Poll Diving – part 6
So, less than a week out, where are we?
As a refresher, here's where we were at this point in 2016
Trump: 260 ECV (FL and NC had closed for Trump)
Clinton: 248 ECV
Potentially dodgy: NV (6 ECV)
Too-close to call: NH (4 ECV) and PA (20 ECV)
What wasn't on the pollsters nor my radar was MI (16 ECV) and WI (10 ECV). Those 26 ECV were in Clinton's count of 248. In retrospect it's easy enough to see that Trump had four opportunities to get those last ten ECVs and he was working all of them as hard as he could.
Trump: 180 ECV
Biden: 239 ECV
Not close and imho have solidly closed: MN (10) WI (10)
Close, Trump lean: IA (6) OH (18)
Although nothing has been heard from the Des Moines Register (did they trash their rep with their Democratic primary shenanigans?), put those into the totals and it's
Trump: 204 ECV – needs 66
Biden: 259 ECV – needs 11
Outstanding: AZ (11), FL (29), ME CD-2 (1), NC (15), PA (20)
Why the polls may be somewhat more accurate this time is the very high number that have voted early and will use a mail-in ballot. Thus, the polls reflect what a high percentage of people have done instead of what they plan to do.
My sloppy fudge factor for Florida has been to spot the Republican candidate one and a half to two percentage points (depending upon how much enthusiasm can be seen for the candidates). (For NC I've been using two and a half points.) So, if the polls have it as 47.5% R and 4.57% D, my calculation would be 49% to 47.5%. This obviously doesn't work if there's a late enthusiasm break for either candidate as there was in 2000 for Gore.
Curiously, many of the FL polls have Biden at 50%, which tends to indicate a break point for a candidate, particularly if there are any 3rd party candidates polling above 1%. Not being inclined to put FL in the Biden column (my bias), I drilled down on one poll: StPetePolls
This pollster clearly made an effort to get a representative sample of FL voters. Doesn't mean they succeeded but they tried. They also limited the questions asked of respondents with nothing controversial or threatening in them. Finally, the sample size of 2,527 is large.
The sampling results:
u/d-won't say: 1.8%
The u/d-won't say is small in this sample. Assuming they vote, it would have to break 92% for Trump and 8% for Biden for Trump to win. Trumpsters will claim that all the u/d-won't say will vote and are for Trump. That would be unusual but possible.
However, these are the nuggets, imo, in this poll:
Already voted: 60.3%
Vote by mail: 8.5%
Vote in person: 31.2%
Vote preference by political party (% of respondents):
Democrat (37.6%): voted: 70.4%, mail-in 8.9%, in-person 20.8%
Republican (39.5%): voted: 51.5%, mail-in 7.5%, in-person 41.0%
Independent (23.0%): voted: 59.1%, mail-in 9.5%, in-person 31.4%
Candidate preference by party:
Democrat: Trump 12.3%, Biden 84.2%, other 2.1%, u/d won't say 1.4%
Republican: Trump 82.9%, Biden 13.7%, other 1.5%, u/d won't say 1.9%
Independent: Trump 43.6%, Biden 51.7%, other 2.1%, u/d won't say 2.6%
Already voted (AV) vs plan to vote PV) by candidate:
Trump: AV 39.3% PV 59.6%
Biden: AV 58.2% PV 34.8%
other: AV 1.4% PV 2.65%
u/d-w/s: AV 1.1% PV3.0%
The election day GOTV hurdle is much higher for Republicans and Trump voters than for Democrats and Biden voters. That seems to be different from past patterns in FL.
In AZ, OH Predictive Insights hasn't published the crosstabs as StPetePolls did. What they did reveal is consistent with the FL pattern:
“six in ten respondents said they had already cast their ballots”
“less than one quarter (23%) of the voters who had not already cast their ballots said they were waiting to do so on Election Day”
“In an unusual breaking of tradition, it appears that most Democrats have already returned their ballots while many Republicans are waiting to do so closer to Election Day. “
Have Democrats sussed out the fact that election day polling resources disproportionately targets them for suppression?
In a mirror image of 2016 when Trump needed just one more (or NV and NH), now it's Biden that needs just one more and PA is a smidgen from being closed in his favor.
What's your projection for the outstanding states and ME CD2?