Monday cdc update: what's apparent and what isn't.

Here is the cdc's latest update:

Here is the data taken at each weekly update for the past five weeks (I didn't have access to a screen shot so I had to write down the first weeks data.

Week ending June 13th:
4-11: 15670
4-18: 16309
4-25: 14051
5-2: 11575
5-9: 10591
5-16: 8543
5-23: 6388
5-30: 4996
6-6: 3114
6-13: 804

June 20th:

June 27th:

July 4th:

So what can we see from this data? Well, this is going to be hard for some people to swallow, but the data shows that the cdc fell behind in updating their database on the week ending July 4th and made a huge push to get caught up across the board this past week.

Let me explain how this is apparent:

Let's say we want to know how many weeks it takes for the cdc to get caught up to the death toll figures within, say 4%. Look at the week ending figures for June 20th compared to the week ending figures for June 13th. The death toll for April 11th went from 15670 to 15693, and increase of 0.15%. Less than a sixth of a percent. So we can figure that the cdc has gotten pretty close to the final death toll for April 11th. More will keep coming in, but it's within 4% of the final total. By the same token, when you look at April 18th, the death toll increases by 0.21%, a little over one fifth of one percent. You have to go down to May 9th to see the death toll increase by more than 1% at 1.21%. That was going back 6 weeks from the post date of June 20th.

This bears out on the week ending June 27th as well. After about six weeks, the totals barely budge by one percent or less. After four weeks, the death tolls only increase by single digit %'s.

And then we have the week ending July 4th. No doubt many people took some holiday time and it shows. April 11th increased by 0.02% a very small number. April 18th increased by 0.04%, also extremely low. The death tolls across the board barely budged at all. Even by My 30th, the death toll was increased by a mere 0.78%, five weeks after the update, when one expects to see a rise of at least 2 or 3%. June 6th, four weeks after the update, the death toll has risen a measly 2.48% when 5 or 6% was the norm.

That indicates that people fell behind in their counting the week of the national holiday. So we would expect the database to get caught up to date the next week and lo and behold, that's exactly what we do see:

April 11th surges by 1.86% An increase of 292 deaths when the entire increase in the death toll for that week had only increased 49 deaths in the previous three weeks total. April 18th saw an increase of 3.18%, an increase of 521 deaths when the April 18th numbers had only increased 65 deaths in the previous 3 weeks total.

And so on, down the board. May 2nd really stands out as the most recent update added 1247 new deaths where they had increased the death toll by only 143 in the three weeks prior. So the cdc got rapidly caught up this week and had fallen behind the most the week before.

Which puts the week ending July 11th into a better perspective. 137 deaths is obviously not even beginning to tap into the actual total, but it is much higher than the 71 reported to start off last week on July 4th. It's less than the initial 157 reported the first week of June 27th and way down from the initial 804 reported deaths the week they first reported June 13th.

This small bump was only a bounce back in accounting as the cdc is getting caught up. the holiday weekend had an impact on the week before's accounting, but nothing shows an increase yet in the death toll from the coronavirus. Based on the amount I see increasing across the board, I'd say the cdc personnel probably have not been at full strength for at least the past three weeks and really understaffed last week. It looks like it's all hands on deck this week, however, as we see them getting on top of bookkeeping going many weeks back.

We can see that the overall weekly death toll is trending downward still. One only has to go back five weeks on each report to the point where 96% of the total deaths have already been reported to see the downward trend continues.
On June 13th, the death toll from 5 weeks prior (May 9th) was 10591
June 20th, we can see the death toll from May 16th was 8723 (today it is 8930, still well below the totals for May 9th)
June 27th, the death total for May 23rd was 6779. To date it has only reached 6929.
Looking five weeks back on the update on July 4th, the May 30th total was 5681.
And on todays latest update, looking back to June 6th, we see that there are only 4596 deaths.

10591>8723>6779>5681>4596.

That's a steady downward trend of the death toll being @ 81% of what it was the week before. That's what we can see with over 96% of the numbers in.

That's enough information to tell us about the impact of the massive George Floyd riots. There wasn't any. Deaths continued to trend downward at the same rate as previously.

I don't care to use the numbers for the past five weeks in any report because they vary the most wildly. There are, however a couple of patterns that have held true even in those opening weeks. The second week sees the highest increase in the death toll of any week of data collection. That's a function of the clerical reporting process. The other thing that can be seen is the downward trend holds true pretty solidly from the third week out.

So even as this weeks death toll of 137 for July 11th exceeds last weeks opening death toll of 71 and this weeks july 4th death toll of 469 exceeds last weeks June 27th death toll of 464, the rest of the weeks show a definite downward trend despite the effects of the holiday weekend.

So to summarize: The 4th of july weekend threw a small wrench in the accounting totals, but there is no visible impact of the George Floyd uprising nor has there been a visible impact on the death toll from states reopening.

Putting this in perspective: On June 13th, the cdc said 3114 people had died the week ending June 6th, just the week before. Today, the cdc has the total death toll for the past three weeks at only 1969.

And still some people are going to insist this is an increase.

Covid spread, pregnancies and the week the virus peaked.

Now I'd like to talk about something I brought up last April. The peak of this virus was the week ending April 18th. That was the deadliest week. That was also the week this article came out:


A surprising number of pregnant women delivering babies at two New York City hospitals tested positive for COVID-19 without showing symptoms, according to a new study.

The findings suggest that the true rate of COVID-19 infection in the city overall could be much higher than thought.

In the United States, people are generally tested for COVID-19 if they have serious symptoms, and so exactly how many people have the disease is unclear.

