Craziness in Nevada....has Bernie WON Nevada?!?
Someone who understands Nevada caucuses more than me, jump in and correct me if I'm wrong. I'm getting information from various places, and there is some confusion.
It started with this:
Clinton 2390 delegates. Sanders 2958 delegates. #ccdp2016
— Clark County Dems (@ClarkDems) April 2, 2016
Apparently, Clark is roughly 75% of Nevada's voting population?
Now on reddit, someone has said that Bernie won Washoe county 54% to 46%. That's another 15% of the state.
It's thought that Bernie may have swung 4 to 5 delegates his way from Hillary, making an 8-to-10 delegate swing!
Again, all of this is just rolling in, and, frankly, not sure how this even happened at this point, but let's hope for the best!
GO BERNIE!
======UPDATE!======
2386 final for Clinton. 2964 final delegates for Sanders. Total delegates: 5357 #ccdp2016
— Clark County Dems (@ClarkDems) April 3, 2016
Comments
Another tweet
she is still updating
she is still updating
https://twitter.com/meganmesserly
and she posted yesterday
THIS so maybe keep an eye on her at that Las Vegas Sun?
Thanks for the links.
“I never did give them hell. I just told the truth, and they thought it was hell.”
― Harry Truman
telebob wrote this earlier...
Looks like Clinton folks didn't show up when they should have.
Nevada's Humboldt County Democratic Convention - a participant review
Thanks for the linky! h/t
If you plant ice, you're gonna harvest wind. -R. Hunter/J. Garcia
h/t
but but but ...
... they're more enthusiastic!!
my guess is that Campaign Clinton put Nevada behind them the minute the press reported that they had won. these are not thoughtful people, and they have contempt for the voters they are soliciting. all they cared about was the narrative. i assume they're still assuming they can bury Sanders over the next 3 weeks, they're going to win by hundreds of delegates, and they don't need a handful here or there from Nevada.
The earth is a multibillion-year-old sphere.
The Nazis killed millions of Jews.
On 9/11/01 a Boeing 757 (AA77) flew into the Pentagon.
AGCC is happening.
If you cannot accept these facts, I cannot fake an interest in any of your opinions.
It has something to do with the way a caucus works.
I understand that the first vote is just that, only the first vote. The delegates (somebody) has to go back several more times and they vote and vote. If one side's supporters gives up and no shows, the other side gets their votes.
"Religion is what keeps the poor from murdering the rich."--Napoleon
Caucus, County Convention, State Convention
Today was the County Convention, and it looks like we gained some. We still have to show up at the State Convention to keep those gains. It's truly undemocratic, but that's not unusual in the Democratic Party.
If you plant ice, you're gonna harvest wind. -R. Hunter/J. Garcia
Very un-democratic
even if it swings things to Bernie's favor, caucuses suck.
Gold is the wealth of kings; silver is the wealth of commoners; barter is the wealth of peasants; and debt is the wealth of slaves.
the only thing I like about caucuses
is apparently it's more difficult to do outright election fraud (illegal voter purges, etc) in a caucus format.
Well, also that it involves citizens talking to each other about their votes.
Maybe something could be organized that kept these good bits of the caucus format and got rid of the labyrinthine bureaucratic undemocratic crap.
"More for Gore or the son of a drug lord--None of the above, fuck it, cut the cord."
--Zack de la Rocha
"I tell you I'll have nothing to do with the place...The roof of that hall is made of bones."
-- Fiver
In Iowa I watched
a bunch of caucus videos where they released everybody after the first vote and the confusion among the partisipant was absurd. Some Bernie supports went and talked to the dude who was in charge and he got all flustered and shook bits of papers at them. Meanwhile people were walking out the door. All and all if you look closely at voting in the US it's about as reliable as dipping people's fingers in purple ink and declaring it democracy.
Believe me they like it like this. They play the good old Feds vs. States for all it's worth which has evolved to a fine tuning of keeping the power centralized while giving the appearance of hey states have rights. Too bad they took away all the checks and balances of power cause 'terrist's are gonna kill yer family' and lunatic fanatical constitutional fundie's along with in the bag corporate so called moderate Supremes are declared the final word. When they selected Bush I got permanent contempt of court. So absurd to base all legality on a bunch of creepy robed people.
An Iowan
who saw bizarre shit packaged as regular old generic shit. Bernie loved that he got a virtual tiebin my state. A less decent human (i.e. any other human creature willing to run for president) would have railed against the multilayered bullshit he had to suck up to accept the tie and move forward. Caucuses suck. Closed primaries suck. What he and we deserve is to have our votes desired and accepted, as citizens of the fucking USA. Caucuses and closed primaries are different ways of telling peasants that they don't count.
