more points:
The analyst showed a great deal of emotion regarding the lightness of the sentence, which could amount to nothing at all. She was stunned at that. (Poor Martha had to go to the Big House for the same offense.) Finally she blurts out "That's nothing like what the wopped George Papadopoulos with for doing the same thing! Wow." Papadopoulos, a 30-year-old former Trump adviser, had pleaded guilty to lying to the FBI about his contacts with Russia.
Flynn was granted an awful lot of immunity in this plea agreement, across all manner of activities. All this if he agrees to help the FBI find some more crimes — not necessarily related to Trump. I imagine someone like Flynn knows about a lot of crimes.
____________________
The political system is what it is because the People are who they are. — Plato
I think it's hard to listen to the video for me
So here are the text documents to read:
Michael Flynn Plea Agreement Documents.
May be I read them and then listen to what I am supposed to listen to. Sigh.
Thanks mimi.
A truth of the nuclear age/climate change: we can no longer have endless war and survive on this planet. Oh sh*t.
Tracy Beanz is whom
I have been watching for analysis of Q anon posts too because I believe she does her homework before posting.
Do I hear the sound of guillotines being constructed?
“Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable." ~ President John F. Kennedy
Thanks for the tip, gulfgal.
Someday we should have a pot-luck essay where everyone brings their three favorite eavesdropping websites (for lack of a better word). Wait, the Pot Luck of Webly Delights?
Anyway, I was wondering how you were getting on with Q. I got overwhelmed early on, which happens sometimes. It's like a Wonderland where all the participants are playing the part of Alice. In 4chan, no less, lol. I would love to hear about your adventures.
____________________
The political system is what it is because the People are who they are. — Plato
Q anon posts
I do not go to 4chan myself because I would be eaten alive over there LOL, but rely upon summaries done by others. This is the most recent summary sheet that I have been using. I was using a different summary sheet previously, but lost the link when I had a bad computer crash in November. The old sheet went back to the first post while the current link only goes back to late November.
I also located something that has all of Q's posts from the very beginning. It is called The Book of Q. It only goes through late November but there is some interesting stuff in it.
From what I can gather, the last post Q made on 4chan was around December 1. I had heard rumors that someone claiming to be Q was posting on 8chan(?). I do remember that Q had posted in late November that he would not be posting again, but has since briefly returned after that particular post.
I honestly do not know what to make of all this, but some of things that Q has posted have since transpired after his posts. And based upon at least one photograph that he posted during Trump's Asia trip, it appears that he is an insider, if this is not just an elaborate LARP.
I tend to believe that Q is feeding us scraps of the truth along with some propaganda. Only time will tell who Q is and how much on the up and up he is.
Do I hear the sound of guillotines being constructed?
“Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable." ~ President John F. Kennedy
If *this* analysis is correct, even the “Left-Green-alternative”
press in Germany is totally barking up the wrong tree by adopting uncritically the U.S. MSM standard and superficial anti-Trump line.
https://www.taz.de/Russland-Ermittlungen-in-den-USA/!5467221/
But surely you knew it was a theatrical production
…from the beginning.
Germany pulled a "me too" early on in reference to Russia interferring with their elections, but they had to come clean and admit that wasn't the case. I was under the impression that most nations are laughing the Russia gambit off. At the moment, Putin is the most respected leader in the world.
Maybe they are just laughing at our anctics. Or maybe laughing that the US election system can be totally hacked with $100,000 and 1,000 Russian basement-dwelling geeks.
It's not like anyone is appalled.
It appears to me, from the forensic evidence and the financial evidence that we do have, that the entire hoax was concocted in DNC headquarters by CrowdStrike. And, man, did they ever cui bono off the scheme.
* They've pulled in a cool quarter-billion dollars, so far. (I keep a running tab.)
[Edited for the record to add *]
____________________
The political system is what it is because the People are who they are. — Plato
Haha, what an image!
Never underestimate the power of cheetohs,vodka,borscht, and a strong basement internet connection! /s
Joking aside, your comment led me to look for info on internet these days
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_in_Russia
A truth of the nuclear age/climate change: we can no longer have endless war and survive on this planet. Oh sh*t.
Wow. That's a crazy stat.