These were not patients coming in because they have symptoms or are afraid. These were pregnant women. 15% tested positive (33 of 215). Of those 33 positive testers, only 4 showed any symptoms.

This study suggests that in hot spots like New York City, the level of #COVID19 exposure … could be high," Scott Gottlieb, former Commissioner of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, posted on Twitter on Monday (April 13). "Not the 50%-66% needed to confer herd immunity, but much more than 10%.

So as fearmongers try to immobilize you by constantly hammering home how cases are rapidly rising let's not forget that we never had a handle on how many people were exposed to begin with, it could have been as high as 15% of the populace at it's peak. And now, with greater testing than ever before, we are finding more and more people test positive.

That doesn't mean the pandemic is getting worse. It just means you'll have to wait in line longer to get tested.

The problem is that labs running the tests are overwhelmed as demand has soared in the past month.

Dr. Temple Robinson, chief executive of Bond Community Health Center in Tallahassee, Fla., said ...“We are all drinking through a fire hose, and none of the labs was prepared for this volume of testing,”

This volume of testing.

So let's stop pretending that the media narrative isn't all about fearmongering by hollering about increased rates of people testing positive. That's to be expected when the demand for testing has soared in the past month. We don't know how many people would have tested positive the week ending April 18th.

We just know less people are dying each week, and that's a GOOD thing.

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https://www.forbes.com/sites/tommybeer/2020/07/07/more-than-40-hospital-...

Despite Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis seeming to downplay the severity of current coronavirus outbreak in his state, the numbers tell a different story; as of Tuesday morning, 43 hospital intensive care units (ICU) in 21 Florida counties have hit capacity and show zero beds available, while another 32 hospitals show ICU bed availability of 10% or less, according to the Agency for Health Care Administration (AHCA).

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@Mickt https://www.sun-sentinel.com/coronavirus/fl-ne-coronavirus-icu-bed-repor...

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ovals49's picture

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“Unthinking respect for authority is the greatest enemy of truth.”
Albert Einstein

@ovals49 @ovals49 They are putting people in ICU beds to recover who don't need intensive care.

As someone who grew up around RN's amd Drs, I can tell you hospitals (capitalist for profit hospitals that is) make their living on elective surgeries. Filling up the ICU while freeing up other rooms has two purposes. Profits and it keeps whole wings from becoming quarantined.

Oh wait, you were making a lame attempt at an ad hominem attack by inferring I'm some right wing conspiracy whacko.

Not cute, pathetic.

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snoopydawg's picture

@Battle of Blair Mountain

As more and more hospitals publicly report that their ICU beds are full, the state changed its guideline for tracking who is in its ICU beds — a change that will mask the true number of people in Florida’s intensive care units as the state struggles to keep pace with the coronavirus pandemic.

Why?

Some hospitals in the state may be using their ICU beds for non-critical-care coronavirus patients — people who need isolation but don’t need the most intensive level of care. And late Tuesday, at least a half-dozen South Florida hospitals had filled their ICU beds.

To ensure hospitals are not overwhelmed, Florida’s Agency for Health Care Administration Secretary Mary Mayhew has repeatedly said the state needs to keep a close eye — in real time — on how many ICU beds are available regardless of how sick the people are in those beds.

But now, instead of reporting the number of COVID-19 patients occupying ICU beds, the Department of Health wants hospitals to report only the number of COVID patients in those beds who are receiving ICU-level of care. The change could reduce the number of occupied ICU beds being reported to the state.

“The Department of Health has heard hospitals are utilizing a portion of their ICU beds to specifically house and isolate patients with positive cases of COVID-19, including those that do not require intensive care. This change in wording was made to more accurately capture the number of COVID-19 patients receiving intensive care,” Florida Department of Health spokesman Alberto Moscoso said.

If you are on a phone and can't excerpt the article can you at least let us know what is in it and why we should read it please. I rarely click on just a link without any commentary on what is in it or why I should click it. I did in this case to see what is being done. I see that you did in your follow up comment.

I just think this is common courtesy. Others may disagree and that's fine. I feel the same with videos. I rarely click on them without given a reason why I should.

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"It is remarkable that a sitting president would express less than complete confidence in the American democracy’s electoral process."

Hillary: "I'd be president today if Comey, Bernie, Bros and Putin hadn't stolen it from me."

@Battle of Blair Mountain link to article about covid death in FL

From that article:
Florida set a new record for coronavirus deaths Tuesday, one of several metrics that show the state’s coronavirus crisis is still getting worse, even as Gov. Ron DeSantis claimed at a news conference Monday afternoon that the state’s situation had “stabilized.”

Florida is now one of the main contributors to the surge in U.S. cases, and new cases in the state are surpassing even what New York had reported at the pandemic’s height there in March and April. The state was one of the most aggressive in its economic reopening, but all bars in Florida have been ordered to close once again. Unlike many other states with a spike in cases, though, DeSantis has not mandated mask-wearing statewide and ignored questions about a mask mandate at the news conference Monday.

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Testing has so far not kept up with the virus' spread. During the past three weeks, cases increased by 127% and tests increased by 63%. Of known test results from last week, 19% have come back positive, meaning there is not enough broad testing and the virus is widespread.

https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/local/arizona-health/2020/07/13/ari...

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@Mickt declining death toll.

These are not mutually exclusive facts.

Your point?

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gulfgal98's picture

@Battle of Blair Mountain @Battle of Blair Mountain Spreading virus and declining death tolls can differ due to several factors. First, death tolls lag considerably behind reported positive tests. For many, the second week of the virus symptoms is more severe than the initial several days. Then there are the long term effects of the virus upon those who experience it. For example, Broadway actor Nick Cordero, who was only 41, died from COVID-19 a full three months after being diagnosed.

