Thanks to Trump, there'll be no more cdc updates from me.

This will be the last one because, despite contentions that cdc data was "worthless", Trump was so afraid of it that he's undermined medical science during a pandemic for political purposes.

The Trump administration has ordered hospitals to bypass the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and send all Covid-19 patient information to a central database in Washington beginning on Wednesday. The move has alarmed health experts who fear the data will be politicized or withheld from the public.

The new instructions were posted recently in a little-noticed document on the Department of Health and Human Services website. From now on, the department — not the C.D.C. — will collect daily reports about the patients that each hospital is treating, the number of available beds and ventilators, and other information vital to tracking the pandemic.

Wording is so important and the NYT's is adept at supporting a false narrative even as they report the truth. The article states that medical experts "fear" the data will be withheld from the public and it's only if you read further down (which is uncommon behavior for many right wingers) that you see this:

But the Health and Human Services database that will receive new information is not open to the public, which could affect the work of scores of researchers, modelers and health officials who rely on C.D.C. data to make projections and crucial decisons.

The Trump administration is trying to paint this as streamlining government and improving the reporting of Covid 19 related data. But that's not what the instructions have to say.

the instructions to hospitals in the department guidance are explicit and underscored: “As of July 15, 2020, hospitals should no longer report the Covid-19 information in this document to the National Healthcare Safety Network site,” the C.D.C.’s system for gathering data from more than 25,000 medical centers around the country.

Needless to say, scientists at the CDC were shocked and concerned.

“Centralizing control of all data under the umbrella of an inherently political apparatus is dangerous and breeds distrust,” said Dr. Nicole Lurie, who served as assistant secretary for preparedness and response under former President Barack Obama. “It appears to cut off the ability of agencies like C.D.C. to do its basic job.”

“The whole thing needs to be scrapped and started anew,” said Dr. Dan Hanfling, an expert in medical and disaster preparedness and a vice president at In-Q-Tel, a nonprofit strategic investment firm focused on national security. “It is laughable that this administration can’t find the wherewithal to bring 21st-century technologies in data management to the fight.”

So the cdc will no longer be a reliable source of data. In fact, with this new move by Trump, there will be very few remaining reliable sources of scientific data.

Unsurprisingly, this comes just as the cdc data finally shows the death toll is rising. (And the same people who denied the downward trend in mortality that was an accepted fact by the scientific community will now instantly accept that there is a rise from the same data source they previously attacked).

This final update from the cdc shows that the death toll is climbing. Given about a three week lag between actual infection and death, this indicates that about three weeks ago, the virus began to bounce back.

The new cases are being seen mostly in the younger population.

In some cases, as shown on these state graphs, there is no correlation between raising restrictions and a rise in new cases.

Young people were the ones protesting. But there's no correlation between the protests and the number of new cases on a state by state measure.

Yes, California had 3.1 million protestors and Texas had 1.1 million, but New York had 1.7 million and they're not seeing a new rise. Meanwhile, Florida only had 377 thousand and they're being hit hard. Colorado had more protestors than Florida and you can see the difference in how the virus has spread in those two states:

Compare that with Colorado above.

But in California, Texas and Florida, cases are rising rapidly. Why the difference? The Youth population. Those three states happen to be the exact same states that accounted for over half the nations population increases in the last decade.

California, Florida, and Texas made up a combined 27 percent of the U.S. population in 2015 but accounted for 48 percent of U.S. population growth between 2014 and 2015, according to new Census Bureau estimates.

(A) key factor driving population growth in California and Texas is their relatively young populations relative to many other states. Having a young population creates population momentum through a large number of births relative to deaths. Between 2014 and 2015, California and Texas registered more than twice as many combined births (902,000) as deaths (443,000), resulting in the addition of 459,000 people through natural increase.

And there's another reason California, Texas, Florida (and New York) have such youthful populations:

The key to the relatively youthful populations in California and Texas—and to a lesser degree, Florida—is immigration, especially from Latin America. While the U.S. population as a whole is aging rapidly as the large cohort of baby boomers reaches retirement age, some states have become “fountains of youth” by attracting immigrant workers—many of whom start families after they arrive in the United States. Between 2014 and 2015, California, Florida, and Texas had a net (combined) increase of 412,000 international migrants, mostly from Latin America. California had the largest net increase in international migrants among the 50 states, followed by New York, Florida, and Texas.

And as we've seen, race plays an important role in the death toll from Coronavirus.

Research from the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) shows that if we only looked at where BAME communities were concentrated, we might expect to see higher death rates than that for white British individuals.

Black African Brits face 'triple' virus death rate

However, the research says that this geographical factor is counter-balanced by the factor of age. Most minority groups are much younger on average than white Britons - and therefore should be less susceptible to the virus. The IFS concludes that, if we look at both geography and age combined, the death rate should be lower for most ethnicities than for white people....
...It concludes that:

Black people are 1.9 times as likely to die as white people
Bangladeshis and Pakistanis are 1.8 times as likely to die
Indians are around 1.5 times as likely

Analysis from Public Health England (PHE) showed that once in hospital, people from BAME backgrounds were also more likely to require admission to an intensive care unit.

BAME people accounted for 11% of those hospitalised with Covid-19 but over 36% of those admitted to critical care. Separate research has found that South Asian people were the most likely to die from coronavirus after being admitted to hospital in Great Britain. The study, which looked at nearly 35,000 Covid-19 patients in 260 hospitals, said high levels of diabetes was partly to blame.

Hmmm, Covid just happens to be attacking the very populations that Trump and his followers despise and now Trump is moving to hide the data.

From the Plan for a New American Century, the Neocon Holy Grail, page 60:

advanced forms of biological warfare that can “target” specific genotypes may transform biological warfare from the realm of terror to a politically useful tool

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Comments

https://www.theatlantic.com/newsletters/archive/2020/07/coronavirus-deat...

Thank you for providing this new narrative based on the newest data. I think, however, that you could have skipped that little snide remark.

The new mask mandates coming out every day will hopefully make a difference. There has to be some other source that we can look to to see if those mandates have an effect.

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"Without the right to offend, freedom of speech does not exist." Taslima Nasrin

shaharazade's picture

@Fishtroller 02 Was it ever reliable? So much misinformation it's hard to tell whats real and not. This whole hot mess is just a mind blow. Too much data not enough real information from anywhere reliable. So much fear being pumped via the net. No where to run no where to hide baby. Pol tics are useless they are basically extortion. Vote for our side cause were not quite as terrifying. BS. You all suck and are so sick. Voting is now down to extortion vote Biden or else. Forget about it. What a strange world we live in. Nothing is real.

Always wondered what it would have been like living in every freaking scary time through out history. Now I know. So forget it. No way. Let it rip as though there is any hope in voting or believing what these fuckers who rule the world have to say. Gimmie a break you data cruncher's. How about some humanity, planetary overview or even some cause and effect. It's all related not separate. Stop breaking all this hot mess into weird categories like BLM, to so called 'far leftist's' to whatever they decide peple who oppose this shit are.

Getting involved in politics is a waste of time. Who gives a shit when things get this corrupt and fuked up? Not me. I let it go. Hard to do but man what choice do you have if you look at whats going down. Fear is a mind killer and never again will I fall prey to it. Biden? Yeah right. Better or worse? Whi knows who cares. Enough is enough.

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janis b's picture

@shaharazade

"Too much data not enough real information from anywhere reliable". The parallels you draw to the unreliability, the polarising and often misleading effects of political and other polling is brought to mind - yes or no, do or don't, sweet or sour ... etc, etc. How does it all contribute to thinking for oneself?

"What a strange world we live in. Nothing is real.” It’s so weird to witness the disconnect from the self and reality that exists. The virus in itself is intimidating, and the panic serves only to reinforce negative conditions. There's so much more to consider and make decisions with.

Thank you for your expressiveness.

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Cant Stop the Macedonian Signal's picture

@shaharazade

I was just nodding to myself and moving on, but then thought it might be a good idea to let you know. Smile

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"More for Gore or the son of a drug lord--None of the above, fuck it, cut the cord."
--Zack de la Rocha

"I tell you I'll have nothing to do with the place...The roof of that hall is made of bones."
-- Fiver

mimi's picture

@shaharazade
Make America Sane Again or Make America Sane and Sozialist Again. Oh well, if it ever was, otherwise drop the 'again'.

may be not.

“I became insane, with long intervals of horrible sanity.”
― Edgar Allan Poe

Mark Twain
“Sanity and happiness are an impossible combination.”
― Mark Twain

Let it all go. I am happy to see you are still kicking. All the best insanity for you to hang on to. Smile

Peace and love. Why not?

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1 user has voted.

Awaken people to how caught up in left vs right reactionary reflexiveness they get.
We all do it. It gets used against us.

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Pricknick's picture

@Battle of Blair Mountain
I've sat on the sidelines more or less and watched the total shitfests that have manifested from your diaries.
Entertaining and depressing at the same time.
I guess my only question is:
Do you still believe that covid is just going to go away?

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Regardless of the path in life I chose, I realize it's always forward, never straight.

@Pricknick @Pricknick @Pricknick one day the spanish flu went away? As in one day the Hong Kong flu went away? Or go away like flu season goes away only to come back, year after year after year?

I don't know. I only know that rightly pointing out - as all medical science then agreed - that the death toll from the virus was still trending downward despite the George Floyd protests should be a positive, not a cause for everyone to start a total shitfest. They have themselves to blame for their knee jerk reactions. People were in left vs right mode both mentally and emotionally and it showed.

Many times I said we have to wait and see. And now that we're about to, Trump wants to blind us. But we will still see, I am sure. Cdc isn't the only source of data. It just takes a bit more time, but there are people already doing it. So we shall see.

There was much to learn just by looking. Will the curve upward resemble New York? Why is New York flat lining instead of seeing even a small increase after 1.7 million protestors and population density? And now, there's a cover up.

That raises questions too. Everything has come true in the PNAC. Pearl Harbor event. Invade Iraq. Proxy war with Syria. Next was designer viruses, aimed at minorities. And that's what we're seeing. A virus that targets minorities. Perhaps that's just mother nature's tough luck or perhaps it's not. I don't know.

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@Battle of Blair Mountain

"And the same people who denied the downward trend in mortality that was an accepted fact by the scientific community will now instantly accept that there is a rise from the same data source they previously attacked)."

You made a vague and unsubstantiated pre-judgement of how the readers will react. Not very scientific!

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"Without the right to offend, freedom of speech does not exist." Taslima Nasrin

travelerxxx's picture

I fail to see how the change in data acquisition - and subsequent suppression - improves the situation for the American people. Certainly, it appears to be purely politically motivated. Frankly, I can't imagine even the most fanatic Trump supporters being happy about this. Maybe I'm wrong, but none I've spoken with are in favor of it.

On a somewhat related note, I give Dr. Fauci about a week until he joins the ranks of the unemployed. If he continues to speak out, it seems a given.

Thanks for the update, BoBM.

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"The new mask mandates coming out every day will hopefully make a difference. There has to be some other source that we can look to to see if those mandates have an effect."

I would not count on mask wearing to have any real effect. The cloth masks and disposable surgical masks available to most of the public offer little or no protection against the spread of the virus. Further, there was much mask wearing in Hubei, China, when the original outbreak occurred, and that did not prevent the virus from spreading there. Here's a link to a comprehensive article on mask effectiveness, or lack thereof: https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/04/commentary-masks-all...

The reason why we did not see increased outbreaks of Covid in NYC after the George Floyd protests was because NYC had already achieved herd immunity for all practical purposes. There have been several scientific studies that have shown that blood tests for anti-bodies in people who have been exposed to the corona virus only detect such anti-bodies 20 percent of the time. So, to get the true exposure of a given population, you have to multiply the blood test data by 5X. (see link: https://swprs.org/coronavirus-antibody-tests-show-only-one-fifth-of-infe... ) In the case of NYC, anti-body blood tests show about 20 percent exposure, which means actual exposure to the virus is 100 percent or close to it.

Finally, we need to be aware that the current data we have regarding both new cases and deaths from the virus are unreliable. The definition of the number of “cases” of infection keeps changing. In the U.S., at the beginning of the pandemic, only sick people entering hospitals got tested for the virus, and so were counted as cases.

Now, PCR testing for the presence of active virus has become widely available, as has serological anti-body testing, for determining who has been exposed and developed some immunity. I got both tests myself, just by going into a walk-in medical center. (I tested negative for both.) All of these tests are now counted as “cases”. Further, in many states, if someone is tested more than once, each test counts as a separate case. (Some employers require regular testing of their employees.) And, people going into hospital for other conditions--say they broke their leg--are also tested, and if they happen to show up with a positive result, even if they have no symptoms, they count as a Covid19 case too.

You would expect these changes in testing and reporting to result in an explosion of “confirmed cases”, and that is exactly what has happened in the U.S. And I’m not making any of this up--the CDC notes all this stuff on their web site. But major newspapers like the NY Times, and other major media outlets, do not give us this context. Instead we get scary headlines about how cases are going through the roof, etc. This has been the pattern for the mass media; they keep promoting fear, probably because it sells.

Then there is the death rate. You would think this would be simple--someone gets the virus and dies from it, and it is reported as such. But it is not that simple. As Dr. Deborah Birx told reporters at a White House press conference, we (and the UK and many other countries) have a very “generous” policy when it comes to reporting deaths. If someone tested positive for the virus and then dies, they are counted as a Covid19 fatality, even if Covid19 is not what killed them. You can die with the virus, or you can die because of the virus--both get counted as Covid19 deaths. And further, if you died with symptoms that appear to be Covid19, but have not been tested for the virus, doctors are instructed to enter Covid19 as the cause of death on the death certificate.

We have not done this kind of thing for other diseases, for obvious reasons. The policy for counting Covid19 deaths was instituted in most Western countries at the beginning of the pandemic. Those few brave doctors who have been willing to speak out, in multiple countries, have pointed out how this distorts the Covid death figures, how it results in far more deaths being attributed to the virus than is warranted. Are we told about this by the major media? Nope.

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for posting these.
Different perspectives can change the view.

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Ya got to be a Spirit, cain't be no Ghost. . .

Explain Bldg #7. . . still waiting. . .

If you’ve ever wondered whether you would have complied in 1930’s Germany,
Now you know. . .
sign at protest march

RantingRooster's picture

as the end all be all for the authoritative source of COVID data, which, it hasn't been, EVER! To even think for one second, that the CDC has not been corrupted by political influence or captured by industry, is just beyond irrational at this point. It's just "magical thinking".

Your totally unsubstantiated claim "This virus is going away" based on flawed CDC data, and a haphazard analysis, have proven to be worthless bullshit. Your "narrative" has changed quite a bit from your OP. Glad this shit is over!

Bless your heart and have a nice day!
Drinks

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C99, my refuge from an insane world. #ForceTheVote

Deja's picture

I have a co-worker whose nextdoor neighbor (and also her paternal aunt) was covid19 positive and died "of pneumonia". It happened Tuesday of this week. The state stats have not added her death yet.

I had read elsewhere, prior to the co-worker's aunt's death, that some places were not counting deaths as covid19 related if they could blame it on something else, even though, were it not for being covid19 positive, the person likely wouldn't have suddenly developed the "official cause of death".

Just like insurance companies won't pay for "rising water" damage even though, were it not for the hurricane, the "storm surge" would not have occurred -- no hurricane = no "storm" surge but no claim paid for the hurricane caused water damage, and hope you have flood insurance.

Similar, with covid death counts is what I read and wonder if it's happening. Though, other than a reverse pissing contest, I don't understand the reasoning behind it.

