Ukraine's big counter-offensive is really rolling now

A week ago I called to your attention how the media was reporting glowing reports about Ukraine's big counter-offensive to take back the city of Kherson.

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Well, OK. So not much was happening on that front, but now it's a week later, and the American news media just can't get enough about how Ukraine is striking back!

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There you go. Ukraine is on the move and Russia is in real trouble.
Why I bet if we were to check out Ukraine Livemap again that would look entirely different.
They wouldn't have been lying to us, would they?

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You don't suppose that the media has had another "WMD moment"?

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CB's picture

Military situation maps from a Ukrainian viewpoint

Latest video:

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DIRECT from UKRAINE - An analysis from the author of War in Ukraine channel:

(CB Note: This author tries to frame Dima from the other channel (below) as a KGB agent. Personally, I have found Dima's channel is more informational.)

Military situation maps from a Russian viewpoint

Latest video:

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Dima, from the Military Summary channel

(CB Note: The Military Summary channel on YouTube does a very accurate job reporting on the front-line military situation in Ukraine.)

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snoopydawg's picture

Congress doesn’t need to find a way to pay for the billions it’s sending to Ukraine like they say they have to for anything that helps we the people. And never forget that Graham along with the other Nazi lover McCain were in Ukraine during the Maidan massacre cheering on the Nazis for killing Ukrainians and McCain being pictured giving the Nazi salute. Or that the head Nazi was celebrated in congress and cheered by many members.

From MoA on Kherson

The Ukrainian side has loudly announce an upcoming counter offensive on the southern front towards Kherson city. But the number of Russian units in that larger area have since been increased to a level that makes a new Russian offensive towards Mykolaiv (Nikolaev), Kryvyv Rih (Krivoy Rog) or Zaporitzhia more likely than anything the Ukrainian side could possibly do.

In August Ukraine will start drafting women and soon people over 60 including disabled people. What a worthless waste of life happening in Ukraine. What makes it sadder is that the slaughter was so easily avoidable. Damn the chick hawks. Today congress voted to allow Sweden and Finland into NATO. Hawley voted no because it takes our focus off of China. And it’s beyond hypocritical that congress voted to make Russia a state sponsor of terrorism when we’ve been creating, training and arming Al Qaeda since the 80's. I doubt very much that Biden killed Zahawri. Nor did Obama kill OBL who Butto said died in 2010. Maybe earlier?

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It is not until the tide goes out that you discover who has been swimming naked.

CB's picture

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snoopydawg's picture

@CB

to be rehabilitated, one only has to dabble in the truth about Ukraine or say something decent about Russia or Putin to be cast down and called an apologist. Greenwald became person non grata when he criticized Hellabitch and wrote about her emails and warmongering. As did many people who shitlibs once liked if they were critical of any democrat.

My anti war uncle today celebrated the new navy ship made out of steel from the twin towers. He also hearts Zelensky and his wife on Vogue. And he posted how Biden slaughtered Zahawri and goaded Trump for not doing it. He still says that he’s anti war, but cheers every Russian death.

9EC45D3C-4CCD-4109-80E4-707BEB7D7FCE.jpeg

He’s estactic when a Trump supremist gets locked up for years in prison for being involved in 1/6 and calls the republicans that didn’t vote to certify the election traitors. I haven’t had anything to do with him for over a year because I do not like what he has become nor do I like his views anymore. He makes fun of people who watch Fox News, yet never misses Rachel and he has even forgiven Nicolle Wallace who was Bush’s mouthpiece for lying to us for how many years she did.

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It is not until the tide goes out that you discover who has been swimming naked.

snoopydawg's picture

@snoopydawg

I just don’t understand how people can change so much in a few short years after being against what they are now cheering most of their lives. I’m still a humanist no matter how much propaganda shit the government has thrown at me.

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It is not until the tide goes out that you discover who has been swimming naked.

snoopydawg's picture

But I’d love to know just what was the reason she went to Taiwan? Was it to create some type of legacy for the first woman speaker of the house? I hope she’s happy with China’s reactions.

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It is not until the tide goes out that you discover who has been swimming naked.

@snoopydawg

I’d love to know just what was the reason she went to Taiwan? Was it to create some type of legacy for the first woman speaker of the house? I hope she’s happy with China’s reactions.

I'm assuming you mean a reason beyond her having exhausted the domestic possibilities for a warm public welcome?

Then, how about this:

The woke-Dems and elements of the Deep State *are* pushing for conflict with China over Taiwan.
But *not* with the intention of winning.