Second, in the case of Florida, the median age of those diagnosed has been dropping statewide over the last month or so. Younger patients have a better chance of long term survival than do elderly or compromised patients. However, even though they are young and have a significantly higher survival rate, they can pass it on to those who are at risk.

We cannot even begin to determine the long term effect that COVID will have on our populations based upon today's numbers. But what we can see is the trend upward of diagnosed cases and that should be a cause for grave alarm. Just look at Florida.

One last thing. Any death from COVID due to our lack of taking precautions, both personally and at the governmental level is one unnecessary death. If our govt. had responded properly in the beginning and had made real people and true small businesses whole like many other industrialized countries, we would not even be debating this issue.

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"I don't want to run the empire, I want to bring it down!" ~ Dr. Cornel West

“Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable." ~ President John F. Kennedy

Anja Geitz's picture

These kind of essays began with the following statement:

“I am not qualified to analyze this data, yet I will do so anyway”.

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There is always Music amongst the trees in the Garden, but our hearts must be very quiet to hear it. ~ Minnie Aumonier

@Anja Geitz n/t

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mimi's picture

@on the cusp
honest question, English so difficult for me.

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“Trauma is not what happens to you.
Trauma is what happens inside you,
as a result of what happens to you.”
— Dr. Gabor Maté

Raggedy Ann's picture

@mimi
When someone says, "oh, snap!" That means they just understood the concept; the light bulb just came on inside their head. Does that help you understand?

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"When will our conscience's grow so tender that we will act to prevent human misery rather than avenge it?" Eleanor Roosevelt

"The secret of change is to focus all your energy, not on fighting the old, but on building the new." Socrates (469-399 BC)

mimi's picture

@Raggedy Ann @Raggedy Ann
to comment on any of this. My lightbulb just exploded in my head and all went dark. Wink

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“Trauma is not what happens to you.
Trauma is what happens inside you,
as a result of what happens to you.”
— Dr. Gabor Maté

@Anja Geitz how cute.

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thanatokephaloides's picture

@Anja Geitz

“I am not qualified to analyze this data, yet I will do so anyway”.

Why is BBM not qualified to analyze this data? (S)he came to a conclusion you don't agree with?

?????

Note: Lack of university-issued credentials is not an answer to my question.

Thank you in advance!

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"I say enough! If Israel wants to be the only superpower in the Middle East then they can put their own asses on the line and do it themselves. I want to continue to eat."
-- snoopydawg

Anja Geitz's picture

@thanatokephaloides

he came to the conclusion that the virus was going away. I sent his essay to a family friend who analyzes scientific data for a living and he did not concur with the OP’s conclusion of the data.

When I mean qualified, I mean someone who analyses scientific data professionally, instead of what we have in this essay. Someone unqualified to make these assertions, and in doing so spreading incorrect information about a deadly virus on this site.

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There is always Music amongst the trees in the Garden, but our hearts must be very quiet to hear it. ~ Minnie Aumonier

@Anja Geitz is incorrect.

I somehow doubt your claims you had an expert opinion side with you. You'd be stumbling over yourself to point out the flaws.

Instead, you make ad hominem attacks and provide no substance to your assertions other than endlessly repeating I am wrong.

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Anja Geitz's picture

@Battle of Blair Mountain

and it’s on the rest of us to spend ten times the amount of time pointing out where you’re wrong? You are so down the rabbit hole in your pseudo -certainty that no matter what “evidence” ANYONE brings you’ll just keep coming back, again and again, again, with more convoluted responses. That’s what people like you do.

As to your comment about my “untruthful” claim, apart from finding that a bit amusing, it think it says a hell of a lot more about you, then it does about me.

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There is always Music amongst the trees in the Garden, but our hearts must be very quiet to hear it. ~ Minnie Aumonier

@Anja Geitz . What exactly in your imaginings are "people like me"?

Ad hominem reply because you CAN'T refute the data.

This isn't about opinions. These are data points.

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Not Henry Kissinger's picture

@thanatokephaloides
is a classic rhetorical fallacy and typically the last refuge of someone with little else of substance to offer.

There's an inherent elitism in such faux-arguments, as only self-interested technocrats are deemed worthy of an opinion, and therefore the diktats of the professional managerial class should be unthinkingly followed by the rest of us who are unqualified to even question, let alone comment.

Reminds me a lot of this sketch.

Mother (giving birth): What should I do?

Doctor: Nothing dear! Your not qualified!

Bottom line: the credibility of statistical analysis depends on the analysis itself, not on the sheepskin of the person making it.

Or to quote Carl Sagan:

One of the great commandments of science is, "Mistrust arguments from authority."

Too many such arguments have proved too painfully wrong.
Authorities must prove their contentions like everybody else.

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The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?

gulfgal98's picture

@thanatokephaloides that one of the reasons we are here is to be able to express our opinions. And those of us who disagree with the writer's opinions can also do so, which I have done in a comment above. I am not an expert, nor are any of us here, but we do have critical thinking skills and I think it is very important to use those critical thinking skills. So while I do not agree with the writer's conclusions, I welcome the opportunity to express my own reasons for doing so.

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"I don't want to run the empire, I want to bring it down!" ~ Dr. Cornel West

“Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable." ~ President John F. Kennedy

Stop spreading this crap around.
I hope you get banned from this site for spreading dangerous misinformation.
No Joke!

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@jbob is that what you truly think? You might want to think a little longer on that.