That would mean a huge number of people outside Russia was speaking Russian online, given Russia's modest penetration of access. I think I'm missing something.
____________________
The political system is what it is because the People are who they are. — Plato
yep. n/t
the little things you can do are more valuable than the giant things you can't! - @thanatokephaloides. On Twitter @wink1radio. (-2.1) All about building progressive media.
Please help me figure out No. 5.
A guilty plea leads to a conviction.
I suppose Flynn can purge it with appropriate cooperation to ultimately get it dismissed? Sort of a deferred adjudication/finding of guilt upon meeting certain standards of behavior during the period of probation?
Where in the video does she discuss this?
Anyway, I think Flynn might hurt the Democrats more than the Trump administration.
At least that is my fervent hope.
"We'll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American public believes is false." ---- William Casey, CIA Director, 1981
The Dems clearly "lost" by the terms of the plea
This is the outcome which may be extremely advantageous to the Repugnants, especially Trump. This does not benefit the Dims one bit.
This is Flynn's permanent stay-out-of-jail card. He is now on record of being a coerced Republican rat--the term was "covert operative" of multiple agencies.
The thing to glean from Flynn's plea bargain
Nothing but sheer kabuki. If he was going to give them anything, they would have charged him for more than lying to the FBI. Mueller exists now for two purposes: to keep Trump in line for as long as they can with the bs investigation, and for the media to have a nice shiny object to fixate on while our duoploy screws us over.
"You can't just leave those who created the problem in charge of the solution."---Tyree Scott
Steven, I believe you have missed the point
As I mentioned in my essay, Mueller could face treason charges for his part in Uranium one--he brought US uranium samples to Russia while HRC was secretary of state, for Rosatom to inspect before completing the deal. There is no statute of limitations on treason. Mueller's neck is in the noose and he knows it. He doesn't now, and never did, have the power base of the Clintons. If he starts acting up against Trump, it isn't difficult to see an indictment come his way for treason. He is a Trump captive--NOT the other way around.
I can work with that thesis.
____________________
The political system is what it is because the People are who they are. — Plato
Why did Flynn lie?
Could it have been because the FBI leaks like a sieve and he thought they couldn't handle the truth? Could it be because anti-Russia hysteria was in full swing by the time he was interviewed and he was trying to protect the incoming administration?
My feeling is that Flynn's lie was prearranged
along with the pre-arranged plea bargain. He has been converted from a pseudo-hapless dupe to a very potent untouchable--provided he plays ball. Mueller has nothing left with which to bother Flynn but Flynn probably has plenty left to bother the Dims.
I agree
with this and the previous comment. Those 2,500 sealed indictments are far too many to be Trump associates.
Do I hear the sound of guillotines being constructed?
“Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable." ~ President John F. Kennedy
Haven't watched the video yet,
but if you plead guilty to a felony, you've been convicted of a felony. Most felons are convicted via guilty plea rather than trial.
Emmet
Did they say "they were not filing the plea"?
Until certain conditions were met? And they were not obligated to file it at all.
If they did, does that leave a side door open to dropping the charges altogether?
____________________
The political system is what it is because the People are who they are. — Plato
Listening to all JDs who got degrees watching Law and Order
When I expressed confusion over why such big fish such as Manafort and Flynn were not charged with some crimes related to "collusion", the answer came back from establishment democrats that Mueller has flipped Flynn and others, and I should shut up because I didn't watch Law and Order and know how these things work. There is certainly a previous belief that all those indicted were major cogs in the wheel of conspiracy and collusion. Seems like some guys help murder somebody, but they get off with minor charges just to get the guy who pulled the trigger (even though prosecutors have solid evidence on the conspirators).
Looks to me like Mueller will hand down a few more indictments, but absolutely nothing will relate to the charge that pre-election, Trump colluded with the Russians on DNC server, etc. There is no silver bullet so far to justify impeachment which I suppose is the holy grail for democrats.
The Russia-gate hysteria continues.
Yep, it does.
...
A truth of the nuclear age/climate change: we can no longer have endless war and survive on this planet. Oh sh*t.
Saw this happening on April 15.
That was the day the Women's March sponsored protest occurred demanding Trump release his tax returns. I watched streaming video of several marches, and saw not one poster or interview that spoke about the current unfair tax system. No raising of consciousness over the tax system and income equality. All about being simply anti-Trump with nothing else.
lol, Mr Webster.
