On the Brink of Peace or More War?

No matter how you feel about Trump, you got to admit he keeps things interesting with his wake of chaos. One thing one day, the opposite the next, has led me to call him zig zag Trump. Perhaps it is all about keeping the blob off balance, or may be it is just Trump's nature. The big Trump news this week was his trip to western Asia. Sounds like he cut lots of business deals, and seems sincere in wanting a settlement with Iran. If Israel or the US start a conflict with Iran, I think it is WWIII, and the west will lose. Look how the Houthis stood us down, and now they want to take on Iran? Looks like he's getting lots of pressure from the Neocons to start that insane war.

There a so many current conflicts it is difficult to know where to begin. Perhaps we should start with Ukraine and the clown show in Turkey this week.

Story has been making rounds that Ukrainians were outraged when Russia negotiators said that Ukrainian soldiers must leave the four new Russian regions as part of ceasefire, to which the Moscow delegation replied "Next time it will be five."
Now, our reporter in Istanbul got to ask the Russian side how it really went down:
"We didn't say five. We said eight."

The Ukrainain delegation in Istanbul is using an "Interpreter" to speak to their Russian counterparts. This is despite the fact that they privately all speak Russian almost exclusively.
Zelensky himself using Russian exclusively with friends had family.

Alex does a good job describing the talks...

0:00 - Video update begins with discussion of Istanbul talks
1:18 - Summary of short Russia-Ukraine talks mediated by Turkey
2:46 - Agreement on prisoner exchange between Russia and Ukraine
3:35 - Preparation of ceasefire roadmaps by both sides
5:07 - Russia's commitment to preparing a ceasefire outline
6:01 - Medinski's comments on avoiding conflict and readiness to fight
10:35 - Historical context of Russia's initial goals in Ukraine conflict
11:19 - Discussion of potential territorial changes if no agreement is reached
14:00 - Reaction from Western media and leaders to the talks
17:01 - European leaders' photo in Albania symbolizes unity against Russia
20:26 - Zelensky's speech at the European Political Community Summit
23:02 - Trump's Fox News interview and comments on the Ukraine conflict
29:01 - Concerns about a potential Trump-Putin meeting
32:19 - Overview of upcoming elections in Portugal, Poland, and Romania
38:32 - Clown world section: AI-generated video of world leaders
40:24 - Ursula von der Leyen's comments on Europe as an idea
41:35 - Reports on potential sanctions on Nord Stream from Albania summit

Pepe has his own take...
The Istanbul Kabuki – Decoded (Pepe Escobar)
What’s the point of these negotiations? Turkiye under uber-opportunist Sultan Erdogan in fact hosted a P.R. meeting between Moscow, Kiev and itself – with the Ukrainians unleashing a blitzkrieg of infantile tantrums only designed to influence global public opinion. In sharp contrast, the head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund, Kirill Dmitriev, did his best to put a positive spin on the proceedings. Istanbul 2.0, Dmitriev asserted, achieved a large exchange of prisoners (1,000 on each side); ceasefire options to be presented by both sides; and a continuation of dialogue. That’s not much. Well, at least they discussed in the same language: Russian. Nothing was lost in translation. A serious case can be made that to propose the resumption of these negotiations, under this format, was meaningless.
There’s no evidence in the horizon both parties might touch the fundamental issue anytime soon: the whole geopolitical strategic equation in Eastern Europe, from the Barents Sea to the Black Sea and beyond – leading to an “indivisibility of security” new deal with global repercussions. That implies that whatever track these negotiations may follow further on down the road, they are an objective impossibility. Meanwhile, the proxy war in Ukraine – and the SMO – will go on. That would also suggest that the Moscow security establishment considers the neo-nazi instrumentalized goons in Kiev at best as a re-enactment of the 6th Army of Paulus, with which you negotiate the end of a battle, but not the end of the war. Even NATO semi-realists as retired Commodore Steven Jermy have been forced to admit that “Russia is in the driving seat” and clueless Europeans “appear to believe that the losers should dictate the terms of ceasefire or surrender.”

The Ukraine conflict could have ended very quickly if Kiev had chosen to negotiate from the beginning rather than heed its Western backers and fight Russia, Vladimir Medinsky, head of Moscow’s delegation at the Istanbul talks, said in wake of the negotiations. Medinsky made the comments after nearly two hours of talks between the Russian and Ukrainian delegations in Istanbul on Friday. The two nations agreed upon a major prisoner swap involving 1,000 POWs from each side, as well as to continue contacts once each side has prepared a detailed ceasefire proposal, the Russian delegation said.After the meeting, the presidential aide and professional historian sat down for a major interview with the Russia’s Rossiya 1 broadcaster.
The hostilities between Moscow and Kiev, which have already dragged on for more than three years, could have ended in mere weeks, Medinsky believes. Ukraine just needed to stick to the arrangements it had reached with Russia during the initial rounds of peace talks in the Belarusian city of Gomel in late February, he stated. Kiev could have “agreed to a peace in late February [2022], but they did not and dragged their feet instead,” the official said. The Russian peace proposal presented at the following round of talks, which was held in Istanbul in the spring of 2022, was already less favorable to Ukraine, as it already reflected some “changes on the ground,” he added.“The Istanbul process was also regrettably disrupted because of the West’s direct involvement,” Medinsky stated, blaming then British Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s visit to Kiev in May of 2022 for scuttling the initial peace negotiations.

The result: three more years of intense conflict, which have caused millions of casualties, mainly on the Ukrainian side. The proxy war has come perilously close to provoking an all-out world war between nuclear powers. Trump appears to want peace. If he is genuine in that intention, then the American president will have to address the root causes of the conflict. Russia has consistently explained the deeper causes of NATO aggression and the militarization of Ukraine as a hostile bridgehead on its borders since the CIA-orchestrated coup in Kiev in 2014. The American president has shown petulance at times, urging Ukraine and Russia to get down to a peace deal. He has even threatened Russia with more (futile) economic sanctions. What the Trump administration needs to understand is that resolving deep causes of conflict requires commensurate negotiations and a realistic commitment to lasting geopolitical security arrangements.

The UK continues trying to prevent a peace deal...
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s ultimatums and sanctions threats just demonstrate that the UK wants to undermine the settlement of the Ukraine conflict, the Russian Embassy in the UK has said. Last week, the leaders of the UK, France, Germany, and Poland met in a Kiev and threatened to impose more sanctions on Russia if Moscow did not agree to a 30-day unconditional ceasefire by Monday. That date has come and gone, and no truce was agreed upon during Friday’s direct Russian-Ukrainian talks. “Now, having issued that ultimatum, we must be prepared to follow through, because if Russia won’t come to the negotiating table, [Russian President Vladimir] Putin must pay the price,” Starmer said at a security meeting in Albania on Friday. “The Russian position is clearly unacceptable, and not for the first time.”
The Russian Embassy in London has pointed out that Downing Street is not part of the talks between the belligerents. “The British Prime Minister hasty statement claiming that Russia’s position at the talks in Istanbul is unacceptable and that a response is being prepared causes outright bewilderment,” the embassy said in a statement on Friday. “The British have been behind all the escalatory moves by the West, from supplying offensive weapons to Kiev’s military and to using Western long-range missiles against civilians deep in Russian territory,” the embassy wrote. London was the first of Kiev’s Western sponsors to send domestic long-range cruise missiles to Ukraine.

EU leaders went to Kiev to scuttle any chance of peace, and on the way home got caught "Ridin' that Train High on Cocaine".

French President Hides Bag Of “White Stuff” From Reporters!! (18 min)

The proxy war was planned long ago...

The post continues...
RAND isn’t a blog or a fringe group, it’s an official, state-funded think tank that advises the Pentagon, CIA, State Department, and NATO.
It designs wars, regime change and psychological warfare. RAND turns U.S. power into global control.
Let’s unpack
What the document says (verbatim):
“The steps we examine would not have either defense or deterrence as their prime purpose… Rather, they are conceived of as elements in a campaign designed to unbalance the adversary, causing Russia to compete in domains or regions where the United States has a competitive advantage.”
Translation: how to push Russia into costly traps.

The Most Important Forecast Martin Armstrong Has Ever Made — Ukraine to Disappear (45 min)
This isn’t a guess. It’s based on decades of data from the Socrates AI forecasting system — and it’s never issued a warning like this before.
We also cover:
--Why Ukraine is finished, no matter what the West says
--Why Europe needs war to stay afloat
--How the next economic collapse will ripple from the periphery inward
--And what you can do to prepare before the clock runs out
Armstrong’s model has never been wrong about direction — and now it’s pointing to something irreversible.