Having underplayed the huge buildup of Chinese military power, especially over the last decade or so, having weakened the US military by an ill-conceived Covid response, vaccine mandates and wokeness..., high-profile bungling of things like the Afghan withdrawal, diverting attention and resources - including critical weapons systems to the Ukraine forever war - and clueless leadership at the top...

A near-ideal situation has been created for a US and allied *defeat*, either in outright kinetic terms or in a humiliating climb-down in the face of PRC aggression.

Of course, that would constitute a horrific betrayal of the Taiwanese - who have every right to govern themselves - not to mention a downright traitorous abuse of their responsibilities. Get the distinct impression, though, that there are people in positions of power who would not lose sleep over such matters, as long as they felt sure their own situations would benefit in the process.

“No matter how cynical you get, it is impossible to keep up.”
― Lily Tomlin

“I said "Somebody should do something about that." Then I realized I am somebody.”
― Lily Tomlin

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CB's picture

From Moon of Alabama:

Ukraine SitRep - On The Ground Report - Ukrainian Frontline Collapses
August 03, 2022

Below is a slightly edited machine translation of a piece which appeared yesterday on the Ukrainian side censor.net. The piece was promoted by Yuri Butusov, a well known Ukrainian military correspondent. It is originally a social media post by someone who was on the frontline in Pisky, immediately northwest of Donetsk city.

Context:

Over the last two to three months the Ukrainian side has used its positions in the vicinity of Donetsk city to more or less randomly shell the civilian population on the Russian affiliated side. After some serious protests the Russian military command agreed to launch a dedicated counter-artillery operation to shut down the deadly Ukrainian harassment.
...
The systematic counter-artillery campaign has seriously deteriorated the already rare Ukrainian fire power.
...
Following intense artillery preparations Russian forces are currently - slowly, slowly - clearing the lines of reinforced concrete bunkers and ditches that have been build on the Ukrainian side over the last 8 years. Here now is the view of that battle from the Ukrainian side (edited machine translation, for an alternative translation see this.) (Note: 300 is the military cargo designator for wounded people, 200 is for dead soldiers):
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Now put yourself into the position of Serhiy Gnezdilov, Denys or Dimka. Then think about the politicians who sweet talk of heroic Ukrainian resistance and send these men to be slaughtered for no possible gain.

Sorry Serhiy, more artillery wont do it. The Russian side would just grind it up within days. How many of the 120 U.S. M-777 howitzers that were given to Ukraine still exist? Maybe 10 or so, most of them damaged?

There are other operations going on. North of the Donetsk front there is a thrust towards Bakhmut (also known as Artomovsk). Yesterday Soledar, north of Bakhmut was reported to be mostly captured. Vershyna and Zaiseve, south of it, are also gone or will fall soon.
...
By the way - the opponent casualties numbers given by the Russian ministry of defense are likely over estimated (as all such numbers are). But even if only half of those ~900 claimed yesterday really were wounded or killed on the day before the losses are still devastating. In 1967, at the very height of the Vietnam war, U.S. casualties, dead and wounded, were at maximum about 200 per day. We see a multiple of those on the Ukrainian side each and every day.

This is not sustainable. The Ukrainian government should have given up the uneven fight months ago. It is an immense crime to further urge it on.

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Lookout's picture

@CB

Russia Storms Ukrainian Defenses in Donbass, Zelensky Admits Ukraine Outgunned, Speaks of 'Hellish' Condition for Kiev Troops

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“Until justice rolls down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream.”

Cassiodorus's picture

@Lookout "How else are we to fatten our personal bank accounts on black market trading?"

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"The future is inside us/ It's not somewhere else." -- Radiohead

CB's picture

Ukraine can push the Russians out of the country:

John Spencer: "Bottom line. Yes, Russia is in running out of steam and capability, but it is still a major threat and Ukraine will not be able to achieve their goals without massive amounts of western weapons and support, more than the amounts flowing or promised to arrive today. 14/14"

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snoopydawg's picture

@CB

Still? Goodness me it seems that people have been saying that since the 2nd week of the conflict. Running out of generals, running out of soldiers, running out of conscripts from the never regions of Russia, running out of weapons, tanks, missiles…you name it.

Any time Russia pulls back from any area it’s because Ukraine pushed them out and not because Russia accomplished its goals there. And boy did they flub badly by not taking Kiev…except they never planned on doing it. Unfortunately lots of people believe everything the mainstream media tells them.

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It is not until the tide goes out that you discover who has been swimming naked.

