Welcome to Saturday's Potluck - 6-17-2022
“Learn the rules like a pro, so you can break them like an artist.”
Pablo Picasso
How to identify an expert with deep knowledge of a subject from someone with a superficial understanding who uses all the contemporary phrases of an "expert" is one of the skills to identify propaganda. When the inputs (questions) and outputs (answers) are controlled anyone can look like an expert.
Now, anyone whose academic background includes computer science or artificial intelligence is probably very familiar with the The Chinese Room thought experiment. My entry into high tech was a different route, focused solely on specific projects with defined objectives not theory. As with many subjects the learning process has not fit typical academic progression.
The Chinese Room (3.57 minutes)
[video:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D0MD4sRHj1M]
A little deeper into look into Artificial Intelligence and John Searle's Chinese Room. (28.37 min)
[video:https://youtu.be/tBE06SdgzwM?t=19]
Interesting theme of proper documentation and emergency action by an authoritative source pops up in the saga of a shipwreck off the Oregon coast.
First, an Oregonian article mentions the lack of documentation by the Native Americans living on the coast as to the fate of the Spanish sailors. It left me wondering if the researcher and article author expected written documentation in English to be performed about 100 years before Americans or English were on the Western coast. Maybe a written diary by one of the sailors would have been sufficient.
The ship, a Spanish galleon, left Manila in 1693, hauling porcelain, pottery and valuable wax that gave the ship its nickname – Beeswax
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According to The Astorian, James Delgado, a marine archaeologist, helped lead the retrieval efforts and will continue to study the shipwreck remains at the Columbia River Maritime Museum in Astoria.Delgado told The Astorian that he does not think these remains, a few wooden beams, will answer any of the big questions that remain of the cause of the shipwreck or what happened to anyone on board, but says it is a step in the direction that may lead to further discoveries.
Smaller discoveries like pieces of the porcelain, pottery and beeswax the ship was carrying have washed up on the Oregon Coast for hundreds of years to be found by beachcombers. These small discoveries propped up the mythos of the shipwreck.
The Astorian said that oral traditions of native people to the area say that their ancestors had some contact with survivors but little is known or documented about what happened to the Spanish aboard the ship.
Second, defining the recovering of old timbers as an Emergency Operation seems a bit more chaotic than well planned archeological excavation.
After reading the National Geographic article, it appears Europe was outsourcing the building of European ships to Asia in the 1600's. Outsourcing is not a new economic model.
Legendary Spanish galleon shipwreck discovered on Oregon coast National Geographic June 16, 2022
Astoria, Oregon Timbers from the wreck of a 17th-century Spanish galleon have been discovered on Oregon’s northern coast, state officials confirmed today.
The extraordinarily rare hull remains were removed from sea caves near Manzanita earlier this week in a risky emergency recovery mission involving archaeologists, law enforcement personnel, and search-and-rescue teams from multiple state and local agencies.
“I’m impressed and relieved,” says Scott Williams, an archaeologist with the Washington State Department of Transportation and president of the Maritime Archaeology Society (MAS), an all-volunteer group that spearheaded a 15-year search for the shipwreck.
The dozen timbers are believed to be pieces of the Santo Cristo de Burgos, a Spanish galleon that was sailing from the Philippines to Mexico in 1693 when it veered off course and vanished, most likely wrecking on what’s now Oregon’s coast. Its cargo included costly Chinese silk, porcelain, and blocks of beeswax for making candles.
Santo Cristo de Burgos was a Manilla galleon, a type of sturdy wooden vessel that plied an annual trade route between Spanish colonies in the Philippines and Mexico from 1565-1815, a period that marked the first era of global trade. The workhorse European ships were built in Asian ports by Asian craftspeople using Asian materials.
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The Chinese ceramics and Asian beeswax blocks with Spanish markings led them to conclude that the Beeswax Wreck had to be one of two Manilla galleons that went missing between roughly 1650 and 1750: the Santo Cristo de Burgos, which was lost in 1693, or the San Francisco Xavier, which disappeared in 1705.
