The Treaty of Versailles 2.0 or Minsk Agreement 3.0?

Was Trump and team played to sign the MOU at Versailles? After all that treaty ended WWI but set the stage for WWII. Pepe explains in the first clip below the signing was moved up to Thursday and the location changed because Mossad planned the assassinate the Iranian delegation in Switzerland. Most people never heard of the Minsk Agreements (there were two) which both Merkel and Hollande (guarantors of the agreement) claimed was a delaying tactic to allow Ukraine to arm, recruit, and build defensive structures. So my question today is the MOU designed to delay in order to regroup, created to lead to another Iran war, or a genuine effort at peace. Whatever the purpose of the MOU this week it was signed, sealed and delivered...

Most pundits think the dire economic consequences of shutting down the Strait was finally communicated to Trump, and he was forced to concede to Iran's demands.
What Triggered Trump to Make the Deal with Iran?

So the question we ought to ask is why did Donald Trump blink and accept the proposal that Iran proffered way back in April?
I think there are several reasons, but the principal one is that the US is running out of oil, which means Trump will not be able to artificially suppress the price of gasoline. US strategic oil reserves have fallen to their lowest level since 1983, reports CNN. The decline comes amid continued drawdowns to mitigate the impact of the conflict with Iran. Reserves have dropped to 340.3 million barrels, last seen during the Reagan administration, which was still building the stockpile. US daily consumption is 20 to 21 million barrels in 2026, which means the reserve can supply 17 days of gasoline, which falls on July 1st.
Today, my dear friend Pepe Escobar, reported that Donald Trump was briefed over the weekend — perhaps by Secretary of Energy Chris Wright — that the rapidly draining Strategic Petroleum Reserve would be exhausted within weeks. Who knew that Donald Trump would confirm this during his press conference announcing the deal with Iran? Trump told reporters today that oil reserves would have run out in four weeks if the Strait of Hormuz had not been reopened. His exact words were:
We run out of reserves at about four weeks. You know, there are reserves all over the world, and we would really run out, and there’ll be a time when you wouldn’t be able to get it.
There you have it… Trump and his key economic and energy advisors realize that the US economy could go off the cliff before the end of summer, which would certainly eliminate any chance that the Republicans would retain control of the Senate and the House.

Of course Israel is trying to scuttle the deal as they continue attacking Lebanon as well as Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza. Will it hold?
The first point of the MoU clearly lays out that the attacks on Lebanon must stop...
1. The Islamic Republic of Iran, the United States of America, and their allies in the current war, by signing this memorandum of understanding, declare an immediate and permanent cessation of military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon, and commit not to initiate any war or military operation against each other henceforth, to refrain from threats or use of force against each other, and to guarantee the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon. The final agreement will confirm the permanent end of the war on all fronts, including Lebanon, and the other provisions of this clause.

Versailles Memorandum, US faces Minsk Agreement dilemma

(37 min) Trump just signed the Versailles memorandum on Iran, and Alex Christoforou and Alexander Mercouris break down why the deal looks more like a forced retreat than the win the White House is selling. From the failed sea blockade and dwindling oil reserves to Trump's fallout with Netanyahu and the eerie parallels to the 2015 Minsk agreement with Russia and Ukraine, The Duran lays out why this memorandum is only the opening move, not the ending. Has Iran really won, or is Washington setting up the next, bigger war in the Middle East?
00:00:00 Versailles signing of the Iran memorandum
00:02:18 Why this is only the start of negotiations
00:04:42 How Mark Levin and Ben Shapiro would view this deal
00:06:12 Comparing this memorandum to the 2015 Minsk agreement
00:07:19 Regime change ambitions before the conflict began
00:09:15 Why the US sea blockade waiting game failed
00:11:03 Trump admits the US was down to four weeks of oil
00:12:11 Trump's anger turns on Netanyahu
00:14:09 The big admission from the G7 press conference
00:16:25 Why neocons will treat this as a chance to rearm
00:19:11 Iran has won a battle but not the war
00:20:37 Russian advice behind Iran's wartime decisions
00:23:53 Why Iran took risks Russia never would
00:28:25 The symbolism of signing at Versailles
00:33:34 Macron's plan to box Trump into the next conflict

War On Iran: – Trump: “It Really Probably Is Unconditional Surrender”
On Wednesday, June 17 2026, Trump signed a Memorandum of Understanding with Iran in Versailles. That palace has seen a lot of defeats.
Professor Mearsheimer was quite explicit in his latest talk with Judge Napolitano: Trump must shut the war down, whatever it politically might cost, to save the economy and his presidency.
After he had launched the war he had to surrender, unconditionally, to prevent a global depression (which still may well happen). It may still take while, and maybe even another round of fighting, until that really sinks in.