@snoopydawg @snoopydawg same as a feint used in basketball and other sports.

Deliberate misdirection. In this case to keep the enemy forces pinned down while the Donbas campaign got under way.

The NY Times is clinging to this falsity as late as today, because it is all they have left. Why an otherwise intelligent website like Caucus99 covers this is beyond my understanding. maybe I didn't read it closely enough and it is satire?

Similarly---Russia has only been using 8-12% of its forces. They can change that anytime they want to or need to. The same thing applies to fuel and food and supply routes and repair shops where the Russian Army tows captured vehicles and armaments if they need any repairs. The UA abandons troops tanks and artillery in the field. They do not give a fuck and why should they. Their fate is sealed.

The Russian Army prepared for this conflict for 8 years and it is covered to a depth our careless and arrogant politicians cannot even imagine.

This "what if Ukraine can win?" scenario is absurd. Might as well be dreaming of what you will do with your winning Lottery ticket.

Russia will do whatever it plans to do in Mikolaiv, Kherson and Kharkiv and if you still cannot understand that no further words can help you see.

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NYCVG

QMS's picture

@NYCVG

Yes, this make-believe war is a farce. Good for the weapons industries, bad for the rest of
the world. Not 100% sure, but what you are reading here is making jokes about the benefits of
fighting chosen enemies in a last-ditch attempt to rule the world with petrodollars.
Won't work, so the walled street traders are pulling out all of the stops. If we were to believe the MSM
spin on things: Ukraine wins, China, India and the Middle East will fold. Russia wins, and it's nuclear
winter. Someone should disband NATO before it is too late.

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@NYCVG
It was an honest-to-gawd miscalculation about the strength of the Ukrainian military, plus it was an underestimation about the effectiveness of western weapons against tanks. It's this latter point that got our Merchants of Death so excited that they all started cumming in their pants.

However, that means exactly nothing when it comes to the ability of the Ukrainian military to launch an offensive. Those western weapons can be used miles from the front, but you can't conduct a military offensive from miles away. The Russian military has similar weapons, and so can destroy Ukrainian tanks by the score as well.

I doubt that Ukraine has the ability to launch any sort of general offensive. Russia has been using an attrition strategy for months now. Ukraine's military is getting ground down.

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Lookout's picture

@gjohnsit

I think it was to hold troops back from the Donbass also. Russia's miscalculation IMO is that many average Ukrainians in the armed forces (outside of Azov) would support Russia rather than the Ukranazis. They were wrong about that.

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“Until justice rolls down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream.”

@Lookout @Lookout I can make the case in several ways:

One way is by asking the relevant questions: First, Kiev? 1) Why was the Russian Army approaching but not entering Kiev?

Next, 2) How did this tank convoy address the Stated Aims and Goals of the Russians entering Ukraine? ( It did not!)

Third, 3) Why is this tank convoy stretched 40 miles in a North/South direction from Kiev? Why not West/East, for example?

A bit of background and then the answers.

The Ukrainian Army was credited with having 200,000 highly trained and respected troops in Ukraine when this conflict began. Not to mention the foreign troops NATO trained and mercenaries from the West. Most of them were believed to be deeply entrenched in the Donbas and Mariupol.

The Stated goal and aim of Russia was to recapture the entire Donbas and Crimea. We assumed that further aims would include the entire southern part of Ukraine. How to do this seeming impossible task without leveling the playing field a bit?

This would be No Easy task. Especially considering the amount of fortifications and trained forces the UA had on the ground, and under it. In Mariupol alone, the exiting soldiers and civilians numbered 2329 plus 200 frozen bodies a few months ago. The number might have risen over time.

This is why a feint holding Ukrainian Forces in not only Kiev but in Sumy and Kharkiv as well occurred. The goal was to involve and keep in place as many Ukrainian troops as necessary to make the gargantuan task of clearing the Donbas and the South a bit easier.

Why Kiev and North/South?

Look at a map.

Kiev with a tank convoy stretching 40 miles to the north heads into the direction of the Belarus border, an ally of Russia. The Russian border, otoh, is much further away.

If you've been watching any Russian video you will be aware that Russia has re-supply refined into an art. Their Shower Train alone is amazing. Rumbling south from Belarus, let me assure you that the soldiers in that convoy lack neither food, nor fuel, nor anything else they might need. Including regular R and R visits home.

I could go on and on but that is the general outline.