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MAS researchers were then fairly confident that the Beeswax Wreck and the Santo Cristo de Burgos were one and the same vessel.
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Craig Andes is one of those beachcombers, a commercial fisherman who belonged to a “Goonies gang” of kids who grew up exploring the coast, inspired by tales of treasure. He began sharing his knowledge of the area’s artifacts with MAS after reading about their hunt for the Beeswax Wreck.That information included the presence of bits of wood in sea caves that Andes first spotted in 2013. He kept a watchful eye on them and strongly believed they were ship timbers. He also grew concerned that the smaller pieces were at risk of being washed away. So in 2020 he contacted the MAS and urged them to test a sample of the wood.
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“I was convinced it was driftwood,” MAS president Williams recalls. “To think that 300-year-old ship timbers could survive the Oregon coast was just crazy.”A lab analysis revealed that the timbers were hewn from Anacardiaceae, a species of tropical hardwood found in Asia. Radiocarbon dating indicated that the tree was felled around 1650. Both facts lined up squarely with the composition and age of the Santo Cristo.
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Andes watched the activity from the beach, marveling at the complex choreography. Nearly a decade had passed since he spotted the timbers, and as the first, and largest, piece was towed ashore, he ran his hand fondly along the glistening surface, pointing to a large spike hole. "Looks like there's still metal in there," he observed.The timbers are now at the Columbia River Maritime Museum in Astoria, where they’ll be carefully documented and conserved. Each timber will be scanned in detail, and the scans will be shared with Manilla galleon experts around the world to better understand how the extraordinary ships were built.
A little more info at Maritime Archaelogical Society
Beeswax Wreck Project
Timeline of the Beeswax Wreck Site
Varying explanations of the shipwreck from 1814 forward.
1814: Fur trader Alexander Henry of Astoria writes in his journal, “They [the Clatsop Indians] bring us frequently lumps of beeswax, fresh out of the sand, which they collect on the coast so the S. [South], where the Spanish ship was cast away some years ago, and crew all murdered by the natives.”
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1870: Writing in 1899, Samuel Clarke noted that when he first came to the Nehalem area in 1870 that “the bones of two wrecks were then to be seen at the mouth of the Nehalem river.”
Significant news related to Taiwan for the week.
Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Wang Wenbin’s Regular Press Conference on June 13, 2022
In response to the Bloomberg reporter it appears China will be pushing back on the US definition of International Waters.
Bloomberg: We reported that Chinese military officials have repeatedly asserted that the Taiwan Strait is not international waters in recent months during meetings with US counterparts. Does the foreign ministry have any comment on this?
Wang Wenbin: Taiwan is an inalienable part of China’s territory. The Taiwan Strait ranges in width from about 70 nautical miles at its narrowest and 220 nautical miles at its widest. According to UNCLOS and Chinese laws, the waters of the Taiwan Strait, extending from both shores toward the middle of the Strait, are divided into several zones including internal waters, territorial sea, contiguous zone, and the Exclusive Economic Zone. China has sovereignty, sovereign rights and jurisdiction over the Taiwan Strait. At the same time, it respects the lawful rights of other countries in relevant waters.
There is no legal basis of “international waters” in the international law of the sea. It is a false claim when certain countries call the Taiwan Strait “international waters” in order to find a pretext for manipulating issues related to Taiwan and threatening China’s sovereignty and security. China is firmly against this.
Taiwan’s advanced technology makes it indispensable Asia Time June 15, 2022
The world is becoming more dependent on the Taiwanese semiconductor industry, not less, even as the war of words between the US and China heats up and people talk about the lessons to be learned from Ukraine.
According to the latest quarterly World Fab Forecast released by SEMI on June 13, Taiwan is expected to lead global spending on semiconductor production equipment this year, with a 52% increase to US$34 billion.
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At the leading edge, TSMC has a monopoly on 3-nanometer process technology and is overwhelmingly dominant at 5-nanometer. Production at the 3-nanometer node is scheduled to start this year with orders from Intel, AMD, Nvidia, Qualcomm, Apple and MediaTek.