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@Battle of Blair Mountain I don't run this site. If I did you would already be gone!

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Raggedy Ann's picture

is the universe is in charge. This intelligent virus was sent to us by The Source to reform, transform our society. We are moving to the fifth dimension of consciousness so all the data in the world is meaningless. We are being required to STOP! When we don't STOP, the virus surges to show us who is in charge of what's going on every single day.

The universe is in charge and we will not see forward movement until 2021.

In fact, I might get banned from this sight for spreading such heresy!

Live in the present and live in love, everyone - that's the secret! Pleasantry

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"When will our conscience's grow so tender that we will act to prevent human misery rather than avenge it?" Eleanor Roosevelt

"The secret of change is to focus all your energy, not on fighting the old, but on building the new." Socrates (469-399 BC)

Lookout's picture

Speaking in absolutes about this virus is a mistake IMO.

What I'm seeing in the data is a slight increase in deaths especially in some states. As you know deaths lag behind cases. The US isn't a monolith, so we need to look at regions. However two reasons deaths aren't exploding is younger folks are the primary ones being infected and there are better treatments.

deaths_0.png

Sources: State officials and NBC News

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“Until justice rolls down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream.”

@Lookout and your point about younger folk getting the virus is true.

They've always been getting the virus, however, not just now.

And the death toll is still decreasing even as it continues to pop up regionally.

Now, to get away from left vs right let us remeber that on this forum it is recognized that the fight is the 99% vs the 1%.

We recognize the media is 100% controlled at all times by the 1%.

Why is it so hard, therefore, to recognize the media is hyping the fear and ignoring the positive?

And why, in this of all places, are people attacking anything that refutes the media narrative?

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Lookout's picture

@Battle of Blair Mountain

we are over reacting. However a consistent message to wear masks and socially distance is lacking. It is my personal view that staying outside, wearing masks when inside, and socially distancing all the time (except for your household) will solve this mass pandemic. Why isn't that message being put on the MSM megaphone? I've also suggested it is because profit is the goal.

This ain't rocket science IMO.

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“Until justice rolls down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream.”

gulfgal98's picture

@Lookout

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"I don't want to run the empire, I want to bring it down!" ~ Dr. Cornel West

“Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable." ~ President John F. Kennedy

enhydra lutris's picture

@Battle of Blair Mountain

populace with a false dichotomy? Cui bono?

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That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --

mimi's picture

won't help any reader of this site. Stop analyzing the un-analyzable. Try to live and survive day by day, stop reading too much and try to find in nature something that you still can enjoy. If nothing enjoyable natural is accessible to you, close your eyes and imagine it.

I wish eveyone of you, the best luck out there to any individual person.

I once believed in science and professionalism. I don't anymore. For the time being these things are byegone. Let's wait what comes out of it. And don't harm this site with behaviour which I remember was regulated to a truly a minimal dagree. But those rules have been trampeled on for quite some time. Not so good. Don't let JtC sigh too often. Sighing people, I have plenty of sighing around me. It's enervating to listen to it. Make JtC happy. Donate to the site, if you still can.

Be good. Be well, be safe and try not to lose hope. I mean it.

I respect and admire the attempt to go through all those data. I don't try anymore to make a judgement about them. In the end to me personally it is not important if I die because of the virus or just get sick of the virus or simply die by some other causes. The symptoms of the sickness are bad enough. We die anyway one day of something. You just have to accept your death as something that surely will come. Let's concentrate to make death as painless as possible. Til that end comes, make the best of living fully as much as you can.

Cheers.

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“Trauma is not what happens to you.
Trauma is what happens inside you,
as a result of what happens to you.”
— Dr. Gabor Maté

The rate of infections.... the rate of deaths... BOTH are unacceptable whether going up or down. And until we have a nice little pill or a vaccine without side effects to look to, all the science points to masks.

And by the way, Battle of Blair should NOT be censored for his/her diaries on this topic. They have drawn out some good information from the responses, and forced many to look up more information. In other words, BoB has us thinking.

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"Without the right to offend, freedom of speech does not exist." Taslima Nasrin

gulfgal98's picture

@Fishtroller 02 As the resident anti-censorship burr under the saddle here, I thank you for saying this. Clapping

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"I don't want to run the empire, I want to bring it down!" ~ Dr. Cornel West

“Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable." ~ President John F. Kennedy

snoopydawg's picture

@gulfgal98

which was the first city and county to close down because of how many people were getting infected, sick and dying. I called when I arrived and stayed ii my car when they were ready to see the nurse came out to wave me in.

Then I drove around looking for lunch and every person was wearing a mask. People standing around in groups were masked and most of the stores were open. But in my local store here in Ogden it was less than half of them doing it. This is not just a political issue here, but one of freedom. A few even say that the government cannot mandate masks or to order businesses to shutdown. Ah living in a red state

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"It is remarkable that a sitting president would express less than complete confidence in the American democracy’s electoral process."

Hillary: "I'd be president today if Comey, Bernie, Bros and Putin hadn't stolen it from me."

You certainly do not deserve the crap responses and negativity you are receiving for your efforts in posting this material. Some people obviously have a problem with good news and believe that the MSM and whoever is pulling their strings could have no ulterior agenda in pushing unremitting negativity.

Maybe one of those qualified could interpret this chart and explain to us illiterati how it shows Sweden's incredibly shortsighted failure to lock down leading to a predictably disastrous outcome.

Sweden Covid death v. prediction.png

“People who pride themselves on their "complexity" and deride others for being "simplistic" should realize that the truth is often not very complicated. What gets complex is evading the truth.”