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NYCVG

@Lookout
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CB's picture

@gjohnsit @gjohnsit
backed by Russian artillery in the Donetsk region has been accelerating in the last several weeks. This areas is the most fortified region in Ukraine. The Ukraine forces have been building extensive fortifications for well over 6 years while their troops have been trained and supplied with equipment by NATO.

If you go to Russo-Ukraine War you can zoom in and actually see the Ukrainian fortified positions (marked with a blue castle) in the Donbas region. The castles are deleted once the DPR/LPR forces take the position.

There are two ways of winning - taking land or attrition of opposing forces. Attrition of Ukrainian forces has been steadily increasing since the beginning of the conflict. Meanwhile the Russian backed forces are going slow to minimize their casualties. They pound the Ukrainians with artillery then probe the area. If they get opposition, they fall back and pound the Ukrainians some more or move on to test another point until they breakthrough. They then secure the area, regroup and move again.

Take note that the Russians have taken over 20% of Ukraine's 230,000 square miles in 5 months.

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Lookout's picture

@gjohnsit

Listen to Alexander

or 'the new atlas' for a better synopsis

Joining me for this update is Mark Sleboda, an international relations and security expert based in Russia, and US Navy veteran. We will discuss the latest developments in Ukraine including a recent Pentagon briefing and Western media claims made in recent days.

Russia is making the progress Ukraine is in retreat and the western media spin is a lie to promote war.

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“Until justice rolls down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream.”

@Lookout

You're falling for western MSM spin

Virtually every other place on the internet I've been accused of being a Kremlin fanboy, a Putin puppet, a Russian operative, etc.
But here I'm "falling for western MSM spin".

Uh, no I'm not.

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CB's picture

@gjohnsit
are making substantial gains in the Donbas.

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CB's picture

@Lookout
for Putin's SMO in Ukraine - independence of the LPR and DPR.

I figure it should be complete by the end of August - mid September latest. It will speed up as the Ukraine forces completely crumble. Then it will be on to Phase 3 - Kharkiv, Nikolaev and Odessa. The longer Ukraine holds out, the more land they will lose. Such is the penalty for not following the Minsk II Accords which they had signed.

I was going to also post them. Both are superb reports of the current situation in Ukraine that many here should view. Maybe you can post them on today's Evening Blues so they get more exposure?

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@Lookout

of the Kiev feint is the most logical I think. In that same time period, Russian missiles were targeting training sites and weapons depots in Western Ukraine, right down to the barracks, right down to the shopping center garage. It seems impossible to believe Kiev forces, even with their anti-tank Javelins, could have prevented Russia from pulverizing Kiev if that was what Russia had intended.

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@Linda Wood @Linda Wood @Linda Wood Most compelling is that Russia used the same strategy at Sumy and Kharkiv and is doing so in Kharkiv again.

The objective is to keep whatever surviving troops exist of Ukrainians busy.

Meanwhile, Chechen forces have been joining Russian "Peacekeepers" in Transnistria so we can make some long term predictions there, also, most likely.

Moldava is the poorest country in Europe with a very small army.

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NYCVG

Lookout's picture

@Linda Wood @NYCVG

the Russians are excellent strategists. They had no intention of invading Kiev with so few troops. The idea was to occupy the troops in Kiev while the real operation in the Donbass was established.

The us strategy of bomb everything to hell and back and then invade isn't Russia's approach especially in a neighboring country whose infrastructure they prefer to leave intact. So US analyst say Russia is progressing slowly and ineffectively. However, on the contrary they are progressing regularly and now have almost secured the entire Donbass. The US is blinded by ignorance and false airs of superiority.

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“Until justice rolls down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream.”

CB's picture

@gjohnsit
The city of almost 3 million could not have been taken, let alone kept, with just 40,000 Russian forces.

The Russian invasion of the Kiev region served two strategic purposes:

A) It was a "shock and awe" attack to force Zelensky to the bargaining table. It worked at first until Boris Johnson made him change his mind.

March 29, 2022 - Russian-Ukrainian talks in Istanbul a success, Putin and Zelensky meeting could happen

May 6, 2022 - Boris Johnson Pressured Zelenskyy to Ditch Peace Talks With Russia: Ukrainian Paper

B) It also served as a feint to fix the Ukrainian army in the northern areas while Putin took advantage of securing the eastern and southern regions where the majority of ethnic Russians live.

Two important important factors were securing a land bridge AND water supply for Crimea. A bonus point was securing the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant (which Russian troops seized w/o a fight in early March just days after the start of the conflict). The ONLY resistance the Russians got in the south was Mariupol which was the headquarters of the Azov battalion for 8 years. Kherson and Melitopol were taken with very little resistance. Ukraine will not have a chance in hell of ever regaining these cities.