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On June 10, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, delivering the keynote speech at the Shangri-La Dialogue conference in Singapore, said: “I myself have a strong sense that Ukraine today may be the East Asia [of] tomorrow.”What does that mean? That America and its allies might stand back and watch while Taiwan is blasted to rubble? Let’s hope not. The island and its semiconductor industry are too important for that to be allowed to happen.
Taiwan Touts "Ability To Attack Beijing" With Supersonic Cruise Missiles ZeroHedge June 16, 2022
You Si Kun, President of Taiwan’s Legislative Assembly, recently said in a media interview that Taiwan's military wouldn't shy away from using its Yun Feng supersonic cruise missiles if under direct invasion threat. "Yung Fend missiles can already hit Beijing, and Taiwan has the ability to attack Beijing," You said, as cited in Liberty Times Net, and further described in Fox News. Supersonic missiles are capable of traveling faster than Mach 1
The top official invoked the example of Russia's rapid, 'surprise' invasion of Ukraine - suggesting that military preparedness as well as basic geography would stall a Chinese PLA advance deep into the island.
EDITORIAL: Containing China the only option Taipei Times June 15, 2022
Over the weekend, a war of words broke out between Washington and Beijing at the Shangri-La Dialogue security summit in Singapore, turning the annual powwow into less of a dialogue and more of an exchange of angry monologues.
During an address to delegates at the summit on Sunday, Chinese Minister of National Defense General Wei Fenghe (魏鳳和) did not mince his words: “Let me make this clear: If anyone dares to secede Taiwan from China, we will not hesitate to fight. We will fight at all costs and we will fight to the very end. This is the only choice for China.”
The day before, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin had used his address to warn that China had unilaterally changed the “status quo” in the Taiwan Strait.
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China’s bellicose rhetoric at the Shangri-La Dialogue and its attempt to unilaterally redefine international maritime law is yet more proof that Beijing cannot be an equal competitor since it has tossed the rule book into the fire: The only viable option for Washington is containment.
What is on your mind today?
Comments
Yes, we still occupy Iraq
link
There is, as usual, I'm sure, no evidence that they are,
in fact, Iranian proxies, nor that, whoever they are, they were not invited in by the legitimate governments of the nations we are occupying against their will, Syria and Iraq. Every act by every US soldier in either country is an act of war, wo we have no right to whine if resistance elements attack us.
be well and have a good one
That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --
Iraq is the location for one of the US's many proxy wars.
Iraq formal request was after the passing vote on January 5, 2020 in Iraqi Parliament to have U.S. forces to leave the country.
Iraq and Syria are two countries which have asked the US to remove the troops from their nations soil.Why Are American Troops Still in Iraq? New York Times February 10, 2022
Iraq politics is going through a major shift. The alliance between Muqtada al-Sadr's political organization, the Sadrist movement, Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP)and United Sunni Front has collapsed.
Muqtada al-Sadr just issued a mass resignation decree. Where does Iraq go from here? Atlantic Couincil June 14, 2022
For anyone needing a recap on Iraqi Shi'ite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, this article is a good read.
Iraq's Sadr: From Outlaw to Top Politician U.S. News & World Report June 14, 2022
Thanks for keeping another hot spot on our radar.
Still yourself, deep water can absorb many disturbances with minimal reaction.
--When the opening appears release yourself.
Oh boy a war with China...
...just what we need.
Interesting salvage story of the ship. So much of our history lies under the ocean. During the ice ages oceans were much smaller and coastal villages of those times are now far under the sea. So much yet to learn.
Thanks for the OT. Another warm one here, but only light chores planned for the day. Had a pleasant stroll around Trade Day and visited with a few friends. Hope you all have a nice day!
“Until justice rolls down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream.”
The wish for sane heads to get US off this track is
Working on keeping the day to day life enjoyable seems the best alternative for powerless individuals.