― Thomas Sowell, Barbarians inside the Gates and Other Controversial Essays

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@Blue Republic @Blue Republic As Sweden’s Covid cases drop, top health expert says the country’s strategy was misunderstood

It would be easy to read his statements and say he's trying to save face but I think that doesn't give him the credit he is due. Right now it looks like his strategy failed, he seems to partially agree, but we can't know. Like "Covid is going away", it sure doesn't look like it but we'll eventually know.

Stay safe until then. Nothing else is important individually and collectively. No?

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@vtcc73

in saying it's too early to tell whether Sweden's strategy has failed, nevertheless their deaths have been declining since April.

In any case, people seem to be all over the map in defining what constitutes "success"in dealing with the epidemic.

Certainly fewer deaths and a lowered mortality rate would be desirable, as would mitigating the sequelae that some previously infected people are experiencing from the virus - as well as from medical intervention (damage from ventilators, for example).

But a more encompassing (wholistic?) definition would also be taking into account such matters as the mental/physical/financial impact of lockdowns versus non-lockdown and overall cost of treatment - to what extent expensive hospital stays and expensive drugs are averted by cheaper outpatient treatments, for example.

By such a broader definition and over a longer time line, Sweden's approach may well be successful than many others'.

So, if/until COVID goes away, I/we should...?

Stay safe until then. Nothing else is important individually and collectively. No?

Well, appreciate the sentiment. While not disregarding safety considerations, I think I will prioritize staying engaged and alert to other threats that, in the long run may be far more damaging than the virus will likely turn out to be.

In your face authoritarianism implemented under cover of, or under the rationale of dealing with COVID could very well be more deadly and long-lasting than the pandemic itself.

Anyhow, I guess I've already survived at least four significant pandemics already so maybe am good for one more.

Government and the media being this focused on keeping our attention on COVID-19 suggests that we should be giving serious consideration to just what it is they are trying to keep out attention *from*.

Cheers,

Republica Azul

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@Blue Republic I'll get back to that later.

Thanks for your concise explanation of of how you see recent events with respect to Covid. I understand and appreciate everything you say although I don't necessarily agree. Some is nuance and small differences but some is more pronounced. None of what you're saying is a surprise or is something I haven't considered. I wish I had the time today to reply in detail. I think there is common ground on which to build a useful conversation.

I did see your post earlier but was crazy busy all day and tomorrow is shaping up as a repeat. So let's start with my opening sentence. Briefly, I think that people are so confused, scared, and have been abused so badly for so long that they don't know what to think or what is valid. They trust nothing and nobody. Think what that does to our ability to sort through complex information and situations that most have no basis for understanding. The lens through which they're looking at their world, themselves, is just as confused which makes it highly suspect for accuracy. If we accept nothing than what's rattling around in our heads we're in serious trouble if we don't have a framework for righting ourselves. I see lots of signs of that on these pages. Let's leave the specifics alone for now.

My entire adult and professional life has been in an often chaotic environment where there are no entirely right answers and little accurate information to help find answers. I thrive in this environment through lifelong training and experience. I've got a framework for dealing with these situations and I still get banged around. In general I start with an assumption, choose a course of action, execute the plan, reevaluate, change my assumptions and rinse/repeat. Knowing how to set priorities helps too.

We are still in the triage phase with Covid. Priorities are different and don't always seem logical or fair. In other situations what needs to be done would be considered cruel. When I look at what the medical, scientific, and public health communities are approaching the pandemic I see consistency with how triage is structured.

Anything that threatens lives is the priority and the greater the threat the greater the priority. I feel for those who are forced to choose between a normal live doing a job, a dangerous health risk, and their economic well being. I don't have that problem, now, but I've been there before without the serious disease threat. It's scary. At the same time I know that as long as I'm alive there is possibility. Keeping people alive is the focus right now and it will cause problems everywhere else.

Had the US not approached the pandemic the worst possible way, there's a good chance the triage phase would be ended or at least well on the way to ending and priorities could change. Instead, the pain will continue and the damage will be far worse. We can argue the specifics of how to proceed another time. We will disagree but the reason is different perspectives from different experiences.

Here's a different perspective: US expat living in Germany Read it considering why her experience and viewpoint is different from yours.

I had to laugh when I read your comment about authoritarianism. Nothing in the US is like the restrictions that people here and all over the world were under and, for the most part, complied willingly and still do. The reaction to the minimalist restrictions anywhere in the US is insane. Use the linked story to see if you can come up with reasons for a different reaction to the population. No, it has nothing to do with supposedly superior freedom or rights in the US. The author says it clearly in a few places.

This post is already way longer than I planned and ate into sleep I could use even though I didn't even get started. I'll end by saying that while most of us disagree with how this pandemic has been handled and how it should have been handled I don't think the differences are that great. The differences are no greater than the differences in us fueled by fear, confusion, and out of control emotion.

Take care and stay safe. Nothing is more important right now.

Forgive me if there are tons of errors in this post. I had to slap it up without editing.

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enhydra lutris's picture

behooves us as individuals not to join them no matter how much it might please us if specific other individuals did. Why the rate per hundred or thousand of either infected persons (numbers completely unknown) or total population (numbers better known) might or might not seem to be going down is a matter for speculation beyond the fact that humans are determining, transmitting, compiling, re-transmitting, aggregating and publishing the putative raw data. One thing we can be sure of it that one cannot draw valid statistical conclusions from ANY analysis of the data because it is not being collected using statistical methods.

Total population is an estimate, but probably a pretty good one.