I can live with closed primaries
if only to avoid dirty tricks -- for example, in 2004 or 2012 when you had a sitting President who no one was going to primary, voters from that President's party crossing over to vote for someone who would be easy to beat. And it could be argued that since the Party (Dem or Repub) is electing their representative, it's only fair to limit votes to members of that party. Sucks for the "no party affiliation" folks (of which I'm about to join their ranks), and it's hell on election workers trying to keep track of all the different ballots (worked a primary election back in 1996 under the old rules with the multiplicity of parties).
A big reason I am against Closed primaries
Is that we are at a time where independents outnumber Democrats significantly and we need to grow our party and not become more exclusionary.
If we can get them in Voting for a Progressive Dem, then we are one step closer to bringing them into the party.
Nothing can depress participation in our party more than saying, "Naaa, your vote doesn't matter to us because you are not wearing our team jersey."
We need to include independents, because if we don't it is quite possible that we will end up selecting candidates that they won't support and costing us those seats.
Sure, it leaves open the possibility for ratfucking to occur, but I think that is a smaller problem than our parties dwindling numbers.
But I also freely admit that I could be completely wrong, after all, I am just some asshole with a keyboard and an internet connection, lol!
"I used to vote Republican & Democrat, I also used to shit my pants. Eventually I got smart enough to stop doing both things." -Me
No. Closed primaries are giving rise to dirty tricks.
That's why people's voter registrations are being illegally changed, w/out their knowledge and consent.
At the very least, we should have hybrid primaries, where indies can vote as they like.
"More for Gore or the son of a drug lord--None of the above, fuck it, cut the cord."
--Zack de la Rocha
"I tell you I'll have nothing to do with the place...The roof of that hall is made of bones."
-- Fiver
I can truthfully say...
That on several occasions I have registered as a Republican to vote in their closed primary...
When it comes down to your candidate of choice winning, the best thing to do is vote early, and vote often...
I'm the only person standing between Richard Nixon and the White House."
~John F. Kennedy~
Economic: -9.13, Social: -7.28,
US elections ranked worst among Western democracies
https://theconversation.com/american-elections-ranked-worst-among-wester...
Plenty of reasons. Many are on display this election cycle, when the insiders club is in major defensive mode against the biggest threat it's faced since MLK and before that, FDR.
"It is no measure of health to be well adjusted to a profoundly sick society." --Jiddu Krishnamurti
I think Clinton
still wins the state.
Here is why: the allocation of delegates at the CD level is based on the vote on Feb 20. The vote that will change is from the 12 elected at the state level.
So it would go from 20-15 to 18-17.
Green Papers - the authority for such things is here
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/NV-D
The link to this page
http://nvdems.3cdn.net/e3b45d0e6364295a6f_pqm6bnx3g.pdf
read middle of page 3.
Don't shoot the messenger.
Reddit is saying Bernoe wins Nev
10 PT swing went from Hillary 20-15 to Bernie 19-15.
"Religion is what keeps the poor from murdering the rich."--Napoleon
I actually wrote something
there that suggested that. It was before I read about the rule.
All of it is really complicated.
But I do think the best we can do is 18-17
Unfortunately, I believe you are correct.
I did an analysis downthread based on this statement in the Green Papers:
NV Dems phrases it differently:
While I like the greater degree of democracy, I prefer my final delegate count. Sigh.
If you plant ice, you're gonna harvest wind. -R. Hunter/J. Garcia
Nevada: Bernie Sanders delegates are being arrested because they
Nevada: Bernie Sanders delegates are being arrested because they refuse to switch to Hillary????
I am confused
I had a hard time hearing the video clearly, but I couldn't hear anything about arrests...except the title.
"I’m a human being, first and foremost, and as such I’m for whoever and whatever benefits humanity as a whole.” —Malcolm X
This would be awesome if true.
But does anyone think the MSM will report it?
What will Harry Reid do NOW? n/t
"We'll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American public believes is false." ---- William Casey, CIA Director, 1981
Retire? For the
Season?
Forever?
"Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable." - JFK | "The more I see of the moneyed peoples, the more I understand the guillotine." - G. B. Shaw Bernie/Tulsi 2020
Well, we can always hope.
Twain Disciple
what a frikkin crazy process.
what a frikkin crazy process.
looks like they still have to go another round in May to solidify this?
Crazy, yes.
