Ukraine is about to lose this war
The West media has been trying to sell us that Ukraine will win their war with Russia from the very start, yet a plurality of Americans no longer believe it.
This week's was the first survey since we began asking who is winning the war — about a month after it began — in which more Americans say that Russia is winning (25%) than say Ukraine is (19%). In recent weeks the share who say neither side is winning also has increased, to 38%.
A growing share (29%) also say that Russia will be the eventual winner of the conflict, rather than Ukraine (26%). About as many say they’re not sure who will win (30%).
Vadym Skibitsky, the deputy head of Ukrainian military intelligence, has admitted that Ukraine is losing the war because of Russia's overwhelming advantage in artillery. Russia is using this advantage to grind down Ukrainian forces.
But their already-compromised supply lines are becoming more tenuous, and the sheer magnitude of Russian firepower is grinding down defensive positions.
The reverses suffered in the past few days, after weeks of determined resistance, probably mark the most difficult week for the Ukrainian military since the surrender of the last defenders in Mariupol.
Ukraine is losing 200 soldiers killed every day, according to a senior Ukrainian presidential aide. Plus another 500 are wounded.
In addition, Ukraine is losing $5 to $6 Billion every month. To put that into perspective, Ukraine's GDP is $155 Billion. The National Bank of Ukraine predicts that the GDP will shrink by more than a third.
To offset that, the American taxpayer is going to simply give Ukraine $7.5 Billion. That was very generous of you.
The total amount of aid supplied to Ukraine by international partners since Russia's "invasion" is $30 billion. $10 Billion is in grants, the other $20 Billion in loans.
Ukraine can't maintain losses of this magnitude, militarily or economically, for much longer. Plus, because this is clearly a proxy war, the U.S. and Britain will lose when Ukraine loses.
But, as reflected in the palpable disappointment of the Ukrainians, the EU’s key leaders were clearly signaling the limits of their own support.
This new European stance now places the Biden administration on the horns of a possibly insoluble dilemma, as David Goldman reported in a recent Asia Times article. With the war having reached a critical stage and the world economy reeling from supply shocks in energy and food previously supplied by Russia and Ukraine, Goldman asserts that America’s boasts of “driving Putin from power, destroying Russia’s capacity to make war, and halving the size of Russia’s economy look ridiculous in retrospect.”
...Russia has made strategic territorial gains, so such an outcome would be disastrous for Ukraine — and humiliating for the United States.