I don't know where to look for a cross reference between pneumonia deaths from Jan-June 2018/19 and the same time frame in 2020, but I wonder if there is a substantial increase this year. Same with strokes due to the description by medical professionals of the blood of covid patients as being like a slick sludge. If so, it could explain the lower death rates. But we also saw a decrease of patients being put on a ventilator and blowing up their lungs too, so maybe that's it.

As for the protests, whether they be anti-lockdown, anti-mask or anti-police brutality, if they really did not cause an increase in infection, then that bolsters the theory that The Rona is aerosolized. Aerosols tend to linger indoors much more so than outdoors. I suspected as much back when there were so many cases trapped on floating petri dishes, also known as cruise ships. (Airplanes and war ships/submarines too, imo but we don't get to hear about those very much.)

The shit is in the air, but is much more quickly disbursed outside than inside. The CDC actually has covid19-related guidelines for HVAC system alterations in order to possibly increase "fresh" air circulation in an effort to decrease the likelihood of lingering funk that could spread throughout the building otherwise. They also recommend leaving doors and windows open after a contamination in order to flush the air.

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Unabashed Liberal's picture

'how' protests affected the surge in numbers, there's conflicting information regarding that topic.

Pushed right now, but will swing back by and post a couple of pieces that take the view that there is some correlation in some places.

The problem is that many Governors have politicized the data. For instance, you mention that the data for New York didn't reflect much of a surge. Of course, they where under one of the longest lockdowns in the nation. Plus,

De Blasio Tells Covid Contract Tracers Not to Ask Positive Cases If They’ve Attended BLM Protests

Tobias Hoonhout, June 15, 2020, 9:43 AM

New York City’s coronavirus contact-tracing force are not asking those who test positive for COVID-19 whether they recently attended a Black Lives Matter demonstration, a city spokesperson confirmed.

“No person will be asked proactively if they attended a protest,” Avery Cohen, a spokesperson for de Blasio, told THE CITY about the directive. “If a person wants to proactively offer that information, there is an opportunity for them to do so.”

Of course, it's dicey at best to even attempt to contact trace a protest--who the heck even 'knows' all the throngs of people that they've been standing by?

Not to mention that Dr Deborah Birx (COVID-19 Task Force) advised Governors in a telcon (several weeks ago) that the positive effect/efficacy of wearing a mask at a protest--or any gathering, for that matter--is negated by yelling, chanting, loud talking or singing, etc.

BTW, contact tracing conducted by some police departments have shown a definite correlation in the spike in their (cops') cases, following protests which they had to attend/work. The Houston TX Chief Of Police even held a press conference to call that fact to the attention of citizens, not long before the ongoing/recent massive outbreak there.

Then, there's the 'expert' conclusion that Mardi Gras was a major and/or precipitating cause of the horrendous outbreak of COVID in New Orleans (earlier in the year). Having attended Mardi Gras parades in both NO and Mobile, can attest to not knowing hundreds/thousands of fellow attendees. So, never doubted that the experts' conclusion was likely correct in that instance.

Anyhoo, IMO, if one is truly concerned about not catching COVID, it'd be best to avoid all public gatherings--at least, for a while. (I'm not one who has a lot of faith in the vaccines, alone; hoping that decent therapeutics will soon be developed to treat COVID.)

Thanks for all the info that you've been bringing here. Clapping Can't always log in, but, try to read it all. Smile

Mollie

"The leaders of this new movement are replacing traditional liberal beliefs about tolerance, free inquiry, and even racial harmony with ideas so toxic and unattractive that they eschew debate, moving straight to shaming, threats, and intimidation."
~~Matt Taibbi, The American Press Is Destroying Itself, June 12, 2020

"I know, I know. All passion; no street smarts."
~~Captain West, 1992 Rob Reiner/Aaron Sorkin Movie, A Few Good Men

“If there are no dogs in Heaven, then when I die, I want to go where they went.”
~~Will Rogers, Actor & Social Commentator (1856-1950)

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Everyone thinks they have the best dog, and none of them are wrong.