They go by precinct, if a Bernie delegate isn't there, they go to the first Bernie alternate, and so on. In our county, there were 15 Hillary delegates missing, and only 4 Hillary alternates, so they ended up 11 short. Bernie's side was only 2 short (there were about 10 missing out of 53, but 8 alternates filled in.)
If we had filled all of the Bernie spots and still had alternates, those people would have been promoted as delegates (in place of the missing Hillary delegates), and would have retained their ability to vote for Bernie. I suspect this may have happened in Clark to get such a wild swing in numbers.
If you plant ice, you're gonna harvest wind. -R. Hunter/J. Garcia
Didn't Ron Paul take advantage of that
to "win" Iowa over Rick Santorum back in 2012? Santorum got more votes, but the Paul people got their asses to the county conventions and got named as delegates. At least that's what sticks in my mind.
At the Clark County convention more (will try to update)
More here:
I imagine the site that has no name...
...but rhymes with Daily Cross must be aflame.
Hahahahahhahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha!
Gëzuar!!
from a reasonably stable genius.
Doesn't rhyme with
Daily Cross. Rhymes with Daily Dose.
Daily dose of Soma I imagine
...
Gëzuar!!
from a reasonably stable genius.
I am thinking there are lots of Xanax being popped
In the Team Hillary locker rooms this morning.
"I used to vote Republican & Democrat, I also used to shit my pants. Eventually I got smart enough to stop doing both things." -Me
Or Daily Gross
Or Daily Dross
The earth is a multibillion-year-old sphere.
The Nazis killed millions of Jews.
On 9/11/01 a Boeing 757 (AA77) flew into the Pentagon.
AGCC is happening.
If you cannot accept these facts, I cannot fake an interest in any of your opinions.
He used to say it rhymed with "rose"
So maybe "daily hose."
Stay on track. Stay in lane. Don't throw rocks.
N/t as in blows
“The longer we dwell on our misfortunes, the greater is their power to harm us”
― Voltaire
I thought it was a nickname.
mar-COS nicknamespelled to KOS
Could be wrong though
It's very
distinguished, innit?
Bleah. The privilege even drips off his fookin' name...
What the ...
"Despite the concerns, the campaigns are optimistic about the convention and remain hopeful that at least some of the delegates, who aren’t bound to vote for the candidate they caucused for in February, could switch sides."
clark/">http://lasvegassun.com/news/2016/apr/01/smooth-sailing-or-political-malf...
Wow. Is this just a "Nevada thing"?? Lordy ...
"Long term: first the rich get mean, then the poor get mean, and the rest is history." My brother Rob.
Answered my own question ...
Apparently it is the same in Iowa. This is from the results for their county conventions on March 13th:
(Bolding mine.) How ... very ... undemocratic ...
"Long term: first the rich get mean, then the poor get mean, and the rest is history." My brother Rob.
More info on Washoe County
Washoe was already a Bernie Win
Bernie 54.2% / Hillary 45.7%
Bernie got 55.7% of the delegates at the county, so no real gain there...
I'm the only person standing between Richard Nixon and the White House."
~John F. Kennedy~
Economic: -9.13, Social: -7.28,
Thousands turn out for Clark County Democratic Convention
Thousands turn out for Clark County Democratic Convention
Sanders gets more delegates than Clinton
http://www.ktnv.com/news/thousands-turn-out-for-clark-county-democratic-...
so I think they did a recount
so I think they did a recount (realignment?)
https://twitter.com/meganmesserly/status/716419732853764097
trying again
okay I dont know how to embed it here, sorry!
Click the three dots..
select "Embed Tweet", copy/paste embed code.
Not a recount. A new vote
None of Hillary's people showed up. They think they are going to take the whole state. woot.
"Religion is what keeps the poor from murdering the rich."--Napoleon
Normally I would say that this is kind of a shaky way to win...
But after the "English only" bullshit and who knows what other crap Hillary pulled in other states like Mass., I am rooting this onward and upward!
Karma.
It sucks,
it's undemocratic, and it was probably put in place to silence those lazy hippies and kids.
I don't feel one bit of guilt that their game backfired on them.
If you plant ice, you're gonna harvest wind. -R. Hunter/J. Garcia
There's a bit more here
at jackpineradical: http://jackpineradicals.org/showthread.php?7999-Bernie-delegates-are-get...
Sounds like a mess, but it also sounds like Bernie is winning more delegates -- and maybe the state?
Hell is empty and all the devils are here. William Shakespeare
Another explanation
Link: http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/NV-D
Las Vegas TV: "Sanders gets more delegates than Clinton"
From 13 Action News (Las Vegas, NV):
Sanders gets more delegates than Clinton
Not sure what to make of this all.
But something looks good to me.
"If I should ever die, God forbid, let this be my epitaph:
THE ONLY PROOF HE NEEDED
FOR THE EXISTENCE OF GOD
WAS MUSIC"
- Kurt Vonnegut
There was an attempt to arrest and remove
some Sanders delegates, and there's a video which has a Hillary delegate linking arms w/them.
I wonder if some Hillary dels didn't like the heavy-handed tactics and flipped.
I know I sure as hell would.
#NoBrownshirtTactics
Not for anything.
"More for Gore or the son of a drug lord--None of the above, fuck it, cut the cord."
--Zack de la Rocha
"I tell you I'll have nothing to do with the place...The roof of that hall is made of bones."
-- Fiver
That should flip the state...
http://lasvegassun.com/news/2016/apr/02/sanders-wins-most-delegates-at-clark-county-conven/
I'm the only person standing between Richard Nixon and the White House."
~John F. Kennedy~
Economic: -9.13, Social: -7.28,
Wow. And the crowd goes crazy
Final delegate count Clark county Nevada. Bernie Sanders Wins Nevada!
That is mighty sweet...
Go Bernie!
Boom!
Love that! Yesssss!
Here's the rules
nvdems.com
I didn't read it yet.
Best I not summarize.
You all can read and I got dinner waiting.
Hope this helps.
With their hearts they turned to each others heart for refuge
In troubled years that came before the deluge
*Jackson Browne, 1974, Before the Deluge https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7SX-HFcSIoU
:-) Yes, it does look good!
The YUUUUUGE crowds tell me that the majority of the people felt disenfranchised with the first results that gave the state to Hillary, and that the majority of the people there today are Bernie supporters who are refusing to go along to get along with the first results (as we've been instructed to do with "vote for the lesser of two evils because" for several election cycles) and they WILL have their voices heard..., and make sure the majority of delegates are Bernie supporters.
Being forced to accept the status quo for many election cycles (or being dictatorially told to, or told to vote for the lesser of two evils) can turn the ordinary Harvey Milquetoast (or Harriet Milquetoast) types into angry voters who WILL make sure they get their way when a decent candidate comes along and says all the things so many of us have wanted to hear for so long..., and now we have a chance to elect someone who CAN, if elected, get something done that will benefit We the People instead of the profit-mongering corporations, banks, religious rightwingnuts, Wall Street, who have been robbing us blind for so long.
There is a light at the end of the tunnel, and it does not seem like another train coming at us.
Rock... meet Immovable Object....
I believe in an America where the separation of church and state is absolute ..., where no church or church school is granted any public funds or political preference. — President John F. Kennedy, Houston, TX, 12 September 1960
Bernin Up In Sin City...
I'll take that string of pearls from ya baby...
What else have ya got?
I'm the only person standing between Richard Nixon and the White House."
~John F. Kennedy~
Economic: -9.13, Social: -7.28,
Delegate math - high altitude pass (EDIT: Never mind!)
Well, I think this analysis is wasted. See upthread, it seems caucus results hold for the state convention, but PLEOs and At-large are determined then. This would make it B17:H18. Still a pretty good day, but not as great as I thought.
It's pretty labyrinthine, but it appears that we caucus in congressional districts, attend county conventions, then go back to CDs for the State Convention. Which wouldn't be too bad, except that parts of Clark County are in 3 of the 4 districts. I can't seem to find reliable statewide results, but I've seen results from 3 counties: Clark, Washoe, and Humboldt. From these, I'm going to try to extrapolate statewide. I want to emphasize that this is an estimate of where we stand today, and the final result is up to us getting our butts down to Vegas. If we do that, our advantage can only grow, and we'll be sending a Bernie dominated delegation to Philly.
Ok, so The Green Papers has the Feb 20 caucus results thusly:
NV-01: HRC 2.65, SBS 2.35 (B2:H3)
NV-02: HRC 2.74, SBS 3.26 (B3:H3)
NV-03: HRC 3.16, SBS 2.84 (B3:H3)
NV-04: HRC 3.52, SBS 2.48 (B2:H4)
PLEO: HRC 2.63, SBS 2.37 (B2:H3)
At-Large: HRC 3.69, SBS 3.31 (B3:H4)
Total: B15:H20
My best guess on the state of the race after todays county conventions:
NV-01: (5 delegates) Downtown Vegas, Clark County. With the Clark County flip so substantial, it seems a no brainer to break this 5 delegate district the other way: B3:H2. There's no way for this district to get to 4:1, judging by the Clark Co. results.