The Duran discusses the peace talks...
Istanbul circus. Sanctions trap set for Trump (36 min)
0:00 - Introduction to the Istanbul Talks
2:07 - Russia’s Methodical Approach vs. Ukraine’s Confusion
4:00 - Breakdown of the Russian Negotiating Team
8:28 - Ukraine’s Disorganized Messaging
13:06 - Media Spin and Narrative Games
16:41 - Sanctions as the Endgame
20:11 - Russians Keeping to Istanbul Plus Plan
24:08 - Focus on Russian Civilians Held by Ukraine
26:42 - Lula’s Role and China’s Alleged Pressure
32:04 - Neocons Reunifying Around Russia
34:41 - Conclusion – It’s All About the Washing Machine

Istanbul Plus June 2024 terms or military solution (55 min)
0:00 - No talks in Istanbul; Zilinsky's movements
1:01 - Green light for negotiations; meeting arrangements
1:42 - Chaos and circus-like atmosphere of the talks
5:10 - American involvement in negotiations
9:02 - Russian delegation's presence in Istanbul
15:02 - Trump's proposal for direct talks with Putin
17:22 - Discussion on ceasefire and negotiation dynamics
25:00 - Concerns about Trump's potential direct negotiations with Putin
31:44 - Trajectory towards US-Russia negotiations
36:23 - Risks and pressures on both Russian and American sides
47:04 - Trump's strategy for broader talks beyond Ukraine
54:50 - Conclusion and outro remarks

A meeting between President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin brings with it the focus of the entire world. For a myriad of geopolitical reasons both domestically and abroad, there are ‘trillion-dollar’ interests who want to keep them apart. Earlier today, fearing that President Trump might actually travel to Turkey, NATO Secretary Mark Rutte and Senator Lindsey Graham quickly arranged dispatch to intercept and participate. The global intelligence apparatus wants to keep Trump and Putin apart, so too does the NATO alliance, the CIA, the U.K and every other influence agent in partial control of the USA proxy war against Russia using Ukraine.
...
For President Trump and Vladimir Putin to join in strategic interest is to disrupt the global order of things, and I do mean everything. The military industrial complex, the global banking system, the World Economic Forum assembly, the multinational stock markets, the world trade system, the entire European continent, Asian continent, Australian continent, African continent and North American continent, as well as every conflict therein, could be impacted by joint decisions between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump. To say the stakes are high, would be to understate the scale of the dynamic.
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In this interview, Secretary of State Marco Rubio seems to nurture the seeds placed by President Trump in his earlier remarks about sitting down with Vladimir Putin to hammer out the details of a ceasefire agreement between Ukraine and Russia. The entire world pretends not to know that all of the military engagement within Ukraine and around Ukraine, is essentially a proxy war between the USA and Russia. A potential meeting between President Trump and Vladimir Putin destroys that framework.

President Donald Trump said Friday as he wrapped up his four-day visit to the Middle East that the White House is still moving forward on setting up direct talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin, and that this will happen as soon as possible.”I think it’s time for us to just do it,” Trump told reporters, addressing whether an in-person meeting will still happen. He added that a meeting with Putin will happen “as soon as we can set it up”. He suggested that peace will ultimately only be possible if the two leaders sit at the same table. That’s when he said, interestingly that “I would actually leave here and go” – an apparent reference to Istanbul where rare Russia-Ukraine talks are being held Friday.
...
Trump later told reporters after boarding Air Force One to begin the journey back to Washington that he may call Putin soon. “He and I will meet, and I think we’ll solve it or maybe not,” Trump said. “At least we’ll know. And if we don’t solve it, it’ll be very interesting.” An actual Putin-Trump sit-down would be bad news for Kiev, which has seethed at being cut out of US-Russia bilateral engagement, given much of this engagement is related to the fate of Ukraine. With the minerals deal signed, Zelensky is attempting to reset the rocky relationship with Trump. A lot of pressure has been coming from the US administration, urging Kiev to be willing to negotiate peace, which would require some level of significant concessions.