Still yourself, deep water can absorb many disturbances with minimal reaction.
--When the opening appears release yourself.
Here I am, in a tiny town
with a population of 700 people, more or less, and I was close pals with two gentlemen that were certified to go in the deepest waters, as deep as equipment allowed. Both of them told me stories about being hired by the Smithsonian and National Geographic, even foreign countries, to find and explore shipwrecks. They were amazing.
Fascinating, SOE, about the shipwreck.
I will check out the thought experiment while I eat lunch.
War with China? The US has gone completely off the damn rails. When the government runs out of any intelligent plans and policies, the resort is to threaten or actually go to war. Stupid, deadly mistakes are being made.
We are going to a music store to buy guitar picks, then off we go for groceries. That may not sound very fun, but there will be lots of music blasting as I drive.
I hope everyone has a pleasant and productive day!
"We'll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American public believes is false." ---- William Casey, CIA Director, 1981
Rural communities have some very
So is a Jam session in the works, piano and guitar melodies?
Still yourself, deep water can absorb many disturbances with minimal reaction.
--When the opening appears release yourself.
Alarming analysis
today from Gonzalo Lira about what he sees upcoming in UKR. With diminishing hope for a favorable outcome for UKR forces against the superior Russian army, and with increasing economic and political difficulty over here, Biden, prodded by his hawkish NatSec team, and Nato will likely seek to avoid clear defeat by widening the conflict by creating obstacles in Lithuania wrt Russian rail access to its enclave in Kaliningrad, Meanwhile per Lira, Poland is apparently gathering troops on its border with Russia ally Belarus. GL sees the possibility of the US using nukes over there when it becomes clear they cannot win through conventional means on the battlefield.
I'm halfway into a recent talk by John Mearsheimer who is also pessimistic that the UKR war will end soon. Russia will not accept less than victory and the achievement of its stated goals there, while the US cannot accept defeat and is not inclined to engage in serious negotiations as it cannot accept the basic objective of Russia of creating a neutral UKR. JM emphasizes the dangers of protracted wars and how they tend to escalate, and also discusses the possibility of both sides possibly using nukes.
When there is no plan B,
there is no choice but to either admit defeat or double-down. Gonzalo usually laughs freely, some may say inappropriately so, in his video talks, but this warning message to Americans is all business.
Russia feels it was confronting an “existential” threat when it entered Ukraine in February in order to prevent a major assault on ethnic Russians in eastern Ukraine. If the US (Biden administration) feels the same way about the possible loss of US
preeminencedominance of the World both economically and militarily, and there is no plan B to deescalate, neither is there the least willingness to adjust to life in a multi polar World, then the unthinkable becomes more likely than not.Good thing they taught me how to “duck and cover” in elementary school. Finally that skill might be put to the test.
“ …and when we destroy nature, we diminish our capacity to sense the divine,and understand who God is, and what our own potential is and duties are as human beings.- RFK jr. 8/26/2024
Yes, Gonzalo
It's a shame FP isn't discussed in more depth in our presidential campaigns, though in this last one during covid not much campaigning happened, and any FP questions in the debate run by our MSM are always slanted in favor of the neocon NatSec state mindset.
Iow, what Biden has been doing in UKR and the harsh sanctions against Russia, both aggressive postures poking the bear and threatening us all with a direct conflict, all are not something I signed up for when I cast my vote in Nov 2020 for Joe, a vote that was more 95% against the other guy.
Paused in relection when Gonzalo mentioned Lithuania as
Lithuania government threw it's country into the middle of the China-Taiwan spat at the end of last year.
How a tiny European country took on China over Taiwan CNN Jan 30, 2022.
It is sad the populations of these proxy conflicts are the first to be ground up in the process of war.
Still yourself, deep water can absorb many disturbances with minimal reaction.
--When the opening appears release yourself.
Lithuania: from a comment today at MoA
At the behest of NATO (aka US) this provocation of Lithuania is designed to become a “second front” that Russia will feel compelled to respond to militarily, creating a possible entry point for direct combat with US troops. From that point things can only get worse.