I thought they got their JDs playing Ropes and Ladders, the board game.
____________________
The political system is what it is because the People are who they are. — Plato
OT but here's a fun Sunday reading list suggestion:
Subheadings of the article:
Edited to highlight text
A truth of the nuclear age/climate change: we can no longer have endless war and survive on this planet. Oh sh*t.
I love Nina's work
She guided me through Gowdy's World™ and Hillary's emails, so I did not have to linger or waste a moment of my time.
Regarding this comment of Nina's:
She has been wrong about more than "some small aspect of an overall story." She takes risks with overall premises. I like that. So do physicists. Then they go back and fix it. But as she says, she does not sculpt the facts. She may weight them differently to fit the narrative, but that's fair.
____________________
The political system is what it is because the People are who they are. — Plato
I think this plea deal is theater
and is a cover for something bigger. Rumor has it that Flynn has a list of persons in the government who are connected with the pedophile rings. I have not seen any documentation of that, but I have read it at various sources.
Right now the sealed indictments connected to the Mueller investigation total somewhere around 2,500, far too many to be connected just to Trump. There may be some ala Manafort and Gates, but there is something much bigger than just the Trump campaign in those indictments. Also the demotion of Andrew Mc Cabe at the FBI signals that some may be connected to long term investigations by the FBI that were quashed by Comey and Mc Cabe. Remember Mc Cabe's wife received a huge campaign donation from the Clinton campaign toward her run for the Virginia state senate.
After being suppressed by the Obama Administrations's politics, I believe that the FBI has been turned loose to actually do their job and what we may be seeing may the results of that. All I know is that 2,500 sealed indictments is huge and did not come about over night. The work on them had to be in the making for a very long time.
Regarding Tracy Beanz. I agree with Alligator Ed that she is one of the best and most thorough researchers on YouTube. Although I do not always agree with her politics (she is conservative/libertarian), I find her posts to be excellent and among the best researched around. She has been my go to person regarding the Q anon posts. Even though I have been following the posts as they appear listed on a summary sheet that I have bookmarked, I always learn much more after listening to her analysis.
I know mimi said she had trouble listening to her, but I find her voice extremely easy to listen to.
Do I hear the sound of guillotines being constructed?
“Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable." ~ President John F. Kennedy
Searched for more info on 2500 indictments.
Not much luck. Help?
A truth of the nuclear age/climate change: we can no longer have endless war and survive on this planet. Oh sh*t.
Not definitive, but I had read previously
that the numbers were a couple of hundred and then they kept jumping up until recently the quoted number is 2,500. So I am wrong to take that number as definitive and should probably correct my posts until I find something that backs that number up.
The number of sealed federal indictments is much higher than normal. This Twitter thread goes into that. Scroll down and perhaps this will help.
Do I hear the sound of guillotines being constructed?
“Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable." ~ President John F. Kennedy
I thought about this and realized….
It's harder to buffer spoken statements in a second language that in your native tongue. The context keeps falling away.
(Watching a non-captioned foreign film after a couple of shots of of whiskey is a known exception to that rule. Spontaneous fluency has been reported.)
____________________
The political system is what it is because the People are who they are. — Plato
What brand works for you, Pluto?
The establishment will protect itself.
Flynn might want to go after Obama, Hillary etc., but that won't happen. The 'bipartisan' political establishment will protect itself.
Flynn probably got a light deal for promising NOT to deliver what he knows on Obama, Hillary etc. There will certainly not be anything concerning the Uranium One deal.
The 'bipartisan' political establishment (i.e. the swamp) will always protect itself.
Mike Taylor
You might be right, Mike
but Trump is no ordinary swamper. Nobody knows what he will do--not even 4-10-20.
I have said before
I think Trump is draining the existing swamp and replacing it with one of his own. There is a Deep State war going on and it appears Trump's faction is winning right now. Meanwhile we stand by helplessly while what little of our social safety net and personal freedoms continue to be gutted.
Do I hear the sound of guillotines being constructed?
“Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable." ~ President John F. Kennedy
My understanding
of Gen. Flynn begins and ends with these two documents; his 2012 report as Director of DIA, and his comments to Hersh: