On the forthcoming Republican victory
This diary is actually about Joe Biden.
Things are going really badly for Team Biden, especially in Ukraine, as Alex and Alexander point out. Moon of Alabama also says something about that:
If he doesn't the neoconservatives around him will have a great incentive to move on China as fast as possible. As Biden will have difficulties in winning next year's election he needs some objective that can unify the country. A war that he can claim the U.S. will win is one. Some hostile naval exchanges with China will follow.
Of course, before concluding thusly, MoA already went over how the US would probably lose a war with China. Here one might reflect upon how decades of unrestrained "defense" spending has created an out of control military producing super-expensive gold-plated weapons which in sum are no match for Russia nor China. But that's a different issue. At any rate, I'm kind of expecting the coup de grace to the Biden juggernaut to be delivered by BRICS, which is becoming something of an oil cartel (having added Saudi Arabia and UAE), which will probably cut production and add to high gas prices. Maybe Joe can look really pathetic at some point, begging the Crown Prince for lower gas prices.
Oooh, so Biden is going to go belly-up, and the Dems are going to switch to another candidate, Kamala Harris or Gavin Newsom, I hear you say. I'm sure there are plenty of Dems who would like to do that. However, the whole concept of doing the bait-and-switch is greatly hindered by several difficulties. Let's go over them:
1) Kamala Harris is the obvious choice to replace Biden as the candidate for 2024, seeing as she's Vice-President. Do you think they could prop her up sufficiently to make her in to a campaigner? Do you think she'd allow it? Remember that in the 2020 primaries Harris had to withdraw before the Iowa caucuses because she wasn't getting any traction.
2) The problem with Gavin Newsom will probably be one of "if we let him in will we also have to let RFK Jr. in?" After all, Gavin Newsom would come out of such a transaction out of the blue, while they've been ignoring RFK Jr. for some time now. They don't really want to do that. They've already threatened to charge RFK Jr. (what? Maybe a billion or two?) to cover the cost of the primaries, and so now all of a sudden they're going to let Newsom march to the finish line for free? That won't look good. They would, as Sabrina Salvati speculates, probably do it, though. Or here's a fun scenario: someone assassinates RFK Jr. because RFK Jr.'s squad has to "appeal to Joe Biden" for Secret Service protection, and Joe is busy cruising on Lorazepam. Later they pull the switcheroo. Yeah, that won't look good.
3) Jaime Harrison has already declared that Joe Biden is the Dems' nominee. I await his "I take it back" speech after all of the DNC's iron-fisted efforts.
4) The media and the shadow government, which has been employed to an unprecedented extent in this affair, are doubtless still lining ducks in a row for Joe Biden. They're all going to change their propaganda lines and sneaky activities on a dime?
5) The longer they wait, the more likely they'll be stuck with Gavin Newsom trying to overcome being unknown by large portions of America while the Democratic Party rank and file asks "why did you wait this long?"
We thus confront this likely scenario: 1) Joe Biden sticks it out until the end, by which time he'll have sadly forgotten how to perform a few basic bodily functions and nobody will be allowed to see him. 2) The Republican, complaining all the while that he's running against nobody, picks up votes in a vacuum. 3) The Republican ascends to the White House.
As for Cornel West, we can read all over the alt-media now complaints about "why'd he pick Peter Daou to be his campaign manager?" Likely scenario: If Peter Daou is the "professional" he says he is, he'll be kept busy with ballot access efforts while West hides from the public for fear that the rallies he OUGHT to be scheduling right now won't ever occur. A less timid campaign would have been nice. At any rate, as I've said in a previous comment, Green Party candidates typically run on no money because nobody donates to them. So Daou will not be working with a list of reliable donors who can be expected to cough up the money needed to pursue a conventional campaign -- unless Cornel West has one ready to hand.
Sabrina Salvati covers RFK Jr. again:
Lots of stuff there to make the Democratic Party look bad. But imagine you're an RFK Jr. donor. Are you going to donate to his campaign if he's still undecided as to whether his campaign will be pointless or not? (Insert gentle reminder here that successful independent campaigns take time to set up.)
It is in this way the Republicans will win by default. Sure, they're unpopular: nobody likes their demonizing the poor, nor their criminalization of pregnancy. But at least they'll come out of this with a viable candidate. The Democrats, on the other hand, give the appearance of "ridin' with Biden" which will persist long after the actual physical Joe Biden has forgotten how to ride. And the third party option? Has anyone yet paused to take stock of how daunting this option currently is, and has been for most of American history?