Western Asia/ the Middle East
Gaza is still being bombed and the people starved.
Gaza's rescuers said Friday that over 250 people had been killed in Israeli strikes on the Palestinian territory since Thursday... Israel has intensified its bombardment and built up armoured forces along the border despite growing international pressure for it to resume ceasefire talks and end its blockade of Gaza, where warnings of famine are growing.

What a different world from pre-Zionist Palestine.

(12 min)

Was Trump's trip about peace or money?
President Trump joked Friday that he regretted not asking “for more” from the Gulf states during his visit to the Middle East, where he secured more than $2 trillion in US investments and even scored a potential replacement for Air Force One. “There’s never been a trip like this by any president or anybody ever before,” Trump told Fox News’ “Special Report” host Bret Baier about his four days in Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. The president sealed deals throughout his Middle East swing, including a $600 billion investment commitment from Saudi Arabia, a $1.2 trillion economic exchange agreement and a $243.5 billion commercial and defense pact with Qatar and $200 billion in UAE commercial investment agreements. “I should’ve asked for more,” Trump said of the four-day windfall.

Here's an interesting take...
Trump’s Middle East Theatricals Were All About Putting Bibi In His Place
His visit to the Middle East and his impressive speech in Saudi Arabia which mocked the bellicose approach to bombing civilians was a direct message to Netanyahu in Israel: America is back. Trump is literally taking control of U.S. foreign policy in the region and pushing back Israel’s attempts to bomb its way to peace, whether this be in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria or, of course, in Iran. The move comes at a tough time in the region where the country which seemed to bring about a revolution with the Arab Spring – Tunisia – is falling into an abys as it becomes a leading example of a dictatorship which knows no limits on its brutal suppression. For Netanyahu, a number of pundits now are pointing to the “clear light” between Trump and him with some claiming that these two leaders aren’t even talking anymore. Trump defied him by talking to Iran, negotiating with the Houthis and now scrapping sanctions in Syria.

Any chance of a deal with Iran?
Trump Sends Nuclear Proposal to Tehran, Demands Iran Act ‘Quickly’
President Donald Trump wrapped up his first trip abroad since returning to the Oval Office by sending Iran a proposal for a nuclear agreement and threatening that something “bad” would happen if Tehran did not quickly make a deal with Washington.
Typical Trump threat based diplomacy...

On Iran, Trump Should Resist the Zero-Enrichment Fantasy
After diplomatic backtracking this weekend, here’s how the president can strike a nuclear deal with Tehran.
...
Trump is wise to be skeptical of war with Iran. Contrary to the narrative pushed by Israel and its neoconservative allies, Iran’s regional setbacks do not leave it defenseless or incapable of striking U.S. bases and personnel in the event of conflict. While the weakening of Hezbollah and the loss of Syria are significant, they haven’t affected Iran’s missile program, which remains its primary means of retaliation.
...
Trump has a better shot at striking a strong deal with Iran than any previous president—if he avoids the mistakes of the past and the illusion of zero enrichment. While Steve Witkoff and Marco Rubio have publicly insisted on zero enrichment as the only solution, Trump has wisely been more ambiguous. In the end, it’s his word—and only his—that matters.

The Duran discusses a possible deal...

(15 min) Iran offers to indefinitely halt high-level uranium enrichment in exchange for US sanctions relief. The deal, potentially better than Obama's 2015 agreement, could bring stability to the Middle East. Saudi Arabia supports the negotiations, marking a shift in regional dynamics.

War-obsessed Republican US Senators are desperately trying to scuttle what seems like an impending breakthrough in US talks with Iran. Just as President Trump finishes up a successful Middle Eastern tour, all Republican Senators – except Sen. Rand Paul – have signed a letter warning the President that any deal would be DOA if it did not include one point that is sure to be rejected by Iran. Unsurprisingly, AIPAC is heavily praising (and probably drafted) the letter. Meanwhile 2/3 of REPUBLICANS want the talks to be successful according to a recent poll!

India-Pakistan Peace seems to be holding.