Larry and Pepe have started a new YT channel, Transition Protocol (their first one was taken down at the request of Rubio.
Why Iran US Signing Moves to VERSAILLES -Is US–Iran Signing Vanishing?

(27 min) The US–Iran signing was supposed to happen in Geneva. Instead it reportedly moved to Versailles overnight — and according to sources cited in this episode, the reason was a credible assassination threat against Iran's delegation. Pepe Escobar and Zulfiqar Ali break down what their sources at the table are saying about the Iran–US MOU, the Strait of Hormuz red line, Israel's continued bombing of Lebanon, and a reported Monday deadline that could trigger Iranian retaliation within 72 hours.
In this special edition of Transition Protocol, we connect the dots between Iran's claimed “strategic victory,” the threat to close the Strait of Hormuz (and what that means for global oil prices), Iran's reported readiness to pursue a North Korea–style nuclear path, and Pakistan's elevated role as power broker — backed in the background by China and Russia. We also examine why sources describe Trump as boxed in, and what choice the White House faces this weekend.
Source note: Pepe Escobar is a veteran geopolitical analyst covering Eurasia and the multipolar world order; Zulfiqar Ali brings reporting sourced through Pakistani and Iranian channels. Some claims in this episode are source-based and developing — we flag verification status on-screen and present them as attributed reporting, not confirmed fact. Transition Protocol is a serious, source-driven geopolitical analysis channel.
•0:00 — Why the Iran–US Signing Vanished
•0:45 — Versailles, Not Geneva: The Hidden Reason
•02:30 — Why This Is NOT a Routine Ceasefire Story
•03:18 — The Assassination Threat at the Table
•04:48 — Iran's Red Line: “We Break It Twice as Hard”
•07:12 — Why the Supreme Leader Almost Refused to Sign
•09:34 — Is the MOU Dead on Arrival? The 72-Hour Window
•11:10 — Zulfiqar's Sources: What Iran's New Leadership Decided
•12:39 — The “North Korea Path” on Nukes
•15:09 — Pakistan's Elevated Role + The Hormuz Threat
•17:09 — Why Washington Can't Accept the New Chessboard
•20:08 — How Pakistani Intelligence Intercepted the Plot
•22:14 — Trump as a “Caged Animal”
•24:11 — The World Has Changed: Final Word

Pepe's articles this week:
What the Iran-U.S. MoU Is All About
War on Iran reshapes the ‘War of Connectivity Corridors’

US-Iran talks to kick off Sunday in Switzerland, says Pakistan
Planned negotiations come amid tensions over Israeli attacks in Lebanon and Iran’s announced closure of Hormuz again.
Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman, Esmaeil Baghaei, confirmed on Saturday that an Iranian delegation, including Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, and other senior officials, was heading to Switzerland. Iran’s state broadcaster reported late on Saturday night that the country’s negotiating team had arrived in the Swiss city of Zurich.
In Washington, JD Vance’s press secretary said the US vice president had also departed for Switzerland on Saturday. In comments cited by the Reuters news agency, Vance said he would only be able to stay in the country for a day or two, but expressed hope that progress could be made on both the Lebanon ceasefire and the issue of Iran’s nuclear programme.
The planned meeting on Sunday will start technical-level negotiations towards a final US-Iran deal.

Here's the latest from Larry Johnson (last night)

(51 min) Iran Closes Hormuz AND Ends Israel's Combat Ops - US Rushes to Talks!
The Strait offers Iran a choke hold on the global economy. They are using it to their advantage to achieve their goals.
Larry adds details in his article:
Iran Warns Washington: Put a Collar on Israel or Else

Here’s the summary from GeoPolitics Prime:
At the heart of Ali al‑Taher hill, overlooking Nabatieh in southern Lebanon, lies a 1‑kilometer underground tunnel complex housing a command center and strategic weapons depots.
Known as the Imad‑4 facility, this Hezbollah fortress has become an obsession for the IDF.
What happened:
-Israeli forces attempted a night incursion toward the base — the 6th failed attempt since the ceasefire began.
-Hezbollah struck an IDF tank from the elite 52nd Brigade (home to Israel’s most advanced armor) roughly 300 meters from the base entrance.
-4 soldiers killed, including Lt. Col. Ben Simhon, commander of the 52nd Battalion.
-The tank remains unrecovered — a rare and humiliating occurrence. In 2006, the IDF would tow damaged vehicles immediately. Today, the battlefield conditions on Ali Taher hill make recovery impossible.
Why it matters:
-Hezbollah used an advanced tactic: mounting a MILAN anti‑tank missile warhead on an FPV drone. This is a new evolution in their drone warfare.
-The MILAN is an old French‑German ATGM, typically outdated — but as a drone payload, it’s a cost‑effective tank killer.
-The hill is a no‑man’s‑land with minimal cover. Defense is conducted from surrounding positions — and Hezbollah is holding.
Israel’s northern push is not going to plan — and Hezbollah’s underground network is proving impenetrable.
By the time you read this we will have an inkling of whether or not Israel is going to follow Donald Trump’s orders or continue to tell him to, “Fuck off!” As I discussed in my previous piece, Trump has leverage over Israel because of the Zionist state’s dependence on US military and financial assistance. The question now is whether Trump is controlled by the Zionists or does he still possess a spine strong enough to resist the Zionist bullying?

Time will tell in Israel can be restrained. As of Thursday Bibi was uncooperative.
Netanyahu Reaffirms Israel Won’t Withdraw From Lebanon Despite US-Iran MoU
The Israeli military on Thursday also made clear it was not withdrawing from Lebanon and published a new map showing an expanded occupation zone.

Israel is putting a full court press on US propaganda and lobbying...
FARA Docs: Israel is Spying On Millions Of Christian Americans In Their Churches
Newly released FARA documents with the DOJ reveal that the Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs paid U.S. company “Show Faith By Works” $4.1 million to carry out a massive, covert, digital surveillance and geofencing operation targeting Christian communities in multiple states, including at “every major church” in California, Arizona, Nevada, and Colorado.

Israeli Desperation Leading to Enormous Sums for Lobbying, Media Manipulation
Netanyahu blames the loss of support on TikTok and social media writ large (not his government’s own policies) and is spending hundreds of millions of dollars to pursue media management and pro-Israel advocacy in the U.S. On a parallel track, Israel is seeking unprecedented integration with the U.S. military and its intelligence agencies — which would mean co-production on weapons, technology and sharing of sensitive intel. Experts say this is why Israel has been insisting it doesn’t “need” the 10-year agreement that provides Israel $3.8 billion annually in military aid. This would shift that aid to the places that don’t require the same oversight and overt American buy-in.

Israel’s ‘Sabotage’ of Peace Agreement Working Again as Iran Closes Strait of Hormuz in Response to Lebanon Assault
Israel’s attempts to sabotage the peace agreement between the United States and Iran appear to be working again, with its relentless attacks on Lebanon reportedly prompting Iran to once again close the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday, mere days after it reopened.
...Within an hour of the agreement taking effect, Israel began carrying out additional attacks across southern Lebanon and the Bekaa Valley that continued through the night and into Saturday. One strike, on a three-story apartment building in the town of Barish in the Tyre district, reportedly killed a mother, father, and their two children, while wounding 12 others and leaving seven trapped beneath rubble.
Israel said its continued attacks were in response to Hezbollah’s firing of projectiles at Israeli forces in southern Lebanon, which Hezbollah said it launched as Israel attempted to further expand its occupation toward the strategically important Ali al-Taher hills “under the cover of the ceasefire.”

Here's Tony Aguilar explaining the situation in Lebanon

(57 min) Netanyahu Orders IDF to Halt Lebanon Operations Amid Iranian Pressure

Alastair explains how quickly the world is changing...