We have absolutely no reasonable basis for even trying to estimate both past and present numbers infected and ergo infection rates

We can, at the town or hospital or county level draw reasonable estimates of only the lower bound on deaths, and only deaths directly caused by the virus' attack on physiological functioning for those dying from it under certain circumstances.

All else is simply speculation, so let us not get too adamant and dogmatic in our claims.

The Precautionary Principle, for those who adhere to it, dictates things like social distancing and masks though some will assert that such activity is dangerous because it will wreck our already terminal economy.

be well (or not, as you see fit) and keep it civil. Any of us could die or become totally and permanently incoherent from any of a vast number of causes at any instant, so try to behave as though each moment might be your last, because it damn well could be.

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15 users have voted.

That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --

studentofearth's picture

same and we have to make choices in our real-time enviornment.

CDC number are highly important, because they are the official numbers that will be used to justify government policies and responses to Covid. I have not been following the CDC site and appreciate them showing up on this site.

Exchanging differing opinions brings different ways view the collected data from CDC and various source. Ironically different scientific specialties will look at the same data set and come up with various summaries. Ideally the exchange would bring understanding how to utilize multiple methods of data collection and differing ways to analyze for specific questions.

I don't have to agree with someone else's opinion to have it expand my understanding of a subject. More likely to read and review various research articles not agreeing with my viewpoint. It improves critical thinking and decreases automatic compliance do to group think.

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10 users have voted.

Still yourself, deep water can absorb many disturbances with minimal reaction.
--When the opening appears release yourself.

Censorship and banning for most things is not the answer to anything but dividing people. The best for all of us is to let BoBM post in peace and solitude. Especially solitude.

Since I read the first in the Covid is going away series I've been trying to decide if this was offered in good faith or something else. The technique used is classic Gish Gallop. For those unfamiliar with Duane Gish's famous technique, from Effectiviology:

The Gish gallop is a rhetorical technique that involves overwhelming your opponent with as many arguments as possible, with no regard for the accuracy, validity, or relevance of those arguments.

It's often used to win a debate or argument but is also commonly used by those who simply want to be right. I wanted to be sure before taking a position. This did it:

Instead of actually pointing out what
@Anja Geitz is incorrect.

I somehow doubt your claims you had an expert opinion side with you. You'd be stumbling over yourself to point out the flaws.

Instead, you make ad hominem attacks and provide no substance to your assertions other than endlessly repeating I am wrong.

Numerous people have tried to do just that but here we are on the third(?) essay where every offered counter has been outright rejected or ignored. That is not how someone who has a purpose of discussing his position acts. It is the way someone who wants only to be right and win acts.

It is a divisive. But only if we continue to play the game.

Please, do what you want but there is no useful purpose to continue to engage. Whatever BoBM's purpose is, it is best to allow him/her to continue to post in peace without our input. He has made up his mind, he's right in his own mind, and doesn't want anything we have to offer. Why give it to him?

This series of essays is an amatuer effort compared to this one from a few days ago in our expat daily: Are you waiting for a second Covid-19 wave?

There's so much more wrong despite decent writing. Same flaws, same Gish Gallop, same people who couldn't resist chiming in. My wife got involved but her purpose was to needle a couple of the biggest idiots. I don't agree with stirring the pot but she's honest about it. Besides she's doing all of us a service if something she said keeps them at their keyboards and not out getting and spreading the disease. Unsurprisingly, most of them don't go out and do wear masks when they do. That says everything I need to know about their character.

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Anja Geitz's picture

@vtcc73

... you are a better person than I am.

Whatever BoBM's purpose is, it is best to allow him/her to continue to post in peace without our input.

Because his insistence on spreading his UNQUALIFIED and inconclusive interpretation of facts” is really pissing me off. It’s one thing to have these kind of dubious claims made about the things we usually argue about around here. But this is entirely different because it can potentially have the effect of convincing someone to be less careful in taking pre-cautions out there.

I am not in favor of outright censorship. But I also do not believe letting him recklessly post this information “in peace” without refuting it is doing us all a service either.

It’s a bit of a conundrum and I imagine the hotly worded comments here are not making JtC none too happy either.

Edited to change wording

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2 users have voted.

There is always Music amongst the trees in the Garden, but our hearts must be very quiet to hear it. ~ Minnie Aumonier

@Anja Geitz @Anja Geitz @Anja Geitz @Anja Geitz We need to respect the person but there is no requirement to respect the beliefs, ideas, or conclusions of others. Besides there is no way to take them away from them even if that would be reasonable or just. It's not. Make your position clear and step away. And try not to let them live rent free in your head. It's so easy to live this way.

Edit: Let me add that there are no incorrect opinions. The facts and thinking supporting an opinion may be complete garbage but opinions are theirs like their feelings. Work on the facts and thinking if we want to change minds. The person will listen and consider what you offer or not. This person has said no. We are at an end of the discussion. Anything else is shouting at the wind.

We get respect by giving respect. We get love by giving love. It doesn't happen every time but the only environment it is possible is if we give. It is up to people to decide and act. We have no control over them and can only ever hope to control ourselves. Living like that is amazing but sometimes is amazingly hard with the hordes of infuriating people we encounter everyday. Refusing to engage is a conscious choice that leads to our having some chance for having peace. The choice is yours.

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6 users have voted.
Anja Geitz's picture

@vtcc73

Let me add that there are no incorrect opinions

Bad choice of words. I’ve edited to read “inconclusive interpretation of facts“. You are also right about bringing value to a situation. But sometimes, as the human beings we are, that is much more difficult to do in situations like this, than it is to agree on the concept. This poster has been unreasonable and obstinate to all the reasonable attempts at discussion. So, at this point I’m much more likely to react to the old adage “You earn respect”, because I’ve seen nothing of it here.

