Ukraine is about to lose this war

The West media has been trying to sell us that Ukraine will win their war with Russia from the very start, yet a plurality of Americans no longer believe it.

This week's was the first survey since we began asking who is winning the war — about a month after it began — in which more Americans say that Russia is winning (25%) than say Ukraine is (19%). In recent weeks the share who say neither side is winning also has increased, to 38%.
A growing share (29%) also say that Russia will be the eventual winner of the conflict, rather than Ukraine (26%). About as many say they’re not sure who will win (30%).

Vadym Skibitsky, the deputy head of Ukrainian military intelligence, has admitted that Ukraine is losing the war because of Russia's overwhelming advantage in artillery. Russia is using this advantage to grind down Ukrainian forces.

But their already-compromised supply lines are becoming more tenuous, and the sheer magnitude of Russian firepower is grinding down defensive positions.

The reverses suffered in the past few days, after weeks of determined resistance, probably mark the most difficult week for the Ukrainian military since the surrender of the last defenders in Mariupol.

Ukraine is losing 200 soldiers killed every day, according to a senior Ukrainian presidential aide. Plus another 500 are wounded.

In addition, Ukraine is losing $5 to $6 Billion every month. To put that into perspective, Ukraine's GDP is $155 Billion. The National Bank of Ukraine predicts that the GDP will shrink by more than a third.
To offset that, the American taxpayer is going to simply give Ukraine $7.5 Billion. That was very generous of you.
The total amount of aid supplied to Ukraine by international partners since Russia's "invasion" is $30 billion. $10 Billion is in grants, the other $20 Billion in loans.

Ukraine can't maintain losses of this magnitude, militarily or economically, for much longer. Plus, because this is clearly a proxy war, the U.S. and Britain will lose when Ukraine loses.

But, as reflected in the palpable disappointment of the Ukrainians, the EU’s key leaders were clearly signaling the limits of their own support.

This new European stance now places the Biden administration on the horns of a possibly insoluble dilemma, as David Goldman reported in a recent Asia Times article. With the war having reached a critical stage and the world economy reeling from supply shocks in energy and food previously supplied by Russia and Ukraine, Goldman asserts that America’s boasts of “driving Putin from power, destroying Russia’s capacity to make war, and halving the size of Russia’s economy look ridiculous in retrospect.”
...Russia has made strategic territorial gains, so such an outcome would be disastrous for Ukraine — and humiliating for the United States.

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Figure out, Ukrainians, who your enemies really were, and do not repeat the mistake.

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22 users have voted.
yellopig's picture

The next proxy has already volunteered: Lithuania https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/lithuania-says-sanctions-goods-kali...!

For those of you checking your maps right now, Kaliningrad is Russian territory separated from the mainland by Belorussia & Lithuania, similar to how Alaska is separated from the lower 48. It’s like if Canada cut off land and air routes from Washington state to Alaska. Sea routes are available, but why would the guy in the middle suddenly become such an a$$hole? Oh yeah, because our favorite Uncle told him to.

That’s power: when you can just point to a whole country and tell them to commit suicide, and they do it! Even after watching the whole Ukraine thing go down!

Here’s the bonus part: Lithuania is NATO. So if anybody hits Lithuania, Article 5 kicks in and all of NATO gets to go to war. Whee!

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22 users have voted.

“We may not be able to change the system, but we can make the system irrelevant in our lives and in the lives of those around us.”—John Beckett

@yellopig
when it comes to keeping trying to keep a failing Empire alive. The EU has already been thrown under the bus by obediently toeing the Russian sanctions and seem to be facing a very cold and hungry winter.

Treating its ‘friends’ so poorly, it makes me wonder if the US wouldn’t also offer up its own population in defense of it’s hubristic claim to global preeminence and a unipolar world economy.

Something's got to give.

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19 users have voted.

“We have a very small window in which we need to make a fundamental shift away from capitalism.” Kshama Sawant

Cassiodorus's picture

I thought they were merely meant to be prolonged, so that Congress could maximize the amount of money it prints and hands to rich people. Wasn't that, for instance, the point of staying in Afghanistan for as long as the US did?

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20 users have voted.