NV-02: (6 delegates) Washoe County only went to 3.35:2.65, but adding Humboldt gets us to 3.39:2.21. With the other northern NV rural counties more similar to Humboldt than Washoe, 3.51:2.49 is within reach. If not this round, then at the State Convention when Hillary's supporters are even more discouraged. Let's keep this one at B3:H3 for now.
NV-03: (6 delegates) Parts of Clark Co. are in this district, but even with a significant flip, we're not likely to get to the 3.51:2.49 level we need. B3:H3
NV-04: (6 delegates) This is a huge district, but the Clark Co population dominates. Hillary got a 4:2 break by a slim margin here, so we're at least gaining one. Again, it seems unrealistic to get over 3.5 in district 4, so let's stick with the B3:H3 split.
PLEO: (5 delegates) With Clark and Washoe reporting, there aren't enough delegates outstanding to flip this back to Hillary, so this one breaks the other way: B3:H2
At-Large: (7 delegates) Same logic as PLEO, B4:H3
County Convention Totals: B19:H16
Remember District 2 may yield another +2 net once everything is counted in Vegas. None of the other counts look likely to change without some serious shenanigans. Bottom line:
Bernie hasn't won Nevada, yet. But he does have the lead, and has gained 8-10 National Delegate equivalents overall!
Pretty good day, for a state that everybody thought was decided!
If you plant ice, you're gonna harvest wind. -R. Hunter/J. Garcia
Thanks for that analysis.
First rule of winning..
SHOWING UP!
Yay Bernie
Orwell was an optimist
The Obama teams drilled this into our heads back in 2008
In the caucus states, it wasn't about just the original election; it was also about the county and state conventions. They specifically sought out people who had the time and the means to go the distance. With Hillary having people on her staff who had won two prior Presidential elections, how did they miss this basic of nuts-and-bolts campaigning?
My state of residence, Maryland, has a closed primary, but, again, there's a nut-and-bolts aspect to that type of election as well: we directly elect delegates, as well as candidates. Each candidate's delegates are on the ballot, with whom they support given in parentheses below. The Obama staffers trained volunteers to remind voters to cast a full ballot, and vote for Obama's delegates as well as the candidate himself.
I'm thrilled that Bernie has people around him who know the difference. It may not swing the state into the W column, but picking up 5 delegates, when the pledged delegate difference is down to close to 200, certainly helps.
littlevoice
We can only hope...
That complacency in the Hillary Campaign will allow similar delegate gains to be made in other states, and higher level conventions wherever possible...
One thing for sure as hard as Bernie has had to battle for every delegate gained, there isn't a single delegate that will be taken for granted...
As for Hillary... Easy Come Easy Go...
I'll confess I was over on GOS doing a bit of a dance in the end zone and a spike of the football...
In a mild mannered way...
I'm the only person standing between Richard Nixon and the White House."
~John F. Kennedy~
Economic: -9.13, Social: -7.28,
VOTE WITH YOUR FEET IN NEVADA!
What happened in Clark County on 4-2-16 also happened in 2008 to
some degree. Hillary started out with 50.82% to Obama's 45.09% of
the pledged delegates going to County Conventions.
Coming out of the State Convention Obama had 14 pledged delegates.
Hillary had 11 pledged delegates.
She had about a 5% lead then; 'bout the same as this election cycle.
-Then along came the miracle of Clark County.-
Is there a reason for this anomaly? How about this scenario? You
are a female employee of the Strip casinos. You work in house-
keeping. You are Hispanic or from the Philippines. Your boss lets
you go to one of the Caucus locations on the Strip on company
time. You are under pressure to caucus for Hillary. You caucus and
you are pressured to be a delegate. You are resentful of the peer
and employer pressure. Comes time to go to the County Convention
and you balk. “Screw this shit! If somebody asks, I'll tell them my
car broke down.” You don't go…. You vote with your feet. They
stay firmly planted at home.
Is this improbable?? I don't think so.
What's to learn from all of this? The state party should have
learned after two failures that pressure tactics will backfire every
time. Slow learners, I guess….
I was at the Nye County Convention. Not being a delegate or an
alternate, I just rode along to see old friends and former Nye
County Central Committee members from years ago. The
number of delegates for Bernie increased by ONE going
forward to the State Convention after the Alignment. Not a
big change, but helpful anyway.
manhattantony