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3 users have voted.

There is always Music amongst the trees in the Garden, but our hearts must be very quiet to hear it. ~ Minnie Aumonier

@Anja Geitz @Anja Geitz I respectfully suggest that "You earn respect." is an admonition on choosing ones own actions. We earn respect by being respectful even when respect is not returned. We squander what we have earned when we reflexively reply in kind to provocation. It's difficult to not reply to provocation with provocation although we lose any possibility of resolving any differences when we do. Remember that if provocation is the other person's intent then we have lost as soon as we "lose it". They get what they want and you are no closer to your goal.

Take this situation for example. Since you and I have been having a conversation BoBM has taken another swipe at claiming to be aggrieved by an "ad hominem" attack. It is not his first claim to you or others. He is playing the victim. That suggests a need to be right and/or to provoke. Three essays and multiple examples in each suggests has no good faith interest in discussing the validity of his point of view on Covid but wants something else. Everything he writes says more about him than it says about either the validity of his point of view or those with whom he is in conflict. Listen to what he is telling you. It is the one thing I'm sure is completely honest. He seems most interested in being in conflict and provoking others. By replying in kind you give him what he appears to want. You haven't moved your purpose forward at all. He now has allies who agree that he has been wronged. Sometimes the best way to stop a war is to just stop fighting and step away.

I would also argue that your comment was not an ad hominem. Passive-aggressive with the intent of provoking bordering on aggressive-aggressive is closer IMHO. You're better than that. Frustration, though, has a way of bursting out when we don't think first. I'm susceptible to doing the same. I'm better at avoiding making this kind of error than I used to be. Someone once told me that he found that he never got in trouble by not saying something stupid. Me neither. I'd add angry, unkind, and several other things to stupid.

I think you know what the right thing to do for you is. Get out of your own way and do it.

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7 users have voted.
Anja Geitz's picture

@vtcc73

For your reasoned response. Would like to elaborate but can’t now. Will do so later privately.

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1 user has voted.

There is always Music amongst the trees in the Garden, but our hearts must be very quiet to hear it. ~ Minnie Aumonier

@Anja Geitz you've just made endless ad hominem attacks and claims you don't back up.

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2 users have voted.
enhydra lutris's picture

@Battle of Blair Mountain

there is an invisible teacup orbiting the earth. The argument from failure to refute is a classic fallacy known as argumentum ad ignorantiam. Assuming that the charts correctly reflect the data reported by the CDC as of the dates in question, they still do not necessarily imply anything you say that they do. They are snapshots of history and can tell us about conditions then, but not conditions today or tomorrow.

the data shows that the cdc fell behind in updating their database on the week ending July 4th and made a huge push to get caught up across the board this past week.

That's actually an assumption, a few of them. We know what data was posted, but not why that data was posted.

Let's say we want to know how many weeks it takes for the cdc to get caught up to the death toll figures within, say 4%. Look at the week ending figures for June 20th compared to the week ending figures for June 13th.

The whole exercise following this assumes that we now have perfect knowledge to within 4% of all of those prior periods. It also defines "deaths from covid-19" to be "only near term deaths directly attributed to covid-19", which is problematic for assorted reasons.

This volume of testing.

This doesn't and can't support anything, I'm not clear if it is intended to or not. We do no random testing. Certain classes of persons are repeatedly tested, and we know nothing about how much of the testing is such testing. We have good reasons to believe that testing does not cause the disease, hence more testing does not cause more disease. We do know that symptomatic people generally do get tested, so more testing would seem to imply more symptomatic people. Why thy are not all immediately dying on the spot is no doubt a complex question, but until there is random testing, the number of tests given is a red herring.

In short, there isn't much there to refute, even if anybody had a need to refute it.

It does appear, as you noted, that the BLM demonstrations caused no appreciable (measured) spike in covid-19 infections, but there isn't really solid grounds for assuming that it would. A lot of protesters wore masks. At least one study indicates that there was some social distancing being practiced. One would not expect symptomatic persons to join mass protests, and may not even asymptomatic persons (of good will) who had reason to suspect that they might have been recently exposed. Sadly, that tells us pretty much noting.

Presumably all of my commentary above will appear to be mere quibbles to you, but when you use the word "refutation" you are implying that there is a rigorous argument there to be refuted, and "the data clearly shows" pretty much always lacks rigor.

be well and have a good one.

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10 users have voted.

That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --

@enhydra lutris No hay nada mas. Move along.

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3 users have voted.

moot.

Why herd immunity won’t work for coronavirus

The author has impressive credentials. The first question that popped into my mind was how reliable are the antibody tests. I've not seen anything on progress in testing accuracy and reliability in awhile. My second thought was that I doubt this doctor would speak without having considered testing effectiveness.

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6 users have voted.

@vtcc73 for the long term.

If there is no herd immunity then eventually quarantine fatigue will set in.
Eventually quarantines will economically have to end.

If there is no herd immunity then postponing the inevitable is crushing the lives of hundreds of millions for nothing.

We will eventually have to take it on the chin.

And if there is herd immunity? What purpose the price of this quarantine then?

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3 users have voted.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/13/world/coronavirus-updates.html?action...

5.4 million lose their health insurance due to quarantine.

How many will die of that? More than or less than coronavirus?

How many collateral deaths due to quarantine will go uncounted while we delay the inevitable?

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Granma's picture

@Battle of Blair Mountain issue is with the lock downs. We cannot undo what has already happened. None of us are making those decisions. Do you know people badly affected by the past lockdowns. I do in my family. They are coping the best they can and glad things are opening up again.

