Monday cdc update: what's apparent and what isn't.
Here is the cdc's latest update:
Here is the data taken at each weekly update for the past five weeks (I didn't have access to a screen shot so I had to write down the first weeks data.
Week ending June 13th:
So what can we see from this data? Well, this is going to be hard for some people to swallow, but the data shows that the cdc fell behind in updating their database on the week ending July 4th and made a huge push to get caught up across the board this past week.
Let me explain how this is apparent:
Let's say we want to know how many weeks it takes for the cdc to get caught up to the death toll figures within, say 4%. Look at the week ending figures for June 20th compared to the week ending figures for June 13th. The death toll for April 11th went from 15670 to 15693, and increase of 0.15%. Less than a sixth of a percent. So we can figure that the cdc has gotten pretty close to the final death toll for April 11th. More will keep coming in, but it's within 4% of the final total. By the same token, when you look at April 18th, the death toll increases by 0.21%, a little over one fifth of one percent. You have to go down to May 9th to see the death toll increase by more than 1% at 1.21%. That was going back 6 weeks from the post date of June 20th.
This bears out on the week ending June 27th as well. After about six weeks, the totals barely budge by one percent or less. After four weeks, the death tolls only increase by single digit %'s.
And then we have the week ending July 4th. No doubt many people took some holiday time and it shows. April 11th increased by 0.02% a very small number. April 18th increased by 0.04%, also extremely low. The death tolls across the board barely budged at all. Even by My 30th, the death toll was increased by a mere 0.78%, five weeks after the update, when one expects to see a rise of at least 2 or 3%. June 6th, four weeks after the update, the death toll has risen a measly 2.48% when 5 or 6% was the norm.
That indicates that people fell behind in their counting the week of the national holiday. So we would expect the database to get caught up to date the next week and lo and behold, that's exactly what we do see:
April 11th surges by 1.86% An increase of 292 deaths when the entire increase in the death toll for that week had only increased 49 deaths in the previous three weeks total. April 18th saw an increase of 3.18%, an increase of 521 deaths when the April 18th numbers had only increased 65 deaths in the previous 3 weeks total.
And so on, down the board. May 2nd really stands out as the most recent update added 1247 new deaths where they had increased the death toll by only 143 in the three weeks prior. So the cdc got rapidly caught up this week and had fallen behind the most the week before.
Which puts the week ending July 11th into a better perspective. 137 deaths is obviously not even beginning to tap into the actual total, but it is much higher than the 71 reported to start off last week on July 4th. It's less than the initial 157 reported the first week of June 27th and way down from the initial 804 reported deaths the week they first reported June 13th.
This small bump was only a bounce back in accounting as the cdc is getting caught up. the holiday weekend had an impact on the week before's accounting, but nothing shows an increase yet in the death toll from the coronavirus. Based on the amount I see increasing across the board, I'd say the cdc personnel probably have not been at full strength for at least the past three weeks and really understaffed last week. It looks like it's all hands on deck this week, however, as we see them getting on top of bookkeeping going many weeks back.
We can see that the overall weekly death toll is trending downward still. One only has to go back five weeks on each report to the point where 96% of the total deaths have already been reported to see the downward trend continues.
On June 13th, the death toll from 5 weeks prior (May 9th) was 10591
June 20th, we can see the death toll from May 16th was 8723 (today it is 8930, still well below the totals for May 9th)
June 27th, the death total for May 23rd was 6779. To date it has only reached 6929.
Looking five weeks back on the update on July 4th, the May 30th total was 5681.
And on todays latest update, looking back to June 6th, we see that there are only 4596 deaths.
That's a steady downward trend of the death toll being @ 81% of what it was the week before. That's what we can see with over 96% of the numbers in.
That's enough information to tell us about the impact of the massive George Floyd riots. There wasn't any. Deaths continued to trend downward at the same rate as previously.
I don't care to use the numbers for the past five weeks in any report because they vary the most wildly. There are, however a couple of patterns that have held true even in those opening weeks. The second week sees the highest increase in the death toll of any week of data collection. That's a function of the clerical reporting process. The other thing that can be seen is the downward trend holds true pretty solidly from the third week out.
So even as this weeks death toll of 137 for July 11th exceeds last weeks opening death toll of 71 and this weeks july 4th death toll of 469 exceeds last weeks June 27th death toll of 464, the rest of the weeks show a definite downward trend despite the effects of the holiday weekend.
So to summarize: The 4th of july weekend threw a small wrench in the accounting totals, but there is no visible impact of the George Floyd uprising nor has there been a visible impact on the death toll from states reopening.
Putting this in perspective: On June 13th, the cdc said 3114 people had died the week ending June 6th, just the week before. Today, the cdc has the total death toll for the past three weeks at only 1969.
And still some people are going to insist this is an increase.
Covid spread, pregnancies and the week the virus peaked.
Now I'd like to talk about something I brought up last April. The peak of this virus was the week ending April 18th. That was the deadliest week. That was also the week this article came out:
A surprising number of pregnant women delivering babies at two New York City hospitals tested positive for COVID-19 without showing symptoms, according to a new study.
The findings suggest that the true rate of COVID-19 infection in the city overall could be much higher than thought.
In the United States, people are generally tested for COVID-19 if they have serious symptoms, and so exactly how many people have the disease is unclear.
These were not patients coming in because they have symptoms or are afraid. These were pregnant women. 15% tested positive (33 of 215). Of those 33 positive testers, only 4 showed any symptoms.
This study suggests that in hot spots like New York City, the level of #COVID19 exposure … could be high," Scott Gottlieb, former Commissioner of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, posted on Twitter on Monday (April 13). "Not the 50%-66% needed to confer herd immunity, but much more than 10%.
So as fearmongers try to immobilize you by constantly hammering home how cases are rapidly rising let's not forget that we never had a handle on how many people were exposed to begin with, it could have been as high as 15% of the populace at it's peak. And now, with greater testing than ever before, we are finding more and more people test positive.
That doesn't mean the pandemic is getting worse. It just means you'll have to wait in line longer to get tested.
The problem is that labs running the tests are overwhelmed as demand has soared in the past month.
Dr. Temple Robinson, chief executive of Bond Community Health Center in Tallahassee, Fla., said ...“We are all drinking through a fire hose, and none of the labs was prepared for this volume of testing,”
This volume of testing.
So let's stop pretending that the media narrative isn't all about fearmongering by hollering about increased rates of people testing positive. That's to be expected when the demand for testing has soared in the past month. We don't know how many people would have tested positive the week ending April 18th.
We just know less people are dying each week, and that's a GOOD thing.