"The future is inside us/ It's not somewhere else." -- Radiohead

janis b's picture

@Cassiodorus

about Washington's wars. It’s very challenging to know that the US government/military is totally de-sensitised to killing and humiliation; and that financial benefit to the few matter more than the life of so many, worldwide.

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16 users have voted.
Cassiodorus's picture

@janis b is to print money and hand it to rich people. Matt Taibbi:

"... the Fed dumped roughly $4.7 trillion in printed money into the economy in the last two years, creating the illusion of a boom....
Where did that $4.7 trillion go? Virtually across the economic spectrum, we watched people at the top of the income distribution magically achieve personal net worth increases that bore eerie resemblances to the near-doubling of the size of the Fed’s holdings.....

https://taibbi.substack.com/p/blue-and-red-do-have-something-in?r=22681&s=r

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15 users have voted.

"The future is inside us/ It's not somewhere else." -- Radiohead

usefewersyllables's picture

@Cassiodorus

is business". Well, wholesale death is our last remaining export, so there you go.

Peace is not profitable. Therefore, there will be no peace.

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17 users have voted.

Twice bitten, permanently shy.

Ukraine is a NATO trained and armed nation. When Russia wins this Special Military Operation some conclusions are not very positive for the US/EU.

- Russia militarily beat NATO in a European ground war. This outcome should have been obvious. No amount of training and arming could bring Ukraine up to the level of Russia. This clearly had to be a result of dismissing Russia by virtue of Rusophobia. In any land war near Russia it is now likely that NATO could not prevail. NATO membership for the Baltic states decreases their security

- Both Ukraine and the US and NATO have proven beyond a shadow of a doubt that they are collectively agreement incapable. Poroshenko just admitted publicly that Ukraine never intended to implement the Minsk Accords. The West never intended to force Ukraine to adhere to the Accords. This makes a negotiated settlement extremely unlikely and guarantees the virtual end of Ukraine as a Western asset.

- Russia has come to the conclusion that their move towards the West in the 1990s was a mistake. They are now fully behind creating an non-Western world with China, India, and all of the Global South. This will be a huge blow to US economic and military hegemony and the US dollar.

-

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20 users have voted.

Capitalism has always been the rule of the people by the oligarchs. You only have two choices, eliminate them or restrict their power.

lotlizard's picture

@The Wizard  
become an innovation hub for Latin America!

And then Alaska secedes and begins working with Russia and China, and engineers from all three countries build a system of tunnels and bridges across the Bering Strait, as part of the Belt and Road Initiative!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bering_Strait_crossing

Which subset of Americans, realizing the present setup is failing, will be the first to ditch the war-and-empire-chained status quo and embrace a new, more harmonious way forward for the planet based on sovereignty and mutual respect?

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11 users have voted.

@lotlizard "...Another source of confusion and misinformation over the years has been language in the 1845 annexation resolution that Texas could, in the future, choose to divide itself into “New States of convenient size not exceeding four in number, in addition to said State of Texas.” But the language of the resolution says merely Texas could be split into five new states. It says nothing of splitting apart from the United States. Only Congress has the power to admit new states to the Union, which last occurred in 1959 with the admission of Alaska and Hawaii.

If there were any doubt remaining after this matter, the late Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia set it to rest when he asked by a screenwriter in 2006 whether there was a legal basis for secession. In his response, he wrote: “The answer is clear,” Scalia wrote. “If there was any constitutional issue resolved by the Civil War, it is that there is no right to secede. (Hence, in the Pledge of Allegiance, ‘one Nation, indivisible.’)”
https://www.texastribune.org/2021/01/29/texas-secession/

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4 users have voted.
lotlizard's picture

@aliasalias  
since 1776.

“When in the course of human events…” … an existing system of government so obviously no longer observes or feels itself in any way bound by its own supposed principles and rules, people have the God-given right to separate from such an unresponsive and arbitrary ruling elite and system — that’s stipulated right in the Declaration of Independence.

Since when have Americans ever let change be held back by conventions, even if everyone might previously have thought they were agreed-upon settled truths?

Wasn’t Oklahoma supposed to be Indian Territory in perpetuity?