At this point, closures seem to be a result of people not wearing masks and not observing social distancing resulting in virus cases going up. They are going up a LOT in many places in the US. That is a fact.

Another fact is that Covid 19 is a nasty disease, highly infectious, a serious illness for many of all ages, fatal for some, way too many.

I get my news about Covid primarily from scientists, researchers, Drs. treating people with the virus. I have carefully chosen the ones I listen to. I do not get virus information from the MSM.

What is it that you want to see happen? The best most of us here can do is be responsible about following scientific guidelines in order to protect ourselves and the people around us.

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ggersh's picture

@Battle of Blair Mountain had universal healthcare like the rest of the world.

The 546 in DC have it, why can't we?

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8 users have voted.

“Awesome! I always wondered what it was like to live during the times of the Civil War, Spanish Flu, Great Depression, Civil Rights Movement, Watergate, & the Dust Bowl. Not all at once mind you, but ya know, ‘beggars/choosers” and all.”

snoopydawg's picture

@ggersh

I love your sigline!!

“Awesome! I always wondered what it was like to live during the times of the Civil War, Spanish Flu, Great Depression, Civil Rights Movement, Watergate, & the Dust Bowl. Not all at once mind you, but ya know, ‘beggars/choosers” and all.”

Boy doesn't that sum up what we are living through.

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0 users have voted.

"It is remarkable that a sitting president would express less than complete confidence in the American democracy’s electoral process."

Hillary: "I'd be president today if Comey, Bernie, Bros and Putin hadn't stolen it from me."

enhydra lutris's picture

@Battle of Blair Mountain

we give them a pass on all of their responsibilities to the citizenry. Instead of bailing out the stock market and big businesses they should be bailing out the people.

Here's a modest proposal (apologies to Swift) Maybe they should all look into enlisting, the government has endless money for the military, they'd get health care, food and a paycheck.

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3 users have voted.

That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --

who appreciate your data and your insights and hope you will keep expressing them. I disagree with your conclusions, but I feel like you come by them honestly.

My basic feelings are that the pandemic was 100% foreseeable and even expected, but that an economic response was absent. We had no economic plan because our capitalist government doesn't think in those terms. They're totally capable of bailing out the banking system, but the workforce? No. Inconceivable.

So what I saw happen was the government of China LOCKING DOWN Wuhan, completely, closing airports, trains, buses, steetcars entirely. The governor of New York did not do that. Instead NYC, exactly the same population  as Wuhan, with 11 million people, had nearly 10 times as many deaths.

China has had 3 deaths per million in population, while we have over 400 deaths per million. We didn't take it seriously, and now we're arguing over how we can afford to deal with the consequences.

We're going to have to pay, one way or another. We're going to have to take care of everyone, and sacrifice some pleasure habits for a period of time, or we're going to become a failed state.

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RantingRooster's picture

but with CDC instead.

We've gone from

This virus is going away

to

We just know less people are dying each week, and that's a GOOD thing.

It doesn't take a stable genius, to figure out less death is good thing. It shouldn't take all that CDC data either.

Is the media hyping this beyond recognition of reason or rational thought?

Abso-fucking-lutely, it makes them damn good money. They don't give a shit whether we live for die. They can afford almost anything they want or need.

But this seemingly "religious belief" in the CDC data as the end all, be all, authoritative data source, to support your wild conclusion, which now has diverged from "this virus is going away" to "less death is a good thing", is, well, not rational at best.

I'm just saying...

Drinks

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7 users have voted.

"Men who look upon themselves born to reign, and others to obey, soon grow insolent; selected from the rest of mankind their minds are early poisoned by importance;" - Thomas Paine, Common Sense

dystopian's picture

We can see that the overall weekly death toll is trending downward still.

Certainly not in Texas: about half way down note the 'NEW deaths per day' graph:
https://apps.texastribune.org/features/2020/texas-coronavirus-cases-map/...

===

massive George Floyd riots

Are you speaking of the George Floyd protests? There were lots of those with many thousands of people. When did they become the 'massive G. F. riots? A few had some looting incidents, like those seen when a championship team's town goes nuts. Are those the George Floyd Riots you speak of? It sounds racist to me to call the George Floyd protests, the George Floyd riots. I have not heard the George Floyd protests referred to that way, but from you.
===

I don't care to use the numbers for the past five weeks in any report because they vary the most wildly.

Of course, that is how science works, you disregard anything that does not fit your narrative and pre-drawn conclusions. Great work Sherlock. Whenever numbers vary it means to throw them all out. Especially if they vary with what you are selling, which ain't science.
===

nor has there been a visible impact on the death toll from states reopening.

This is disingenuous at best. See the graphs at the Texas Tribune link above. The partial reopening started May 1, full reopening Memorial Day weekend, the current mortality uptick is likely that memorial day to fathers day bump. My guess you ain't seen nuthin' yet, just wait for the Fourth of July bump. The three states with the biggest issues now, FL, AZ, and TX, are all states that hesitated the most to close down, closed down the least, and opened the soonest.
===

So let's stop pretending

I sure wish you would. Stop pretending to know best, to be able to tease out the only truth whilst ignoring anything that does not support your propaganda. Stop petending to be helping us by saying there was no impact from states reopening whilst it is obvious there was great affect here in TX. See AZ as well.

The places doing best are those that were the most pro-active and took the most preventative action. Things are not great because our death rate is down, whilst it is a hundred times worse than a dozen other countries that live packed twice as close together as we do.

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7 users have voted.

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
Look deep into nature, and then you will understand everything better.
both - Albert Einstein