Notice the dates on the following maps when Russia withdrew from of Kiev and compare them to the above.

The Russians already knew that the hardest nut to crack would be the Donbass region centered around Donetsk. They had been watching that region being fortified for well over 6 years by NATO supplied and trained forces. If you have a close look at the maps from Military Summary, you will see extensive defensive positions that were constructed during this period.

Censored Reports from Donbass Make Clear Ukraine and Not Russia Started the War—Eight Years Ago
March 13, 2022

The U.S. media and Washington political establishment has been unified in condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and in lauding the Ukrainian resistance.

Censored reports from the Donbass in Eastern Ukraine, however, make clear that the war was started eight years ago by Ukraine–after its legitimate government was overthrown in a U.S.-backed coup (known as the Maidan revolution), and the Donetsk and Luhansk provinces voted to secede.
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(Video from Mar 10, 2022)

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snoopydawg's picture

@NYCVG

I thought the rest of my comment made it clear that MSM is just making shit up to fool people who listen to them.

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It is not until the tide goes out that you discover who has been swimming naked.

@snoopydawg @snoopydawg @snoopydawg I was addressing the absurd notion that Russia ever intended to invade Kiev. Hilarious! Might as well believe in the tooth fairy....Sorry if I slighted your observation.

Today, August 3, actually, from Zelensky:

"Zelensky then made a startling admission about who is winning the war in Ukraine:

“We still cannot break the advantage of the Russian army in artillery and in manpower, and this is very felt in the battles, especially in the Donbass – Peski, Avdiivka, and other directions. It’s just hell. It can’t even be described in words.”

https://t.me/asbmil/3603

From Larry Johnson:

"When you consider the fact that Ukraine’s armed forces outnumbered the Russians who invaded by a factor of 3 to 1, then you have to ask–exactly what “advantage” does the outnumbered Russian army enjoy? The answer is simple–Russia has air supremacy, superior intelligence and electronic warfare capabilities. It is targeting Ukrainian forward command centers and destroying senior brigade and regimental commanders. This strategy decapitates the chain of command on the frontlines and subjects the troops crouching in trenches and bunkers to seemingly unrelenting barrages of missiles and artillery shells. The result is simple–it demoralizes the troops."

His article includes the Video of Zelensky and Videos of Ukrainian Troops leaving the battlefield.

https://sonar21.com/new-batches-of-ukrainian-troops-quitting-the-fight-a...

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NYCVG

@CB and morons

The rest of us know better.

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NYCVG

QMS's picture

@CB

Ukraine is losing. Their insurance premium is coming due. Plus interest on the loans.
The problem with the morons and warmongers is also because they can not see the value
of negotiations. Our State Dept. is on the take for the weapons lobbyists. So why settle for
peace. Is there not enough money to be lost already? The only way this darn skirmish will
end favoritively for our species and others is for all sides to back-down and make a truce
(or two) with the challengers. It is not our requirement to suffer the fates given us by the
power/greed heads. Just sit down at the table with China and Russia, divide the gains, and
move on to the next crisis. Does the EU, US, FR, GB care to help negotiate a reasonable
settlement? Of course not. There are bucks to be made is conflict.

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10 users have voted.

This is the same crap that has been the propaganda du jour for the Western Media for months.
It's disgusting what the US did to provoke this conflict and I hope the Ukrainians wake up to the fact that they are cannon fodder for the MIC ASAP.

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@Dunatus How about a ditto, pal.

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CB's picture

Putin is taking the gloves off.

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@CB real thing, not another feint.

Gonzalo lives there and he may have something on this. I'll be back if I get an up-date.

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NYCVG

link

(Reuters) - The Biden administration's next security assistance package for Ukraine is expected to be $1 billion, one of the largest so far, and include munitions for long-range weapons and armored medical transport vehicles, three sources briefed on the matter told Reuters on Friday.

The package is expected to be announced as early as Monday and would add to about $8.8 billion in aid the United States has given Ukraine since Russia's invasion on Feb. 24.

Can you imagine $10 Billion for getting rid of homelessness?

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TheOtherMaven's picture

@gjohnsit

All they want to do is waste money on weapons, buy more weapons, and waste them too. It simply can't get through to them that 1984 was NOT AN INSTRUCTION MANUAL!!!

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There is no justice. There can be no peace.