(58 min) Alastair Crooke: A New Middle East Is Born & NATO Attacks Moscow
Alastair Crooke discusses the defeat of the US and Israel, and NATO's attack on Moscow. Crooke is a former British diplomat and the Founder of the Conflicts Forum based in Beirut. He was formerly an advisor on Middle East issues to Javier Solana, the EU Foreign Policy Chief.
From Alastair's substack Conflictsforum:
'Israel Picking Up the Pieces of its Deep-Seated Hubris’

The Iran-US de-escalation framework has been signed. As always, getting a framework agreed is one thing, but preserving it from disruptive actors or malicious distortion of the text is quite another. Who knows how long it will survive intact? The MoU nonetheless constitutes an important phase — albeit one leg — in a long journey ahead for Iran. The Agreement however, may also prompt wider geo-economic ‘plate’ shifts.

Fellow diplomat Chas Freeman agrees...

He sees changing global dynamics...

(45 min) Chas Freeman: Israel’s Agenda Suffers MAJOR Collapse

The Ukraine proxy war continues to grow as the EU supplies hundreds of thousands of drone which are being used to strike Russia.

Black Rain Falls on Moscow After Ukrainian Drone Attack Hits Oil Refinery

Russia's foreign minister warned of a heavy response to the attack, which marked one of the largest on the Russian capital of the war
...According to the Russian news agency TASS, more than 190 Ukrainian drones were downed in the Moscow region, part of a swarm of 555 drones that were intercepted across Russia, one of the largest Ukrainian attacks on Russian territory of the war. At least one person was killed in Russia’s southern Rostov region.
...More escalations appear to be coming as Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that in response to Thursday’s drone, Russia will launch strikes in Ukraine on a “mass scale.”
Ukraine is known to use intelligence from the US and NATO for its long-range drone attacks inside Russia, and the US has helped build up Ukraine’s drone industry, meaning that such attacks always risk a potential escalation between Russia and NATO.

Will Russia target the EU drone manufacturing facilities?

Alex Krainer suggests not, but he also said Trump wouldn't be so foolish as to attack Iran...

Alex Krainer: The Decline of the West & War Against Russia (57 min)

Russia sounds ready to respond to me...
Kremlin warns NATO of ‘devastating response’ following massive Ukrainian drone attack in Moscow
Moscow’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs warned on 18 June that an attack by any NATO country would instigate a “decisive and devastating” retaliation, following what has been described as the largest Ukrainian air attack on Russia in years.

More weapons to Ukraine, focus on war. Putin focus on stability

(44 min) Zelensky secured fresh weapons licensing pledges and Macron declared Ukraine is advancing, Mercouris and Alex Christoforou break down why the West's deterrence against Russia may be collapsing even as Moscow continues grinding toward victory on the front line. The Duran unpacks the G7 outcomes, the truth behind Russia's drone war, and whether Putin's red lines still mean anything, so what does it really take to shake a country that refuses to panic?
00:00:00 G7 Summit Recap and Project Ukraine
00:00:33 Zelensky Begging Tour and Weapons Licensing Deal
00:02:10 Macron Claims Trump Aligned With Europe on Ukraine
00:04:02 Mercouris Returns From Russia Quiet US Russia Dialogue
00:06:43 Will Licensed Weapons Production Ever Actually Happen
00:08:08 Drone Attacks on Moscow and Civilian Casualties
00:10:39 Putins Red Line on Long Range Missiles
00:11:26 Mercouris Reports From Pskov Near the Front
00:12:40 Russia Today Is a Country at Peace
00:16:12 Comparing Drone Mood to 1970s IRA Bombings in London
00:19:02 The Pre 2014 Russia Red Line Explained
00:22:05 Why Russia Has Not Conscripted Its Population
00:25:33 Putins Advice to Trump Dont Trust the Europeans
00:32:30 Has Russia Lost Its Deterrence Against the West
00:38:11 The Real Goal Is Regime Change in Russia
00:43:06 Closing Thoughts and Channel Links

The Russian military continues to advance. Ukraine's drone attacks are a response.

(53 min) Stanislav Krapivnik: Russia's Offensive Gains Speed & Anger Boils Over in Moscow
Stanislav Krapivnik is a former US Army officer from Donbas, who has since returned. Krapivnik discusses how Russia's summer offensive is gaining speed, and the anger growing in Moscow (especially against Germany).

Well, that's it from me on the two hot spots today. No doubt we live in interesting times as we witness a momentous shift in geopolitical and economic power. There's no doubt we will feel the effects of shutting down the Strait by July or August. Will we see Russia strike those weapon manufacturing facilities in NATO? Time will tell.

In the comments below I hope you'll add stories, X posts, and so on to help keep us all up to date.