Is EVERYONE in DC insane, willing to risk a nuclear exchange, or is this somehow meant to be held to bluster and pre-election deflection from domestic troubles?
Lithuania to block rail cargo to Kaliningrad
“ …and when we destroy nature, we diminish our capacity to sense the divine,and understand who God is, and what our own potential is and duties are as human beings.- RFK jr. 8/26/2024
We are watching a slow moving wreck and have no
Loosing sides of many national civil wars have migrated to the US to regroup and try again to politically control their home countries. They provide our international merchants, military and intelligence agencies entry points and cannon fodder to interfere around the world.
edit - Link to Moon of Alabama blog and comment thread Ukraine - The West's Response As It Meets With Reality 6-18-2022 (24th comment)
Still yourself, deep water can absorb many disturbances with minimal reaction.
--When the opening appears release yourself.
Thanks for MoA
Biden and his NatSec team of neocons, and all the rest in the NS community, along with the compliant and hawkish MSM, have the FP field virtually all to themselves as there has been for a long time no strong organized voice on the sane progressive left to stand in their way. Bernie is absent or has caved, and the half a dozen other progressives in congress usually lie low on foreign matters. With no opposition, and with the geriatric Biden long set in his ways apparently, it's not a huge surprise that we find ourselves in the dangerous and absurd situation we face today.
Good morning SOE. Thanks for the infor and OT.
Thanks also for the vids which I will catch later on today.
Just back from farmers' market which was a bit more crowded than usual and also included a dude playing a Chapman Stick, and doing it pretty well too. Finally get to have my second coffee, which is very invigorating. It is supposed to be gardening day and catch-up day, but some other things have come up, so it will be a bit of everything and I'm already losing track.
It's possible that the documentation sought wrt the shipwreck would be in the form of petroglyphs, petrographs, wood carvings and the like. It seems that the narrative provided by the white invaders should carry a lot of weight because they really have no financial or other interest in fabricating their narrative. To the extent supported by and supportive of oral traditions it is even more evidentiary. It is interesting how we think about such matters, wikipedia being a great example. If you can cite any writing in a footnote then x is true. If there were 800 eyewitnesses, one of whom is writing the article but none of whom made a contemporary writing, then x is pure speculation.
Ah well,, time to get getting and sort out today's revised agenda.
be well and have a good one
That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --
Imagine the "ignorance" of ships and possible survivors was
Thanks for stopping by
Still yourself, deep water can absorb many disturbances with minimal reaction.
--When the opening appears release yourself.
Husband is tuning his dobro
and locals are welcome to come and play.
I don't know if anyone could tune my baby grand to A-440, so I should score some 2 octave organ keyboard, join in the fray. Pawn shopping in the future!
Meanwhile, CCR is blasting on Bluetooth, and I remember my parents LOVED them as much as I did!
There's a bad moon on the rise is like, no shit!
"We'll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American public believes is false." ---- William Casey, CIA Director, 1981
Manila Galleon...
Interesting. I've got some personal history with Manzanita, OR - but had never heard the story of that shipwreck.
Construction of those ships doesn't sound much like 'outsourcing' as we know it. They were never intended for anything other than trans-Pacific trade on the one route so it hardly would make sense to build them in Europe. Most were constructed in the Philippines and a few in Mexico under the supervision of European shipwrights.
It took decades for the Spanish to figure out viable routes both ways across between Acapulco and Manila - turns out that to go east it was necessary to first go north as far as northern Japan and then across - most often landfall was (what's now) Northern California - which helps explain why a ship headed for Southern Mexico could end up in Oregon. Westward leg was somewhat to the south of Hawaii, usually making landfall at Guam before continuing on to Manila.
Support for the galleons near their initial landfall was an important factor in motivating Spain to extend its control into Alta California...
A Manila galleon of the early 1700's figures fictionally in the second volume (The Confusion) of Neal Stephenson's Baroque Cycle trilogy.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manila_galleon