Or, more recently, didn’t most people think they knew what “man” or “woman” meant, reaching back in time to, well, to Adam and Eve? Surprise! Suddenly sources (at least the yet-uncancelled, censor-approved ones) all say different now…

That “phase change” in mentality occurred practically overnight.

As the political, economic, and meteorological temperature rises, a unified striving to return sovereignty to lower, more local levels, closer to and more directly controlled by The People / the 99%, could well also set in very rapidly — as just such a phase change.

If Texas chooses the way of Catalonia, who ya gonna side with? Ordinary people, or the 1% ≈ the heirs of Franco’s fascists in “Madrid” ≈ imperial HQ in Washington DC?

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5 users have voted.

@lotlizard getting its way lately on God, guns and, possibly in the near future, gays, why would they want to secede?

Seems more likely a runaway unaccountable Court and some crazy state legislatures could create the impetus for the blue states to begin talking about a hopeless situation requiring a parting of the ways.

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4 users have voted.
QMS's picture

“Americans should not go abroad to slay dragons they do not understand in the name of spreading democracy.”

~

And the American people are paying the price both in terms of decline in standards of living due to the upheaval created in Ukraine and elsewhere as well as a completely understandable loss of faith in the US system of government. By all means, let us shrink the US military until it is responsive to actual identifiable threats.

Philip M. Giraldi, Ph.D

councilforthenationalinterest.org

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19 users have voted.
Pluto's Republic's picture

...one may wonder how

All is well in the world when the US illegally invades as many as seven nations, waging a mix of wars over a twenty year period, with intense spending, endless money printing, loss of life, tens of millions of dislocated people wandering the earth, weaponizing both sides, turning cities to rubble, constant loss of life, billions of dollars worth of equipment abandoned, sanctions on any country that complains, embassies closed, diplomats expelled, treaties broken, oil stolen. assassinations, war crimes, chemical weapons attacks, drug running, arms dealing, nations destroyed, genocide, and every bit of it illegal.

During the wide spread endless US wars, not once did world's key critical supply chains break down around the world at the same time, resulting in empty shelves in the grocery store and shortages else where. During the long and pointless war on terror, Americans were never once told that they face death by starvation next year because of the war. A couple of months of US war never once resulted in sudden historic price inflation that instantly destroyed significant levels the dollar's purchasing power, both at the grocery store and the gas pump. Twenty years of massive US war spending never once caused an inflation that is so severe and unexpected that even the Federal Reserve can't figure out how to control it. Never during the corrupt US wars were people told they could be living the last days of their lives.

But four months into comparatively tiny war that the US pretends it is not fighting — Americans are told they are doomed to starvation or perhaps nuclear radiation from WWIII. It seems that the end of the world as we know it can only occur when Putin is fighting a small war with its neighbor just on the other side of a shared section of Russia's border. Doom is only predicted when Russia is fighting in a small area occupied by besieged ethnic Russians, while Russia is spending only a fraction of what the US spends on global murder and mayhem on any given day. Meanwhile, the EU chickenhawks are now certain they will be invaded by Russia because a fraction of Russia's army population is engaged in street fighting with NeoNazis in a small section of Ukraine, with virtually no support from air strikes. In the US, Americans are being cut off from medical support from pandemic infections, because the US gave its safety-net pandemic cash to Ukraine to kill Russians. Ukraine will ONLY spend OTHER PEOPLE'S money to arm its Neonazi militias to fight wars it cannot afford — wars that it could stop at any time by pledging NATO neutrality, instead of threatening to murder Russian speakers inside its borders.

Americans have so little curiosity.

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20 users have voted.

____________________
Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities.
— Voltaire

ggersh's picture

@Pluto's Republic amerika is lead by failure and therefore will soon be a failed state if not already. Privatizing everything from the govt on down has turned everything into shit.

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/06/two-big-errors-about-russia-by-hel...

Two Big Errors About Russia - By Helmholtz Smith

by Helmholtz Smith

American and Western policy towards Russia is founded on two serious errors. (A considerable understatement, of course – the past thirty years show that conventional Western ideas of Russia are almost completely wrong.)

But these two are endlessly repeated and, no matter how many times they are proven wrong, they remain the foundational assumptions of the West's attempts to change or control Russia.