Why? Perhaps it was the Chinese weapons?
CHINESE WEAPONS SHOCK THE WEST: Pakistan's J-10C Jets Take Down India's French Rafale | Carl Zha
India and Pakistan have agreed to a ceasefire, after last week’s deadly conflict saw an important combat test for Chinese weaponry, with Pakistan employing the Chengdu J-10C Vigorous Dragon fighter jet, which used air-to-air missiles to bring down at least two of India’s French-made Dassault Rafale fighter jets.
Carl Zha, a geopolitical analyst and Host of the Silk & Steel Podcast, noted that not only is the Chinese weaponry significantly cheaper than its Western counterparts (which will attract more customers without the strings that come attached to weapons purchases from the U.S.), but Chengdu has already moved on to the J-20 Mighty Dragon stealth fighter jet.

The China Trade War...
Uncertainty Of Future Tariffs Continues To Hamstring Economy
On April 2 President Donald Trump declared "Liberation Day," announcing a new tariff strategy aimed at allegedly correcting trade imbalances and protecting U.S. workers and industries.
It was the wrong medicine for misdiagnosed illness. Internal U.S. economic problems are caused by legal incentives for financial speculation and disincentives to produce goods people need. Tariffs won't solve that problem.
The tariff rates Trump introduced were ignoring economic realities. The whole economic concept behind was based on some advisors weird theory. It was obvious that the whole Trump strategy implemented through tariffs would fail.
China and other pushed back against U.S. tariffs by introducing some on their own. The markets reacted appropriately. The values of the U.S. dollar, U.S. stock markets and U.S. treasuries decreased.
By April 9 Trump was forced to pull back. He paused the tariffs for most countries for 90 days but increased tariffs on China.
China responded in kind.
Three days later Trump announced another retreat. Smartphones and computers were excluded from the previously introduced tariffs.
Speculators may well have liked the uncertainty Trump's irresponsible tariff tactics introduced into financial markets. But for markets of real goods uncertainty is a venom that blocks all activities. It soon became obvious that the tariffs would cause huge problems for the U.S. economy.
Trump tried to press China to concede to U.S. terms in some new trade deal. But China rejected all talks until tariffs were reestablished at the previous levels.
That concession was made. Talks over the weekend in Geneva saw the U.S., again, pulling back.
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It is not only the very high 30% tariff (for mostly products with very low profit margins) that will prevent Chinese factories from resuming production and U.S. retailers from restocking their shelves.
The poison that still paralyses everything is the uncertainty and insecurity that comes with the 90 days limit of the deal and with no perspective of what might follow. Who will post orders for, let's say return-to-school items, if it is unknown what price will have to be paid for them?

How Trump Lost His Trade War in 40 Days (34 min)
Donald Trump launched a brutal trade war with China — threatening 145% tariffs and claiming he was putting "America First." But just weeks later, the tariffs vanished... and China never even flinched. In this exclusive interview, China expert Shaun Rein reveals the untold story of how Trump’s trade war collapsed from the inside — and how China quietly outmaneuvered the United States without firing a shot.
00:00 - Intro to US China Trade War
00:45 - Intro to Shaun Rein
01:57 - How the Trade War Backfired on Trump
03:00 - Why the Chinese Never Backed Down
04:30 - Why Chinese People Will Never Give Up
05:53 - Why Xi Jinping Is More Popular Than Ever
06:33 - Is China Going to Collapse?
07:30 - Why the Trade Hurts Both US and China
08:32 - Why China Has Upper Hand
09:51 - Trump's Biggest Mistake
10:22 - Europe and China Moving Closer Today
11:18 - What Do Chinese People Think?
12:20 - Why China Was Hit Hard First
13:30 - The New Chinese Tariff Rate
14:47 - Why Factories Won't Come to USA
16:20 - Truth About Scotty Bessent
17:35 - Is the USA in Trouble
18:15 - Is USA More Authoritarian Than China?
22:34 - Why Tourists Are Boycotting USA
23:45 - Why China Tourism is Booming
24:33 - Why Chinese Economy is Strong
25:35 - What is Future of India?
27:55 - What is Future of Apple in China?
28:47 - Why China is the Next China
30:35 - Best Business Book About China
31:32 - The Best Chinese Companies to Invest
32:37 - The Future of Chinese Middle Class
33:35 - Conclusion

Well we made it through another week without WWIII erupting. That's a good thing. Unfortunately no peace has broken out...at least not yet. But, I find it hopeful that at least there seems to be the effort to bring about some peace. So I hope you're having a peaceful weekend, and I look forward to your insights in the comments below. The thread is open to any and all thoughts and stories.