First is the idea that the Russian economy is feeble, unbalanced and dependent on income from the West. The second is that Putin is the chief of a band of thieves who, who if made to feel pain, will get rid of him. Sanctions will collapse the first and bring the pain to cause the second. (Another delusion is that once Putin goes, everything will be to the West's liking – but I did say there was a multitude of misconceptions.)

First let's consider Russia's economy. Op-eds that say that the Russian economy is the size of Texas or Belgium or Luxembourg or whatever simply translate rubles into dollars and gallop to their preassigned conclusion. They never ask how big the space program of the country Russia is compared to is, or how many nuclear submarines it makes, or new subway stations, airports or bridges it opens, or whether that country makes all kinds of airplanes and trucks, or how much food it grows and exports or anything else that actually measures a real economy.

As soon as they did, of course, they would see that the Russian economy is much bigger than the puerile ruble-dollar comparison suggests. And, a slightly closer look would reveal that Russia's economy is almost self-sufficient. But the West carries on confident that Russia is a "gas station with nuclear weapons" and its feeble economy can be easily collapsed. RAND based a whole strategy on "Russia’s greatest vulnerability... is its economy, which is comparatively small and highly dependent on energy exports

They persist in the face of all experience to the contrary. The EU cut food exports to Russia to, I suppose, bring people out into the streets protesting the disappearance of exotic cheese (remember Masha Gessen's heartbreak about my little cheese?) Russia responded intelligently and is now self-sufficient in food and Europe has lost that market. Biden was going to reduce the ruble to rubble but Moscow effortlessly countered him and the ruble is now tied to energy – one of the strongest foundations a currency can have.

And still the sanctions pile on. But it's educational – now we know a lot more about what potash is used for and where it comes from. And neon – who knew that was important? Rare earths! Beer bottles! Moscow is only just now starting to counter-sanction and the world is discovering that Russia is a major producer of a lot of important things and if you sanction them, you will find yourself running short of lots of things you'd never heard of. (You'd think anyone who owned an atlas would be able to figure out that a country as large as Russia must be a big producer of most resources).

Biden can blame Putin all he likes, but sanctioning energy and potash is a certain way to drive up prices all round. Biden used to think that Russia had "nuclear weapons and oil wells and nothing else". Maybe the people running Russia are better at thinking things out and seeing reality than we thought they were. (Yet another mistaken Western assumption – what is there in the last twenty years that suggests we're smarter than they are?)

The idea that Russia is a big criminal conspiracy and Putin is the Boss of Bosses is the foundation of the personal sanctions strategy. So-and-so is deemed "close to Putin", whatever that means, and he's prevented from going to Paris to buy cheese and his yacht is stolen confiscated. Angry, he sits down with the other capos and decides it's time the Boss was found face down in a bowl of kasha and blood. The think tankers tell us that Putin is the Chief Thief holding onto power by spreading the loot around, fake elections and making critics disappear. (By the way, wasn't he supposed to have tried to kill Navalny, where's the oped savant explaining why he's still alive?)

All elections in Russia are fake, all opinion polls are fake, all media is controlled by the Kremlin, the underbosses are hurting so why is Putin still there? It surely couldn't be that he is the very popular and respected elected head of state – to suggest that would be to call into question three decades of US and EU think tankery. Therefore he must be just one more sanction away from being whacked out. And so more names – all "close to Putin" – are added to more lists. But nothing changes.

These two errors run on and on. Russia is now the most sanctioned country ever and Western politicians still think another round of "tough sanctions" will do the job. But the more sanctions it survives, the more sanction-proof Russia becomes.

Wars are irruptions of brutal reality into fantasy and the Ukraine war is laying bare the empty complacency at the root of the West's view of Russia. It's going to be a cold hungry winter in Europe and in parts of America. Can't blame Putin forever.

But the depressing truth is that minds are rarely changed, you have to change the man. How much longer will the West's leaders outlast their repeated failures?

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16 users have voted.

“Those who choose the lesser evil forget very quickly that they chose evil.”
— Hannah Arendt

With the imminent defeat of the Ukr army in Donbass, it seems more likely that NATO will invade Western Ukr. Maybe move in t